[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss analyze climate change characteristics and return periods of heavy precipitation in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ Method] Based on the data of daily precipitati...[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss analyze climate change characteristics and return periods of heavy precipitation in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ Method] Based on the data of daily precipitation from 1943 to 2008 in 6 representative meteorological stations in Linxia located in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the climate change characteristics of heavy precipitation were analyzed, and the return periods of heavy precipitation were calculated by Pearson-Ill probability distribution method. [ Result] Days of heavy precipitation in Linxia region in- creased conspicuously since the 1990s. The return periods of heavy precipitation in the six stations on August 20, 2008 were consistent with the re- sults of artificial estimation. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the reasonable utilization of climate resources, disas- ter prevention and rational arranqement of anricultural plantina svstems in Linxia reaion.展开更多
Climate change and human activities such as overgrazing and rapid development of tourism simultaneously affected the vegetation of the Zoige Plateau.However,the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the relative...Climate change and human activities such as overgrazing and rapid development of tourism simultaneously affected the vegetation of the Zoige Plateau.However,the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to these vegetation dynamics remain unclear.Therefore,clarifying how and why the vegetation on the Zoige Plateau changed can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the region.Here,we investigate NDVI trends using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation greenness and distinguish the relative effects of climate changes and human activities on vegetation changes by utilizing residual trend analysis and the Geodetector.We find a tendency of vegetation greening from 2001 to 2020,with significant greening accounting for 21.44%of the entire region.However,browning area expanded rapidly after 2011.Warmer temperatures are the primary driver of vegetation changes in the Zoige Plateau.Climatic variations and human activities were responsible for 65.57%and 34.43%of vegetation greening,and 39.14%and 60.86%of vegetation browning,respectively,with browning concentrated along the Yellow,Black and White Rivers.Compared to 2001-2010,the inhibitory effect of human activity and climate fluctuations on vegetation grew dramatically between 2011 and 2020.展开更多
全球变化背景下古气候学的研究越来越受到关注。利用多年来的文献记载和自然证据,对青藏高原东北部气候变化进行重建。并以若尔盖湿地为例,梳理了区域5000 a来气候变化对湿地植被类型、泥炭沼泽发育和文化发展产生的影响,探讨了气候变...全球变化背景下古气候学的研究越来越受到关注。利用多年来的文献记载和自然证据,对青藏高原东北部气候变化进行重建。并以若尔盖湿地为例,梳理了区域5000 a来气候变化对湿地植被类型、泥炭沼泽发育和文化发展产生的影响,探讨了气候变化、文化发展、沼泽发育三者之间可能具有的相互关系。指出青藏高原东北部5000—3000 a B.P.之间气候较为暖湿,其平均温度要高出现在2℃左右;3000 a B.P.至今为气候干冷期,其中1000 a B.P.左右是过去5000 a中最寒冷时期,近1000 a来气温呈缓慢回升趋势。区域的气候变化决定了植被类型,对泥炭沼泽的形成和发育发挥了重要作用,对文明进程的影响主要体现在气候变化通过影响沼泽的演替,从而改变人类活动的范围与早期文明的形成,同时人类的过度活动也在一定程度上影响了沼泽的分布格局及动态。但气候变化、沼泽发育和文化发展三者之间的关系有赖于多因素耦合,其具体机理有待更深入的研究。展开更多
若尔盖高原的降水量微弱减少与蒸发量持续上升,使若尔盖高原径流量与储水量逐年降低,直接减少了若尔盖高原的湿地面积和对黄河上游径流量的补给。基于红原、若尔盖和玛曲站的气象数据和7个水文站的径流量数据(1981-2011年),并对数据序...若尔盖高原的降水量微弱减少与蒸发量持续上升,使若尔盖高原径流量与储水量逐年降低,直接减少了若尔盖高原的湿地面积和对黄河上游径流量的补给。基于红原、若尔盖和玛曲站的气象数据和7个水文站的径流量数据(1981-2011年),并对数据序列进行插补与计算,获得若尔盖高原的径流量变化与气候因子的响应关系,进而计算储水量变化。计算结果表明:若尔盖高原向黄河年均补水(67.08±14.90)×108 m 3,并以0.48×108 m 3/a速率持续减少。降水量每减少1 mm将导致黑河与白河的年径流量分别减少0.02×108和0.05×108 m 3。蒸发量每增加1 mm将导致黑河与白河的年径流量分别减少0.12×108和0.27×108 m 3。1981-2011年若尔盖高原的年均储水量为(59.30±18.69)×108 m 3,其年均递减速率为0.49×108 m 3/a。本研究有助于认识若尔盖高原对于黄河上游水资源保障的重要性。展开更多
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Research Projects of Gansu Meteorological Bureau(2013-14)
文摘[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss analyze climate change characteristics and return periods of heavy precipitation in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ Method] Based on the data of daily precipitation from 1943 to 2008 in 6 representative meteorological stations in Linxia located in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the climate change characteristics of heavy precipitation were analyzed, and the return periods of heavy precipitation were calculated by Pearson-Ill probability distribution method. [ Result] Days of heavy precipitation in Linxia region in- creased conspicuously since the 1990s. The return periods of heavy precipitation in the six stations on August 20, 2008 were consistent with the re- sults of artificial estimation. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the reasonable utilization of climate resources, disas- ter prevention and rational arranqement of anricultural plantina svstems in Linxia reaion.
基金partially financed by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42201439)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.2022NSFSC1082)Key Laboratory of Smart Earth(No.KF2023YB02-12).
文摘Climate change and human activities such as overgrazing and rapid development of tourism simultaneously affected the vegetation of the Zoige Plateau.However,the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to these vegetation dynamics remain unclear.Therefore,clarifying how and why the vegetation on the Zoige Plateau changed can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the region.Here,we investigate NDVI trends using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation greenness and distinguish the relative effects of climate changes and human activities on vegetation changes by utilizing residual trend analysis and the Geodetector.We find a tendency of vegetation greening from 2001 to 2020,with significant greening accounting for 21.44%of the entire region.However,browning area expanded rapidly after 2011.Warmer temperatures are the primary driver of vegetation changes in the Zoige Plateau.Climatic variations and human activities were responsible for 65.57%and 34.43%of vegetation greening,and 39.14%and 60.86%of vegetation browning,respectively,with browning concentrated along the Yellow,Black and White Rivers.Compared to 2001-2010,the inhibitory effect of human activity and climate fluctuations on vegetation grew dramatically between 2011 and 2020.
文摘全球变化背景下古气候学的研究越来越受到关注。利用多年来的文献记载和自然证据,对青藏高原东北部气候变化进行重建。并以若尔盖湿地为例,梳理了区域5000 a来气候变化对湿地植被类型、泥炭沼泽发育和文化发展产生的影响,探讨了气候变化、文化发展、沼泽发育三者之间可能具有的相互关系。指出青藏高原东北部5000—3000 a B.P.之间气候较为暖湿,其平均温度要高出现在2℃左右;3000 a B.P.至今为气候干冷期,其中1000 a B.P.左右是过去5000 a中最寒冷时期,近1000 a来气温呈缓慢回升趋势。区域的气候变化决定了植被类型,对泥炭沼泽的形成和发育发挥了重要作用,对文明进程的影响主要体现在气候变化通过影响沼泽的演替,从而改变人类活动的范围与早期文明的形成,同时人类的过度活动也在一定程度上影响了沼泽的分布格局及动态。但气候变化、沼泽发育和文化发展三者之间的关系有赖于多因素耦合,其具体机理有待更深入的研究。
文摘若尔盖高原的降水量微弱减少与蒸发量持续上升,使若尔盖高原径流量与储水量逐年降低,直接减少了若尔盖高原的湿地面积和对黄河上游径流量的补给。基于红原、若尔盖和玛曲站的气象数据和7个水文站的径流量数据(1981-2011年),并对数据序列进行插补与计算,获得若尔盖高原的径流量变化与气候因子的响应关系,进而计算储水量变化。计算结果表明:若尔盖高原向黄河年均补水(67.08±14.90)×108 m 3,并以0.48×108 m 3/a速率持续减少。降水量每减少1 mm将导致黑河与白河的年径流量分别减少0.02×108和0.05×108 m 3。蒸发量每增加1 mm将导致黑河与白河的年径流量分别减少0.12×108和0.27×108 m 3。1981-2011年若尔盖高原的年均储水量为(59.30±18.69)×108 m 3,其年均递减速率为0.49×108 m 3/a。本研究有助于认识若尔盖高原对于黄河上游水资源保障的重要性。
