Fog has recently become a frequent high-impact weather phenomenon along the coastal regions of North China. Accurate fog forecasting remains challenging due to limited understanding of the predictability and mechanism...Fog has recently become a frequent high-impact weather phenomenon along the coastal regions of North China. Accurate fog forecasting remains challenging due to limited understanding of the predictability and mechanism of fog formation associated with synoptic-scale circulation. One frequent synoptic pattern of fog formation in this area is associated with cold front passage(cold-front synoptic pattern, CFSP). This paper explored the predictability of a typical CFSP fog event from the perspective of analyzing key characteristics of synoptic-scale circulation determining fog forecasting performance and the possible mechanism. The event was ensemble forecasted with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two groups of ensemble members with good and bad forecasting performance were selected and composited. Results showed that the predictability of this case was largely determined by the simulated strengths of the cold-front circulation(i.e., trough and ridge and the associated surface high). The bad-performing members tended to have a weaker ridge behind a stronger trough, and associated higher pressure over land and a weaker surface high over the sea, leading to an adverse impact on strength and direction of steering flows that inhibit warm moist advection and enhance cold dry advection transported to the focus region. Associated with this cold dry advection, adverse synoptic conditions of stratification and moisture for fog formation were produced, consequently causing failure of fog forecasting in the focus region. This study highlights the importance of accurate synoptic-scale information for improved CFSP fog forecasting, and enhances understanding of fog predictability from perspective of synoptic-scale circulation.展开更多
采用北京常规气象资料和边界层资料,包括大气风廓线仪、L波段秒级探空雷达、大气成分探测数据、道面监测数据、微波辐射计数据和地面自动站观测资料,对2014年2月19日至27日北京地区一次罕见的持续性严重雾霾天气进行综合分析。将此次低...采用北京常规气象资料和边界层资料,包括大气风廓线仪、L波段秒级探空雷达、大气成分探测数据、道面监测数据、微波辐射计数据和地面自动站观测资料,对2014年2月19日至27日北京地区一次罕见的持续性严重雾霾天气进行综合分析。将此次低能见度事件划分为两个阶段,以雾为主的阶段和以霾为主的雾霾转换阶段。对雾阶段的形成、雾阶段向雾霾转化阶段的边界层特征变化进行了分析。结果表明:(1)即便在整层相对湿度显著降低的情况下,如果PM2.5浓度显著上升,能见度依然会继续降低。(2)干暖空气混合于雾层是雾阶段向雾霾混合阶段转换的重要条件。(3)4次北风活动中,必须同时满足3个条件:(a)存在北风;(b)北风造成了低层大气气温降低(700 h Pa、850 h Pa、925 h Pa);(c)冷空气到达地面。缺少任何一个条件,所谓的弱冷空气多扩散条件的改善将不存在,能见度不会升高、污染物浓度不会降低。(4)逆温层的消失会在一定程度而非根本上改善能见度并降低污染物浓度。(5)高浓度PM2.5气团对北京的侵入自南向北发生,监测站PM2.5峰值浓度自北向南逐渐出现,PM2.5的侵入为雾阶段向雾霾转换阶段做必要准备。展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Nos. 2017YFC1404100 and 2017YFC1404104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41705081 and 41575067)the Global Change Research Program of China (No. 2015CB953904)
文摘Fog has recently become a frequent high-impact weather phenomenon along the coastal regions of North China. Accurate fog forecasting remains challenging due to limited understanding of the predictability and mechanism of fog formation associated with synoptic-scale circulation. One frequent synoptic pattern of fog formation in this area is associated with cold front passage(cold-front synoptic pattern, CFSP). This paper explored the predictability of a typical CFSP fog event from the perspective of analyzing key characteristics of synoptic-scale circulation determining fog forecasting performance and the possible mechanism. The event was ensemble forecasted with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two groups of ensemble members with good and bad forecasting performance were selected and composited. Results showed that the predictability of this case was largely determined by the simulated strengths of the cold-front circulation(i.e., trough and ridge and the associated surface high). The bad-performing members tended to have a weaker ridge behind a stronger trough, and associated higher pressure over land and a weaker surface high over the sea, leading to an adverse impact on strength and direction of steering flows that inhibit warm moist advection and enhance cold dry advection transported to the focus region. Associated with this cold dry advection, adverse synoptic conditions of stratification and moisture for fog formation were produced, consequently causing failure of fog forecasting in the focus region. This study highlights the importance of accurate synoptic-scale information for improved CFSP fog forecasting, and enhances understanding of fog predictability from perspective of synoptic-scale circulation.
文摘采用北京常规气象资料和边界层资料,包括大气风廓线仪、L波段秒级探空雷达、大气成分探测数据、道面监测数据、微波辐射计数据和地面自动站观测资料,对2014年2月19日至27日北京地区一次罕见的持续性严重雾霾天气进行综合分析。将此次低能见度事件划分为两个阶段,以雾为主的阶段和以霾为主的雾霾转换阶段。对雾阶段的形成、雾阶段向雾霾转化阶段的边界层特征变化进行了分析。结果表明:(1)即便在整层相对湿度显著降低的情况下,如果PM2.5浓度显著上升,能见度依然会继续降低。(2)干暖空气混合于雾层是雾阶段向雾霾混合阶段转换的重要条件。(3)4次北风活动中,必须同时满足3个条件:(a)存在北风;(b)北风造成了低层大气气温降低(700 h Pa、850 h Pa、925 h Pa);(c)冷空气到达地面。缺少任何一个条件,所谓的弱冷空气多扩散条件的改善将不存在,能见度不会升高、污染物浓度不会降低。(4)逆温层的消失会在一定程度而非根本上改善能见度并降低污染物浓度。(5)高浓度PM2.5气团对北京的侵入自南向北发生,监测站PM2.5峰值浓度自北向南逐渐出现,PM2.5的侵入为雾阶段向雾霾转换阶段做必要准备。
