Microseismic monitoring and forecasting of dynamic disasters in underground hydropower projects in southwest China:A review

The underground hydropower projects in Southwest China is characterized by large excavation sizes,high geostresses,complicated geological conditions and multiple construction processes.Various disasters such as collapses,large deformations,rockbursts are frequently encountered,resulting in serious casualties and huge economic losses.This review mainly presents some representative results on microseismic(MS)monitoring and forecasting for disasters in hydropower underground engineering.First,a set of new denoising,spectral analysis,and location methods were developed for better identification and location of MS signals.Then,the tempo-spatial characteristics of MS events were analyzed to understand the relationship between field construction and damages of surrounding rocks.Combined with field construction,geological data,numerical simulation and parametric analysis of MS sources,the focal mechanism of MS events was revealed.A damage constitutive model considering MS fracturing size was put forward and feedback analysis considering the MS damage of underground surrounding rocks was conducted.Next,an MS multi-parameter based risk assessment and early warning method for dynamic disasters were proposed.The technology for control of the damage and deformation of underground surrounding rocks was proposed for underground caverns.Finally,two typical underground powerhouses were selected as case studies.These achievements can provide significant references for prevention and control of dynamic disasters for underground engineering with similar complicated geological conditions.

Dynamic behavior of outburst two-phase flow in a coal mine T-shaped roadway:The formation of impact airflow and its disaster-causing effect

The study of the dynamic disaster mechanism of coal and gas outburst two-phase flow is crucial for improving disaster reduction and rescue ability of coal mine outburst accidents.An outburst test in a T-shaped roadway was conducted using a self-developed large-scale outburst dynamic disaster test system.We investigated the release characteristics of main energy sources in coal seam,and obtained the dynamic characteristics of outburst two-phase flow in a roadway.Additionally,we established a formation model for outburst impact flow and a model for its flow in a bifurcated structure.The results indicate that the outburst process exhibits pulse characteristics,and the rapid destruction process of coal seam and the blocking state of gas flow are the main causes of the pulse phenomenon.The outburst energy is released in stages,and the elastic potential energy is released in the vertical direction before the horizontal direction.In a straight roadway,the impact force oscillates along the roadway.With an increase in the solid–gas ratio,the two-phase flow impact force gradually increases,and the disaster range extends from the middle of the roadway to the coal seam.In the area near the coal seam,the disaster caused by the two-phase flow impact is characterized by intermittent recovery.In a bifurcated roadway,the effect of impact airflow on impact dynamic disaster is much higher than that of two-phase flow,and the impact force tends to weaken with increasing solid-gas ratio.The impact force is asymmetrically distributed;it is higher on the left of the bifurcated roadway.With an increase in the solid-gas ratio,the static pressure rapidly decreases,and the bifurcated structure accelerates the attenuation of static pressure.Moreover,secondary acceleration is observed when the shock wave moves along the T-shaped roadway,indicating that the bifurcated structure increases the shock wave velocity.

Studies on marine dynamic disasters

Marine dynamic disasters,including storm surges,huge waves,and sea ice,are the most harmful natural disasters aff ecting coastal countries in the world.Under the infl uence of global climate change,the mechanisms,frequencies,and damage severity of marine dynamic disasters are exhibiting new characteristics.The enormity,unpredictability,and chain eff ects of these disasters have become increasingly prominent,and the losses endured by coastal countries around the world have been increasing year by year.Therefore,the prediction of,risk assessment for,and emergency response to marine dynamic disasters are important issues for disaster prevention and mitigation worldwide.

F-structure model of overlying strata for dynamic disaster prevention in coal mine

The rupture and movement scope of overlying strata upon the longwall mining face increased sharply as the exploitation scale and degree growing recently,and the spatial structure formed by fractured strata became much more complex.The overlying strata above the working face and adjacent gobs would affect each other and move cooperatively because small pillar can hardly separate the connection of overlying strata between two workfaces,which leads to mining seismicity in the gob and induces rockburst disaster that named spatial structure instability rockburst in this paper.Based on the key stratum theory,the F-structure model was established to describe the overlying strata characteristic and rockburst mechanism of workface with one side of gob and the other side un-mined solid coal seam.The results show that F-structure in the gob will re-active and loss stability under the influence of neighboring mining,and fracture and shear slipping in the process of instability is the mechanism of the seismicity in the gob.The F-structure was divided into two categories that short-arm F and long-arm F structure based on the state of strata above the gob.We studied the underground pressure rules of different F-structure and instability mechanism,thus provide the guide for prevention and control of the F-structure spatial instability rockburst.The micro-seismic system is used for on-site monitoring and researching the distribution rules of seismic events,the results confrmed the existence and correct of F-spatial structure.At last specialized methods for prevention seismicity and rockburst induced by F-structure instability are proposed and applied in Huating Coal Mine.

Early warning of coal dynamic disaster by precursor of AE and EMR"quiet period"

Efcient and accurate monitoring and early warning of coal dynamic disaster and other disasters can provide guarantee for the efcient operation of mine transportation system.However,the traditional threshold early warning method often fails to warning some accidents.To address above issues,a new early warning method was proposed based on"quiet period"phenomenon of AE and EMR during fracture.It is found that,a"quiet period"of AE and EMR was present before the load reaches the peak stress,which could be used as one of the precursors to warn the imminent failure of coal and rock specimens.MS and AE signals increased abnormally followed by the phenomenon of"quiet period"before the occurrence of coal dynamic disaster on site,and the decrease of MS events in the"quiet period"is about 57%–88%compared with that in previous abnormal increase stage.During the damage evolution of coal and rock,"quiet period"phenomenon usually occurred at 85%–90%of the peak stress,where the slope of damage parameter curve is almost zero.The"quiet period"of the AE-EMR signals and the low change rate of damage parameter before failure provide a theoretical foundation for the coal dynamic disaster warning based on the"quiet period"precursor found in MS-AE-EMR monitoring system.These fndings will help reduce the number of under-reported events and improve early warning accuracy.

The stress state of geological structure and mining dynamic disaster in Fuxin basin

Further evidences show that most mining dynamic disasters are mainly oc- curred nearby NNE and near SN geological structures.In-situ stress measurement in Fuxin basin shows that the orientation of major compressed stress is near EW.At this stress field,geological structures with deferent strike have deferent stress state and dis- place mode.NNE and near SN geological structures are compressed to thrust and come into being high stress zone.NWW and NEE geological structures are tensile to separate and not prone to being low stress zone.NW structure is intervenient of them.So NEE and near SN structures are easy to occurre mining dynamic disasters and NWW and NEE structures is 'safety' comparatively.The mining dynamic disaster is controlled by stress state of geologic structure,which is determined by its strike.

煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害监测预警与防控技术研究进展

煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害是深部煤炭开采的重大安全隐患,探明其致灾机理、发展监测预警及防控技术是防治关键。提出了煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害防治“四面体”理论,即分别从灾害分类、灾害机理、灾害预警、灾害防控4个层面概述煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害研究进展。总结了以能量释放主体、初始瓦斯压力、载荷条件为主的复合动力灾害类型划分依据;梳理了理论分析尺度和实验室尺度下的复合动力灾害机理研究进展,发现应力路径、微裂纹动态演化和煤岩赋存地质因素临界指标是致灾机理研究的关键;概述了以前期灾害前兆信息判识、中期灾害前兆信息采集、后期灾害一体化监测预警为主线的复合动力灾害监测预警技术研究进展;揭示了复合动力灾害消能减灾一体化防控技术和多尺度分源防控关键技术科学内涵。在此基础上针对两淮矿区灾害特点,提出了深部强动载条件下复合动力灾害智能判识与预警方法和分区协同防控方法。基于当前研究进展,提出了煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害研究亟待解决的问题,助力实现深部煤炭安全、精准、高效开采。

三轴压缩下含瓦斯煤体电阻率响应的实验研究

目的受载含瓦斯煤体变形破裂过程中电阻率的变化规律是电阻率法预测预报煤与瓦斯突出发生的理论基础。因此,研究三轴压缩条件下含瓦斯煤体破裂过程中电阻率的变化规律十分必要。方法自主研发一套测试低频条件下受载含瓦斯煤体变形破坏过程中电阻率的实验系统,测试三轴压缩条件下含瓦斯煤体电阻率的变化规律,对实验结果进行分析和解释。结果结果表明:(1)受载含瓦斯煤体的电阻率变化与所受应力存在显著的对应关系,型煤的电阻率变化规律与应力的对应关系要优于原煤的,对应力降低比较敏感;(2)受载型煤的电阻率变化规律为先上升后下降型和下降型,受载原煤的电阻率变化规律仅有下降型;(3)从原煤和型煤的物理力学以及受载过程中的变形破坏类型、受载含瓦斯煤体变形破坏过程中的煤体结构变化情况、煤的孔隙结构以及导电类型3方面分析解释受载含瓦斯煤体的电阻率变化情况;(4)对受载含瓦斯型煤电阻率变化曲线出现的2种类型进行科学合理的解释。结论研究成果可为电阻率法预测预报煤与瓦斯突出的发生提供技术支撑。

基于动态感兴趣区域和大数据的气象灾害动态预警方法

为了降低气象灾害损失,提出基于动态感兴趣区域和大数据的气象灾害动态预警方法。构建客户端/服务器模式的气象灾害动态预警框架,采集气象相关信息及受灾主体信息,经数据处理层处理后,利用改进模糊C均值聚类算法,提取卫星云图的动态感兴趣区域,确定气象灾害场景及可能影响区域,采用3个改进深度收缩自编码网络,分别提取感兴趣区域气象因素、环境因素、受灾主体因素特征,构建场景识别的Softmax分类器,确定场景与各致灾因素的关联度,结合支持向量机确定气象灾害等级、类型,实现气象灾害的动态预警。实验结果表明,该方法聚类效果突出,能识别气象灾害类型及等级。

远距离下保护层开采遗留煤柱对被保护层回采的影响研究

为探究远距离下保护层开采遗留煤柱对被保护层回采效果的影响,以平顶山六矿戊_(8)煤层的戊_(8)-22310机巷和戊_(8)-32010风巷之间遗留宽度为4 m的区段煤柱和丁_(5-6)-22190工作面为研究对象,采用理论分析、数值模拟和现场实测结合的方法,研究了煤柱影响范围、煤柱区域垂直应力分布及影响区相关参数变化规律。结果表明:宽4 m遗留煤柱的影响范围为27.3 m,极限强度为25.9 MPa,塑性区宽度为2.26 m,弹性区宽度为2.68 m;煤柱两侧工作面均回采后,其承载的最大垂直应力87.9 MPa,远超煤柱本身的承载极限;在煤柱影响范围内测得的残余瓦斯含量、压力与卸压保护区无明显差异,并均小于突出危险临界值,煤柱影响区内瓦斯得到较好释放;煤柱影响范围内未产生明显应力集中现象,遗留小煤柱对被保护效果影响较小,保护效果在倾向上有连续性,对被保护层工作面回采影响小。

山洪灾害雨量预警指标分析方法评述与展望

山洪灾害预警指标是山洪灾害预报预警的核心,我国现阶段主要采用经验法和水位流量反推法确定雨量预警指标,并逐步推广应用复合预警指标法和动态临界雨量法。在系统阐述国内外常用雨量预警指标分析方法及其特点基础上,针对山洪灾害预警指标分析中需考虑的降雨时空分布变化、高含砂水流、泥石流及其他不确定因素影响问题,提出今后雨量预警指标研究方向。

Coalbursts in China: Theory, practice and management

Coalburst is one of the most serious disasters that threaten the safe production of coal mines, and this disaster is particularly serious in China. This paper presents an overview of coalbursts in China since 1980s. From the "stress and energy" and "regional and local" perspectives, the achievements in the theory, practice and management of coalbursts in China are systematically summarized. A theoretical system of coalbursts has been formed to reveal the deformational behavior of coalbursts and explain the mechanism of coalbursts. The occurrence conditions of coalbursts are put forward and the critical stress is obtained. The stress index method for risk evaluation of coalbursts before mining is proposed, and the deformation localization prediction method of coalbursts is put forward. The relationship between energy release and absorption in the process of coalbursts is found, and the prevention and control methods of coalbursts, including the regional method, the local method and support, are presented. The safety evaluation index of coalburst prevention and control is put forward. The integrated prevention and control method for coal and gas outbursts is proposed. The prevention and control technology and equipment of coalbursts have also been developed. Amongst them, the distribution law of the critical stress in China coalburst mines is discovered. The technology and equipment for monitoring, prevention and control of coalbursts, as well as for integrated prevention and control of combined coalbursts and other disasters, have been developed. The energy-absorbing and coalburst-preventing support technology for roadways is invented, and key engineering parameters of coalburst prevention and control are pointed out. In China, coalburst prevention and control laws and standards have been developed. Technical standards for coalbursts are formulated, statute and regulations for coal mines are established, and regulatory documents are promoted.

Dynamic Effect of Landslides Triggered by Earthquake:A Case Study in Moxi Town of Luding County,China

The dynamic effect is a very important issue widely debated by scholars when studying the genetic and disaster-causing mechanisms of earthquake-triggered landslides.First,the dynamic effect mechanism and phenomena of earthquake-triggered landslides were summarized in this paper.Then,the primary types of dynamic effects were further used to interpret the Mogangling landslide in Moxi Town of Luding County,China.A field investigation,remote sensing,numerical calculation and theoretical analysis were carried out to illustrate the failure mechanism of slope rock masses affected by earthquakes.The interaction between seismic waves and slope rock masses and the induced dynamic effect of slope rock masses were primarily accounted for in the analysis.The slope topography,rock mass weathering and unloading characteristics,river erosion,regional seismogenic structure,and rock mass structure characteristics were also discussed.The results showed that the formation of the Mogangling landslide was mainly related to the high amplification effect of seismic acceleration and back slope effects,interface dynamic stress effects,and double-sided slope effects of seismic waves caused by the catastrophic Ms 7.75 Moxi Earthquake in 1786.The principles for the site and route selection of large-scale infrastructure in the planning stage and the scientific prevention of seismic geological disasters were proposed on the basis of the dynamic effect of earthquake-induced landslides.

河南省社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知引导策略仿真研究

有效引导社区居民的灾害风险感知,对降低城市灾害损失至关重要。根据收集的社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知的影响因素之间的因果关系,采用系统动力学构建了社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知引导系统模型,仿真分析了不同感知引导策略下社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知的变化趋势。研究表明,感知引导策略、环境因素、个体因素与灾害风险感知相互影响,形成了一个不断反馈的过程;按影响从大到小排列前三的引导策略依次为风险沟通、灾害宣传教育、灾害预警预报。采用系统动力学构建社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知引导系统模型,能够仿真分析引导策略的有效性,为防灾减灾政策的实施提供理论依据。

雅鲁藏布江大峡谷则隆弄高位冰岩崩灾害链动力学特征

雅鲁藏布江下游冰川分布广泛,曾发生多次高位冰岩崩事件,引发灾害链,如泥石流或碎屑流,危害巨大。本文通过野外现场调查,结合多时相卫星图像及无人机数据,以则隆弄沟为例,分析了高位灾害的地貌特征及运动动力学效应。研究表明:(1)则隆弄沟高位灾害垂向落差大,不同海拔区段微地貌形态各有差异,具有典型的垂直分带性,根据地貌展布特征及形态可划分为高陡冰蚀地形、弯曲型沟谷地形、堆积河谷地形,独特的地貌条件和地质环境使高位灾害与中低海拔地区有显著区别。(2)高位冰岩崩灾害链经历冰岩崩、碎屑流运动、堆积堵江、洪水溃决4个阶段,形成高位远程地质灾害链,运动过程中表现出复杂的动力学效应,包括冲击解体效应、散体成拱效应、动力侵蚀效应、碎屑堆积效应,为研究碎颗粒流动行为及动力学过程提供信息。(3)则隆弄冰舌处冰碛物富集,冰舌前缘及后缘分布有大量裂缝,随时间推移内部裂纹扩展累积,应力拱承载力下降而破坏致灾。未来在气候变化及强烈的构造活动影响下,雅鲁藏布江下游高位冰岩崩灾害风险极高,引发次生堵江-洪水灾害危害极大,应加强这类流域性灾害的预警及风险防范。

安顺煤矿煤岩电磁辐射测试技术研究

随安顺煤矿开采深度的加深,工作面回采时异常动力灾害发生的危险性显著提高。为防范灾害事故,可基于煤岩受载破坏过程电磁辐射强度与煤岩破坏的相关性,采用电磁辐射仪测试煤岩体的损伤破坏状态,对煤岩体动力灾害事故危险性进行预测,通过设置三采区轨道下山、四采区轨道风门0~300 m处为对照组,对四采区轨道、回风、胶带三条下山掘进巷道进行煤岩电磁辐射测试,并对其监测数据进行规律分析。研究结果表明:掘进作业严重影响巷道内应力分布与煤岩破坏状态,靠近掘进点的部位所受应力扰动更为明显,掘进较深、支护稳定的巷道所受影响较小;巷道危险区的煤岩电磁辐射强度相对较高;存在断层时,断层周围电磁辐射信号较强;掘进煤巷的应力受扰动情况比岩巷更加稳定,且所受应力普遍较小。

拦挡作用对黄土坡面泥流动力过程影响机制

泥石流运动过程中拦挡坝的拦挡作用是泥流防治研究中的一项重要议题。本研究引入侵蚀速率概念,建立了含有拦挡坝的泥流连续介质模型,阐明了拦挡坝拦挡作用对泥流运动行为和动力过程的影响。结果表明,泥流撞击拦挡坝发生漫坝时,拦挡坝遭受了逐渐加速泥流巨大的影响。拦挡坝发挥出拦截和拦挡双重功效:一方面,使得泥流灾害体横向扩展增强,纵向延伸减弱,滑移距离减少,降低了泥流的致灾范围;另一方面,降低了泥流侵蚀夹带作用,减少了泥流灾害体质量,使得灾害体面积和体积分别下降2.48%和3.63%。同时,使泥流偏离流动方向,泥流运动的平均速度下降10.62%,缓解了泥流的冲击力,削减了灾害体16.17%的致灾能量,进一步降低了泥流的致灾强度和致灾规模。引入基底地形和侵蚀速率的数值模型为泥石流动力机制提供理论支持,也为泥流防治提供技术指导。

气候变暖下基于绿色技术进步的社会最优资源配置研究

全球变暖导致自然灾害频发,绿色技术水平影响社会最优资源配置。首先建立考虑绿色技术水平、碳减排、气候灾害等的动态模型,利用动态优化理论推导出价值函数满足的哈密尔顿-雅克比-贝尔曼(HJB)方程。通过数值模拟找到了在已有的资本累积和资源约束下使得代表性家庭预期效用最大化的最优资源配置策略,并且得出结论:绿色技术的进步虽然对投资和公司价值有负面影响,也使得经济增长增速减缓,但是它降低了碳减排成本和减灾成本,同时刺激了消费,使社会总消费增加。

瓦斯压力对采场支承压力的影响及突出-冲击协同防控

随着煤炭开采深度和强度的增大,部分矿井面临煤与瓦斯突出与冲击地压双重灾害威胁,突出-冲击复合灾害成为值得关注的科学与工程难题,含瓦斯煤体采动支承压分布规律对于揭示该类型灾害机理具有重要意义。通过研究瓦斯压力变化对采动支承压力分布的影响,建立了含瓦斯煤体支承压力计算模型,得到了含瓦斯压力变化的切向应力以及塑性区半径计算公式;基于典型突出-冲击矿井工程地质条件,采用数值模拟得到了瓦斯压力对采场支承压力分布的影响特征。结果表明:随着瓦斯压力减小,巷道周边切向应力增加,而塑性区半径减小,即切向应力峰值距离煤壁更近;采场支承压力峰值与瓦斯压力负相关,峰值距煤壁距离与瓦斯压力呈正相关,均表现为二次曲线关系。现场监测数据表明,随着瓦斯抽采的进行,煤体破裂震动频次上升,当出现瓦斯压力持续下降、而震动频次急剧上升趋势时,冲击危险性较高。基于瓦斯压力变化对冲击危险的影响,建立了海石湾煤矿突出-冲击协同防控技术体系,在瓦斯治理过程,利用瓦斯压力-震动频次预警冲击危险,并优化防冲卸压工程的起始位置与强度,实现突出-冲击协同防控。