Global concerns about changes in the world＇s climate have been well documented. The consequent impacts on coastal cities, agriculture, and coastal mariculture are difficult to quantify, but it is clear that there is ...Global concerns about changes in the world＇s climate have been well documented. The consequent impacts on coastal cities, agriculture, and coastal mariculture are difficult to quantify, but it is clear that there is a need for both better estimates of future climate and improved forecasting of storms and their impacts.展开更多
The coastal zone of Benin is inherited from the last marine oscillations of the Quaternary. A rich and very fragile environment, it presented until the 1960s, a shoreline in dynamic equilibrium over the entire 125 km ...The coastal zone of Benin is inherited from the last marine oscillations of the Quaternary. A rich and very fragile environment, it presented until the 1960s, a shoreline in dynamic equilibrium over the entire 125 km of coastal line. Since the 1960s, with the construction of important development infrastructures (ports, dams, groins), the Beninese coast is now subject to risks of coastal erosion and seasonal flooding due to the overflow of lagoon water bodies. The present study, based on socio-economic surveys in the communes of Ouidah, Comè and Grand Popo, exposes the extent of coastal risks and socio-economic and environmental damage in the southwestern coastal zone of Benin. The results show that in terms of land, 2.9 ha and 5.7 ha of land have been permanently lost to coastal erosion in the communes of Ouidah and Grand Popo respectively. Similarly, 212 ha of crops of all types were affected by the flooding, including 35 ha destroyed, i.e. 6.67 ha, 11.3 ha in Comè, 4.67 ha Ouidah and 14 ha Grand Popo. Also, 6435 buildings were affected, and 4235 huts were damaged. In addition, working tools, food stocks and other items are counted among the losses recorded by coastal hazards with their corollaries of diseases. The cost of losses and damages in the 08 districts amount to 418,000,000f cfa of which 266,000,000f cfa of damage and 152,000,000f cfa of loss.展开更多
全球气候变暖、海平面上升背景下,沿海城市极端洪涝事件的发生频率和强度将显著增大,洪涝灾害风险剧增,成为沿海城市安全与发展的严峻挑战。基于深度不确定性的稳健决策(Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty,DMDU)思路,旨在提供长...全球气候变暖、海平面上升背景下,沿海城市极端洪涝事件的发生频率和强度将显著增大,洪涝灾害风险剧增,成为沿海城市安全与发展的严峻挑战。基于深度不确定性的稳健决策(Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty,DMDU)思路,旨在提供长期稳健的决策方案,成为全球沿海城市洪涝风险管理研究的新趋势。该文对比分析了稳健决策、适应路径和期权估值三类主要DMDU方法,基于不确定性、稳健性和适应性剖析了DMDU方法基本原理,提出了DMDU稳健决策的一般性框架。最后,从稳健性与决策目标、政策环境与决策参与以及方法的融合与创新三个方面对DMDU在洪涝风险领域的实践应用进行展望,以期为沿海城市适应气候变化稳健决策提供参考。展开更多
The physical vulnerability of coastal areas due to rising sea level and the flooding risk consequent,does not guarantee the implementation of protective behaviors by these risk zones’inhabitants.This study aims to es...The physical vulnerability of coastal areas due to rising sea level and the flooding risk consequent,does not guarantee the implementation of protective behaviors by these risk zones’inhabitants.This study aims to establish the link between the willingness to carry out protective behaviors and physical and perceived indicators of vulnerability.A typology of coastal flooding vulnerability,uses various physical indicators and their perceived counterparts which have been collected from 490 inhabitants of Cartagena(Colombia,declared world heritage of humanity by UNESCO in 1984),resident in areas of coastal flooding risks.The item-response theory(IRT)approach has been used.The results reveal that the implementation of protective behaviors is more related to perceived indicators,such as distance to the sea,than to actual physical vulnerability.We observe that physical vulnerability is linked to the intention to carry out protective behaviors.The presence of a defensive structure against coastal flooding could be considered as a visual cue and be a good predictor of the willingness to carry out protective behaviors.On the contrary,people in the most vulnerable situation(single-storey house)do not demonstrate a higher level of willingness to carry out protective behavior,as well of participants who lived in residential buildings which have demonstrated lower level of willingness to carry out such behaviors.Therefore,vulnerability of the house is not seen as a criterion that encourages participants to better protect themselves.展开更多
文摘Global concerns about changes in the world＇s climate have been well documented. The consequent impacts on coastal cities, agriculture, and coastal mariculture are difficult to quantify, but it is clear that there is a need for both better estimates of future climate and improved forecasting of storms and their impacts.
文摘The coastal zone of Benin is inherited from the last marine oscillations of the Quaternary. A rich and very fragile environment, it presented until the 1960s, a shoreline in dynamic equilibrium over the entire 125 km of coastal line. Since the 1960s, with the construction of important development infrastructures (ports, dams, groins), the Beninese coast is now subject to risks of coastal erosion and seasonal flooding due to the overflow of lagoon water bodies. The present study, based on socio-economic surveys in the communes of Ouidah, Comè and Grand Popo, exposes the extent of coastal risks and socio-economic and environmental damage in the southwestern coastal zone of Benin. The results show that in terms of land, 2.9 ha and 5.7 ha of land have been permanently lost to coastal erosion in the communes of Ouidah and Grand Popo respectively. Similarly, 212 ha of crops of all types were affected by the flooding, including 35 ha destroyed, i.e. 6.67 ha, 11.3 ha in Comè, 4.67 ha Ouidah and 14 ha Grand Popo. Also, 6435 buildings were affected, and 4235 huts were damaged. In addition, working tools, food stocks and other items are counted among the losses recorded by coastal hazards with their corollaries of diseases. The cost of losses and damages in the 08 districts amount to 418,000,000f cfa of which 266,000,000f cfa of damage and 152,000,000f cfa of loss.
文摘全球气候变暖、海平面上升背景下,沿海城市极端洪涝事件的发生频率和强度将显著增大,洪涝灾害风险剧增,成为沿海城市安全与发展的严峻挑战。基于深度不确定性的稳健决策(Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty,DMDU)思路,旨在提供长期稳健的决策方案,成为全球沿海城市洪涝风险管理研究的新趋势。该文对比分析了稳健决策、适应路径和期权估值三类主要DMDU方法,基于不确定性、稳健性和适应性剖析了DMDU方法基本原理,提出了DMDU稳健决策的一般性框架。最后,从稳健性与决策目标、政策环境与决策参与以及方法的融合与创新三个方面对DMDU在洪涝风险领域的实践应用进行展望,以期为沿海城市适应气候变化稳健决策提供参考。
基金supported by the National Research Agency,France within the framework of the CLIMATRisk project(ANR-15-CE03-0002-01).
文摘The physical vulnerability of coastal areas due to rising sea level and the flooding risk consequent,does not guarantee the implementation of protective behaviors by these risk zones’inhabitants.This study aims to establish the link between the willingness to carry out protective behaviors and physical and perceived indicators of vulnerability.A typology of coastal flooding vulnerability,uses various physical indicators and their perceived counterparts which have been collected from 490 inhabitants of Cartagena(Colombia,declared world heritage of humanity by UNESCO in 1984),resident in areas of coastal flooding risks.The item-response theory(IRT)approach has been used.The results reveal that the implementation of protective behaviors is more related to perceived indicators,such as distance to the sea,than to actual physical vulnerability.We observe that physical vulnerability is linked to the intention to carry out protective behaviors.The presence of a defensive structure against coastal flooding could be considered as a visual cue and be a good predictor of the willingness to carry out protective behaviors.On the contrary,people in the most vulnerable situation(single-storey house)do not demonstrate a higher level of willingness to carry out protective behavior,as well of participants who lived in residential buildings which have demonstrated lower level of willingness to carry out such behaviors.Therefore,vulnerability of the house is not seen as a criterion that encourages participants to better protect themselves.
