Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over China's Mainland are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed： TXx and TNn （the annual maximum and minimum of daily annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation） and CDD maximum and minimum surface temperature）, RX5day （the （maximum annual number of consecutive dry days）. After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to 〈 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

A new method to estimate wave height of specified return period

In this paper, we propose a new method to estimate the wave height of a specifi c return period based on the Hurst rule and a self-affi ne fractal formula. A detailed description of our proposed model is presented in this paper. We use the proposed model to analyze wave height data recorded along the coast of Chaolian Island from 1963 to 1989. The results show that the performance of our proposed model in estimating design wave heights is superior to traditional models.

Hydrology and Estimation of Real Erosion in the Patria Nueva Micro-Basin for Five Return Periods

This paper will discuss the actual erosion estimation of the Patria Nueva micro basin in tons/ha/year (E), located in Tuxtla Gutiérrez Chiapas, Mexico. We used the universal soil loss equation (USLE), considered one of the best theoretical tools for planning and soil preservation in the USA and other countries. The actual erosion rates were estimated for 5, 20, 50, 100, and 500 years return periods (Rp), with elevated results due to high degrees of anthropogenic alteration of the micro-basin, especially in the last 50 years. High erosion rates generate the following problems: loss of soil, which is unfavorable for plant life, due to the soil being a non-renewable resource, the undermine can never renovate, the hydraulic area in the main channel reduces during the rainy season (when the river overflows). The sediment accumulates at the lower part of the micro-basin along with waste, garbage, and mud.

Climate Change Characteristics and Return Periods of Heavy Precipitation in the Northeast Side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss analyze climate change characteristics and return periods of heavy precipitation in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ Method] Based on the data of daily precipitation from 1943 to 2008 in 6 representative meteorological stations in Linxia located in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the climate change characteristics of heavy precipitation were analyzed, and the return periods of heavy precipitation were calculated by Pearson-Ill probability distribution method. [ Result] Days of heavy precipitation in Linxia region in- creased conspicuously since the 1990s. The return periods of heavy precipitation in the six stations on August 20, 2008 were consistent with the re- sults of artificial estimation. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the reasonable utilization of climate resources, disas- ter prevention and rational arranqement of anricultural plantina svstems in Linxia reaion.

Risk Assessment and Simulation on Storm Flood of the 100-Year Return Period in Hunhe River Basin

Based on the meteorological and geographic information data, with statistical method and the FloodArea model, the extreme daily rainfall of the 100-year return period in Hunhe River basin was established, through the simulation of rainstorm and flood disaster, characteristics of flood depth in warning spot Cangshi village in the upstream of the river were analysed, and possible effect on community economy was also evaluated. Results showed that, the precipitation of 100-year return period occurred, the flood depth has been below 1.0 meter in the most areas of Hunhe River basin, the depth was between 1.0 meter and 2.5 meters in the part areas of Hunhe River basin, and the flood depth has been exceed 2.5 meters in a small part of Hunhe River basin. After the beginning of precipitation, the flood was concentrated in the upper reaches of the river. With the accumulation of precipitation and the passage of time, the flood pools into midstream and downstream. Precipitation lasted for 24 hours, the warning spot was flooded in the beginning of precipitation. With the accumulation of precipitation, water level of the river increases gradually. The depth of warning spot has passed 1.0 meter at the 07 time of the whole process, and the maximum value of flood depth at warning spot was 1.083 meters that occurred at the 19 time. The flood depth of warning spot decreased gradually after the precipitation stopping, and the depth has been below 0.2 meters, the flood of upstream ended. Up to the end of the upstream flood process, in the whole river, about one million five hundred and sixty thousand people were affected by flooding, and thirty-eight billion and two hundred million RMB of gross domestic product were lost, in addition, dry land and paddy field were affected greatly, but woodland and grassland were less affected.

Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed

Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China’s southeast coast.A technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard was developed based on the empirical track model,and used to generate 1000-year virtual typhoons for Northwest Pacific basin.The influences of typhoon decay model,track model,and the extreme value distribution on the predicted extreme wind speed were investigated.We found that different typhoon decay models have least influence on the predicted extreme wind speed.Over most of the southeast coast of China,the predicted wind speed by the non-simplified empirical track model is larger than that from the simplified tracking model.The extreme wind speed predicted by different extreme value distribution is quite different.Four super typhoons Meranti(2016),Hato(2017),Mangkhut(2018)and Lekima(2019)were selected and the return periods of typhoon wind speeds along the China southeast coast were estimated in order to assess the typhoon wind hazard.

A New Approach to Estimating the T-Year Return-Period Wave Height

The paper introduces a new approach to estimating the T-year return-period wave height (TRPW), i.e. the wave height expected to occur in T-year, from two sets of observed extreme data and on the basis of the maximum entropy principle. The main points of the approach are as follows. 1) A maximum entropy probability density function (PDF) for the extreme wave height H is derived from a Euler equation subject to some necessary and rational constraints. 2) The parameters in the function are expressed in terms of the mth moment of H. 3) This PDF is convenient to theoretical and practical applications as it is simple and its four parameters are easy to be determined from observed extreme data. An example is given for estimating the TRPW in 50 and 100 years by the present approach and by some currently used methods using observed data at two hydrographic stations.The comparison of the estimated results shows that the present approach is quite similar to the Pearson-Ⅲ and Gumbel methods.

Spatial Distribution of Return Period in China Based on b-value Obtained by Using a New Method

The seismicity in the territory of China, a seismotectonically complicated region, has been examined by using some complete samples of the earthquakes occurred during the last two centuries (1800 - 1999). The A-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation was estimated by using those data samples. Taking into account the fact that the b-value is spatially more stable than the a value, the b values were calculated at the nodes of a normal grid superposing on the whole area studied and their distribution were examined. The results show that the b values increase smoothly from 0.4 to 0.93. Furthermore, keeping the b values obtained fixed, the a value distribution was also examined. In order to display more detailed information about the seismicity, smaller cell surface (10000 km2) for the calculation of the a value has chosen. The mean return period for different magnitudes was also calculated for each small cell.

泥石流危险范围Laharz修正模型及其应用

泥石流危险区研究涉及触发条件、物源与地形等多种因素,需要开发快速、有效的方法进行危险范围分析。本文基于Laharz基本原理,以泥石流样本为数据基础拟合得到修正模型,并以重庆市巫溪县杨家湾沟为例,采用修正的Laharz ArcGIS工具包,在不同降雨重现期条件下对泥石流堆积范围进行模拟计算。结果表明:1)采用修正参数使Laharz模型统计量参数的和方差(SSE)和均方根误差(RMSE)减小,确定系数(R^(2))增大,拟合优度得到明显提高;2)基于数字高程模型,结合现场调查推算的物源体积,在ArcGIS平台采用Laharz工具包可快速模拟不同降雨重现期(10、20、50、100 a)条件下的泥石流堆积范围,并且模拟泥石流堆积宽度与现场调查堆积范围接近,大部分重合;3)采用Laharz修正模型与传统的FLO-2D软件模拟进行对比,其中最远冲出距离、最大堆积宽度和堆积面积在两种方法下模拟结果的差值比率分别在10.00%、15.00%和20.00%量级,采用两种方法模拟结果与实地勘查结果也相近,表明Laharz修正模型具可靠性。

渤海和黄海北部工程设计冰厚变化趋势分析

针对渤海和黄海北部沿岸风电、光伏和核电等新兴能源中的工程海冰设计问题,本文研究了重现期冰厚及其在大气候背景下的变化趋势。本文分析72 a冰级时间序列表明渤海和黄海北部总体冰情等级呈明显下降趋势;在此影响下,基于20 a渤海和黄海北部海冰多源观测数据和精细化海冰数值预报资料,研究发现不同重现期冰厚较之前海冰区划值存在不同程度的降低。此外,不同场址设计冰厚受当地海洋环境条件影响较大,单一参考海冰区划值可能存在较大误差。研究表明:针对特定作业地点的工程设计冰厚,需要有针对性地开展精细化评估并考虑大气候背景变化的影响,才能为相关工程海冰参数设计提供更加可靠的依据。

下沉式地铁车辆基地防洪排涝设计标准研究

[目的]下沉式地铁车辆基地是一种特殊空间利用形式的车辆基地,在防洪排涝方面存在较大风险,但国内现有相关规范和标准中尚无针对这方面的规定。因此,需对下沉式车辆基地防洪排涝设计能力进行深入研究,明确规范和标准中的相关内容,为此类项目建设提供设计依据。[方法]以宁波地铁5号线前殷停车场工程为例,分析了现有规范和标准中有关防洪和排水的设计要求,分析了下沉车辆基地的防洪涝设计方案,分别按50年和100年暴雨重现期对下沉基坑内不同区域防洪涝设计方案进行了对比分析。[结果及结论]下沉式车辆基地应采用“可靠的防、排内涝水措施”来满足防洪排涝的基本要求。在防洪涝方面,下沉式车辆基地防洪墙顶高程和出入口路面高程应高于百年洪水位+安全高,同时防洪墙与周边地面的高差应高于100年暴雨重现期下的所在地块内涝水位。在排涝方面,下沉基坑内的盖体屋面区域排水宜遵循“高水高排”的原则,按100年暴雨重现期设计屋面排水能力,通过重力流方式直排至基坑外;坑内敞开区域采用抽排方式,按100年暴雨重现期设计雨水泵站的总排水能力。

长江口徐六泾水文站极值水位研究

在气候变化背景下,极端天气和水位事件频发。为了分析长江口极端潮位的长周期特征,研究基于极值理论相关方法,采用近33 a实测资料对长江口极值潮位趋势性和重现期进行分析,结果表明:长江口徐六泾站年极值水位呈轻微下降趋势,直接原因是大通流量减少导致当地年均海面的下降;区分组模型结果显示,台风“温妮”期间长江口造成的风暴潮位为100 a一遇,而POT模型计算结果仅为60 a一遇,100 a一遇重现期潮位约7.0 m;潮位重现期的计算本质是一种用频率代替概率、从样本推求整体的过程,具有一定不确定性。其意义在于以可获取的数据为基础,计算事件发生的风险率,旨在为工程设计或风险管理提供依据。

夏闲期玉米压青对旱地麦田土壤水分周年变化的影响

[目的]揭示旱地麦田土壤水分对夏闲期玉米压青的周年适应变化规律,阐明压青模式对小麦产量提高及优化的水分驱动机制,为旱作压青蓄水技术提供理论参考。[方法]通过晋南旱地麦田夏闲期玉米压青还田试验,采用大区对比方法,以夏闲期免耕处理为对照,研究夏闲期玉米压青模式下麦田土壤周年贮水耗水变化规律,分析了其对后茬小麦产量的影响及水分利用效率。[结果]与免耕模式相比,夏闲期玉米压青处理可显著提高0—200 cm土壤周年贮水量,且对100—200 cm较深层土壤的蓄水能力更强;玉米压青处理0—200 cm土壤周年耗水量及耗水百分比均显著低于免耕处理;与免耕相比,压青处理可提高夏闲期0—200 cm土层盈水量,减少小麦季0—100 cm浅土层的水分耗散量;压青处理小麦穗数、穗粒数显著高于免耕,而千粒重差异较小;压青处理夏闲期0—200 cm土壤对降雨的蓄水效率显著高于免耕;在夏闲期玉米压青还田生物量显著高于免耕处理条件下,小麦季和周年阶段,压青处理生物产量及籽粒产量的降水、水分利用效率均显著高于免耕处理。[结论]在旱地麦田丰水年份,夏闲期玉米压青可显著提高旱地麦田土壤贮水,降低作物周年耗水量,优化小麦产量三要素,蓄水增产。

重庆区域性暴雨过程的重现期评估模型构建方法研究

提出一种利用重现期方法构建区域性暴雨过程的评估模型,用于全面评估暴雨过程发生的频率和强度。基于2011—2021年重庆市114次区域性暴雨过程的小时雨量数据及暴雨灾情数据,利用概率分布函数拟合、重现期计算、相关分析等方法,构建区域性暴雨过程的重现期评估模型,并开展业务检验。结果表明:(1)利用自建的重现期计算公式,得到暴雨过程特征量的重现值与原始值的误差小于10%,重现期计算结果准确性较高。(2)构建的重现期评估模型与直接经济损失的正相关系数可通过0.001显著性水平检验,较现行业务指标提高16%。(3)历史回算和独立样本检验结果显示,重现期评估模型与业务指标评估等级一致率达70%,模型稳定性强且能反映事件发生频率和强度,可为区域性暴雨过程评估提供新思路。

基于地区线性矩法的四川省24 h极值降雨频率分析

为探究四川省24 h极值降雨在不同重现期不同频率下的时空分布特征,采用地区线性矩法划分四川省水文气象一致区,确定最优拟合线型,并验证地区线性矩法在站点稀疏地区的适用性,随后估计四川省24 h不同重现期降雨频率值,分析其时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)四川省可划分为40个水文气象一致区,经线型拟合优度检验,主要线型为GLO、GEV和GNO,其中川西高原地区的最优线型大多为GLO,盆地区域的最优线型大多为GEV。(2)地区线性矩法在站点相对稀疏的川西高原地区具有良好的适用性。(3)四川省内不同地区24 h极值降雨空间分布十分不均,同一重现期下不同地区降雨频率估计值的最大值可达最小值的10倍。

降雨雨型对城市雨水系统内涝弹性的影响

为探究降雨雨型对城市雨水系统内涝弹性的影响,基于MIKE FLOOD平台,以济南市新旧动能转换起步区大桥分区为研究对象,对7种重现期、3种降雨历时和3种雨峰系数的设计降雨雨型进行内涝过程场景推演,并结合层次分析法,以积水量、积水面积和平均积水深度为基础量化系统内涝弹性。结果表明:积水量峰值、积水面积峰值均随重现期、降雨历时的增大而增大,平均积水深度波动较大;系统性能前后主要发生两次波动,分别由降雨强度变化和研究区大部分洼地深度较浅导致;随着重现期的增加,系统内涝弹性越小,单位雨峰系数引起的系统内涝弹性极值对应的降雨量差异越来越大,整体上,降雨雨峰越居中和降雨历时越大,系统内涝弹性越小。

渤、黄海天文潮—风暴潮相互作用及其对极值水位的贡献

基于Delft3D模型建立了中国渤、黄海风暴潮数值模型,选取1979—2020年影响该海域的93场风暴过程(包括台风、寒潮和温带气旋),模拟了所产生的风暴增水和风暴潮总水位。采用泊松—皮尔逊复合极值分布理论,推算了渤、黄海对应不同重现期的极值水位;通过数值试验,对天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对极值水位的贡献进行了量化分析。研究结果表明,渤海的莱州湾、渤海湾,以及黄海的江华湾、西朝鲜湾风暴增水最大,其中江华湾北侧和渤海湾西南侧的百年一遇风暴增水可达4 m;天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用在潮差较大、水深较浅的河口、湾顶区域更为显著,与耦合模型结果相比,非线性作用使极值水位值偏小,天文潮、风暴潮增水的线性叠加可显著高估极值水位,高估的幅值可达0.5~0.8 m。考虑重现期极值水位是海岸灾害防护工程的关键设计参数之一,对海岸构筑物的安全和建造成本影响极大,应重视天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对重现期水位的影响。

叶尔羌河源流区洪水极值事件联合概率分析

以叶尔羌河流域源区为例,选取塔什库尔干气象站的气温数据和库鲁克栏杆站的洪水资料,基于Copula函数对洪峰流量和1、3、7 d洪水总量的概率分布特征进行分析,结合小波相干分析进一步探讨气候因子变化与洪水极值事件的关系。结果表明:两变量的同现重现期>单变量重现期>两变量的联合重现期,联合重现期和同现重现期随着洪峰流量和洪量的增大而变长,相应洪水极值事件发生概率降低;夏季日平均气温和洪峰流量序列在年代际尺度上具有高相干性,夏季日平均气温先于洪峰流量0.13~0.31周期变化;基于Copula函数建立1957—2010年夏季日平均气温与洪峰之间的二维统计模型,单变量重现期越长,所对应两变量的联合重现期与同现重现期之间相差越大;随着夏季日平均气温的升高,不同重现期洪水发生的可能性均增大。研究成果可对该地区的洪水风险管理和水资源适应性对策提供重要的科学价值和技术支撑。

台风对近岸复合洪水的影响评估

不同特性的台风在多大程度上导致与强降水和风暴潮相关的近岸复合洪水尚不清楚,为厘清近岸台风事件与复合洪灾的相互关系,以中国东南沿海为研究典型,基于降水和风暴潮数据,分析1980—2019年复合洪水驱动因子依赖性,利用copula统计模型描绘复合洪水回归期,通过定量评估表明台风对复合洪水潜势升级发挥重要作用。研究表明:(1)中国南方沿海地区复合洪水潜力高于北方,降水与风暴潮之间的依赖性是影响复合洪水发生的关键;(2)台风一方面增强极端降水和极端风暴潮之间的依赖性,使广西、广东阳江、浙江沿海复合洪水潜势增加10%~30%,另一方面提高了极端降水和风暴潮的发生边际概率,使闽苏、海南、澳门地区复合洪水概率增加了50%~180%。(3)相对而言,台风诱发的风暴潮比台风诱发的降水更能放大复合洪水潜势;(4)根据灾害损失分析,台风期间复合事件所造成的损失远大于单驱洪水事件。研究成果可为台风对近岸复合洪水的风险决策及防灾规划提供科学依据。

赣江流域水文干旱事件重现期计算方法

针对以径流相对亏缺状态表征的水文干旱事件,采用3种常用的概率分布函数Log-normal、Gamma和Normal,拟合了赣江外洲站实测年径流资料;利用外洲站年径流的统计特征,推导了干旱历时和干旱强度2种典型干旱特征变量的理论概率分布函数的参数;计算了期望间隔时间定义下干旱历时内累积干旱强度达到某一阈值的干旱事件的重现期,并采用Monte Carlo随机模拟技术进行了验证。结果表明:根据年径流统计信息解析推求水文干旱事件的重现期,具有较强的统计基础和可信的精度,能够一定程度克服依靠有限观测水文序列进行干旱事件重现期推断的样本偏差,可为定量评估流域干旱风险,支撑流域水安全保障提供新的思路。