Climate Refugee and Disappearing States： In Need for a New Legal Regime？

Climate change brings unprecedented challenges to both the international community as well as international law. For example, extreme weather conditions might cause States to disappear and force its populations to migrate. These phenomenon creates new challenges for current international law. First, under current legal frameworks, there is no provision regarding the disappearance of a State due to climate change. Second, for people who are forced to migrate due to climate change whether caused internally or internationally, current legal framework is also unclear to whether they could be classified as refugees and to what extent should they be protected. Despite these uncertainties, people of these endangered States cannot be left to fend themselves simply because there is a legal vacuum. This paper proposes a way forward for to meet this challenge and urge the international community to use this opportunity to refine the currently existing legal regime in order to solve the various challenges posed by climate change.

Evolution of seasonal land surface temperature trend in pond-breeding newt(Neurergus derjugini)in western Iran and eastern Iraq

Background Temperature,as one of the effective environmental stimuli in many aspects of species life and ecosystems,can affect amphibians in many ways.Knowing and predicting temperature change and its possible effects on the habitat suitability and movements of amphibians have led many researchers to use climate change scenarios and species distribution models(SDMs).One of the important remote-sensing products that received less attention of conservation biologists is the land surface temperature(LST).Due to the small difference between LST and air temperature,this component can be used to investigate and monitor the daily and seasonal changes of habitats.This study aims to investigate the seasonal trend of LST in the habitat suitability and connectivity of the critically endangered newt(Neurergus derjugini)in its small distribution range,using the MODIS LST time series(2003 to 2021)and with the help of SDMs,Mann–Kendall(MK)and Pettitt non-parametric tests.Results In the last decade,the increasing trend of LST versus its decreasing trends is obvious.Based on MK and Pettitt tests,in the winter and spring,with the decrease in latitude of 35.45°and increase in longitude of 46.14°,the core populations which are located in the southeast have experienced an increase in temperature.Considering the period time of breeding and overwintering,the continuity of winter and spring can be effective on the survival of adult newts as well as larvae in the microclimate.Linkages with the highest current flow between core populations in the winter and summer are the most likely to be vulnerable.At the level of habitat,the increase in LST is proportional to the trend of thermal landscape changes,and all seasons have had an increase in LST,but in winter and summer,the largest area of the habitat has been involved.By continuing the current trend,many high-altitude southern habitats in Iran will be endangered,and the species will be at risk of local extinction.Conclusion The increasing trend of temperature in all seasons such as winter will affect many adaptations of the species and these effects are mostly evident in the southern parts of its distribution range therefore,captive breeding and reintroduction are recommended for the populations of these areas.

Social impacts of the climatic shift around the turn of the 19th century on the North China Plain

Historical case studies of climate change impacts and the resulting social responses can provide analogies for better under- standing the impacts of current and future climate changes. Around the turn of the 19th century, the climate of the North China Plain experienced a shift from a relatively warm stage in the 18th century to a colder stage in the 19th century, which was characterised by a much colder climate and more frequent and severe floods and droughts. Historical information about refu- gees, social disorder, grain transportation, and disaster relief on the North China Plain in 1780-1819 is collected from the Ver- itable Records of the Qing Dynasty （a collection of official records）. The mechanism of climate change affecting the food se- curity of the society, as indicated by the development of a refugee problem around the turn of the 19th century, is analyzed by examining the social vulnerability. There are four basic findings： （1） In the 40 years from 1780-1819, the society on the North China Plain was unstable and characterised by a significant deterioration of the refugee situation. The number of refugees in- creased markedly, and their behaviour became increasingly violent. In the 1780s, most of the disaster victims chose to stay at their residences waiting for relief. From 1790 to 1800, hundreds of thousands of refugees migrated to northeast China. In the 1810s, the frequency of farmer rebellions increased sharply. （2） The increase in instability corresponded to the climatic cooling over the same time period. The increased instability was a result of the negative impacts of climate change accumulating and transmitting to the social level. （3） For food security, a precondition for the negative impacts of climate change on human soci- ety was the vulnerability of the regional socioeconomic system, which had a high sensitivity and low capacity to respond. This vulnerability could be described by the following three observations： O The regional balance of supply and demand for food was in a critical state, which led to a high sensitivity and dramatic reduction in yield that was caused by climate change; （~ the capacity for disaster relief efforts by the government was too low to meet the needs of crisis management; （~ the capacity for refugees＇ resettlement in eastern Inner Mongolia and northeast China, which both border the North China Plain, was se- verely restricted by climatic conditions or the quarantine policy. （4） It is estimated that climate change caused the social vul- nerability to reach a critical level approximately 20 years earlier on the North China Plain.