Impact of Spectral Nudging on the Downscaling of Tropical Cyclones in Regional Climate Simulations

This study investigated the simulations of three months of seasonal tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific using the Advanced Research WRF Model. In the control experiment （CTL）, the TC frequency was considerably overestimated. Additionally, the tracks of some TCs tended to have larger radii of curvature and were shifted eastward. The large-scale environments of westerly monsoon flows and subtropical Pacific highs were unreasonably simulated. The overestimated frequency of TC formation was attributed to a strengthened westerly wind field in the southern quadrants of the TC center. In comparison with the experiment with the spectral nudging method, the strengthened wind speed was mainly modulated by large-scale flow that was greater than approximately 1000 km in the model domain. The spurious formation and undesirable tracks of TCs in the CTL were considerably improved by reproducing realistic large-scale atmospheric monsoon circulation with substantial adjustment between large-scale flow in the model domain and large-scale boundary forcing modified by the spectral nudging method. The realistic monsoon circulation took a vital role in simulating realistic TCs. It revealed that, in the downscaling from large-scale fields for regional climate simulations, scale interaction between model-generated regional features and forced large-scale fields should be considered, and spectral nudging is a desirable method in the downscaling method.

A Review on Aspects of Climate Simulation Assessment

This paper reviews some aspects of evaluation of climate simulation, including the ITCZ, the surface air temperature （SAT）, and the monsoon. A brief introduction of some recently proposed approaches in weather forecast verification is followed by a discussion on their possible application to evaluation of climate simulation. The authors suggest five strategies to extend the forecast verification methods to climate simulation evaluation regardless significant differences between the forecasts and climate simulations. It is argued that resolution, convection scheme, stratocumulus cloud cover, among other processes in the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） and the ocean-atmosphere feedback are the potential causes for the double ITCZ problem in coupled models and AGCM simulations, based on the system- and component-level evaluations as well as the downscaling strategies in some recent research. Evaluations of simulated SAT and monsoons suggest that both coupled models and AGCMs show good performance in representing the SAT evolution and its variability over the past century in terms of correlation and wavelet analysis but poor at reproducing rainfall, and in addition, the AGCM alone is not suitable for monsoon regions due to the lack of air-sea interactions.

Steric Sea Level Change in Twentieth Century Historical Climate Simulation and IPCC-RCP8.5 Scenario Projection: A Comparison of Two Versions of FGOALS Model

To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC＇s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, the results of two versions of LASG/IAP＇s Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） are analyzed. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features, with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation. Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCPS.5 scenario projections are investigated. The results show that, in the 20th century, negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean. Under the RCPS.5 scenario, global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean. The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century. By the year 2100, the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS （FGOALS-s2） and the second grid-point version of FGOALS （FGOALS-g2）, respectively. The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated. In the 20th century, the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 （FGOALS-g2） are largely attributed to the thermosteric （halosteric） component relative to the pre-industrial control run. In contrast, in the 21st century, the thermosteric component, mainly from the upper 1000 m, dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCPS.5 scenario. In addition, the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.

Applications and verification of a computational energy dynamics model for mine climate simulations

A complete thermodynamic model is described for temperature and heat flow distribution simulation for ventilation networks in underground mines.The method is called the Computational Energy Dynamics(CED)model of the heat,mass,and energy transport.The Thermal and Humidity(TH)transport elements of the full model are described for advection,convection,and accumulation,encompassing heat capacity,radiation,latent heat for evaporation,and condensation in the airways,as well as variable heat conduction and accumulation in the rock strata.The thermal flywheel effect for time-dependent temperature field applications is included in the model solution.A CED model validation exercise is described,directly evaluating the iterated,minimized energy balance errors for the mechanical and thermal energy components for each network branch after a converged solution is determined.A simulation example relevant to mine safety and health is shown with the CED-TH model,demonstrating its capabilities in efficiency and accuracy in comparison with measurement results.

A Sensitivity Study of IAP AGCM to Radiation Changes: Climate Simulation of 125kyr and 115kyr before Present

The IAP AGCM was used to simulate the climate of 125kyr and 115kyr before present. We analysed the results and then studied the sensitivity of the model to the changes of radiation distribution induced by orbital parameter changes. The reasonability of the results was also discussed.

Effects of Dynamic Vegetation on Global Climate Simulation Using the NCEP GFS and SSiB4/TRIFFID

Two global experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of dynamic vegetation processes on numerical climate simulations from 1948 to 2008.The NCEP Global Forecast System(GFS)was coupled with a biophysical model,the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model(SSi B)version 2(GFS/SSi B2),and it was also coupled with a biophysical and dynamic vegetation model,SSi B version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics(TRIFFID)(GFS/SSi B4/TRIFFID).The effects of dynamic vegetation processes on the simulation of precipitation,near-surface temperature,and the surface energy budget were identified on monthly and annual scales by assessing the GFS/SSi B4/TRIFFID and GFS/SSi B2 results against the satellite-derived leaf area index(LAI)and albedo and the observed land surface temperature and precipitation.The results show that compared with the GFS/SSiB2 model,the temporal correlation coefficients between the globally averaged monthly simulated LAI and the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System(GIMMS)/Global Land Surface Satellite(GLASS)LAI in the GFS/SSi B4/TRIFFID simulation increased from 0.31/0.29(SSiB2)to 0.47/0.46(SSiB4).The correlation coefficients between the simulated and observed monthly mean near-surface air temperature increased from 0.50(Africa),0.35(Southeast Asia),and 0.39(South America)to 0.56,0.41,and 0.44,respectively.The correlation coefficients between the simulated and observed monthly mean precipitation increased from 0.19(Africa),0.22(South Asia),and 0.22(East Asia)to 0.25,0.27,and 0.28,respectively.The greatest improvement occurred over arid and semiarid areas.The spatiotemporal variability and changes in vegetation and ground surface albedo modeled by the GFS with a dynamic vegetation model were more consistent with the observations.The dynamic vegetation processes contributed to the surface energy and water balance and in turn,improved the annual variations in the simulated regional temperature and precipitation.The dynamic vegetation processes had the greatest influence on the spatiotemporal changes in the latent heat flux.This study shows that dynamic vegetation processes in earth system models significantly improve simulations of the climate mean status.

Simulation of Deep Water Wave Climate for the Indian Seas

The ocean wave climate has a variety of applications in Naval defence.However,a long-term and reliable wave climate for the Indian Seas(The Arabian Sea and The Bay of Bengal)over a desired grid resolution could not be established so far due to several constraints.In this study,an attempt was made for the simulation of wave climate for the Indian Seas using the third-generation wave model(3g-WAM)developed by WAMDI group.The 3g-WAM as such was implemented at NPOL for research applications.The specific importance of this investigation was that,the model utilized a“mean climatic year of winds”estimated using historical wind measurements following statistical and probabilistic approaches as the winds which were considered for this purpose were widely scattered in space and time.Model computations were carried out only for the deep waters with current refraction.The gridded outputs of various wave parameters were stored at each grid point and the spectral outputs were stored at selected locations.Monthly,seasonal and annual distributions of significant wave parameters were obtained by post-processing some of the model outputs.A qualitative validation of simulated wave height and period parameters were also carried out by comparing with the observed data.The study revealed that the results of the wave climate simulation were quite promising and they can be utilized for various operational and ocean engineering applications.Therefore,this study will be a useful reference/demonstration for conducting such experiments in the areas where wind as well as wave measurements are insufficient.

Climate Changes in the 21st Century over the Asia-Pacific Region Simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM

The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two coupled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended through the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (BAU, CO2≈710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2≈540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific region (10°-60°N, 55°-155°) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3-5℃ in winter and 2-3℃ in summer over most Asia. Under the STA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5-1.0℃ in winter and by 0.5℃ in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulation over the Asia-Pacific do- main While the regional precipitation changes from single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%-30% increases north of ～ 30°N and～10% decreases south of ～ 30°N over the Asia-Pacific region in winter and 10%-20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia The CSM single simulation suggests a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM ensemble simulations show small changes in the runoff

The Statistical Significance Test of Regional Climate Change Caused by Land Use and Land Cover Variation in West China

The West Development Policy being implemented in China is causing significant land use and land cover （LULC） changes in West China. With the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database （GLCCD） that characterizes the lower boundary conditions, the regional climate model RIEMS-TEA is used to simulate possible impacts of the significant LULC variation. The model was run for five continuous three-month periods from 1 June to 1 September of 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997, and the results of the five groups are examined by means of a student t-test to identify the statistical significance of regional climate variation. The main results are： （1） The regional climate is affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed. （2） The integrated impact of the LULC variation on regional climate is not only limited to West China where the LULC varies, but also to some areas in the model domain where the LULC does not vary at all. （3） The East Asian monsoon system and its vertical structure are adjusted by the large scale LULC variation in western China, where the consequences are the enhancement of the westward water vapor transfer from the east oast and the relevant increase of wet-hydrostatic energy in the middle-upper atmospheric layers. （4） The ecological engineering in West China affects significantly the regional climate in Northwest China, North China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; there are obvious effects in South, Northeast, and Southwest China, but minor effects in Tibet.

Comparison of a Very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM Dynamical Downscaling in Simulating Climate in China

Regional climate simulation can generally be improved by using an RCM nested within a coarser-resolution GCM.However, whether or not it can also be improved by the direct use of a state-of-the-art GCM with very fine resolution, close to that of an RCM, and, if so, which is the better approach, are open questions. These questions are important for understanding and using these two kinds of simulation approaches, but have not yet been investigated. Accordingly, the present reported work compared simulation results over China from a very-fine-resolution GCM（VFRGCM） and from RCM dynamical downscaling. The results showed that：（1） The VFRGCM reproduces the climatologies and trends of both air temperature and precipitation, as well as inter-monthly variations of air temperature in terms of spatial pattern and amount, closer to observations than the coarse-resolution version of the GCM. This is not the case, however, for the inter-monthly variations of precipitation.（2） The VFRGCM captures the climatology, trend, and inter-monthly variation of air temperature, as well as the trend in precipitation, more reasonably than the RCM dynamical downscaling method.（3） The RCM dynamical downscaling method performs better than the VFRGCM in terms of the climatology and inter-monthly variation of precipitation. Overall,the results suggest that VFRGCMs possess great potential with regard to their application in climate simulation in the future,and the RCM dynamical downscaling method is still dominant in terms of regional precipitation simulation.

Effect of Implementing Ecosystem Functional Type Data in a Mesoscale Climate Model

In this paper, we introduce a new concept of land-surface state representation for southern South America, which is based on ＂functional＂ attributes of vegetation, and implement a new land-cover （Ecosystem Functional Type, hereafter EFT） dataset in the Weather and Research Forecasting （WRF） model. We found that the EFT data enabled us to deal with functional attributes of vegetation and time-variant features more easily than the default land-cover data in the WRF. In order to explore the usefulness of the EFT data in simulations of surface and atmospheric variables, numerical simulations of the WRF model, using both the US Geological Survey （USGS） and the EFT data, were conducted over the La Plata Basin in South America for the austral spring of 1998 and compared with observations. Results showed that the model simulations were sensitive to the lower boundary conditions and that the use of the EFT data improved the climate simulation of 2-m temperature and precipitation, implying the need for this type of information to be included in numerical climate models.

Intercomparison of Precipitation Simulated by Regional Climate Models over East Asia in 1997 and 1998

Regional climate simulations in Asia from May 1997 to August 1998 were performed using the Seoul National University regional climate model （SNURCM） and Iowa State University regional climate model （ALT.MM5/LSM）, which were developed by coupling the NCAR/Land Surface Model （LSM） and the Mesoscale Model （MM5）. However, for physical processes of precipitation, the SNURCM used the Grell scheme for the convective parameterization scheme （CPS） and the simple ice scheme for the explicit moisture scheme （EMS）, while the ALT.MM5/LSM used the Betts-Miller scheme for CPS and the mixed phase scheme for EMS.The simulated precipitation patterns and amounts over East Asia for the extreme climatic summer in 1997 （relative drought conditions） and 1998 （relative flood conditions） were especially focused upon. The ALT.MM5/LSM simulated more precipitation than was observed in 1997 due to more moisture and cloud water in the lower levels, despite weak upward motion. In the SNURCM, strong upward motion resulted in more precipitation than that was observed in 1998, with more moisture and cloud water in the middle levels. In the ALT.MM5/LSM, weak upward motion, unchanged moisture in the lower troposphere, and the decrease in latent heat flux at the surface increased convective precipitation only by 3% for the 1998 summer event. In the SNURCM, strong upward motion, the increase in moisture in the lower troposphere, and the increase in latent heat flux at the surface increased convective precipitation by 48% for the summer of 1998. The main differences between both simulations were moisture availability and horizontal momentum transport in the lower troposphere, which were also strongly influenced by large-scale forcing.

Climate effects of nuclear war in China

By utilizing simulations of climatic respponse to nuclear smoke, which were made by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA, climate change in China induced by a large-scale nuclear war is analysed. Remarkable climate change in China following nuclear smoke injections is found. The surface air temperature decreases dramatically around all China, surface cooling is 13 ℃ averaging over whole China in July and maximum cooling is 23. 4 ℃ , 3 ℃ cooling in January and maximum 8℃ for the 150 Tg smoke injection (equivalent to the base-line nuclear war). However, the change in temperature is unhomogeneous, implying that the rise in temperature happens over some parts of China. An averaging precipitation decrease in many of months of the experimental year. The precipitation defect is dependent on a scale of nuclear war, the deduction is 1.8mm/day averaging over China in July in the 150 Tg smoke injection, and 0.1 mm/d in January. Nevertheless, the precipitation enhancement in a few months over some regions is found. This dramatic climate change brings catastrophe to agriculture, ecology, as well as socio-economics.

The Seasonal Climatic Simulation of 9000 Years before Present by Using the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model

The seasonal cycle of the climate of 9000 years before present was simulated with the IAP two-level atmospheric general circulation model. The incoming solar radiation was specified from the orbital parameters for 9000 years ago. The boundary conditions of that time were prescribed to the present value because of the small differences between the two. The change in radiation makes temperature to be higher in summer and lower in winter over large areas of the land; and the increased temperature contrast between the land and the ocean strengthens the summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation over there. The asymmetry of temperature change between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere and between summer and winter still exists, which agrees with that get from the previous perpetual experiments.

Projections of ocean climate for northwestern Pacific Ocean

The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO2 concentration have been analyzed in 70 and 140 a integrations with NCAR fully-coupled climate system model (CSM). In these experiments the CO2 concentration has been increased to double and quadruples the initial concentration, respectively. After 70 a, at the time of CO2 doubling, the model predicts surface air temperature rises by 1.2 and 1.5 K for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean, respectively. The behavior of the quadrupling run is similar: each global and regional mean surface air temperatures increase by 2.8 and 3.0 K at the time of CO2 quadrupling. From the experiments, surface air temperature changes in the northwestern Pacific Ocean will be more distinctive compared with the global average, mainly due to exceptionally large wanning and sea level change near the entrance of the Kuroshio extension.

Why Does FGOALS-gl Reproduce a Weak Medieval Warm Period But a Reasonable Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming?

To understand the strengths and limitations of a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） to simulate the climate of the last millennium, the energy balance, climate sensitivity and absorption feedback of the model are analyzed. Simulation of last-millennium climate was carried out by driving the model with natural （solar radiation and volcanic eruptions） and anthropogenic （greenhouse gases and aerosols） forcing agents. The model feedback factors for （model sensitivity to） different forcings were calculated. The results show that the system feedback factor is about 2.5 （W m-2） K-1 in the pre-industrial period, while 1.9 （W m-2） K-1 in the industrial era. Thus, the model＇s sensitivity to natural forcing is weak, which explains why it reproduces a weak Medieval Warm Period. The relatively reasonable simulation of the Little Ice Age is caused by both the specified radiative forcing and unforced linear cold drift. The model sensitivity in the industrial era is higher than that of the pre-industrial period. A negative net cloud radiative feedback operates during whole-millennial simulation and reduces the model＇s sensitivity to specified forcing. The negative net cloud radiative forcing feedback under natural forcing in the period prior to 1850 is due to the underestimation （overestimation） of the response of cloudiness （in-cloud water path）. In the industrial era, the strong tropospheric temperature response enlarges the effective radius of ice clouds and reduces the fractional ice content within cloud, resulting in a weak negative net cloud feedback in the industrial period. The water vapor feedback in the industrial era is also stronger than that in the pre-industrial period. Both are in favor of higher model sensitivity and thus a reasonable simulation of the 20th century global warming.

Multi-year simulation of the East Asian Monsoon and Precipitation in China using a Regional Climate Model and Evaluation

By using the regional climate model (RegCM_NCC), East Asian monsoon andprecipitation over China during 1998 to 2002 are simulated. Results show that the model can wellreproduce the seasonal patterns of mean circulation as well as the intensity and seasonal march ofthe East Asian monsoon. The simulated onset or retreat time of the West Pacific subtropical high,and the intensity and location of the South Asian high are consistent with the fact. The spatialdistribution and transport of moisture in lower layer are also well simulated. The seasonalvariations of regional rainfall and temperature are reproduced in the model, with three northwardshift time and intensity of the rain belts over the sub-regions (such as Mid-Lower Yangtze basinsand South China) well corresponding to the observation. However, the simulated summer monsoon isstronger compared with NCEP reanalysis fields, with the location of subtropical high being furthernorth by 2-3 degrees than normal. Error evaluation shows that there is a discernible systematic biasin the simulated mean circulation pattern, with air temperature bias being positive over the landand negative over the ocean in the lower troposphere in summer. The systematic bias exaggerates thesummer temperature difference between the land and ocean, which may be a main responsible factor forthe stronger simulated summer monsoon, thus resulting in the overestimated rainfall in North Chinaand it can not reflect well the abnormal rainfall distribution in these 5 years. The deficiency maybe mainly contributed to the complex topography and cloud-radiation parameterization scheme. Theanalyses also indicate that it is difficult to simulate the persistent abnormal precipitationpattern over China. It is necessary to improve the model's capability further.

Precipitation Changes in Wet and Dry Seasons over the 20th Century Simulated by Two Versions of the FGOALS Model

Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS） model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65-0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet sea- sons get wetter and the annual range （precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons） increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.

Sahel Afforestation and Simulated Risks of Heatwaves and Flooding Versus Ecological Revegetation That Combines Planting and Succession

Studies simulating the large-scale afforestation of the African Sahel constantly find warning signals of increased risk of extreme temperatures and heatwaves resulting from changes in albedo and latent heat flow. We review the afforestation measures underlying three simulation studies, together with a restoration model in which compartments are formed by greenbelts to enable succession of savanna vegetation, protected from hot wind and drought. Savanna-like vegetation (around 20% woody plants) will show bright reflective surface and drying of leaves during dry season rather than constant green color, with very different impact on albedo and temperatures. We derive that the simulated risks of extreme heat and flooding from rain will strongly depend on species, shape and density of the new vegetation. Ecological restoration concepts are expected to mitigate or prevent such restoration related climatic risks. Compact afforestation of the Sahel does not appear to be necessary or feasible. A restoration model based on compartmentalization and the protected succession of diverse, climatically adaptable vegetation could also be used in populated drylands, as a sustainable and temperature balancing solution to desertification.