Climate Regionalization for Morchella esculenta Cultivation in the Western Sichuan Plateau Based on GIS

Based on the meteorological data and DEM data in the producing areas of Morchella esculenta in the western Sichuan plateau from 1991 to 2020, the biological characteristics of M. esculenta, as well as the survey of production in the planting area, the correlation between M. esculenta production and the climatic ecological conditions at an altitude of 1 200-3 000 m in the western Sichuan plateau was comprehensively analyzed by using the inverse distance weight method, analytic hierarchy process, climate risk assessment model and geographic information system(GIS), and restrictive or high impact climatic ecological factors were selected as the suitability zoning indicators to carry out the analysis of climatic ecological suitability and planting zoning. The results show that the climatic factors affecting M. esculenta cultivation in the western Sichuan plateau were mainly temperature, temperature difference between day and night, and humidity, and the main meteorological disaster was freezing disaster. Under the influence of vertical changes in temperature, topography and cold damage, the growing areas of M. esculenta in the western Sichuan plateau were mainly distributed in the Minjiang River basin and the river valley along the Dadu River basin at an altitude of 1 200-2 000 m, and were distributed in strips and branches along the rivers. The suitable areas were mainly distributed in Wenchuan, Lixian, Maoxian, Kangding, Jiulong and Luding counties(cities), which were the main producing areas of M. esculenta, but the area was small, accounting for only 3.5% of the study area;the sub-suitable areas were mainly distributed in some towns of Danba, Xiaojin, Wenchuan, Lixian, Maoxian, Heishui and Jiuzhaigou counties, accounting for 36.0% of the total area, and they were the main planting areas of M. esculenta.

Spatial and temporal patterns of the sensitivity of radial growth response by Picea schrenkiana to regional climate change in the Tianshan Mountains

Climate change significantly impacts forest ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions.However,spatiotemporal patterns of climate-sensitive changes in individual tree growth under increased climate warming and precipitation in north-west China is unclear.The dendrochronological method was used to study climate response sensitivity of radial growth of Picea schrenkiana from 158 trees at six sites during 1990-2020.The results show that climate warming and increased precipitation significantly promoted the growth of trees.The response to temperature first increased,then decreased.However,the response to increased precipitation and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index(scPDSI)increased significantly.In most areas of the Tianshan Mountains,the proportion of trees under increased precipitation and scPDSI positive response was relatively high.Over time,small-diameter trees were strongly affected by drought stress.It is predicted that under continuous warming and increased precipitation,trees in most areas of the Tianshan Mountains,especially those with small diameters,will be more affected by precipitation.

Recent Progress in Studies on the Influences of Human Activity on Regional Climate over China

The influences of human activity on regional climate over China have been widely reported and drawn great attention from both the scientific community and governments.This paper reviews the evidence of the anthropogenic influence on regional climate over China from the perspectives of surface air temperature(SAT),precipitation,droughts,and surface wind speed,based on studies published since 2018.The reviewed evidence indicates that human activities,including greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol emissions,land use and cover change,urbanization,and anthropogenic heat release,have contributed to changes in the SAT trend and the likelihood of regional record-breaking extreme high/low temperature events over China.The anthropogenically forced SAT signal can be detected back to the 1870s in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region.Although the anthropogenic signal of summer precipitation over China is detectable and anthropogenic forcing has contributed to an increased likelihood of regional record-breaking heavy/low precipitation events,the anthropogenic precipitation signal over China is relatively obscure.Moreover,human activities have also contributed to a decline in surface wind speed,weakening of monsoon precipitation,and an increase in the frequency of droughts and compound extreme climate/weather events over China in recent decades.This review can serve as a reference both for further understanding the causes of regional climate changes over China and for sound decision-making on regional climate mitigation and adaptation.Additionally,a few key or challenging scientific issues associated with the human influence on regional climate changes are discussed in the context of future research.

Future Precipitation Extremes in China under Climate Change and Their Physical Quantification Based on a Regional Climate Model and CMIP5 Model Simulations

The atmospheric water holding capacity will increase with temperature according to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and affects precipitation.The rates of change in future precipitation extremes are quantified with changes in surface air temperature.Precipitation extremes in China are determined for the 21st century in six simulations using a regional climate model,RegCM4,and 17 global climate models that participated in CMIP5.First,we assess the performance of the CMIP5 models and RCM runs in their simulation of extreme precipitation for the current period(RF:1982-2001).The CMIP5 models and RCM results can capture the spatial variations of precipitation extremes,as well as those based on observations:OBS and XPP.Precipitation extremes over four subregions in China are predicted to increase in the mid-future(MF:2039-58)and far-future(FF:2079-98)relative to those for the RF period based on both the CMIP5 ensemble mean and RCM ensemble mean.The secular trends in the extremes of the CMIP5 models are predicted to increase from 2008 to 2058,and the RCM results show higher interannual variability relative to that of the CMIP5 models.Then,we quantify the increasing rates of change in precipitation extremes in the MF and FF periods in the subregions of China with the changes in surface air temperature.Finally,based on the water vapor equation,changes in precipitation extremes in China for the MF and FF periods are found to correlate positively with changes in the atmospheric vertical wind multiplied by changes in surface specific humidity(significant at the p<0.1 level).

Urbanization Impact on Regional Climate and Extreme Weather:Current Understanding,Uncertainties,and Future Research Directions

Urban environments lie at the confluence of social,cultural,and economic activities and have unique biophysical characteristics due to continued infrastructure development that generally replaces natural landscapes with built-up structures.The vast majority of studies on urban perturbation of local weather and climate have been centered on the urban heat island(UHI)effect,referring to the higher temperature in cities compared to their natural surroundings.Besides the UHI effect and heat waves,urbanization also impacts atmospheric moisture,wind,boundary layer structure,cloud formation,dispersion of air pollutants,precipitation,and storms.In this review article,we first introduce the datasets and methods used in studying urban areas and their impacts through both observation and modeling and then summarize the scientific insights on the impact of urbanization on various aspects of regional climate and extreme weather based on more than 500 studies.We also highlight the major research gaps and challenges in our understanding of the impacts of urbanization and provide our perspective and recommendations for future research priorities and directions.

Spatially diff erentiated changes in regional climate and underlying drivers in southwestern China

The climate in Southwest China are predominantly under the influences of three contrasting climate systems, namely the East Asian monsoon, the South Asian monsoon, and the westerlies. However, it is unclear if the diversified climate systems, in combination with the complex terrain and varying vegetation types, would result in contrasting patterns of changes in climate across the region. Based on the CRU TS data for the period 1901−2017, we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of the regional climate, and identified types of climate change patterns and drivers. Overall, the region experienced significant increases in annual mean temperature during 1901−2017, with occurrence of a significant turning point in 1954 for a more pronounced warming (0.16 ℃/10 a). The annual precipitation fluctuated greatly over the study period without apparent trend, albeit the occurrence of a significant turning point in 1928 for a slight increase in the later period (1.19 mm/10 a). Spatially the multi-year averages of selective climate variables during 1901–2017 displayed a trend of decreases from southeast to northwest, but with increasing variability. We identified five major climate change types across the study region, including warmer (T^(+)), drier (P^(−)), warmer-drier (T^(+)P^(−)), warmer-wetter (T^(+)P^(+)), and no significant changes (NSC). The type T^(+)P^(+) mainly occurred in the western parts over the plateau sub-frigid semiarid ecozone (77.0%) and the plateau sub-frigid semihumid ecozone (19.9%). The central parts of the region are characterized by the type T^(+), corresponding to six ecozones, including the mid-subtropical humid ecozone (33.1%), the plateau temperate humid-semihumid ecozone (28.8%), the plateau sub-rigid semihumid ecozone (9.5%), the southern subtropical humid ecozone (8.1%), the plateau sub-frigid arid ecozone (7.3%), and the plateau temperate semiarid ecozone (6.6%). No significant change in climate was detected for the eastern parts over the mid-subtropical humid ecozone (67.3%), the plateau temperate humid and semihumid ecozone (19.5%) and the plateau sub-frigid semihumid ecozone (8.8%). The types P^(−) and T^(+)P^(−) together accounted for less than 5% of the entire study region, which predominantly occurred in central Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and south of the southeastern Xizang, corresponding predominantly to the mid-subtropical humid ecozone. Across the region and within the zonal climate change types, vegetation and topography both played a significant role in determining the climate variability and magnitude of changes. Our results suggest that the southwestern China experienced intensified influences of the southeasterly monsoon and the southerly monsoon in the regional climate, while the westerly alpine influences subsided;topography and vegetation affected the magnitudes of the directional changes in climate at a local scale.

Influence of the Boundary Forcing on the Internal Variability of a Regional Climate Model

The internal variability of a ten-member ensemble of the regional climate model REMO over Europe is investigated. It is shown that the annual cycle of internal variability behaves differently compared to earlier studies that focused on other regions. To gain better insight into the dependence of the internal variability on the boundary forcing variability, a circulation type classification is performed on the forcing data. It can be shown that especially in the winter season internal variability is dependent on the circulation type included in the boundary forcing, whereas in the summer season the level and pattern of internal variability is rather independent from the circulation type of the driving field. It is concluded that for Europe the internal variability of REMO in winter is governed by circulation patterns related to the North-Atlantic Oscillation, whereas in summer local processes play a bigger role.

The Climate Response to Global Forest Area Changes under Different Warming Scenarios in China

Human activities have notably affected the Earth’s climate through greenhouse gases(GHG), aerosol, and land use/land cover change(LULCC). To investigate the impact of forest changes on regional climate under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), changes in surface air temperature and precipitation over China under low and medium/high radiative forcing scenarios from 2021 to 2099 are analyzed using multimodel climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6). Results show that the climate responses to forest changes are more significant under the low radiative forcing scenario. Deforestation would increase the mean, interannual variability, and the trend of surface air temperature under the low radiative forcing scenario, but it would decrease those indices under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario. The changes in temperature show significant spatial heterogeneity. For precipitation, under the low radiative forcing scenario, deforestation would lead to a significant increase in northern China and a significant decrease in southern China, and the effects are persistent in the near term(2021–40), middle term(2041–70), and long term(2071–99). In contrast, under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario, precipitation increases in the near term and long term over most parts of China, but it decreases in the middle term, especially in southern, northern,and northeast China. The magnitude of precipitation response to deforestation remains comparatively small.

A Regional Climate Study of Heat Waves over the Iberian Peninsula

We present a regional climate simulation for the Iberian Peninsula for a 60-year period (1950-2009) using the WRF-ARW model with a focus on the simulation of summer maximum temperatures and associated extreme heat waves. The WRF model was designed at a 5 km horizontal resolution on a 5-month (May-September) seasonal scale, for every year, during the study period with initial/boundary conditions derived from NCEP 2.5 degree reanalysis. The comparison of simulated mean summer seasonal maximums and mean maximums of June, July, and August months with the corresponding E-OBS data sets indicates that the model is able to characterize the spatial variation of magnitudes of temperature change over the Iberian Peninsula. The mean extreme heat wave conditions during the climate period 1950-2009 are well simulated and match the observations well. The regional scale simulations clearly show the propagation of intense heat waves from the south west to north east of Iberia. The WRF-ARW model also simulated well the general trend of increase in heat waves over most parts of the Iberian Peninsula during the study period 1950-2009. The characteristics of the most severe heat waves years 2003 and 2006 are also well simulated by the model.

Climatic Regionalization of Orange Osmanthus in Pucheng County Based on GIS

[Objectives]This study was conducted to scientifically plan orange osmanthus planting in Pucheng County to promote the development of agricultural economy.[Methods]Two factors,the total number of days with daily average temperature≥15℃from March to August and the total number of days with daily average temperature≥20℃in September were determined as the regionalization index factors using the weather data and geographic information data of Pucheng County,according to the 80%guarantee rate principle,the mean square error method and the actual growth law of orange osmanthus.Then,according to the weighted stack method,comprehensively considering the on-site inspection results and expert opinions,the suitability of orange osmanthus planting layout in Pucheng County was evaluated,and the GIS spatial interpolation technology was applied to complete the refined agroclimatic regionalization.[Results]The growth of Pucheng orange osmanthus has a great relationship with the thermal conditions,and it is clear that the suitable,sub-suitable and unsuitable areas for orange osmanthus planting in Pucheng County have certain applicability and maneuverability.[Conclusions]This study will play a scientific guiding role in the industrialization and development of orange osmanthus planting in Pucheng County.

A High-Resolution Modeling Strategy to Assess Impacts of Climate Change for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean

Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, cannot resolve the effects of topography and land use as they impact the local temperature and precipitation that are keys to climate impacts. We developed a robust dynamical downscaling strategy that used the WRF regional climate model to downscale at 4 - 12 km resolution GCM results. Model verification demonstrates the need for such resolution of topography in order to properly simulate temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult to evaluate, being highly variable in time and space. Overall, a 36 km resolution is inadequate;12 km appears reasonable, especially in regions of low topography, but the 4 km resolution provides the best match with observations. This represents a tradeoff between model resolution and the computational effort needed to make simulations. A key goal is to provide climate change specialists in each country with the information they need to evaluate possible future climate change impacts.

Assessment of the 2006-2012 Climatological Fields and Mesoscale Features from Regional Downscaling of CESM Data by WRF-Chem over Southeast Alaska

This case study examined how well downscaling of Community Earth System Model (CESM) data can reproduce climatological conditions relevant for summer (JJA) air quality in Glacier Bay National Park. Climatology was determined from the meteorological results obtained by the Weather Research and Forecasting model inline coupled with chemistry (WRF-chem) when driven with CESM data of 2006-2012. The climatology of this experiment (EXP) was evaluated by climatology from gridded blended sea-wind speeds, CRU data, and 42 surface meteorology sites. The quality relative to known performance was assessed by comparison to climatology determined from WRF-chem control simulations driven with FNL analysis data (CON) in forecast mode. Compared to observations, the thermodynamic and dynamic performances of EXP showed similar shortcomings (dampened diurnal temperature range, overestimation of wind speed over land) as CON. Over water EXP wind-speed climatology JJA bias (simulated minus observed) was -0.7 m/s. With respect to the CRU data EXP biases in JJA 2m temperature, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity and accumulated precipitation were -1.1 K, -4.9 K, 13%, and 110 mm, respectively. The slightly warmer atmosphere in EXP compensated for deficiencies in the cloud schemes leading to better results for the number of wet days and accumulated precipitation than in CON. Downscaling captured known mesoscale responses important for regional climate in a similar way as CON. When using CESM forcing, lateral boundary effects expanded spatially farther into the domain than known for forcing by analysis data. Overall, climatologies obtained from downscaling for Southeast Alaska had similar skill than those derived from forecasts driven by analysis data.

Dynamical Donwscaling for Railroad Areas in Eastern Amazon and Southeastern Brazil:Current Climate and Near-Future Projections

We performed a dynamic downscaling using REGCM4 regional model driven by MPI global model for current (1990/2012) and near-future (2015/2039) climate in order to characterize the seasonal rainfall regimes throughout the railroad areas in eastern Amazon and southeastern Brazil. The analysis of observational data for the current climate indicated the existence of pronounced spatial variations in rainfall regime across railroad regions during both the rainy and dry seasons. Although models have presented generalized underestimation, the regional model showed improvements on spatial representation and intensity of the rainfall in comparison with global model results. We reported the future projections taking into account the correction of simulated rainfall by the values of the biases found in each respective seasonal regime, so that the results are expressed by percentage changes of the future (2015/2037) relative to the current climate patterns. For the railroad in eastern Amazon, projections indicate a weak decrease of rainfall of about -15% in the rainy season (January to May), however during the dry season (June to October) are expected drastic reductions between -70% and -90% in south (Carajás in Pará state) and north (Sao Luis in Maranhao state) portions. Conversely, for the railroad in southeast Brazil, model projections point out for an increased rainfall regime during the rainy season (October to February) around +30% to +40% in the east part of the region over the Espírito Santo state.

Sensitivity Study of the RegCM4’s Surface Schemes in the Simulations of West Africa Climate

Two simulations of five years (2003-2007) were conducted with the Regional Climate models RegCM4, one coupled with Land surface models BATS and the other with CLM4.5 over West Africa, where simulated air temperature and precipitation were analyzed. The purpose of this study is to assess the performance of RegCM4 coupled with the new CLM4.5 Land surface scheme and the standard one named BATS in order to find the best configuration of RegCM4 over West African. This study could improve our understanding of the sensitivity of land surface model in West Africa climate simulation, and provide relevant information to RegCM4 users. The results show fairly realistic restitution of West Africa’s climatology and indicate correlations of 0.60 to 0.82 between the simulated fields (BATS and CLM4.5) for precipitation. The substitution of BATS surface scheme by CLM4.5 in the model configuration, leads mainly to an improvement of precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean, however, the impact is not sufficiently noticeable over the continent. While the CLM4.5 experiment restores the seasonal cycles and spatial distribution, the biases increase for precipitation and temperature. Positive biases already existing with BATS are amplified over some sub-regions. This study concludes that temporal localization (seasonal effect), spatial distribution (grid points) and magnitude of precipitation and temperature (bias) are not simultaneously improved by CLM4.5. The introduction of the new land surface scheme CLM4.5, therefore, leads to a performance of the same order as that of BATS, albeit with a more detailed formulation.

Downscaling Climate Projections over La Plata Basin

Regional Climate Models are important tools, which are increasingly being used in studies of impacts and adaptation to climate change at local scale. The goal of this work is to assess the climate change over the La Plata Basin, using the Eta Regional model with a resolution of 10 km. Initial and boundary conditions used by the model are provided by the Eta-20 km model and the HadGEM2-ES Global model. The RCP 4.5 scenario was used for simulations of the future climate. The evaluation of the present climate (1961-1990) shows that the model represents well the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature in the region. The model underestimates precipitation over large areas in summer, and overestimates in Southern Brazil in winter. Simulated temperature shows a good correlation with CRU data, with bias less than 1°C. The bias of temperature and precipitation in this simulation setup for the La Plata Basin is substantially reduced in comparison with previous literature using regional models. The climatic projections are shown in timeslices: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. In the three timeslices, the simulation project has a trend for an increase in precipitation during summer in Argentina, Uruguay, and southernmost Brazil. This increase is only projected in Southern Brazil during winter. The negative anomaly of precipitation appears in a large portion of the model domain during summer and is limited to some states in Southeast and Central-West Brazil in winter. The area with largest warming is projected in the northern portion of the domain. The projected increase in temperature reaches about 4°C in 2071-2099.

Sedimentary elements,evolutions and controlling factors of the Miocene channel system:a case study of the deep-water Taranaki Basin in New Zealand

Deep-water channel systems are important petroleum reservoirs,and many have been discovered worldwide.Understanding deep-water channel sedimentary elements and evolution is helpful for deep-sea petroleum exploration and development.Based on high-resolution 3D seismic data,the Miocene channel system in the deep-water Taranaki Basin,New Zealand,was analyzed by using seismic interpretation techniques such as interlayer attribute extraction and strata slicing.The channel system was divided into five composite channels(CC-I to CC-V)according to four secondary level channel boundaries,and sedimentary elements such as channels,slump deposits,inner levees,mass transport deposits,and hemipelagic drape deposits were identified in the channel system.The morphological characteristics of several composite channels exhibited stark variances,and the overall morphology of the composite channels changed from relatively straight to highly sinuous to relatively straight.The evolution of the composite channels involved a gradual and repeated process of erosion and filling,and the composite channels could be divided into three evolutionary stages:initial erosion-filling,later erosion-filling(multistage),and channel abandonment.The middle Miocene channel system may have formed as a consequence of combined regional tectonic activity and global climatic change,and its intricate morphological alterations may have been influenced by the channel's ability to self-regulate and gravity flow properties.When studying the sedimentary evolution of a large-scale deep-water channel system in the Taranaki Basin during the Oligocene-Miocene,which transitioned from a passive margin to plate convergence,it can be understood how tectonic activity affected the channel and can also provide a theoretical reference for the evolution of the deepwater channels in areas with similar tectonic conversion environments around the world.

Agricultural Land Use Effects on Climate over China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics(ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3(RegCM3) is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over China.The model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis(ERA40) data.Two sets of experiments for 15 yr(1987-2001) are conducted,one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use(AG).The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter(DecemberJanuary-February) and summer(June-July-August).The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China(SC) in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast(SE) China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5°and 0.8 ℃ ,respectively.In general,the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1 ℃ in southern China.Slight change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter,with the maximum reduction reaching-7.5% over SE.A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%.The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual variability.Comparison of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use(LU) is also performed.In southern China,the ratio of temperature(precipitation) changes caused by AG and LU is greater than(closer to) the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations.