Projected Changes in Extreme Event Indices for Alaska

As climate has warmed in recent decades, Alaska has experienced a variety of high-impact extreme events that include heat waves, wildfires, coastal storms and freezing rain. Because the warming is projected to continue, it is essential to consider future changes when planning adaptation actions and building resilience. In this study, we synthesize information on future changes in extreme events in Alaska from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations performed as part of Arctic-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). A set of 13 extreme event indices, based on those developed by the World Climate Research Programme’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), are evaluated from the Arctic-CORDEX output for Alaska. Of the 13 indices, six pertain to temperature, five to total precipitation, one to wind and one to snow. The results for locations in seven different climate zones of Alaska include large increases (5˚C - 10˚C) in the temperature thresholds for the five hottest and coldest days of the year, and large increases in warm spell duration and decreases in cold spell duration. Changes in the cold day temperature threshold are generally larger than the changes in the hot day temperature threshold, consistent with the projections of a stronger warming in winter than in summer in Alaska yearly maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts as well as the yearly number of consecutive wet days are projected to increase at all locations. The indices for heavy snow days and high-wind days show mixed changes, although the results indicate increases in heavy snow days at the more northern locations and increases in windy days at coastal locations. The changes in the extreme event indices continue through 2100 under the higher-emission (RCP 8.5) emission scenario, while the changes generally stabilize under the lower-emission (RCP 4.5) scenario. .

Towards a Link between Climate Extremes and Thermodynamic Patterns in the City of Rio de Janeiro-Brazil: Climatological Aspects and Identified Changes

Modification signs in extreme weather events may be directly related to alterations in the thermodynamic panorama of the atmosphere that need to be better understood. This study aimed to make a first interconnection between climate extremes and thermodynamic patterns in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation extreme indices from two surface meteorological stations (ABOV and STCZ) and instability indices based on temperature and humidity from radiosonde observations (SBGL) were employed to investigate changes in the periods 1964-1980 (P1), 1981-2000 (P2), and 2001-2020 (P3). Statistical tests were adopted to determine the significance and magnitude of trends. The frequency of warm (cold) days and warm (cold) nights are increasing (decreasing) in the city. Cold (Warm) extremes are changing with greater magnitude in ABOV (STCZ) than in STCZ (ABOV). In ABOV, there is a significant increase of +84 mm/decade in the rainfall volume associated with severe precipitation (above the 95th percentile) and most extreme precipitation indices show an increase in frequency and intensity. In STCZ, there is a decrease in extreme precipitation until the 1990s, and from there, an increase, showing a wetter climate in the most recent years. It is also verified in SBGL that there is a statistically significant increase (decrease) in air temperature of +0.1°C/decade (-0.2°C/decade) and relative humidity of +1.2%/decade (-3%/decade) at the low and middle (high) troposphere. There is a visible rising trend in most of the evaluated instability indices over the last few decades. The increasing trends of some extreme precipitation indices are probably allied to the precipitable water increasing trend of +1.2 mm/decade.

Changes in extreme temperature events over the Hindu Kush Himalaya during 1961e2015

This study uses the CMA (China Meteorological Administration) global land-surface daily air temperature dataset V1.0 (GLSATD V1.0) to analyze long-term changes in extreme temperature events over the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) during 1961e2015. Results show there was a significant decrease in the number of extreme cold events (cold nights, cold days, and frost days) but a significant increase in the number of extreme warm events (warm nights, warm days, and summer days) over the entire HKH during 1961e2015. For percentile-based indices, trends of extreme events related to minimum temperature (Tmin) were greater in magnitude than those related to maximum temperature (Tmax). For absolute-value based indices, maximum Tmax, minimum Tmin, and summer days all show increasing trends, while frost days and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) show significant decreasing trends. In addition, there was a decrease in extreme cold events in most parts of east HKH, particularly in Southwest China and the Tibetan Plateau, while there was a general increase in extreme warm events over the entire HKH. Finally, the change in extreme cold events in the HKH appears to be more sensitive to elevation (with cold nights and cold days decreasing with elevation), whereas the change in warm extremes (warm nights, warm days, and maximum Tmax) shows no detectable relationship with elevation. Frost days and minimum Tmin also have a good relationship with elevation, and the trend in frost days decreases with an increase in elevation while the trend in minimum Tmin increases with an increase in elevation.

Projected changes in mean and extreme climates over Hindu Kush Himalayan region by 21 CMIP5 models

Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), annual total precipitation when the daily amount exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation (R95p), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day)) over Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are investigated under the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two periods of the 21st century, 2036e2065 and 2066e2095, are selected, with the reference period is considered as 1976e2005. Results show general increase of the mean temperature, TXx and TNn under both scenarios, with the largest increases found during 2066e2095 under RCP8.5. Future precipitation is projected to increase over most part of HKH, except for the northwestern part. Intensification of the precipitation extremes is projected over the region. The uncertainties of mean temperature, TXx and TNn over the HKH1 subregions are the largest compared to the other three subregions and the overall HKH. Besides RX5day during 2036e2065 over HKH1, the uncertainties of R95p and RX5day tend to be larger following the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. The multimodel ensemble medians of temperature and four extreme indices under RCP8.5 are projected to be larger than those under RCP4.5 in each of the subregions.

Changes in extreme precipitation events over the Hindu Kush Himalayan region during 1961e2012

Based on a new multi-source dataset (GLDP-V1.0) recently developed in China Meteorological Administration, we employed precipitation indices including percentile-based indices of light (below the 50th percentile), moderate (between the 50th and 90th percentile), and intense (above the 90th percentile) precipitation, maximum 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day precipitation amounts (RX1DAY, RX3DAY, and RX5DAY, respectively), and consecutive wet and dry days (CWDs and CDDs) to analyze variations in extreme precipitation events in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) during 1961e2012. The main results are presented as follows. Firstly, there was a significant increase in the amount of light and moderate precipitation and number of associated days over various parts of India and northern Tibetan Plateau during 1961e2012; but the intensity of light precipitation decreased significantly in the Hindu Kush and central India, and the regional average intensity also decreased. Secondly, the amount and frequency of intense precipitation mostly increased significantly on the Tibetan Plateau, but there was a heterogeneous change over the remainder of the HKH, and regional average annual intense precipitation amount and frequency significantly increased over the HKH during 1961e2012. Thirdly, regional average RX1DAY, RX3DAY, and RX5DAYall showed significant upward trends during 1961e2012, and there was a significant increased tendency of consecutive wet-days in most parts of the study region; however, trends of consecutive dry-days were mostly opposite to those of consecutive wet-days, with regional averaged consecutive dry-days showing no noticeable trend.

Analysis on Changes of Basic Climatic Elements and Extreme Events in Xinjiang, China during 1961-2010

By using the observation data from 89 weather stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2010, this paper analyzed the basic climatic elements including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, water vapor pressure, and dust storm in the entire Xinjiang and the subareas: North Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountains, and South Xinjiang. The results indicate that from 1961 to 2010 the annual and seasonal mean temperatures in the entire Xinjiang show an increasing trend with the increasing rate rising from south to north. The increasing rate of annual mean minimum temperature is over twice more than that of the annual mean maximum temperature, contributing much to the increase in the annual averages. The magnitude of the decrease rate of low-temperature days is larger than the increase rate of high-temperature days. The increase of warm days and warm nights and the decrease of cold days and cold nights further reveal that the temperature increasing in Xinjiang is higher. In addition, annual and seasonal rainfalls have been increasing. South Xinjiang experiences higher increase in rainfall amounts than North Xinjiang and Tianshan Mountains. Annual rainy days, longest consecutive rainy days, the daily maximum precipitation and extreme precipitation events, annual torrential rain days and amount, annual blizzard days and amount, all show an increasing trend, corresponding to the increasing in annual mean water vapor pressure. This result shows that the humidity has increased with temperature increasing in the past 50 years. The decrease in annual mean wind speed and gale days lessen the impact of dust storm, sandstorm, and floating dust events. The increase in annual rainy days is the cause of the decrease in annual sunshine duration, while the increase in spring sunshine duration corresponds with the decrease in dust weather. Therefore, the increase in precipitation indicators, the decrease in gales and dust weather, and the increasing in sunshine duration in spring will be beneficial to crops growth.

Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

In this study, we document the air temperature and precipitation changes between present-day conditions and those projected for the period 2041-2070 in the state of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) by means of Eta driven by HadCM3 climate model output, considering the variation among its four ensemble members. The main purpose is to support studies of vulnerability and adaptation policy to climate change. In relation to future projections of temperature extremes, the model indicates an increase in average minimum (maximum) temperature of between +1.1°C and +1.4°C (+1.0°C and +1.5°C) in the state by 2070, and it could reach maximum values of between +2.0°C and +3.5°C (+2.5°C and +4.5°C). The model projections also indicate that cold nights and days will be much less frequent in Rio de Janeiro by 2070, while there will be significant increases in warm nights and days. With respect to annual total rainfall, the Northern Region of Rio de Janeiro displays the greatest variation among members, indicating changes ranging from a decrease of -350 mm to an increase of +300 mm during the 21st century. The southern portion of the state has the largest increase in annual total rainfall occurring due to heavy rains, ranging from +50 to +300 mm in the period 2041-2070. Consecutive dry days will increase, which indicates poorly time distributed rainfall, with increased rainfall concentrated over shorter time periods.

Study on the Characteristics of Changes in Air Temperature and Precipitation in Shenyang in Recent 50 Years

Based on the data of monthly average air temperature,extreme maximum,minimum air temperature and precipitation of Shenyang from 1960 to 2009,the climate changes and its characteristics in Shenyang in recent 50 years were comprehensively analyzed and studied.The results showed that the increasing trend of air temperature in recent 50 years was obvious.With the rising of the air temperature,the precipitation in Shenyang City showed a decreasing trend.

Compound extreme events in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1977 to 2018

Extreme climate events threaten human health,economic development,and ecosystems.Many studies have been conducted on extreme precipitation and temperature changes in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin(YZRB).However,little attention has been paid to compound climate extremes.In this study,the variations of wet/warm compound extreme events in summer and dry/cold compound extreme events in winter over the past 42 years in the YZRB were investigated using eight extreme climate indices that were estimated using monthly temperature and precipitation observations.The results showed that the numbers of frost days and ice days tended to decrease on the spatiotemporal scale,while the maximum values of daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature exhibited increasing trends.The frequency of wet/warm compound extreme events was significantly higher from 1998 to 2018 than from 1977 to 1997.Dry/cold compound extreme events became less frequent from 1998 to 2018 than from 1977 to 1997.The rate of increase of wet/warm compound extreme events was about ten times the absolute rate of decrease of dry/cold compound extreme events.With regard to the spatial pattern,the frequency of wet/warm compound extreme events increased significantly in almost all parts of the YZRB,while that of dry/cold compound extreme events decreased across the basin.This study helps to improve our understanding of the changes in compound precipitation and temperature extremes in the YZRB from a multivariable perspective.

Trends in Indices of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in Iran over the Period 1960-2014

Climate extremes can have many negative effects on different sectors. Globally, observations show significant changes in the characteristics of extreme events. We examined trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices in Iran during the period 1960-2014. We present results from 33 quality controlled and homogenous synoptic stations (excluding stations with excessive missing data). For each station, we calculate 27 indices characterizing extreme temperature and precipitation. For all indices (including Rx5DAY, CWD, R95p, R99p, GSL and TXn) positive, negative, and insignificant trends were obtained. Generally, there were negative trends in R10mm, R20mm, R25mm, CDD, PRCPTOT, FD, TN10p, TX10p, CSDI and positive trends in Rx1DAY, SDII, SU25, TR20, TXx, TNn, TNx, TN90p, TX90p and WSDI at most stations. There is a decreasing trend in the magnitude and frequency of cold extremes and an increasing trend in magnitude and frequency of warm extremes over the observational record, which is consistent with previous research reporting the warming trends of the climate.

Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China

An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature （SAT） has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃ （10 yr）-1 to 0.12℃ （10 yr）-1. This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period （1000 1300 AD）. Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events.

Climate change characteristics of Amur River

Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data （from 1953 to 1995） and monthly data （from 1950 to 2010） of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following： the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter; the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.

Basic Features of Climate Change in North China during 1961-2010

The spatial and temporal variations of some important near-surface climate parameters and extreme climate events in North China during 1961-2010 are analyzed by using 94 meteorological stations＇ data in the study area. Results show that the annual mean surface air temperature in North China increased at the rate of 0.36℃ per decade, higher than the national average in the same period. Increasing was particularly significant since the mid-1980s, with maximum increase in the middle and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Increasing rate of the annual mean minimum temperature is much higher than that of the maximum temperature, which results in the decrease of the annual mean diurnal temperature range. Noticeable decrease is also observed in the frequency of cold wave. Annual precipitation shows a slight decreasing trend, with more pronounced decrease in southern Shanxi and eastern Hebei provinces, which is mainly represented as decreasing in contribution rates of rainstorm and heavy storm in flood-season （May to September）. During 1961 -2010, North China is characterized by a noticeable reduction in annual extreme precipitation, and an increase in high-temperature days over most parts, as well as more frequent droughts. There are remarkable reductions in annual sunshine duration and mean wind speed, associated with the most significant reduction of mean wind speed in midwestern and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, North China has experienced a noticeable decrease/increase in annual mean sanddust/haze days during the study period. However, there is no significant trend in fog days, except a pronounced decrease since the 1990s.

Variation of Extreme Precipitation over Large River Basins in China

A new available dataset of daily observational precipitation is used to study the temporal and spatial variability of extreme precipitation events for 1956-2008 in the ten large river basins of China. The maximum daily rainfall and heavy precipitation days （≥50 mm d^-1） are analyzed for the basins of the Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River, Northwest China Rivers, Huaihe River, Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast China Rivers, and Southwest China Rivers. The results indicate that the maximum daily rainfall was increasing in southern river basins, while it was decreasing in northern river basins, which leads to no discernible increasing or decreasing trend in the maximum daily rainfall of whole China,especially 2001. The national averaged heavy precipitation days shows an insignificant increase. However, a rise in heavy precipitation days of southern river basins and a decline of northern river basins are observed.

Characteristics and Changes of Cold Surge Events over China during 1960-2007

This paper demonstrates regional characteristics, a long-term decreasing trend, and decadal variations in the frequency of cold surge events based on daily mean temperature and daily minimum temperature data in China's Mainland from 1960 to 2008. During these 48 years four high frequency centers of cold surge events were located in Xinjiang, central North China, northeast China, and southeast China. A main frequency peak of cold surge events occurs in autumn for the four regions and another peak is detected in spring over northeast China and southeast China. The regional pattern of cold surge frequencies is in accordance with the perturbation kinetic energy distribution in October December, January, and February April. The long-term decreasing trend ( 0.2 times/decade) of cold surge frequencies in northeast China and decadal variations in China are related to the variations of the temperature difference between southern and northern China in the winter monsoon season; these variations are due to the significant rising of winter temperatures in high latitudes.

Detection and Projections of Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

A study on the detection and future projection of climate change in the city of Rio de Janeiro is here presented, based on the analysis of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes. The aim of this study is to provide information on observed and projected extremes in support of studies on impacts and vulnerability assessments required for adaptation strategies to climate change. Observational data from INMET’s weather stations and projections from INPE’s Eta- HadCM3 regional model are used. The observational analyses indicate that rainfall amount associated with heavy rain events is increasing in recent years in the forest region of Rio de Janeiro. An increase in both the frequency of occurrence and in the rainfall amount associated with heavy precipitation are projected until the end of the 21st Century, as are longer dry periods and shorter wet seasons. In regards to temperature, a warming trend is noted (both in past observations and future projections), with higher maximum air temperature and extremes. The average change in annual maximum (minimum) air temperatures may range between 2℃and 5℃(2℃and 4℃) above the current weather values in the late 21st Century. The warm (cold) days and nights are becoming more (less) frequent each year, and for the future climate (2100) it has been projected that about 40% to 70% of the days and 55% to 85% of the nights will be hot. Additionally, it can be foreseen that there will be no longer cold days and nights.

多套降水产品在海南岛的适用性评估

使用卫星遥感技术进行全球范围的降水观测已成为当前热点。然而,热带海岛地区因其气候特殊和地形复杂,遥感降水数据的精度评估尚未充分研究。文章以海南岛为研究区,利用小时尺度的站点数据对CMORPH、CHIRPS、GsMAP、GPM、MSWEP、ERA5-Land和PERSIANN进行多尺度系统评估,分析各类产品在该区域的降水探测能力。结果表明:1)相比于其他5种降水产品,GsMAP和GPM在不同时间尺度上均具有更优表现,相关性强,误差小,对各级降水的探测成功率较高。在3 h尺度上,GPM和GsMAP的相关系数分别为0.53和0.52;在日尺度上,GPM和GsMAP的相关系数分别为0.73和0.74。2)在年降水量对比中,过去20年海南岛的年平均降水量呈现波动中变化趋势,平均值为1776.4 mm/a。CMORPH的年平均值为1765.1 mm/a,与CHM-PRE数据集最为接近,误差较小。3)在空间分布格局研究中,GsMAP的降水量范围为1337.9~2287.0 mm,与站点观测数据(996.9~2368.9 mm)最为接近,呈现东部多于西部,西南山区多于东北平原的环状分布格局,尤其在海南岛东南部的高值中心区域,二者较吻合。4)在降水趋势分析中,CMORPH、ERA5-Land、GPM、MSWEP、CHIRPS和PERSIANN在海南岛部分地区呈现增加趋势,而GsMAP呈现较为强烈的增加趋势。5)在极端降水事件分析中,GPM能较好地模拟海南岛台风降水事件的时空演变特征。因此,在开展海南岛降水研究工作时,GsMAP和GPM是比较合适的选择。

Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Temperature Events in an Arid-Semiarid Region of China and Their Teleconnections with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

With a warming climate,temperature extremes have been a main global issue in recent decades due to their potential influence on the sustainable development of human life and natural ecosystems.In this study,12 indicators of extreme temperature events are used to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution,periodic structure and teleconnections with large-scale atmospheric circulation in Xinjiang,Northwest China by combining wavelet coherence(WTC) analysis based on continuous wavelet transform(CWT) analysis with the sequential Mann-Kendall test.We find that over the past six decades,the climate in Xinjiang has become warmer and has suffered from increases in the frequency of warm extremes and decreases in the frequency of cold extremes.Warm extremes have mainly occurred in the southern Tianshan Mountains surrounding the Tarim Basin and western part of the Taklamakan Desert,and cold extremes have primarily occurred in the southwestern Altai Mountains and northern foot of the Tianshan Mountains.Extreme temperature events,including warm extremes,cold extremes,and other temperature indices,have significant interannual variability,with the main oscillation periods at smaller(2–4-year band),intermediate(4–7-year band),and greater time scales in recent decades.Furthermore,cold-extreme indices,including frost days,cool days,and cool nights all show a clear changepoint during 1990–1997 at the 95% confidence level,and both ice days and cold spell duration indicator have a potential changepoint during 1981–1986.However,the changing points for warmextreme indices are detected during 1992–1998.The temperature variables are significantly correlated with the EI Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation(AO),but less well correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).The phase difference in the WTC spectra is not uniform between temperature extremes and climatic oscillations.Our findings will have important implications for local governments in taking effective measures to mitigate the potential effects of regional climate warming due to human activities in Xinjiang.

Influence of Climate on Soil Organic Carbon in Chinese Paddy Soils

Soil organic carbon(SOC) is a major component of the global carbon cycle and has a potentially large impact on the greenhouse effect. Paddy soils are important agricultural soils worldwide, especially in Asia. Thus, a better understanding of the relationship between SOC of paddy soils and climate variables is crucial to a robust understanding of the potential effect of climate change on the global carbon cycle. A soil profile data set(n = 1490) from the Second National Soil Survey of China conducted from 1979 to 1994 was used to explore the relationships of SOC density with mean annual temperature(MAT) and mean annual precipitation(MAP) in six soil regions and eight paddy soil subgroups. Results showed that SOC density of paddy soils was negatively correlated with MAT and positively correlated with MAP(P < 0.01). The relationships of SOC density with MAT and MAP were weak and varied among the six soil regions and eight paddy soil subgroups. A preliminary assessment of the response of SOC in Chinese paddy soils to climate indicated that climate could lead to a 13% SOC loss from paddy soils. Compared to other soil regions, paddy soils in Northern China will potentially more sensitive to climate change over the next several decades. Paddy soils in Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin could be a potential carbon sink. Reducing the climate impact on paddy soil SOC will mitigate the positive feedback loop between SOC release and global climate change.

21世纪中国温湿复合型热事件及其人口暴露度预估

本研究采用湿黑球温度这一反映温度-湿度协同效应的指标,以区域气候模式预估试验和人口预估数据集为基础,对21世纪典型气候-社会经济情景下中国各等级温湿复合型热事件及其人口暴露度的变化进行了高分辨率预估。结果表明在SSP3-8.5(区域竞争路径)情景下全国总人口数量变化不大,但极端热事件的人口暴露度将大幅增加至基准时段的约3~5倍;在SSP1-2.6(可持续发展路径)情景下全国总人口数量明显下降,各等级高温日数在21世纪末期的增幅仅为SSP3-8.5情景下的约1/5,但极端热事件的人口暴露度仍将有所增加。人口暴露度的变化由气候变化因素主导,而人口变化相关的因素贡献较小。华南沿海地区是全国极端热事件增加最突出的区域。