Based on climate change scenarios projected from GCMs (GFDL, UKMO and MPI), this study evaluates possible impacts of climate warming on rice production in China using numerical simulation experiments. A stochastic wea...Based on climate change scenarios projected from GCMs (GFDL, UKMO and MPI), this study evaluates possible impacts of climate warming on rice production in China using numerical simulation experiments. A stochastic weather generator is used to make the projected climatic change scenarios suitable to the input of crop model, ORYZA1. The results show that the duration of rice growing season will be lengthened by 6-11 days and the accumulated temperature will increase by 200℃.d-330℃.d when CO2 concentration in the atmosphere doubles. The probability of cool injury in reproductive and grain filling period will decrease while that of heat stress will increase. Rice yield will decrease if cultivars and fanning practices are unchanged. If the dates of rice development stages can be maintained unchanged through cultivar adjustment although rice yield in most parts of the areas will decrease, the decrements will be much less than that when cultivars and farming practices are unchanged.展开更多
Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the natural greenhouse effect,which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes.China is a largely agricultural countr...Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the natural greenhouse effect,which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes.China is a largely agricultural country with a large size of population and the relative shortages of farming lands and water resources,thus increasing the importance of climate warming for national economy development.Therefore,Chinese government and scientists have paid great attention to the impact-assessment of climate warming on national economy in China,especially during the past 10 years.This presentation will briefly describe some major issues of climate warming impact research on national vegetation,agriculture,forest,water resources,energy use and regional sea level for China,etc. As a result,all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in the characteristic natural vegetation types.It is also shown that comparing with the distribution simulated under the normal time period 1951—1980 as the present climate,by 2050 large changes in cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China.Climate warming would lead to increase cropping diversification and multiplication.Unfortunately,the possible net balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration would be negative and it would lead to reduce the grain production in China significantly due to enhanced moisture stress in soil.The most evident influence of climate warming on water resources would happen in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Basin and the water supply-demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area.And also,a warmer climate for China will alter the energy requirement for domestic heating and cooling,that is, reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling in southern China.展开更多
文摘Based on climate change scenarios projected from GCMs (GFDL, UKMO and MPI), this study evaluates possible impacts of climate warming on rice production in China using numerical simulation experiments. A stochastic weather generator is used to make the projected climatic change scenarios suitable to the input of crop model, ORYZA1. The results show that the duration of rice growing season will be lengthened by 6-11 days and the accumulated temperature will increase by 200℃.d-330℃.d when CO2 concentration in the atmosphere doubles. The probability of cool injury in reproductive and grain filling period will decrease while that of heat stress will increase. Rice yield will decrease if cultivars and fanning practices are unchanged. If the dates of rice development stages can be maintained unchanged through cultivar adjustment although rice yield in most parts of the areas will decrease, the decrements will be much less than that when cultivars and farming practices are unchanged.
文摘Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the natural greenhouse effect,which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes.China is a largely agricultural country with a large size of population and the relative shortages of farming lands and water resources,thus increasing the importance of climate warming for national economy development.Therefore,Chinese government and scientists have paid great attention to the impact-assessment of climate warming on national economy in China,especially during the past 10 years.This presentation will briefly describe some major issues of climate warming impact research on national vegetation,agriculture,forest,water resources,energy use and regional sea level for China,etc. As a result,all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in the characteristic natural vegetation types.It is also shown that comparing with the distribution simulated under the normal time period 1951—1980 as the present climate,by 2050 large changes in cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China.Climate warming would lead to increase cropping diversification and multiplication.Unfortunately,the possible net balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration would be negative and it would lead to reduce the grain production in China significantly due to enhanced moisture stress in soil.The most evident influence of climate warming on water resources would happen in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Basin and the water supply-demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area.And also,a warmer climate for China will alter the energy requirement for domestic heating and cooling,that is, reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling in southern China.
