Analysis of Summer Cold Vortex Activity Anomalies in Northeastern China and Their Relationship with Regional Precipitation and Temperature

The Northeastern China cold vortex(NCCV)is one type of strong cyclonic vortex that occurs near Northeastern China(NEC),and NCCV activities are typically accompanied by a series of hazardous weather.This paper employed an automatic algorithm to identify the NCCVs from 1979 to 2018 and analyzed their circulation patterns and climatic impacts by using the defined NCCV intensity index(NCCVI).The analysis revealed that the NCCV activities in summer exhibited a strong inter-annual variability,with an obvious periodicity of 3-4 years and 6-7 years,but without significant trends.In years when the NCCVI was high,NEC experienced negative geopotential height anomalies,cyclonic circulation,and cooler temperature anomalies,which were conducive to the maintenance and development of NCCV activities.Furthermore,large amounts of water vapor converged in NEC through two transportation routes as the NCCVs intensified,leading to a significant positive(negative)correlation with the summer precipitation(surface temperature)in NEC.The Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies were closely related to summer NCCV activities.As the Atlantic SST rose,large amounts of surface sensible and latent heat flux were transported into the lower troposphere,inducing a positive geopotential height anomaly that occurred on the east side of the heat source.As a result,an eastward diverging flow was formed in the upper troposphere and propagated downstream,i.e.,the eastward propagating Rossby wave train,which eventually led to a coupled circulation in the Ural Mountains and NEC,as well as more intensive NCCV activities in summer.

An Extreme Gale Event in East China under the Arctic Potential Vorticity Anomaly through the Northeast China Cold Vortex

Arctic changes influence not only temperature and precipitation in the midlatitudes but also contribute to severe convection.This study investigates an extreme gale event that occurred on 30 April 2021 in East China and was forced by an Arctic potential vorticity(PV)anomaly intrusion.Temperature advection steered by storms contributed to the equatorward propagation of Arctic high PV,forming the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV).At the upper levels,a PV southward intrusion guided the combination of the polar jet and the subtropical jet,providing strong vertical wind shear and downward momentum transportation to the event.The PV anomaly cooled the upper troposphere and the northern part of East China,whereas the lower levels over southern East China were dominated by local warm air,thus establishing strong instability and baroclinicity.In addition,the entrainment of Arctic dry air strengthened the surface pressure gradient by evaporation cooling.Capturing the above mechanism has the potential to improve convective weather forecasts under climate change.This study suggests that the more frequent NCCV-induced gale events in recent years are partly due to high-latitude waviness and storm activities,and this hypothesis needs to be investigated using more cases.

Objective Identification and Climatic Characteristics of Heavy-Precipitation Northeastern China Cold Vortexes

The northeastern China cold vortex(NCCV)plays an important role in regional rainstorms over East Asia.Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis dataset and the Global Precipitation Measurement product,an objective algorithm for identifying heavy-precipitation NCCV(HPCV)events was designed,and the climatological features of 164 HPCV events from 2001 to 2019 were investigated.The number of HPCV events showed an upward linear trend,with the highest frequency of occurrence in summer.The most active region of HPCV samples was the Northeast China Plain between 40°–55°N.Most HPCV events lasted 3–5 days and had radii ranging from 250 to 1000 km.The duration of HPCV events with larger sizes was longer.About half of the HPCV events moved into(moved out of)the definition region(35°–60°N,115°–145°E),and half initiated(dissipated)within the region.The initial position was close to the western boundary of the definition region,and the final position was mainly near the eastern boundary.The locations associated with the precipitation were mostly concentrated within 2000 km southeast of the HPCV systems,and they were farther from the center in the cold season than in the warm season.

The Coordinated Influence of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Arctic Sea Ice on Anomalous Northeast China Cold Vortex Activities with Different Paths during Late Summer

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)during late summer(from July to August)is identified and classified into three types in terms of its movement path using machine learning.The relationships of the three types of NCCV intensity with atmospheric circulations in late summer,the sea surface temperature(SST),and Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)in the preceding months,are analyzed.The sensitivity tests by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)are used to verify the statistical results.The results show that the coordination pattern of East Asia-Pacific(EAP)and Lake Baikal high pressure forced by SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean dipole mode(NIOD)during the preceding April and SIC anomalies in the Nansen Basin during the preceding June results in an intensity anomaly for the first type of NCCV.While the pattern of high pressure over the Urals and Okhotsk Sea and low pressure over Lake Baikal during late summer-which is forced by SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean dipole mode(SIOD)in the preceding June and SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea in the preceding April-causes the intensity anomaly of the second type.The third type is atypical and is not analyzed in detail.Sensitivity tests,jointly forced by the SST and SIC in the preceding period,can well reproduce the observations.In contrast,the results forced separately by the SST and SIC are poor,indicating that the NCCV during late summer is likely influenced by the coordinated effects of both SST and SIC in the preceding months.

Simulation of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange process in a typical cold vortex over Northeast China

A mesoscale weather research and forecasting(WRF)model was used to simulate a cold vortex that developed over Northeast China during June 19–23,2010.The simulation used high vertical resolution to reproduce the key features of the cold vortex development.Characteristics of the associated stratosphere-troposphere exchange(STE),specifically the spatiotemporal distribution of the cross-tropopause mass flux(CTF),were investigated using the Wei formula.The simulation results showed that the net mass exchange induced by the cold vortex was controlled by stratosphere-to-troposphere transport(STT)processes.In the pre-formation stage of the cold vortex(i.e.,the development of the trough and ridge),active exchange was evident.Over the lifecycle of the cold vortex,STT processes prevailed at the rear of the trough and moving vortex,whereas troposphere-to-stratosphere transport(TST)processes prevailed at the front end.This spatial pattern was caused by temporal fluctuations of the tropopause.However,because of the cancellation of the upward flux by the downward flux,the contribution of the tropopause fluctuation term to the net mass exchange was only minor.In this case,horizontal motion dominated the net mass exchange.The time evolution of the CTF exhibited three characteristics:(1)the predominance of the STT during the pre-formation stage;(2)the formation and development of the cold vortex,in which the CTF varied in a fluctuating pattern from TST to STT to TST;and(3)the prevalence of the STT during the decay stage.

Classification of Northeast China Cold Vortex Activity Paths in Early Summer Based on K-means Clustering and Their Climate Impact

The classification of the Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)activity paths is an important way to analyze its characteristics in detail.Based on the daily precipitation data of the northeastern China(NEC)region,and the atmospheric circulation field and temperature field data of ERA-Interim for every six hours,the NCCV processes during the early summer(June)seasons from 1979 to 2018 were objectively identified.Then,the NCCV processes were classified using a machine learning method(k-means)according to the characteristic parameters of the activity path information.The rationality of the classification results was verified from two aspects,as follows:(1)the atmospheric circulation configuration of the NCCV on various paths;and(2)its influences on the climate conditions in the NEC.The obtained results showed that the activity paths of the NCCV could be divided into four types according to such characteristics as the generation origin,movement direction,and movement velocity of the NCCV.These included the generation-eastward movement type in the east of the Mongolia Plateau(eastward movement type or type A);generation-southeast longdistance movement type in the upstream of the Lena River(southeast long-distance movement type or type B);generationeastward less-movement type near Lake Baikal(eastward less-movement type or type C);and the generation-southward less-movement type in eastern Siberia(southward less-movement type or type D).There were obvious differences observed in the atmospheric circulation configuration and the climate impact of the NCCV on the four above-mentioned types of paths,which indicated that the classification results were reasonable.

IMPACTS OF UPPER-LEVEL COLD VORTEX ON THE RAPID CHANGE OF INTENSITY AND MOTION OF TYPHOON MERANTI(2010)

Typhoon Meranti originated over the western North Pacific off the south tip of the Taiwan Island in 2010.It moved westward entering the South China Sea,then abruptly turned north into the Taiwan Strait,got intensified on its way northward,and eventually made landfall on Fujian province.In its evolution,there was a northwest-moving cold vortex in upper troposphere to the south of the Subtropical High over the western North Pacific(hereafter referred to as the Subtropical High).In this paper,the possible impacts of this cold vortex on Meranti in terms of its track and intensity variation is investigated using typhoon best track data from China Meteorological Administration,analyses data of 0.5×0.5 degree provided by the global forecasting system of National Centers for Environmental Prediction,GMS satellite imagery and Taiwan radar data.Results show as follows:(1)The upper-level cold vortex was revolving around the typhoon anticlockwise from its east to its north.In the early stage,due to the blocking of the cold vortex,the role of the Subtropical High to steer Meranti was weakened,which results in the looping of the west-moving typhoon.However,when Meranti was coupled with the cold vortex in meridional direction,the northerly wind changed to the southerly at the upper level of the typhoon;at the same time the Subtropical High protruded westward and its southbound steering flow gained strength,and eventually created an environment in which the southerly winds in both upper and lower troposphere suddenly steered Meranti to the north;(2)The change of airflow direction above the typhoon led to a weak vertical wind shear,which in return facilitated the development of Meranti.Meanwhile,to the east of typhoon Meranti,the overlapped southwesterly jets in upper and lower atmosphere accelerated its tangential wind and contributed to its cyclonic development;(3)The cold vortex not only supplied positive vorticity to the typhoon,but also transported cold advection to its outer bands.In conjunction with the warm and moist air masses at the lower levels,the cold vortex increased the vertical instability in the atmosphere,which was favorable for convection development within the typhoon circulation,and its warmer center was enhanced through latent heat release;(4)Vertical vorticity budget averaged over the typhoon area further shows that the intensification of a typhoon vorticity column mainly depends on horizontal advection of its high-level vorticity,low-level convergence,uneven wind field distribution and its convective activities.

Objective identification research on cold vortex and mid-summer rainy periods in Northeast China

Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identification methods of defining the annual beginning and ending dates of Northeast China CV and MS rainy periods are developed respectively. The annual beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period is as follows. In a period from April to August, if daily regional mean precipitation ryi is larger than yearly regional mean precipitation R （or 2R） on a certain day, the station precipitation rs is larger than the station yearly mean precipitation （r/ （or 2（r）） in at least 50% of stations in Northeast China, and this condition is satisfied in the following 2 （7） days, then this date is defined as the beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period. While the definition of the ending date of the MS rainy period shows the opposite process to its beginning date. With this objective identification method, the multi-year average （1981-2010） beginning date of the CV rainy period is May 3, the beginning date of the MS rainy period is June 27, the ending day of the CV rainy period is defined as the day before the beginning date of the MS rainy period, and the ending date of the MS rainy period is August 29. Meanwhile, corresponding anomaly analysis at a 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa wind, Omega and relative humidity fields all show that the definitions of the average beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have a certain circulation meaning. Furthermore, the daily evolution of the CV index, meridional and zonal wind index, etc. all show that these objectively defined beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have climate significance.

Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method

The cold vortex is a major high impact weather system in northeast China during the warm season, its frequent activities also affect the short-term climate throughout eastern China. How to objectively and quantitatively predict the intensity trend of the cold vortex is an urgent and difficult problem for current short-term climate prediction. Based on the dynamical-statistical combining principle, the predicted results of the Beijing Climate Center＇s global atmosphereocean coupled model and rich historical data are used for dynamic-statistical extra-seasonal prediction testing and actual prediction of the summer 500-hPa geopotential height over the cold vortex activity area. The results show that this method can significantly reduce the model＇s prediction error over the cold vortex activity area, and improve the prediction skills. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity test reveal that the predicted results are highly dependent on the quantity of similar factors and the number of similar years.

Comparative Forecast Verification for a Rainfall Process Caused by the Northeast Cold Vortex in Different Valid Time

The forecast of precipitation,height,temperature,divergence and water vapor divergence during a rainfall process in Northeast China during June 13-14 in 2012 were analyzed. The results showed that the rainfall process in Northeast China on June 13 and 14 in 2012 was mainly caused by the typical northeast cold vortex at 500 h Pa,southwest low-level jet at 850 and 700 h Pa,and surface cyclone. The rainfall forecast valid in 60 h was obviously better than those valid in 36 and 84 h,and the forecast error mainly resulted from the prediction error of vertical water vapor transportation.

河南一次伴有龙卷的多阶段强对流天气形成机制分析

利用常规观测资料以及区域自动站、卫星、新一代天气雷达和ERA5再分析等高时空分辨率资料,对2022年6月13日河南一次伴有局地龙卷的多阶段强对流过程(以下简称“6.13”过程)的环流形势、中尺度系统演变特征进行了分析,并探讨了该过程不同阶段对流触发维持机制以及濮阳局地龙卷的雷达监测特征。结果表明:(1)这次东北冷涡槽后西北气流形势下大范围强对流天气具有影响范围广、持续时间长、灾害天气种类多的特点。(2)雷达监测到该过程强对流系统分3个阶段相继经过河南,各阶段强回波均持续8~9 h,移速30~50 km·h^(-1),强对流系统以多单体为主,受西北气流引导自西北向东南方向移动且落区有重叠。(3)河南上空始终维持强条件不稳定层结和中等到强的垂直风切变是“6.13”过程多阶段强对流天气长时间维持的重要原因。第一阶段河南本地强对流主要是由风场日变化、局地冷空气活动和地形分布共同作用形成的边界层辐合线或辐合中心触发;第二、三阶段强对流则由前期或同期周边区域强烈发展的地面中尺度雷暴高压伴随的阵风锋(出流边界)触发。(4)濮阳县局地龙卷由发展迅速的超级单体产生,该单体回波生成后12 min出现钩状回波和中尺度气旋性涡旋、18 min出现龙卷涡旋特征(TVS),且钩状回波和中尺度气旋性涡旋较龙卷发生有6 min的提前量。

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this region.So far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried out.Based on the Beijing Climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal timescale.The results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the observations.Diagnostic analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S models.Nonetheless,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual members.In the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in summer.The results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

Mechanisms for the Formation of Northeast China Cold Vortex and Its Activities and Impacts:An Overview

In the mid 20th century, great efforts were made to investigate the formation process of high-latitude cold vortex, which is regarded as a major weather system in the atmospheric circulation. In the late 1970s, Chinese researchers noticed that the Northeast China cold vortex （NECV） is an active and frequently occurring weather system over Northeast Asia, which is generated under specific conditions of topography and land-sea thermal contrast on the local and regional scales. Thereby, the NECV study was broadened to include synoptic situations, mesoscale and dynamic features, the heavy rain process, etc. Since the 21st century, in the context of the global warming, more attention has been paid to studies of the mechanisms that cause the NECV variations during spring and early summer as well as the climatic impacts of the NECV system. Note that the NECV activity, frequent or not, not only affects local temperature and precipitation anomalies, but also regulates the amount of precipitation over northern China, the Huai River basin, and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. The NECV influence can even reach the Guangdon~ Guangxi region. However, compared to the achievements for the blocking system study, theoretical studies with regard to the NECV system are still insufficient. Research activities regarding the mechanisms for the NECV formation, particularly theoretical studies using linear or weak nonlinear methods need to be strengthened in the future. Meanwhile, great efforts should be made to deepen our understanding of the relations of the NECV system to the oceanic thermal forcing, the low-frequency atmospheric variations over mid-high latitudes, and the global warming.

The Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Different Quadrants of Northeast China Cold Vortices

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast China.Environmental conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shear)are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCVs,rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCVs(NCCV_SDHR)more challenging.Based on 5-yr hourly rainfall observations from 3196 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data,10,232 NCCV_SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV(CVC).The results show that the southeast quadrant features the highest frequency of SDHR,with stronger intensity,longer duration,and wider coverage;and the SDHR in different quadrants presents different formation mechanisms and varied temporal evolution.A new coordinate system is established relative to the CVC that uses the CVC as the origin and the radius of the NCCV(r CV)as the unit distance.In this new coordinate system,all of the NCCV_SDHR events in the 5-yr study period are synthesized.It is found that the occurrence frequency of NCCV_SDHR initially increases and then decreases with increasing distance from the CVC.The highest frequency occurs mainly between 0.8 and 2.5 times r CV from the CVC in the southeast quadrant.This can be attributed to the favorable conditions,such as convergence of the low-level shear line and abundant water vapor,which are concentrated in this region.Furthermore,high-frequency NCCV_SDHR larger than 50 mm(NCCV_SDHR50)is observed to be closer to the CVC.When NCCV_SDHR50occurs,the NCCV is in closer proximity to the subtropical high,resulting in stronger low-level convergence and more abundant water vapor.Additionally,there are lower lifting condensation levels and stronger 0-6-and 0-1-km vertical wind shears in these environments.These findings provide a valuable reference for more accurate prediction of NCCV_SDHR.

一次东北冷涡降水过程的结构特征与影响因子分析

利用加密观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对2006年7月20～24日一次东北冷涡降水过程的发生、发展及结构特征进行了分析,并利用MM5模式对此次冷涡过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,冷涡发展阶段,对流层顶存在两条急流带,一条为南伸的高纬高空急流带,另一条为副热带西风急流带,两条急流带在东北地区汇合,强副热带西风动量的输送增强了低槽的气旋性涡度,使得冷涡切断后东移、发展。冷涡发展阶段,冷涡偏西地区有低空西北强风带,该强风带与冷涡前部东南风急流形成辐合区,降水主要发生在冷涡偏东北的辐合上升区。冷涡发展及成熟阶段,300hPa以下为一深厚的冷性涡旋,以上为一暖中心,强风带位于冷涡外缘,中心为弱风区或无风区。地形试验表明,在去除地形作用后,冷涡在后期(成熟及衰亡阶段)的位置明显偏西,出现了"回撤"现象。对流层顶高位涡(PV)气流的干冷空气下沉,插入高相对湿度区后部,高PV气流叠加在对流层低层的低θse之上,干冷空气侵入具有高PV特征。高空正PV异常中心与低层(θ/p)正异常同位相叠加,使得对应诱生的气旋性环流进一步发展、加强,冷涡加强、东移。

基于Cloudsat探测的一次非典型东北冷涡结构及其降水

采用ERA-Interim气象分析资料、云顶亮温TBB资料、Cloudsat云雷达资料、降雨量资料等,对2009年6月10日至12日我国东北地区的一次冷涡天气过程进行研究,重现了该冷涡的精细三维结构和演变过程.分析表明冷涡发生前,东北亚地区处于南北双槽结构之间,随后北槽向赤道发展切断后形成东北冷涡.南槽背景的冷涡热力结构特殊,强冷空气集中在涡内西北象限,暖湿空气在东北象限,南部为相对中性空气,该配置导致北部暖锋强盛,西部冷锋仅在发展初期较强,冷涡过程没有经典挪威学派的气旋锢囚锋出现.冷涡发展初期,狭长冷舌快速入侵南下,冷舌前冷锋对流降水较强,冷舌后部左侧还有暖锋降水;冷涡发展后期,冷锋减弱,冷锋上的高层云停止降水,系统内主要为冷涡北部的暖锋雨层云降水;冷涡成熟后,中心辐合加强,有较强的对流性降水.

华北冷涡背景下强对流天气的基本特征分析

利用京津冀的危险天气报资料,统计分析2001—2008年5—8月华北冷涡背景下的强对流天气的时空分布及动力热力特征。结果表明:(1)短时强降水在沿海地区发生的概率最大,尤其是下午至傍晚。河北西北山区上午发生大风和冰雹的概率最大,下午至傍晚的大概率区向东向南明显扩大。龙卷在上午发生的概率最大,其大概率中心位于北京。(2)对流大风以西北风为主,风力多为8级。冰雹直径以5～20 mm为主。短时强降水的持续时间多在20分钟以内,降水量多为20～23 mm。对流强度的大值区位于太行山、燕山的背风坡和沿海地区。(3)在短时强降水发生前的最有利抬升指数(BLI)最大、抬升凝结高度(LCL)最高。(4)大风发生前的垂直风切变最强,抬升凝结高度最低。(5)冰雹发生前0℃高度约为3 400 m,-20℃高度约为6 400 m,风暴的相对螺旋度(SRH)>150 m2/s2。

东北冷涡不稳定能量分布特征及其与降水落区的关系

应用地面自动站1 h雨量资料和NCEP再分析资料,以一次典型的东北冷涡过程（2005年7月8～14日）为例,根据冷涡环流特征,将冷涡过程划分为发展期、成熟期、减弱期3个阶段。发现冷涡发展阶段降水主要由其南部西风锋区湿斜压不稳定产生,属于大范围混合型降水;而其他阶段降水主要由对流不稳定产生,以局地对流性降水为主。冷涡的不同发展阶段均可对应不稳定能量区,但其分布有较大差异,对流层低层的暖湿输送及辐合是不稳定能量积累的关键。发展阶段不稳定能量区分布于离冷涡中心较远的东南部;成熟期位于接近冷涡中心东南部;减弱期位于冷涡减弱形成的低压槽中。不同发展阶段不稳定能量与对流降水有不同的对应关系,冷涡发展期对流有效位能与较大的水汽通量是影响降水落区的主要因素;成熟期对流降水基本发生在对流有效位能区和925 hPa湿区的重叠区域;减弱期对流降水不但与对流有效位能、低层相对湿度有关,而且还取决于对流层低层辐合线。

一次中尺度对流系统的发生发展特征分析

通过分析2008年6月23日形成于冷涡成熟阶段的中尺度对流系统(MCS)的发生发展特征,得到:(1)MCS发生发展过程中,高空强垂直风切变维持,低层垂直风切变迅速增大。(2)湿Q矢量的低层辐合、高层辐散,加强了上升运动和次级环流,前者的增大对MCS的发展起了更大的作用。(3)雷达图上弱回波区、回波悬垂结构、三体散射现象、大的垂直累积液态水及低层速度图上的气旋式辐合的出现是冰雹发生前的有利信号。(4)湿斜压性及风垂直切变增大可能会促发MCS发生。地面风场辐合和水汽辐合加强了MCS的发展。对流层中高层干冷空气的侵入,使不稳定能量释放,导致了强对流天气的发生。

一次东北冷涡过程的结构特征与降水关系分析

利用FNL1°×1°逐6 h再分析资料、常规实况观测资料对近10年来一次最强典型东北冷涡区域性暴雨过程在东北冷涡环流演变不同阶段中的动力、热力、水汽条件及不稳定能量与降水的关系进行诊断分析。根据冷涡系统的环流特点,将冷涡过程划分为初生、发展、成熟和减弱等阶段。冷涡初生阶段,降水主要分布在垂直运动较强的位置,降水强度不大;发展阶段,斜压性较强,冷涡前部有大范围高层干冷平流、低层暖湿平流叠加,降水主要分布在冷涡前部切变辐合最强的位置,降水强度与低层辐合中心强度及垂直速度成正比;成熟阶段,冷涡演变为准正压结构,垂直上升运动的强度和范围都达最大,广泛分布在冷涡中心及前部,降水中心向冷涡中心移动,强度与发展阶段接近,该阶段降水与不稳定能量分布及中高层干冷空气入侵关系更为密切,但与动力因子相关程度下降;减弱阶段,降水变得分散,强度迅速减弱,与环流及物理量之间关系的规律不再显著。在冷涡演变的整个过程中,偏南、偏西及偏东的水汽通道对水汽的输送和集中是此次强降水得以发生发展的必要条件,其中偏南气流带来的水汽净流入是此次降水过程的主要水汽来源,降水区水汽净收入与降水强度之间存在明显的正相关关系。