Based on the evolution of geological dynamics and spatial chaos theory, we proposed the advanced prediction an advanced prediction method of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings to predict coal and gas outbursts. ...Based on the evolution of geological dynamics and spatial chaos theory, we proposed the advanced prediction an advanced prediction method of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings to predict coal and gas outbursts. We investigated and verified the prediction method by a spatial series data of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings obtained from the 113112 coal roadway at the Shitai Mine. Our experimental results show that the spatial distribution of the gas desorption index of drill cuttings has some chaotic charac- teristics, which implies that the risk of coal and gas outbursts can be predicted by spatial chaos theory. We also found that a proper amount of sample data needs to be chosen in order to ensure the accuracy and practical maneuverability of prediction. The relative prediction error is small when the prediction pace is chosen carefully. In our experiments, it turned out that the optimum number of sample points is 80 and the optimum prediction pace 30. The corresponding advanced prediction pace basically meets the requirements of engineering applications.展开更多
Coal occupies a dominant position in China＇s national economy and is an essential energy source for future industrial development. To inform the efficient and sustainable development of the coal industry, this paper ...Coal occupies a dominant position in China＇s national economy and is an essential energy source for future industrial development. To inform the efficient and sustainable development of the coal industry, this paper analyzes the sources of strategic risk for coal science and technology enterprises using 3 first-class indicators, 10 second-level indicators, and 37 observation points established through the existing research literature and experience. Moreover, in accordance to the obtained initial index data, the selected indicators have been tested and screened using reliability and membership degree analyses to remove redundant variables, avoid juxtaposition of risk factors at different levels, and reduce the influ- ence of some tiny risk factors for enterprise strategic risk. Then, factor analysis of external environment factor sub-scale was carried out. Factors are extracted according to a standard characteristic value greater than 1. Variables with high coefficients are classified into one factor category; and finally, 3 first-class indicators. 8 second-level indicators, and 37 observation noints are reconstructed.展开更多
Coal burst remains one of the gravest safety risks that will be encountered in mining in the future, because the stress conditions will become more complex as mining depths increase. Various influencing elements exist...Coal burst remains one of the gravest safety risks that will be encountered in mining in the future, because the stress conditions will become more complex as mining depths increase. Various influencing elements exist, and varied geological and mining circumstances might result in diverse coal burst phenomena. The impact propensity of coal has variations as a result of the distinct physical and mechanical qualities of each. To identify the impact propensity of coal and then understand the rules of coal burst occurrence, laboratory tests can be conducted to identify the physical and mechanical parameters affecting coal samples. The mechanical properties, energy absorption, and energy dissipation characteristics of coal samples were examined experimentally in this paper using coal samples that were taken from the mine. On the basis of the evaluation of the impact inclination parameters for four fundamental coal samples, novel impact inclination indicators and the relationship between the fractures in the coal sample and the impact inclination parameters were discussed. The following are the key conclusions: 1) On-site samples of No. 15 coal from the Qi yuan Coal Mine were taken (15 s) and processed in accordance with the guidelines for the coal specimen impact inclination test. The accuracy of the specimen was sufficient for the test. 2) Analysis is done on the mechanical relevance and calculation techniques of the four fundamental coal sample impact tendency characteristics, dynamic failure time (DT), elastic strain energy index (W<sub>ET</sub>), impact energy index (K<sub>E</sub>), as well as uniaxial compressive strength (R<sub>C</sub>). 3) Regarding the rock burst danger of rock samples, the potential use of the ratio of pre-peak and post- peak deformation modulus to Kλ and the residual elastic strain energy index C<sub>EF</sub> as the impact propensity indices of coal samples are discussed. It is possible to utilize two new impact propensity indices to evaluate the impact propensity of coal samples, according to test results that reveal a linear correlation between two new impact inclination indexes and four fundamental impact tendency indexes. 4) The statistical analysis of the crack ratio with the four impact propensity indicators after coal specimen failure, and the correlation among the crack ratio with the indicators, are both done. The findings indicate that the four impact propensity indicators have a linear relationship with the crack ratio of the coal sample surface cracks.展开更多
基金Financial support for this work, provided by the National Basic Research Program of China (No.2011CB201204)the National Youth Science Foundation Program (No.50904068)+1 种基金the Heilongjiang Science & Technology Scientific Research Foundation Program for the Eighth Introduction of Talent (No.06-26)the National Engineering Research Center for Coal Gas Control
文摘Based on the evolution of geological dynamics and spatial chaos theory, we proposed the advanced prediction an advanced prediction method of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings to predict coal and gas outbursts. We investigated and verified the prediction method by a spatial series data of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings obtained from the 113112 coal roadway at the Shitai Mine. Our experimental results show that the spatial distribution of the gas desorption index of drill cuttings has some chaotic charac- teristics, which implies that the risk of coal and gas outbursts can be predicted by spatial chaos theory. We also found that a proper amount of sample data needs to be chosen in order to ensure the accuracy and practical maneuverability of prediction. The relative prediction error is small when the prediction pace is chosen carefully. In our experiments, it turned out that the optimum number of sample points is 80 and the optimum prediction pace 30. The corresponding advanced prediction pace basically meets the requirements of engineering applications.
文摘Coal occupies a dominant position in China＇s national economy and is an essential energy source for future industrial development. To inform the efficient and sustainable development of the coal industry, this paper analyzes the sources of strategic risk for coal science and technology enterprises using 3 first-class indicators, 10 second-level indicators, and 37 observation points established through the existing research literature and experience. Moreover, in accordance to the obtained initial index data, the selected indicators have been tested and screened using reliability and membership degree analyses to remove redundant variables, avoid juxtaposition of risk factors at different levels, and reduce the influ- ence of some tiny risk factors for enterprise strategic risk. Then, factor analysis of external environment factor sub-scale was carried out. Factors are extracted according to a standard characteristic value greater than 1. Variables with high coefficients are classified into one factor category; and finally, 3 first-class indicators. 8 second-level indicators, and 37 observation noints are reconstructed.
文摘Coal burst remains one of the gravest safety risks that will be encountered in mining in the future, because the stress conditions will become more complex as mining depths increase. Various influencing elements exist, and varied geological and mining circumstances might result in diverse coal burst phenomena. The impact propensity of coal has variations as a result of the distinct physical and mechanical qualities of each. To identify the impact propensity of coal and then understand the rules of coal burst occurrence, laboratory tests can be conducted to identify the physical and mechanical parameters affecting coal samples. The mechanical properties, energy absorption, and energy dissipation characteristics of coal samples were examined experimentally in this paper using coal samples that were taken from the mine. On the basis of the evaluation of the impact inclination parameters for four fundamental coal samples, novel impact inclination indicators and the relationship between the fractures in the coal sample and the impact inclination parameters were discussed. The following are the key conclusions: 1) On-site samples of No. 15 coal from the Qi yuan Coal Mine were taken (15 s) and processed in accordance with the guidelines for the coal specimen impact inclination test. The accuracy of the specimen was sufficient for the test. 2) Analysis is done on the mechanical relevance and calculation techniques of the four fundamental coal sample impact tendency characteristics, dynamic failure time (DT), elastic strain energy index (W<sub>ET</sub>), impact energy index (K<sub>E</sub>), as well as uniaxial compressive strength (R<sub>C</sub>). 3) Regarding the rock burst danger of rock samples, the potential use of the ratio of pre-peak and post- peak deformation modulus to Kλ and the residual elastic strain energy index C<sub>EF</sub> as the impact propensity indices of coal samples are discussed. It is possible to utilize two new impact propensity indices to evaluate the impact propensity of coal samples, according to test results that reveal a linear correlation between two new impact inclination indexes and four fundamental impact tendency indexes. 4) The statistical analysis of the crack ratio with the four impact propensity indicators after coal specimen failure, and the correlation among the crack ratio with the indicators, are both done. The findings indicate that the four impact propensity indicators have a linear relationship with the crack ratio of the coal sample surface cracks.
