Responses of Annual Variability of Vegetation NPP to Climate Variables Using Satellite Techniques in Gadarif State, Sudan

Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.

Evaluation of CRU TS, GPCC, AgMERRA, and AgCFSR meteorological datasets for estimating climate and crop variables: A case study of maize in Qazvin Province, Iran

In the past few decades,meteorological datasets from remote sensing techniques in agricultural and water resources management have been used by various researchers and managers.Based on the literature,meteorological datasets are not more accurate than synoptic stations,but their various advantages,such as spatial coverage,time coverage,accessibility,and free use,have made these techniques superior,and sometimes we can use them instead of synoptic stations.In this study,we used four meteorological datasets,including Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series(CRU TS),Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Agricultural National Aeronautics and Space Administration Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications(AgMERRA),Agricultural Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(AgCFSR),to estimate climate variables,i.e.,precipitation,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature,and crop variables,i.e.,reference evapotranspiration,irrigation requirement,biomass,and yield of maize,in Qazvin Province of Iran during 1980-2009.At first,data were gathered from the four meteorological datasets and synoptic station in this province,and climate variables were calculated.Then,after using the AquaCrop model to calculate the crop variables,we compared the results of the synoptic station and meteorological datasets.All the four meteorological datasets showed strong performance for estimating climate variables.AgMERRA and AgCFSR had more accurate estimations for precipitation and maximum temperature.However,their normalized root mean square error was inferior to CRU for minimum temperature.Furthermore,they were all very efficient for estimating the biomass and yield of maize in this province.For reference evapotranspiration and irrigation requirement CRU TS and GPCC were the most efficient rather than AgMERRA and AgCFSR.But for the estimation of biomass and yield,all the four meteorological datasets were reliable.To sum up,GPCC and AgCFSR were the two best datasets in this study.This study suggests the use of meteorological datasets in water resource management and agricultural management to monitor past changes and estimate recent trends.

Reviewing the discoverability and accessibility to data and information products linked to Essential Climate Variables

Essential Climate Variables(ECVs)are geophysical records generated from systematic Earth Observations associated with climate variations,changes,and impacts.ECVs products support the data and information needs of international frameworks and policies such as the work of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).We map the main networks and initiatives publishing ECVs,by presenting an overview of existing satellite-based ECVs,their general data creation characteristics,discoverability and accessibility methods from an end-user perspective.We investigate key initiatives providing or coordinating access to ECV data records,such as the Global Climate Observing System(GCOS),the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites(CEOS),the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites(CGMS),Joint Working Group on Climate(WGClimate),the Remote Sensing Systems(REMSS),and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative(ESA CCI).We find that ECV data discovery and access is difficult and time consuming due to the lack of common data and metadata catalogues.In addition,the selection of fit-for-purpose data records by end-users requires the implementation of interoperable standards and scalable data infrastructures to allow the generation of tailored applications and datadriven information products in support of decision-making processes.

Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon

Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.

Indicator of climate variability:low treeline displacement in arid valleys of mountain areas,China

As climate change intensifies,finding an ecological indicator to quickly and accurately reflect the impact on mountain ecosystems is necessary.The low treeline/timberline,highly sensitive to climate variability and changes significantly within 5–10years,provides a new way to study the response to regional climate variability.This study explored the distribution and vertical displacement patterns of the low treeline in the Upper Minjiang River of China,using SPOT remote sensing images in 1999 and 2013and long-term positional observations.Using the Geodetector model,the study investigated the dominant climatic factors influencing the low treeline displacement.The results showed that the low treeline was located at 1700–3200 m elevation on sunny slopes(southeast,south,southwest,and west slopes)with slopes over 25°.From 1999 to 2013,the low treeline moved downward by 6 m from 2561±264m to 2555±265 m,along with a warm–humid climate tendency.The downward displacement was greater on slopes over 25°and shady slopes(-20 m and-10 m,respectively)than on slopes≤25°and sunny slopes.Additionally,the downward was greater in the warm and humid Zagunao River Basin(-15 m)compared to the arid valley center(-7 m)and the cold Heishui River Basin(-3 m).Meanwhile,the low treeline displacement correlated negatively with precipitation and relative humidity variations at the significance level of 0.05,with correlation coefficients of-0.572and-0.551,respectively.Variations in relative humidity and temperature significantly affected the spatial differentiation of low treeline displacement with influencing power of 0.246(p=0.036<0.05)and 0.183(p=0.032<0.05),respectively.Thus,the low treeline is a moisture-limited line,and its formation and variation are closely related to regional water–heat balance.The study clarifies the indicative value of the low treeline for climate variability in mountain areas and can provide references for ecological restoration in arid valleys.

The Influence of Climate Change and Variability on Spatio-Temporal Rainfall and Temperature Distribution in Zanzibar

Climate change has resulted in serious social-economic ramifications and extremely catastrophic weather events in the world, Tanzania and Zanzibar in particular, with adaptation being the only option to reduce impacts. The study focuses on the influence of climate change and variability on spatio-temporal rainfall and temperature variability and distribution in Zanzibar. The station observation datasets of rainfall, Tmax and Tmin acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX) projected datasets from the Regional climate model HIRHAM5 under driving model ICHEC-EC-EARH, for the three periods of 1991-2020 used as baseline (HS), 2021-2050 as near future (NF) and 2051-2080 far future (FF), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5, were used. The long-term observed Tmax and Tmin were used to produce time series for observing the nature and trends, while the observed rainfall data was used for understanding wet and dry periods, trends and slope (at p ≤ 0.05) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Moreover, the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) under the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation techniques were used for mapping the three decades of 1991-2000 (hereafter D1), 2001-2010 (hereafter D2) and 2011-2020 (hereafter D3) to analyze periodical spatial rainfall distribution in Zanzibar. As for the projected datasets the Climate Data Operator Commands (CDO), python scripts and Grid analysis and Display System (GrADS) soft-wares were used to process and display the results of the projected datasets of rainfall, Tmax and Tmin for the HS, NF and FF, respectively. The results show that the observed Tmax increased by the rates of 0.035℃ yr-1 and 0.0169℃ yr-1, while the Tmin was increased by a rate of 0.064℃ yr-1 and 0.104℃ yr-1 for Unguja and Pemba, respectively. The temporal distribution of wetness and dryness indices showed a climate shift from near normal to moderate wet during 2005 at Zanzibar Airport, while normal to moderately dry conditions, were observed in Pemba at Matangatuani. The decadal rainfall variability and distributions revealed higher rainfall intensity with an increasing trend and good spatial distribution in D3 from March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The projected results for Tmax during MAM and OND depicted higher values ranging from 1.7℃ - 1.8℃ to 1.9℃ - 2.0℃ and 1.5℃ to 2.0℃ in FF compared to NF under both RCPs. Also, higher Tmin values of 1.12℃ - 1.16℃ was projected in FF for MAM and OND under both RCPs. Besides, the rainfall projection generally revealed increased rainfall intensity in the range of 0 - 25 mm for Pemba and declined rainfall in the range of 25 - 50 mm in Unguja under both RCPs in perspectives of both NF and FF. Conclusively the study has shown that the undergoing climate change has posed a significant impact on both rainfall and temperature spatial and temporal distributions in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba), with Unguja being projected to have higher rainfall deficits while increasing rainfall strengths in Pemba. Thus, the study calls for more studies and formulation of effective adaptation, strategies and resilience mechanisms to combat the projected climate change impacts especially in the agricultural sector, water and food security.

Agro-Climatic Risks Analysis in Climate Variability Context in Ségou Region

In the Sahel region, the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn out to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic risks in the context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the variabilities described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters was analyzed as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy season was clarified.

Behavior of wood basic density according to environmental variables

The relationships between climate conditions and wood density in tropical forests are still poorly understood.To quantify spatial dependence of wood density in the state of Minas Gerais(MG,Brazil),map spatial distribution of density,and correlate density with climate variables,we extracted data from the Forest Inventory of Minas Gerais for 1988 trees scaled throughout the territory and measured wood density of discs removed from the trees.Environmental variables were extracted from the database of the Ecological-Economic Zoning of Minas Gerais.For spatial analysis,tree densities were measured at 44 georeferenced sampling points.The data were subjected to exploratory analysis,variography,cross-validation,model selection,and ordinary kriging.The relationships between wood density and environmental variables were calculated using dispersion matrices,linear correlation,and regression.Wood density proved to be highly spatially dependent,reaching a correlation of 96%,and was highly continuous over a distance of 228 km.The distribution of wood density followed a continuous gradient of 514-659 kg m^(−3),enabling corre-lation with environment variables.Density was correlated with mean annual precipitation(−0.57),temperature(0.63),and evapotranspiration(0.83).Geostatistical methods proved useful in predicting wood density in native tropical forests with different climate conditions.Our results confirmed the sensitivity of wood density to climate change,which could affect future carbon stock in forests.

Multi-decadal Changes of the Impact of El Niño Events on Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation

Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has an important effect on the water supply and demand of the downstream population.Involving recent climate change,the multi-decadal variations of the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events on regional climate were observed.In this work,the authors investigated the changes in summer precipitation over TP during 1950-2019.At the multi-decadal scale,the authors found that the inhabiting impact of El Niño events on the TP summer precipitation has strengthened since the late 1970s.The main factor contributing to this phenomenon is the significant amplification in the decadal amplitude of El Niño during 1978-2019 accompanied by a discernible escalation in the frequency of El Niño events.This phenomenon induces anomalous perturbations in sea surface temperatures(SST)within the tropical Indo-Pacific region,consequently weakening the atmospheric vapor transport from the western Pacific to the TP.Additionally,conspicuous anomalies in subsidence motion are observed longitudinally and latitudinally across the TP which significantly contributes to a curtailed supply of atmospheric moisture.These results bear profound implications for the multi-decadal prediction of the TP climate.

Seasonal Dynamic of the Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E Smith, 1797) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on Maize Crop in the Sub-Sudanese Zone of Côte d’Ivoire

In Côte d’Ivoire, maize (Zea mays L) is the second most cultivated cereal after rice. Since the first report of Spodoptera frugiperda in Côte d’Ivoire, maize production in the northern regions has been affected resulting in maize production losses. This study aims to study the seasonal dynamic of Spodoptera frugiperda in maize fields in the sub-Sudanese zone, main zone of maize cultivation in Côte d’Ivoire. The study was done using pheromone trap lures. The results revealed a variation in the moth population at various growth stages during rainy and dry seasons. Notably, the highest numbers of moths were consistently trapped during the whorl stage with counts ranging from 131 ± 35.7 during the rainy season to 70.6 ± 15.01 in the dry season. The lowest numbers of moths were observed during pod maturation, with counts ranging from 30.3 ± 13.05 during the rainy season to 11.7 ± 3.05 in the dry season. Between the 7th and 21st days after sowing, the count of moths displayed a consistent upward trajectory, reaching 188 moths during the rainy season. The damages were particularly observed at whorl stage. The relationship between the numbers of moths and some climatic variables revealed a negative correlation between moths numbers and rainfall (r= −0.44) and relative humidity (r= −0.684). In contrast, there were positive relationships with temperature (r = 0.16), highlighting the significant impact of temperature changes on moth population dynamics. The research highlights the need for integrated pest management strategies that consider climatic factors and growth stages of maize to mitigate the impact of this insect pest on maize.

Analysis of Extreme Temperature Variability in Rwanda

The temperature is one of the most important factors in weather and climate forecasting.Studying its behaviour is crucial to understanding climate variability,which could vary spatially and temporally at local,regional,and global scales.Several recent studies on air temperature findings show that the Earth’s near surface air temperature increased between 0.6℃ and 0.8℃ throughout the twentieth century.Using temperature records from ten meteorological stations,this study examined climate variability in Rwanda from the 1930s to 2014.The air temperature data were collected from Meteo Rwanda.Before making the analysis,the authors used software,such as Excel 2007 and INSTAT to control the quality of the raw data.The analysis of maxima and minima indicated that the trends of maximum air temperature were positive and significant at height meteorological stations,whereas the trends for minimum air temperature were found to be at 10 meteorological stations.For all parameters analysed,Kigali Airport meteorological station indicated the higher significance of the trends.The majority of meteorological stations showed an increase in both hot days and nights,confirming Rwanda’s warming over time.The analysis of average seasonal air temperature showed almost similar trends even though not all were significant.This similarity in trends could be attributed to the fact that Rwanda’s short and long dry seasons coincide with rainy seasons.

An Overview of Dry-wet Climate Variability among Monsoon-Westerly Regions and the Monsoon Northernmost Marginal Active Zone in China

Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4-5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.

Interannual Variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index on the Tibetan Plateau and Its Relationship with Climate Change

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.

Terrestrial water storage changes over the Pearl River Basin from GRACE and connections with Pacific climate variability

Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage （TWS） changes over the Pearl River Basin （PRB） for the period 2003-Nov. 2014. TWS estimates from GRACE generally show good agreement with those from two hydrological models GLDAS and WGHM. But they show different capability of detecting significant TWS changes over the PRB. Among them, WGHM is likely to underestimate the seasonal variability of TWS, while GRACE detects long- term water depletions over the upper PRB as was done by hydrological models, and observes significant water increases around the Longtan Reservoir （LTR） due to water impoundment. The heavy drought in 2011 caused by the persistent precipitation deficit has resulted in extreme low surface runoff and water level of the LTR. Moreover, large variability of summer and autumn precipitation may easily trigger floods and droughts in the rainy season in the PRB, especially for summer, as a high correlation of 0.89 was found between precipitation and surface runoff. Generally, the PRB TWS was negatively correlated with El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events. However, the modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） may impact this relationship, and the significant TWS anomaly was likely to occur in the peak of PDO phase as they agree well in both of the magnitude and timing of peaks. This indicates that GRACE-based TWS could be a valuable parameter for studying climatic in- fluences in the PRB.

Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District

Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration （ET0 ） （estimated by the Penman-Monteith method） were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen＇s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the ET0 change and each climatic variable＇s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in ETo. The radiative component of total ET0 increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total ETo than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season （from April to October）. The sensitivity analysis showed that ETo in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature （11.8%）, followed by wind speed （-7.3%） and relative humidity （4.8%）. Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on ET0 over the past 59 years.

Relationships between tree-ring cell features of Pinus koraiensis and climate factors in the Changbai Mountains,Northeastern China

Anatomical characteristics have been proven useful for extracting climatic signals. To examine the climatic signals recorded by tree-ring cell features in the Changbai Mountains, we measured cell number and cell lumen diameter, in addition to ring widths, of Korean pine （Pinus koraiensis） tree rings at sites of varied elevation, and we developed chronologies of cell number （CN）, mean lumen diameter （MLD）, maximum lumen diameter （MAXLD） and tree-ring width （TRW）. The chronologies were correlated with climatic factors monthly mean tem- perature and the sum of precipitation. As shown by our analysis, the cell parameter chronologies were suitable for dendroclimatology studies. CN and TRW shared relatively similar climatic signals which differed from MLD and MAXLD, and growth-climate relationships were elevation- dependent, as shown by the following findings： （1） at each elevation, MLD and MAXLD recorded different monthly climatic signals from those recorded by TRW for the same climatic factors; and （2） MLD and MAXLD recorded cli- matic factors that were absent middle elevations. Cell lumen effective archive for improving for this study area. from TRW at lower and diameter proved to be an the climate reconstruction

Simulation by CMIP5 Models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Its Climate Impacts

This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the ＂Pre-industrial＂ experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models＇ ＂Historical＂ simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their ＂Pre-industrial＂ simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.

A Review of Seasonal Climate Prediction Research in China

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.

Simulating global soil-CO_2 flux and its response to climate change

It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO\-2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0 5°×0 5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil\|CO\-2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil\|CO\-2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil\|CO\-2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature, precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil\|CO 2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO 2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil\|CO 2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil\|CO 2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35% above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.

Major Modes of Short-Term Climate Variability in the Newly Developed NUIST Earth System Model(NESM)

A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean（NEMO）, and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model（CICE）. The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1（NESM1）. Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model＇s major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model＇s assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring–fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific（CP）-ENSO and eastern Pacific（EP）-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability,biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）, and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version（T159） demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon–ENSO lead–lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.