Convective processes affect large-scale environments through cloud-radiation interaction, cloud micro- physical processes, and surface rainfall processes. Over the last three decades, cloud-resolving models (CRMs) h...Convective processes affect large-scale environments through cloud-radiation interaction, cloud micro- physical processes, and surface rainfall processes. Over the last three decades, cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have demonstrated to be capable of simulating convective-radiative responses to an imposed large-scale forcing. The CRM-produced cloud and radiative properties have been utilized to study the convective- related processes and their ensemble effects on large-scale circulations. This review the recent progress on the understanding of convective processes with the use of CRM simulations, including precipitation processes; cloud microphysical and radiative processes; dynamical processes; precipitation efficiency; diurnal variations of tropical oceanic convection; local-scale atmosphere-ocean coupling processes; and tropical convective-radiative equilibrium states. Two different ongoing applications of CRMs to general circulation models (GCMs) are discussed: replacing convection and cloud schemes for studying the interaction between cloud systems and large-scale circulation, and improving the schemes for climate simulations.展开更多
Water vapor, cloud, and surface rainfall budgets associated with the landfall of Typhoon Krosa on 6-8 October 2007 are analyzed based on a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated with...Water vapor, cloud, and surface rainfall budgets associated with the landfall of Typhoon Krosa on 6-8 October 2007 are analyzed based on a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated with imposed zonally-uniform vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal temperature, and vapor advection from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data. The simulation data that are validated with observations are examined to study physical causes associated with surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The time- and domain-mean analysis shows that when Krosa approached the eastern coast of China on 6 October, the water vapor convergence over land caused a local atmospheric moistening and a net condensation that further produced surface rainfall and an increase of cloud hydrometeor concentration. Meanwhile, latent heating was balanced by advective cooling and a local atmospheric warming. One day later, the enhancement of net condensation led to an increase of surface rainfall and a local atmospheric drying, while the water vapor convergence weakened as a result of the landfall-induced deprivation of water vapor flux. At the same time, the latent heating is mainly compensated the advective cooling. Further weakening of vapor convergence on 8 October enhanced the local atmospheric drying while the net condensation and associated surface rainfall was maintained. The latent heating is balanced by advective cooling and a local atmospheric cooling.展开更多
Impacts of initial conditions on cloud-resolving model simulations are investigated using a series of sensitivity experiments. Five experiments with perturbed initial temperature, moisture, and cloud conditions are co...Impacts of initial conditions on cloud-resolving model simulations are investigated using a series of sensitivity experiments. Five experiments with perturbed initial temperature, moisture, and cloud conditions are conducted and compared to the control experiment. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind observed and derived from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). The results indicate that model predictions of rainfall are much more sensitive to the initial conditions than those of temperature and moisture. Further analyses of the surface rainfall equation and the moisture and cloud hydrometeor budgets reveal that the calculations of vapor condensation and deposition rates in the model account for the large sensitivities in rainfall simulations.展开更多
ABSTRACT Rainfall responses to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were investigated through the analysis of two pairs of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments. One pair of experi...ABSTRACT Rainfall responses to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were investigated through the analysis of two pairs of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments. One pair of experiments simulated pre-summer heavy rainfall over southern China around the summer solstice, whereas the other pair of experiments simulated tropical rainfall around the winter solstice. The analysis of the time and model domain mean heat budget revealed that the enhanced local atmospheric warming was associated with doubled carbon dioxide through the weakened infrared radiative cooling during the summer solstice. The weakened mean pre-summer rainfall corresponded to the weakened mean infrared radiative cooling. Doubled carbon dioxide increased the mean tropical atmospheric warming via the enhanced mean latent heat in correspondence with the strengthened mean infrared radiative cooling during the winter solstice. The enhanced mean tropical rainfall was associated with the increased mean latent heat.展开更多
The detailed surface rainfall processes associated with landfalling typhoon Kaemi(2006) are investigated based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated for 6 days...The detailed surface rainfall processes associated with landfalling typhoon Kaemi(2006) are investigated based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated for 6 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity,zonal wind,horizontal temperature and vapor advection from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data. The simulation data are validated with observations in terms of surface rain rate. The Root-Mean-Squared (RMS) difference in surface rain rate between the simulation and the gauge observations is 0.660 mm h-1,which is smaller than the standard deviations of both the simulated rain rate (0.753 mm h-1) and the observed rain rate (0.833 mm h-1). The simulation data are then used to study the physical causes associated with the detailed surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The results show that time averaged and model domain-mean Ps mainly comes from large-scale convergence ( QW VF) and local vapor loss (positive QW VT). Large underestimation (about 15%) of Ps will occur if QW VT and QC M(cloud source/sink) are not considered as contributors to Ps. QW VF accounts for the variation of Ps during most of the integration time,while it is not always a contributor to Ps. Sometimes surface rainfall could occur when divergence is dominant with local vapor loss to be a contributor to Ps. Surface rainfall is a result of multi-timescale interactions. QW VE possesses the longest time scale and the lowest frequency of variation with time and may exert impact on Ps on longer time scales. QW VF possesses the second longest time scale and lowest frequency and can explain most of the variation of Ps. QW VT and QC M possess shorter time scales and higher frequencies,which can explain more detailed variations in Ps. Partitioning analysis shows that stratiform rainfall is dominant from the morning of 26 July till the late night of 27 July. After that,convective rainfall dominates till about 1000 LST 28 July. Before 28 July,the variations of QW VTin rainfall-free regions contribute less to that of the domain-mean QW VT while after that they contribute much,which is consistent to the corresponding variations in their fractional coverage. The variations of QW VF in rainfall regions are the main contributors to that of the domain-mean QW VF,then the main contributors to the surface rain rate before the afternoon of 28 July.展开更多
This study investigates the effects of vertical wind shear on the torrential rainfall response to the large-scale forcing using a rainfall separation analysis of a pair of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensiti...This study investigates the effects of vertical wind shear on the torrential rainfall response to the large-scale forcing using a rainfall separation analysis of a pair of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments for a pre-summer heavy rainfall event over southern China from 3-8 June 2008 coupled with National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/Global Data Assimilation System(GDAS) data.The rainfall partitioning analysis based on the surface rainfall budget indicates that the exclusion of vertical wind shear decreases the contribution to total rainfall from the largest contributor,which is the rainfall associated with local atmospheric drying,water vapor divergence,and hydrometeor loss/convergence,through the reduction of the rainfall area and reduced rainfall during the rainfall event.The removal of vertical wind shear increases the contribution to total rainfall from the rainfall associated with local atmospheric drying,water vapor convergence,and hydrometeor loss/convergence through the expansion of the rainfall area and enhanced rainfall.The elimination of vertical wind shear enhances heavy rainfall and expands its area,whereas it reduces moderate rainfall and its area.展开更多
The decorrelation length(Lcf) has been widely used to describe the behavior of vertical overlap of clouds in general circulation models(GCMs); however, it has been a challenge to associate Lcf with the large-scale...The decorrelation length(Lcf) has been widely used to describe the behavior of vertical overlap of clouds in general circulation models(GCMs); however, it has been a challenge to associate Lcf with the large-scale meteorological conditions during cloud evolution. This study explored the relationship between Lcf and the strength of atmospheric convection in the tropics based on output from a global cloud-resolving model. Lcf tends to increase with vertical velocity in the mid-troposphere(w500) at locations of ascent, but shows little or no dependency on w500 at locations of descent. A representation of Lcf as a function of vertical velocity is obtained, with a linear regression in ascending regions and a constant value in descending regions. This simple and dynamic-related representation of Lcf leads to a significant improvement in simulation of both cloud cover and radiation fields compared with traditional overlap treatments. This work presents a physically justifiable approach to depicting cloud overlap in the tropics in GCMs.展开更多
Recent decades have witnessed the rapid development of cloud-system resolving models (CRM), which are now capable of simulating cloud systems and accompanying interactions on scales up to global, albeit in the latte...Recent decades have witnessed the rapid development of cloud-system resolving models (CRM), which are now capable of simulating cloud systems and accompanying interactions on scales up to global, albeit in the latter application small- scale convection (cumulus) remains unresolved. The implication of such a truncation is not understood. The CRM approach has its roots in non-hydrostatic cloud models developed a generation ago for simulating individual cumulonimbus in integrations lasting about an hour Advances in computer capacity enable CRMs to be run with progressively larger computational domains and be integrated for weeks or months,展开更多
安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事...安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。展开更多
Simulated regional precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events, and the regional hydrologic budgets over the western North Pacific region during the period from May to June 2008 were investigated with the h...Simulated regional precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events, and the regional hydrologic budgets over the western North Pacific region during the period from May to June 2008 were investigated with the high-resolution (4-km grid spacing) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF v3.2.1) model with explicit cloud microphysics. The model initial and boundary conditions were derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis 2 data. The model precipitation results were evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 product. The results show that the WRF simulations can reason- ably reproduce the spatial distributions of daily mean precipitation and rainy days. However, the simulated frequency distributions of rainy days showed an overestimation of light precipitation, an underestimation of moderate to heavy precipitation, but a good representation of extreme precipitation. The downscaling approach was able to add value to the very heavy precipitation over the ocean since the convective processes are resolved by the high-resolution cloud-resolving model. Moreover, the water vapor budget analysis indi- cates that heavy precipitation is contributed mostly by the stronger moisture convergence; whereas, in less convective periods, the precipitation is more influenced by the surface evaporation. The simulated water vapor budgets imply the importance in the tropical monsoon region of cloud microphysics that affects the precipitation, atmospheric latent heating and, subsequently, the large-scale circulation.展开更多
Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,...Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.展开更多
Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnectio...Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.展开更多
Hypoxia is a typical feature of the tumor microenvironment,one of the most critical factors affecting cell behavior and tumor progression.However,the lack of tumor models able to precisely emulate natural brain tumor ...Hypoxia is a typical feature of the tumor microenvironment,one of the most critical factors affecting cell behavior and tumor progression.However,the lack of tumor models able to precisely emulate natural brain tumor tissue has impeded the study of the effects of hypoxia on the progression and growth of tumor cells.This study reports a three-dimensional(3D)brain tumor model obtained by encapsulating U87MG(U87)cells in a hydrogel containing type I collagen.It also documents the effect of various oxygen concentrations(1%,7%,and 21%)in the culture environment on U87 cell morphology,proliferation,viability,cell cycle,apoptosis rate,and migration.Finally,it compares two-dimensional(2D)and 3D cultures.For comparison purposes,cells cultured in flat culture dishes were used as the control(2D model).Cells cultured in the 3D model proliferated more slowly but had a higher apoptosis rate and proportion of cells in the resting phase(G0 phase)/gap I phase(G1 phase)than those cultured in the 2D model.Besides,the two models yielded significantly different cell morphologies.Finally,hypoxia(e.g.,1%O2)affected cell morphology,slowed cell growth,reduced cell viability,and increased the apoptosis rate in the 3D model.These results indicate that the constructed 3D model is effective for investigating the effects of biological and chemical factors on cell morphology and function,and can be more representative of the tumor microenvironment than 2D culture systems.The developed 3D glioblastoma tumor model is equally applicable to other studies in pharmacology and pathology.展开更多
Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse ...Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse the disease itself.Stem cell therapy has a regenerative effect and is being actively studied as a candidate for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.Mesenchymal stem cells are considered a promising option due to fewer ethical concerns,a lower risk of immune rejection,and a lower risk of teratogenicity.We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the therapeutic effects of mesenchymal stem cells and their derivatives on motor function,memory,and preservation of dopamine rgic neurons in a Parkinson’s disease animal model.We searched bibliographic databases(PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,CENTRAL,Scopus,and Web of Science)to identify articles and included only pee r-reviewed in vivo interve ntional animal studies published in any language through J une 28,2023.The study utilized the random-effect model to estimate the 95%confidence intervals(CI)of the standard mean differences(SMD)between the treatment and control groups.We use the systematic review center for laboratory animal expe rimentation’s risk of bias tool and the collaborative approach to meta-analysis and review of animal studies checklist for study quality assessment.A total of 33studies with data from 840 Parkinson’s disease model animals were included in the meta-analysis.Treatment with mesenchymal stem cells significantly improved motor function as assessed by the amphetamine-induced rotational test.Among the stem cell types,the bone marrow MSCs with neurotrophic factor group showed la rgest effect size(SMD[95%CI]=-6.21[-9.50 to-2.93],P=0.0001,I^(2)=0.0%).The stem cell treatment group had significantly more tyrosine hydroxylase positive dopamine rgic neurons in the striatum([95%CI]=1.04[0.59 to 1.49],P=0.0001,I^(2)=65.1%)and substantia nigra(SMD[95%CI]=1.38[0.89 to 1.87],P=0.0001,I^(2)=75.3%),indicating a protective effect on dopaminergic neurons.Subgroup analysis of the amphetamine-induced rotation test showed a significant reduction only in the intracranial-striatum route(SMD[95%CI]=-2.59[-3.25 to-1.94],P=0.0001,I^(2)=74.4%).The memory test showed significant improvement only in the intravenous route(SMD[95%CI]=4.80[1.84 to 7.76],P=0.027,I^(2)=79.6%).Mesenchymal stem cells have been shown to positively impact motor function and memory function and protect dopaminergic neurons in preclinical models of Parkinson’s disease.Further research is required to determine the optimal stem cell types,modifications,transplanted cell numbe rs,and delivery methods for these protocols.展开更多
Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the curr...Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.展开更多
文摘Convective processes affect large-scale environments through cloud-radiation interaction, cloud micro- physical processes, and surface rainfall processes. Over the last three decades, cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have demonstrated to be capable of simulating convective-radiative responses to an imposed large-scale forcing. The CRM-produced cloud and radiative properties have been utilized to study the convective- related processes and their ensemble effects on large-scale circulations. This review the recent progress on the understanding of convective processes with the use of CRM simulations, including precipitation processes; cloud microphysical and radiative processes; dynamical processes; precipitation efficiency; diurnal variations of tropical oceanic convection; local-scale atmosphere-ocean coupling processes; and tropical convective-radiative equilibrium states. Two different ongoing applications of CRMs to general circulation models (GCMs) are discussed: replacing convection and cloud schemes for studying the interaction between cloud systems and large-scale circulation, and improving the schemes for climate simulations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants Nos.40875025,40875030,and 40775033)the Shanghai Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.08ZR1422900)
文摘Water vapor, cloud, and surface rainfall budgets associated with the landfall of Typhoon Krosa on 6-8 October 2007 are analyzed based on a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated with imposed zonally-uniform vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal temperature, and vapor advection from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data. The simulation data that are validated with observations are examined to study physical causes associated with surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The time- and domain-mean analysis shows that when Krosa approached the eastern coast of China on 6 October, the water vapor convergence over land caused a local atmospheric moistening and a net condensation that further produced surface rainfall and an increase of cloud hydrometeor concentration. Meanwhile, latent heating was balanced by advective cooling and a local atmospheric warming. One day later, the enhancement of net condensation led to an increase of surface rainfall and a local atmospheric drying, while the water vapor convergence weakened as a result of the landfall-induced deprivation of water vapor flux. At the same time, the latent heating is mainly compensated the advective cooling. Further weakening of vapor convergence on 8 October enhanced the local atmospheric drying while the net condensation and associated surface rainfall was maintained. The latent heating is balanced by advective cooling and a local atmospheric cooling.
基金the National Key BasicResearch and Development Project of China under GrantNo. 2004CB418301the National Natural Sciences Foun-dation of China under Grant No. 40775031"Outstand-ing Oversea Scholars" Project No.2005-2-16.
文摘Impacts of initial conditions on cloud-resolving model simulations are investigated using a series of sensitivity experiments. Five experiments with perturbed initial temperature, moisture, and cloud conditions are conducted and compared to the control experiment. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind observed and derived from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). The results indicate that model predictions of rainfall are much more sensitive to the initial conditions than those of temperature and moisture. Further analyses of the surface rainfall equation and the moisture and cloud hydrometeor budgets reveal that the calculations of vapor condensation and deposition rates in the model account for the large sensitivities in rainfall simulations.
基金supported by 985 Program of Zhejiang University under Grant No.188020+193432602/215National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41175047)+3 种基金the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology (Grant Nos.GYHY201006014 and 20100503310)the Basic Research Project of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (12011LAS-B14)supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China under Grant Nos.2013CB430103 and 2011CB403405the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.41375058 and 41175065
文摘ABSTRACT Rainfall responses to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were investigated through the analysis of two pairs of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments. One pair of experiments simulated pre-summer heavy rainfall over southern China around the summer solstice, whereas the other pair of experiments simulated tropical rainfall around the winter solstice. The analysis of the time and model domain mean heat budget revealed that the enhanced local atmospheric warming was associated with doubled carbon dioxide through the weakened infrared radiative cooling during the summer solstice. The weakened mean pre-summer rainfall corresponded to the weakened mean infrared radiative cooling. Doubled carbon dioxide increased the mean tropical atmospheric warming via the enhanced mean latent heat in correspondence with the strengthened mean infrared radiative cooling during the winter solstice. The enhanced mean tropical rainfall was associated with the increased mean latent heat.
基金National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (2009CB421505)National Natural Science Foundation of China (40775036)Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP07214)
文摘The detailed surface rainfall processes associated with landfalling typhoon Kaemi(2006) are investigated based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated for 6 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity,zonal wind,horizontal temperature and vapor advection from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data. The simulation data are validated with observations in terms of surface rain rate. The Root-Mean-Squared (RMS) difference in surface rain rate between the simulation and the gauge observations is 0.660 mm h-1,which is smaller than the standard deviations of both the simulated rain rate (0.753 mm h-1) and the observed rain rate (0.833 mm h-1). The simulation data are then used to study the physical causes associated with the detailed surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The results show that time averaged and model domain-mean Ps mainly comes from large-scale convergence ( QW VF) and local vapor loss (positive QW VT). Large underestimation (about 15%) of Ps will occur if QW VT and QC M(cloud source/sink) are not considered as contributors to Ps. QW VF accounts for the variation of Ps during most of the integration time,while it is not always a contributor to Ps. Sometimes surface rainfall could occur when divergence is dominant with local vapor loss to be a contributor to Ps. Surface rainfall is a result of multi-timescale interactions. QW VE possesses the longest time scale and the lowest frequency of variation with time and may exert impact on Ps on longer time scales. QW VF possesses the second longest time scale and lowest frequency and can explain most of the variation of Ps. QW VT and QC M possess shorter time scales and higher frequencies,which can explain more detailed variations in Ps. Partitioning analysis shows that stratiform rainfall is dominant from the morning of 26 July till the late night of 27 July. After that,convective rainfall dominates till about 1000 LST 28 July. Before 28 July,the variations of QW VTin rainfall-free regions contribute less to that of the domain-mean QW VT while after that they contribute much,which is consistent to the corresponding variations in their fractional coverage. The variations of QW VF in rainfall regions are the main contributors to that of the domain-mean QW VF,then the main contributors to the surface rain rate before the afternoon of 28 July.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China under Grant 2011CB403405the Chinese Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest under Grant GYHY200806009+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 41075039 and 41175065the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)
文摘This study investigates the effects of vertical wind shear on the torrential rainfall response to the large-scale forcing using a rainfall separation analysis of a pair of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments for a pre-summer heavy rainfall event over southern China from 3-8 June 2008 coupled with National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/Global Data Assimilation System(GDAS) data.The rainfall partitioning analysis based on the surface rainfall budget indicates that the exclusion of vertical wind shear decreases the contribution to total rainfall from the largest contributor,which is the rainfall associated with local atmospheric drying,water vapor divergence,and hydrometeor loss/convergence,through the reduction of the rainfall area and reduced rainfall during the rainfall event.The removal of vertical wind shear increases the contribution to total rainfall from the rainfall associated with local atmospheric drying,water vapor convergence,and hydrometeor loss/convergence through the expansion of the rainfall area and enhanced rainfall.The elimination of vertical wind shear enhances heavy rainfall and expands its area,whereas it reduces moderate rainfall and its area.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFA0603502)(Key)National Natural Science Foundation of China(91644211 and 41375080)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201406023)
文摘The decorrelation length(Lcf) has been widely used to describe the behavior of vertical overlap of clouds in general circulation models(GCMs); however, it has been a challenge to associate Lcf with the large-scale meteorological conditions during cloud evolution. This study explored the relationship between Lcf and the strength of atmospheric convection in the tropics based on output from a global cloud-resolving model. Lcf tends to increase with vertical velocity in the mid-troposphere(w500) at locations of ascent, but shows little or no dependency on w500 at locations of descent. A representation of Lcf as a function of vertical velocity is obtained, with a linear regression in ascending regions and a constant value in descending regions. This simple and dynamic-related representation of Lcf leads to a significant improvement in simulation of both cloud cover and radiation fields compared with traditional overlap treatments. This work presents a physically justifiable approach to depicting cloud overlap in the tropics in GCMs.
文摘Recent decades have witnessed the rapid development of cloud-system resolving models (CRM), which are now capable of simulating cloud systems and accompanying interactions on scales up to global, albeit in the latter application small- scale convection (cumulus) remains unresolved. The implication of such a truncation is not understood. The CRM approach has its roots in non-hydrostatic cloud models developed a generation ago for simulating individual cumulonimbus in integrations lasting about an hour Advances in computer capacity enable CRMs to be run with progressively larger computational domains and be integrated for weeks or months,
文摘安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。
基金support by the National Taiwan University and the high performance computer center in the National Central University.W.H.GAO was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB955804,2011CB403401)2012 National abroad personnel science and technology project.C.-H.SUI was supported by the National Science Council(Grant No.100-2745-M-002-003-ASP)
文摘Simulated regional precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events, and the regional hydrologic budgets over the western North Pacific region during the period from May to June 2008 were investigated with the high-resolution (4-km grid spacing) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF v3.2.1) model with explicit cloud microphysics. The model initial and boundary conditions were derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis 2 data. The model precipitation results were evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 product. The results show that the WRF simulations can reason- ably reproduce the spatial distributions of daily mean precipitation and rainy days. However, the simulated frequency distributions of rainy days showed an overestimation of light precipitation, an underestimation of moderate to heavy precipitation, but a good representation of extreme precipitation. The downscaling approach was able to add value to the very heavy precipitation over the ocean since the convective processes are resolved by the high-resolution cloud-resolving model. Moreover, the water vapor budget analysis indi- cates that heavy precipitation is contributed mostly by the stronger moisture convergence; whereas, in less convective periods, the precipitation is more influenced by the surface evaporation. The simulated water vapor budgets imply the importance in the tropical monsoon region of cloud microphysics that affects the precipitation, atmospheric latent heating and, subsequently, the large-scale circulation.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20166 and 12172230)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515012654)+1 种基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20166 and 12172230)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515012654)。
文摘Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.
基金supported by the NSF grant AGS-1928883the NASA grants,80NSSC20K1670 and 80MSFC20C0019+2 种基金support from NASA GSFC IRADHIFISFM funds。
文摘Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.
基金Supported by the Project of NINGBO Leading Medical Health Discipline,No.2022-B11Ningbo Natural Science Foundation,No.202003N4206Public Welfare Foundation of Ningbo,No.2021S108.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52275291)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universitiesthe Program for Innovation Team of Shaanxi Province,China (No. 2023-CX-TD-17)
文摘Hypoxia is a typical feature of the tumor microenvironment,one of the most critical factors affecting cell behavior and tumor progression.However,the lack of tumor models able to precisely emulate natural brain tumor tissue has impeded the study of the effects of hypoxia on the progression and growth of tumor cells.This study reports a three-dimensional(3D)brain tumor model obtained by encapsulating U87MG(U87)cells in a hydrogel containing type I collagen.It also documents the effect of various oxygen concentrations(1%,7%,and 21%)in the culture environment on U87 cell morphology,proliferation,viability,cell cycle,apoptosis rate,and migration.Finally,it compares two-dimensional(2D)and 3D cultures.For comparison purposes,cells cultured in flat culture dishes were used as the control(2D model).Cells cultured in the 3D model proliferated more slowly but had a higher apoptosis rate and proportion of cells in the resting phase(G0 phase)/gap I phase(G1 phase)than those cultured in the 2D model.Besides,the two models yielded significantly different cell morphologies.Finally,hypoxia(e.g.,1%O2)affected cell morphology,slowed cell growth,reduced cell viability,and increased the apoptosis rate in the 3D model.These results indicate that the constructed 3D model is effective for investigating the effects of biological and chemical factors on cell morphology and function,and can be more representative of the tumor microenvironment than 2D culture systems.The developed 3D glioblastoma tumor model is equally applicable to other studies in pharmacology and pathology.
文摘Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse the disease itself.Stem cell therapy has a regenerative effect and is being actively studied as a candidate for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.Mesenchymal stem cells are considered a promising option due to fewer ethical concerns,a lower risk of immune rejection,and a lower risk of teratogenicity.We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the therapeutic effects of mesenchymal stem cells and their derivatives on motor function,memory,and preservation of dopamine rgic neurons in a Parkinson’s disease animal model.We searched bibliographic databases(PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,CENTRAL,Scopus,and Web of Science)to identify articles and included only pee r-reviewed in vivo interve ntional animal studies published in any language through J une 28,2023.The study utilized the random-effect model to estimate the 95%confidence intervals(CI)of the standard mean differences(SMD)between the treatment and control groups.We use the systematic review center for laboratory animal expe rimentation’s risk of bias tool and the collaborative approach to meta-analysis and review of animal studies checklist for study quality assessment.A total of 33studies with data from 840 Parkinson’s disease model animals were included in the meta-analysis.Treatment with mesenchymal stem cells significantly improved motor function as assessed by the amphetamine-induced rotational test.Among the stem cell types,the bone marrow MSCs with neurotrophic factor group showed la rgest effect size(SMD[95%CI]=-6.21[-9.50 to-2.93],P=0.0001,I^(2)=0.0%).The stem cell treatment group had significantly more tyrosine hydroxylase positive dopamine rgic neurons in the striatum([95%CI]=1.04[0.59 to 1.49],P=0.0001,I^(2)=65.1%)and substantia nigra(SMD[95%CI]=1.38[0.89 to 1.87],P=0.0001,I^(2)=75.3%),indicating a protective effect on dopaminergic neurons.Subgroup analysis of the amphetamine-induced rotation test showed a significant reduction only in the intracranial-striatum route(SMD[95%CI]=-2.59[-3.25 to-1.94],P=0.0001,I^(2)=74.4%).The memory test showed significant improvement only in the intravenous route(SMD[95%CI]=4.80[1.84 to 7.76],P=0.027,I^(2)=79.6%).Mesenchymal stem cells have been shown to positively impact motor function and memory function and protect dopaminergic neurons in preclinical models of Parkinson’s disease.Further research is required to determine the optimal stem cell types,modifications,transplanted cell numbe rs,and delivery methods for these protocols.
基金supported by Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606501)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42075037)+1 种基金Key Laboratory Open Research Program of Xinjiang Science and Technology Department (Grant No. 2022D04009)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility” (EarthLab)。
文摘Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.