The feedback collection and analysis has remained an important subject matter for long.The traditional techniques for student feedback analysis are based on questionnaire-based data collection and analysis.However,the...The feedback collection and analysis has remained an important subject matter for long.The traditional techniques for student feedback analysis are based on questionnaire-based data collection and analysis.However,the student expresses their feedback opinions on online social media sites,which need to be analyzed.This study aims at the development of fuzzy-based sentiment analysis system for analyzing student feedback and satisfaction by assigning proper sentiment score to opinion words and polarity shifters present in the input reviews.Our technique computes the sentiment score of student feedback reviews and then applies a fuzzy-logic module to analyze and quantify student’s satisfaction at the fine-grained level.The experimental results reveal that the proposed work has outperformed the baseline studies as well as state-of-the-art machine learning classifiers.展开更多
Goal oriented( GO) methodology is a kind of success oriented system reliability analysis method and has been used widely.The repairable system with dual input closed-loop feedback link( DICLFL) considering shutdown co...Goal oriented( GO) methodology is a kind of success oriented system reliability analysis method and has been used widely.The repairable system with dual input closed-loop feedback link( DICLFL) considering shutdown correlation didn't make reliability analysis accurately based on existing GO methodology. So, a reliability analysis method used to deal with DICLFL considering shutdown correlation is provided based on GO methodology.Firstly, a new operator, which is used to describe DICLFL considering shutdown correlation,whose number is 1,is created and named as Type 9C operator. And then,the formulas of type 9C operator are derived based on Markov process theory. Finally,the new method presented in this paper is adopted to conduct the reliability analysis of an electro-hydraulic servo speed control system. The analysis result is compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and fault tree analysis( FTA). The comparison results show that this new reliability analysis method based on GO methodology is feasible and meaningful for reliability analysis of repairable systems with DICLFL considering shutdown correlation.Meantime,it will be useful for more other applications.展开更多
One of the ingredients of anthropogenic global warming is the existence of a large correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and the temperature. In this work we analyze the original time-ser...One of the ingredients of anthropogenic global warming is the existence of a large correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and the temperature. In this work we analyze the original time-series data that led to the new wave of climate research and test the two hypotheses that might explain this correlation, namely the (more commonly accepted and well-known) greenhouse effect (GHE) and the less-known Henry’s Law (HL). This is done by using the correlation and the temporal features of the data. Our conclusion is that of the two hypotheses the greenhouse effect is less likely, whereas the Henry’s Law hypothesis can easily explain all effects. First the proportionality constant in the correlation is correct for HL and is about two orders of magnitude wrong for GHE. Moreover, GHE cannot readily explain the concurring methane signals observed. On the temporal scale, we see that GHE has difficulty in the apparent negative time lag between cause and effect, whereas in HL this is of correct sign and magnitude, since it is outgasing of gases from oceans. Introducing feedback into the GHE model can overcome some of these problems, but it introduces highly instable and chaotic behavior in the system, something that is not observed. The HL model does not need feedback.展开更多
Stream ciphers based on linear feedback shift register(LFSR)are suitable for constrained environments,such as satellite communications,radio frequency identification devices tag,sensor networks and Internet of Things,...Stream ciphers based on linear feedback shift register(LFSR)are suitable for constrained environments,such as satellite communications,radio frequency identification devices tag,sensor networks and Internet of Things,due to its simple hardware structures,high speed encryption and lower power consumption.LFSR,as a cryptographic primitive,has been used to generate a maximum period sequence.Because the switching of the status bits is regular,the power consumption of the LFSR is correlated in a linear way.As a result,the power consumption characteristics of stream cipher based on LFSR are vulnerable to leaking initialization vectors under the power attacks.In this paper,a new design of LFSR against power attacks is proposed.The power consumption characteristics of LFSR can be masked by using an additional LFSR and confused by adding a new filter Boolean function and a flip-flop.The design method has been implemented easily by circuits in this new design in comparison with the others.展开更多
In order to solve the problem of reliability modeling and the analysis of complex systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks,a new reliability analysis method for repairable systems with multiple closed-loop feedback...In order to solve the problem of reliability modeling and the analysis of complex systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks,a new reliability analysis method for repairable systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks is proposed based on the goal-oriented(GO)methodology.Firstly,the basic theories and advantages of GO method are introduced.Secondly,a type-24B multiple closed-loop feedback structure operator is proposed through GO method with its operation formula given,which expands the types of GO method operators and the application scope of their reliability analysis.Finally,taking a certain type of diesel engine fuel supply system an example,the quantitative and qualitative analysis is carried out through GO method,Monte Carlo simulation as well as FTA respectively.The availability results verify the availability of the proposed type-24B operator in the reliability analysis of multiple closed-loop feedback systems.The qualitative analysis results indicate the accuracy and usability of the GO method as a qualitative analysis method.展开更多
Based on a modified Lorenz system, a relatively simple four-dimensional continuous autonomous hyperchaotic system is proposed by introducing a state feedback controller. The system consists of four coupled first-order...Based on a modified Lorenz system, a relatively simple four-dimensional continuous autonomous hyperchaotic system is proposed by introducing a state feedback controller. The system consists of four coupled first-order ordinary differential equations with three nonlinear cross-product terms. Some dynamical properties of this hyperchaotic system, including equlibria, stability, Lyapunov exponent spectrum and bifurcation, are analysed in detail. Moreover, an electronic circuit diagram is designed for demonstrating the existence of the hyperchaos, and verifying computer simulation results.展开更多
The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with ...The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with traditional probability techniques based on the linear chain of events. However, it could not comprehensively analyze system safety problems, especially in operating environment, interaction of subsystems, and human factors. Thus,we consider system safety as a control problem based on the system-theoretic accident model, the processes(STAMP) model and the system theoretic process analysis(STPA) technique to compensate the deficiency of traditional techniques. Meanwhile,system safety simulation is considered as system control simulation, and Monte Carlo methods are used which consider the range of uncertain parameters and operation deviation to quantitatively study system safety influence factors in control simulation. Firstly,we construct the STAMP model and STPA feedback control loop of the wheel brake system based on the system functional requirement. Then four unsafe control actions are identified, and causes of them are analyzed. Finally, we construct the Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze different scenarios under disturbance. The results provide a basis for choosing corresponding process model variables in constructing the context table and show that appropriate brake strategies could prevent hazards in aircraft landing taxiing.展开更多
This paper deals mainly with the influence of lane changing behaviours on the stability of two-lane traffic flow under a periodic boundary condition. Following the description of an optimal velocity model for two vehi...This paper deals mainly with the influence of lane changing behaviours on the stability of two-lane traffic flow under a periodic boundary condition. Following the description of an optimal velocity model for two vehicle groups and the derivation of their stability conditions, the feedback signals, which involve information about vehicles from both lanes acting on the two-lane traffic system, are introduced into the optimal velocity model. The control signals play a role in alleviating the traffic jam only if the traffic state is in congestion, and their role will vanish if the traffic state is in the steady state. The numerical simulations show that lane changing behaviours can break the steady state of two-lane traffic flow and aggravate the traffic disturbance, but the control method would successfully suppress the traffic jam eventually, which implies that the conclusions obtained here have certain theoretical and practical significance.展开更多
The development of oasis along the edge of the Tengerli Desert, where underground water is available, is one of the major strategies to reallocate 'ecological refuges' from their seriously degraded grasslands ...The development of oasis along the edge of the Tengerli Desert, where underground water is available, is one of the major strategies to reallocate 'ecological refuges' from their seriously degraded grasslands to agriculturally cultivable land. Yet, underground water resources, the major constraint, hate not been fully integrated in the development process. Therefore, the decline of water resources and deterioration of water quality caused by over-consumption of water resources has begun to hinder further development and has even fed to the abandonment of some oasis. A system dynamics modeling approach is applied to analyze the water use and water management structures in Yaoba Oasis as a case study. The study attempts to identify the characteristics of major feedback loops, which dominate the over-use of underground water resources leading to the deterioration of water resources in quantity and quality.展开更多
A distributed feedback fiber laser (DFB FL) sensor system with ultra-high resolution is described. The sensor is made by writing distributed feedback structures into a high gain active fiber, and the system employs ...A distributed feedback fiber laser (DFB FL) sensor system with ultra-high resolution is described. The sensor is made by writing distributed feedback structures into a high gain active fiber, and the system employs an unbalanced Michelson interferometer to translate laser wavelength shifts induced by weak measurands into phase shifts. A digital phase generated carrier demodulation scheme is introduced to achieve ultra-high resolution interrogation. A detailed noise analysis of the system is presented, and it is shown that the system resolution is limited by the frequency noise of the DFB FL.展开更多
In this work a method called “signal flow graph (SFG)” is presented. A signal-flow graph describes a system by its signal flow by directed and weighted graph;the signals are applied to nodes and functions on edges. ...In this work a method called “signal flow graph (SFG)” is presented. A signal-flow graph describes a system by its signal flow by directed and weighted graph;the signals are applied to nodes and functions on edges. The edges of the signal flow graph are small processing units, through which the incoming signals are processed in a certain form. In this case, the result is sent to the outgoing node. The SFG allows a good visual inspection into complex feedback problems. Furthermore such a presentation allows for a clear and unambiguous description of a generating system, for example, a netview. A Signal Flow Graph (SFG) allows a fast and practical network analysis based on a clear data presentation in graphic format of the mathematical linear equations of the circuit. During creation of a SFG the Direct Current-Case (DC-Case) was observed since the correct current and voltage directions was drawn from zero frequency. In addition, the mathematical axioms, which are based on field algebra, are declared. In this work we show you in addition: How we check our SFG whether it is a consistent system or not. A signal flow graph can be verified by generating the identity of the signal flow graph itself, illustrated by the inverse signal flow graph (SFG−1). Two signal flow graphs are always generated from one circuit, so that the signal flow diagram already presented in previous sections corresponds to only half of the solution. The other half of the solution is the so-called identity, which represents the (SFG−1). If these two graphs are superposed with one another, so called 1-edges are created at the node points. In Boolean algebra, these 1-edges are given the value 1, whereas this value can be identified with a zero in the field algebra.展开更多
利用昆明站1991-2020年近30年逐日降水数据计算昆明雨季(5-10月)的起止时期,进一步确定昆明市雨季的长短。又基于云南省和昆明市的统计年鉴数据,使用年末总人口、城市建成区面积、城镇化率、人均GDP等城市发展因子确定昆明的城市发展进...利用昆明站1991-2020年近30年逐日降水数据计算昆明雨季(5-10月)的起止时期,进一步确定昆明市雨季的长短。又基于云南省和昆明市的统计年鉴数据,使用年末总人口、城市建成区面积、城镇化率、人均GDP等城市发展因子确定昆明的城市发展进程,将昆明市的城市发展进程划分为缓慢发展期(1991-2003年)和快速发展期(2004-2020年),进而分析比较两段时期中昆明市雨季长短的特征和差异,采用统计分析、小波分析和M-K突变检验等综合分析方法,系统分析了昆明市雨季长短的时间变化特征,并用灰色关联度分析方法分析了昆明市雨季长短与城市发展的关联性。结果表明,1991-2020年昆明市的雨季开始日呈逐渐偏晚的趋势,而雨季结束日呈逐渐偏早的趋势,总体上雨季长度呈逐渐缩短的趋势;小波系数分析结果显示,在8年以下的时间尺度上,昆明市雨季长短变化的周期不存在明显的规律性,在17年时间尺度上的周期变化明显,呈偏短-偏长-偏短-偏长-偏短的5个循环交替,2003-2008年、 2014-2017年雨季增长,1991-2002年、 2009-2012年、 2018-2020年雨季缩短,2018-2020年等值线未闭合说明还有进一步缩短的趋势。通过M-K检验表明昆明市的雨季长短在1991-2020年间出现4次突变,分别发生在2002年、 2008年、 2012年和2017年。从昆明城市发展与雨季长短的关系来看,昆明城市发展缓慢期的雨季长短的变化趋势较为平稳,而城市发展快速期2004年以后,昆明市雨季长度缩短的变化明显,并随着城市发展进程的加快其极端波动性更加明显。运用SPSS(Statistical Product and Service Solutions)软件对未来10年昆明的雨季长短进行预测,结果显示未来10年昆明雨季长短将持续偏短的趋势。在灰色关联度分辨率为0.5时,表征城市发展进程的4个因子对昆明雨季长短变化均产生不同程度影响,其关联度系数都在0.70以上,表明昆明城市发展与雨季长短显著关联性,其中影响最大的因子是年末总人口,最小为人均GDP,灰色关联度分别为0.88和0.70,属于高度关联和显著关联。对4个因子的关联系数进行排序为:年末总人口>城镇化率>城市建成区面积>人均GDP。展开更多
针对智能网联环境下传感器感知和车车通信(vehicle to vehicle,V2V)都存在时延的问题,提出一种考虑双时延和多前车反馈(dual delay multiple look-ahead full velocity difference,DD-MLFVD)的智能网联汽车跟驰模型.根据智能网联汽车感...针对智能网联环境下传感器感知和车车通信(vehicle to vehicle,V2V)都存在时延的问题,提出一种考虑双时延和多前车反馈(dual delay multiple look-ahead full velocity difference,DD-MLFVD)的智能网联汽车跟驰模型.根据智能网联汽车感知特性引入双时延信息,结合多前车速度差和期望速度信息提出DD-MLFVD模型.通过微小扰动法求解DD-MLFVD模型的临界稳定性条件,同时结合模型参数研究前车数量和时延大小对模型稳定域的影响.利用直道场景对模型进行仿真分析,着重研究变扰动和变时延场景下DD-MLFVD对交通流的稳定效果.结果表明:面对复杂扰动影响,DD-MLFVD模型能够较好吸收扰动,可提升交通流的稳定性.展开更多
文摘The feedback collection and analysis has remained an important subject matter for long.The traditional techniques for student feedback analysis are based on questionnaire-based data collection and analysis.However,the student expresses their feedback opinions on online social media sites,which need to be analyzed.This study aims at the development of fuzzy-based sentiment analysis system for analyzing student feedback and satisfaction by assigning proper sentiment score to opinion words and polarity shifters present in the input reviews.Our technique computes the sentiment score of student feedback reviews and then applies a fuzzy-logic module to analyze and quantify student’s satisfaction at the fine-grained level.The experimental results reveal that the proposed work has outperformed the baseline studies as well as state-of-the-art machine learning classifiers.
基金Technical Basis Projects of China's MIIT(Nos.ZQ092012B003,2012090003)
文摘Goal oriented( GO) methodology is a kind of success oriented system reliability analysis method and has been used widely.The repairable system with dual input closed-loop feedback link( DICLFL) considering shutdown correlation didn't make reliability analysis accurately based on existing GO methodology. So, a reliability analysis method used to deal with DICLFL considering shutdown correlation is provided based on GO methodology.Firstly, a new operator, which is used to describe DICLFL considering shutdown correlation,whose number is 1,is created and named as Type 9C operator. And then,the formulas of type 9C operator are derived based on Markov process theory. Finally,the new method presented in this paper is adopted to conduct the reliability analysis of an electro-hydraulic servo speed control system. The analysis result is compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and fault tree analysis( FTA). The comparison results show that this new reliability analysis method based on GO methodology is feasible and meaningful for reliability analysis of repairable systems with DICLFL considering shutdown correlation.Meantime,it will be useful for more other applications.
文摘One of the ingredients of anthropogenic global warming is the existence of a large correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and the temperature. In this work we analyze the original time-series data that led to the new wave of climate research and test the two hypotheses that might explain this correlation, namely the (more commonly accepted and well-known) greenhouse effect (GHE) and the less-known Henry’s Law (HL). This is done by using the correlation and the temporal features of the data. Our conclusion is that of the two hypotheses the greenhouse effect is less likely, whereas the Henry’s Law hypothesis can easily explain all effects. First the proportionality constant in the correlation is correct for HL and is about two orders of magnitude wrong for GHE. Moreover, GHE cannot readily explain the concurring methane signals observed. On the temporal scale, we see that GHE has difficulty in the apparent negative time lag between cause and effect, whereas in HL this is of correct sign and magnitude, since it is outgasing of gases from oceans. Introducing feedback into the GHE model can overcome some of these problems, but it introduces highly instable and chaotic behavior in the system, something that is not observed. The HL model does not need feedback.
文摘Stream ciphers based on linear feedback shift register(LFSR)are suitable for constrained environments,such as satellite communications,radio frequency identification devices tag,sensor networks and Internet of Things,due to its simple hardware structures,high speed encryption and lower power consumption.LFSR,as a cryptographic primitive,has been used to generate a maximum period sequence.Because the switching of the status bits is regular,the power consumption of the LFSR is correlated in a linear way.As a result,the power consumption characteristics of stream cipher based on LFSR are vulnerable to leaking initialization vectors under the power attacks.In this paper,a new design of LFSR against power attacks is proposed.The power consumption characteristics of LFSR can be masked by using an additional LFSR and confused by adding a new filter Boolean function and a flip-flop.The design method has been implemented easily by circuits in this new design in comparison with the others.
基金supported by the Special Support Project of SASTIND and Technologyof SASTIND(No.JSZL2019XXXB001)。
文摘In order to solve the problem of reliability modeling and the analysis of complex systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks,a new reliability analysis method for repairable systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks is proposed based on the goal-oriented(GO)methodology.Firstly,the basic theories and advantages of GO method are introduced.Secondly,a type-24B multiple closed-loop feedback structure operator is proposed through GO method with its operation formula given,which expands the types of GO method operators and the application scope of their reliability analysis.Finally,taking a certain type of diesel engine fuel supply system an example,the quantitative and qualitative analysis is carried out through GO method,Monte Carlo simulation as well as FTA respectively.The availability results verify the availability of the proposed type-24B operator in the reliability analysis of multiple closed-loop feedback systems.The qualitative analysis results indicate the accuracy and usability of the GO method as a qualitative analysis method.
基金Project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province, China (Grant No Y105175) and the Science investigation Foundation of Hangzhou Dianzi University, China (Grant No KYS051505010).
文摘Based on a modified Lorenz system, a relatively simple four-dimensional continuous autonomous hyperchaotic system is proposed by introducing a state feedback controller. The system consists of four coupled first-order ordinary differential equations with three nonlinear cross-product terms. Some dynamical properties of this hyperchaotic system, including equlibria, stability, Lyapunov exponent spectrum and bifurcation, are analysed in detail. Moreover, an electronic circuit diagram is designed for demonstrating the existence of the hyperchaos, and verifying computer simulation results.
文摘The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with traditional probability techniques based on the linear chain of events. However, it could not comprehensively analyze system safety problems, especially in operating environment, interaction of subsystems, and human factors. Thus,we consider system safety as a control problem based on the system-theoretic accident model, the processes(STAMP) model and the system theoretic process analysis(STPA) technique to compensate the deficiency of traditional techniques. Meanwhile,system safety simulation is considered as system control simulation, and Monte Carlo methods are used which consider the range of uncertain parameters and operation deviation to quantitatively study system safety influence factors in control simulation. Firstly,we construct the STAMP model and STPA feedback control loop of the wheel brake system based on the system functional requirement. Then four unsafe control actions are identified, and causes of them are analyzed. Finally, we construct the Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze different scenarios under disturbance. The results provide a basis for choosing corresponding process model variables in constructing the context table and show that appropriate brake strategies could prevent hazards in aircraft landing taxiing.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 70971094)the National Natural Science Youth Foundation of China (Grant No. 50908155)the Key Project of Tianjin Municipal Science and Technology Support Program,China (Grant No. 08ZCKFSF01000)
文摘This paper deals mainly with the influence of lane changing behaviours on the stability of two-lane traffic flow under a periodic boundary condition. Following the description of an optimal velocity model for two vehicle groups and the derivation of their stability conditions, the feedback signals, which involve information about vehicles from both lanes acting on the two-lane traffic system, are introduced into the optimal velocity model. The control signals play a role in alleviating the traffic jam only if the traffic state is in congestion, and their role will vanish if the traffic state is in the steady state. The numerical simulations show that lane changing behaviours can break the steady state of two-lane traffic flow and aggravate the traffic disturbance, but the control method would successfully suppress the traffic jam eventually, which implies that the conclusions obtained here have certain theoretical and practical significance.
文摘The development of oasis along the edge of the Tengerli Desert, where underground water is available, is one of the major strategies to reallocate 'ecological refuges' from their seriously degraded grasslands to agriculturally cultivable land. Yet, underground water resources, the major constraint, hate not been fully integrated in the development process. Therefore, the decline of water resources and deterioration of water quality caused by over-consumption of water resources has begun to hinder further development and has even fed to the abandonment of some oasis. A system dynamics modeling approach is applied to analyze the water use and water management structures in Yaoba Oasis as a case study. The study attempts to identify the characteristics of major feedback loops, which dominate the over-use of underground water resources leading to the deterioration of water resources in quantity and quality.
基金supported by the National 863 Projects under Grant No. 2007AA03Z415.
文摘A distributed feedback fiber laser (DFB FL) sensor system with ultra-high resolution is described. The sensor is made by writing distributed feedback structures into a high gain active fiber, and the system employs an unbalanced Michelson interferometer to translate laser wavelength shifts induced by weak measurands into phase shifts. A digital phase generated carrier demodulation scheme is introduced to achieve ultra-high resolution interrogation. A detailed noise analysis of the system is presented, and it is shown that the system resolution is limited by the frequency noise of the DFB FL.
文摘In this work a method called “signal flow graph (SFG)” is presented. A signal-flow graph describes a system by its signal flow by directed and weighted graph;the signals are applied to nodes and functions on edges. The edges of the signal flow graph are small processing units, through which the incoming signals are processed in a certain form. In this case, the result is sent to the outgoing node. The SFG allows a good visual inspection into complex feedback problems. Furthermore such a presentation allows for a clear and unambiguous description of a generating system, for example, a netview. A Signal Flow Graph (SFG) allows a fast and practical network analysis based on a clear data presentation in graphic format of the mathematical linear equations of the circuit. During creation of a SFG the Direct Current-Case (DC-Case) was observed since the correct current and voltage directions was drawn from zero frequency. In addition, the mathematical axioms, which are based on field algebra, are declared. In this work we show you in addition: How we check our SFG whether it is a consistent system or not. A signal flow graph can be verified by generating the identity of the signal flow graph itself, illustrated by the inverse signal flow graph (SFG−1). Two signal flow graphs are always generated from one circuit, so that the signal flow diagram already presented in previous sections corresponds to only half of the solution. The other half of the solution is the so-called identity, which represents the (SFG−1). If these two graphs are superposed with one another, so called 1-edges are created at the node points. In Boolean algebra, these 1-edges are given the value 1, whereas this value can be identified with a zero in the field algebra.
文摘利用昆明站1991-2020年近30年逐日降水数据计算昆明雨季(5-10月)的起止时期,进一步确定昆明市雨季的长短。又基于云南省和昆明市的统计年鉴数据,使用年末总人口、城市建成区面积、城镇化率、人均GDP等城市发展因子确定昆明的城市发展进程,将昆明市的城市发展进程划分为缓慢发展期(1991-2003年)和快速发展期(2004-2020年),进而分析比较两段时期中昆明市雨季长短的特征和差异,采用统计分析、小波分析和M-K突变检验等综合分析方法,系统分析了昆明市雨季长短的时间变化特征,并用灰色关联度分析方法分析了昆明市雨季长短与城市发展的关联性。结果表明,1991-2020年昆明市的雨季开始日呈逐渐偏晚的趋势,而雨季结束日呈逐渐偏早的趋势,总体上雨季长度呈逐渐缩短的趋势;小波系数分析结果显示,在8年以下的时间尺度上,昆明市雨季长短变化的周期不存在明显的规律性,在17年时间尺度上的周期变化明显,呈偏短-偏长-偏短-偏长-偏短的5个循环交替,2003-2008年、 2014-2017年雨季增长,1991-2002年、 2009-2012年、 2018-2020年雨季缩短,2018-2020年等值线未闭合说明还有进一步缩短的趋势。通过M-K检验表明昆明市的雨季长短在1991-2020年间出现4次突变,分别发生在2002年、 2008年、 2012年和2017年。从昆明城市发展与雨季长短的关系来看,昆明城市发展缓慢期的雨季长短的变化趋势较为平稳,而城市发展快速期2004年以后,昆明市雨季长度缩短的变化明显,并随着城市发展进程的加快其极端波动性更加明显。运用SPSS(Statistical Product and Service Solutions)软件对未来10年昆明的雨季长短进行预测,结果显示未来10年昆明雨季长短将持续偏短的趋势。在灰色关联度分辨率为0.5时,表征城市发展进程的4个因子对昆明雨季长短变化均产生不同程度影响,其关联度系数都在0.70以上,表明昆明城市发展与雨季长短显著关联性,其中影响最大的因子是年末总人口,最小为人均GDP,灰色关联度分别为0.88和0.70,属于高度关联和显著关联。对4个因子的关联系数进行排序为:年末总人口>城镇化率>城市建成区面积>人均GDP。
文摘针对智能网联环境下传感器感知和车车通信(vehicle to vehicle,V2V)都存在时延的问题,提出一种考虑双时延和多前车反馈(dual delay multiple look-ahead full velocity difference,DD-MLFVD)的智能网联汽车跟驰模型.根据智能网联汽车感知特性引入双时延信息,结合多前车速度差和期望速度信息提出DD-MLFVD模型.通过微小扰动法求解DD-MLFVD模型的临界稳定性条件,同时结合模型参数研究前车数量和时延大小对模型稳定域的影响.利用直道场景对模型进行仿真分析,着重研究变扰动和变时延场景下DD-MLFVD对交通流的稳定效果.结果表明:面对复杂扰动影响,DD-MLFVD模型能够较好吸收扰动,可提升交通流的稳定性.