Combined Wind-Storage Frequency Modulation Control Strategy Based on Fuzzy Prediction and Dynamic Control

To ensure frequency stability in power systems with high wind penetration,the doubly-fed induction generator(DFIG)is often used with the frequency fast response control(FFRC)to participate in frequency response.However,a certain output power suppression amount(OPSA)is generated during frequency support,resulting in the frequency modulation(FM)capability of DFIG not being fully utilised,and the system’s unbalanced power will be increased during speed recovery,resulting in a second frequency drop(SFD)in the system.Firstly,the frequency response characteristics of the power system with DFIG containing FFRC are analysed.Then,based on the analysis of the generation mechanism of OPSA and SFD,a combined wind-storage FM control strategy is proposed to improve the system’s frequency response characteristics.This strategy reduces the effect of OPSA and improves the FM capability of DFIG by designing the fuzzy logic of the coefficients of FFRC according to the system frequency index in the frequency support stage.During the speed recovery stage,the energy storage(ES)active power reference value is calculated according to the change of DFIG rotor speed,and the ES output power is dynamically adjusted to reduce the SFD.Finally,taking the IEEE 39-bus test system as an example,real-time digital simulation verification was conducted based on the RTLAB OP5707 simulation platform.The simulation results showthat theproposedmethodcan improve theFMcapabilityofDFIG,reduce the SFDunder thepremise of guaranteeing the rapid rotor speed recovery,and avoid the overshooting phenomenon so that the systemfrequency can be quickly restored to a stable state.

The prediction of projectile-target intersection for moving tank based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis

To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.

Heterogeneous information phase space reconstruction and stability prediction of filling body–surrounding rock combination

Traditional research believes that the filling body can effectively control stress concentration while ignoring the problems of unknown stability and the complex and changeable stress distribution of the filling body–surrounding rock combination under high-stress conditions.Current monitoring data processing methods cannot fully consider the complexity of monitoring objects,the diversity of monitoring methods,and the dynamics of monitoring data.To solve this problem,this paper proposes a phase space reconstruction and stability prediction method to process heterogeneous information of backfill–surrounding rock combinations.The three-dimensional monitoring system of a large-area filling body–surrounding rock combination in Longshou Mine was constructed by using drilling stress,multipoint displacement meter,and inclinometer.Varied information,such as the stress and displacement of the filling body–surrounding rock combination,was continuously obtained.Combined with the average mutual information method and the false nearest neighbor point method,the phase space of the heterogeneous information of the filling body–surrounding rock combination was then constructed.In this paper,the distance between the phase point and its nearest point was used as the index evaluation distance to evaluate the stability of the filling body–surrounding rock combination.The evaluated distances(ED)revealed a high sensitivity to the stability of the filling body–surrounding rock combination.The new method was then applied to calculate the time series of historically ED for 12 measuring points located at Longshou Mine.The moments of mutation in these time series were at least 3 months ahead of the roadway return dates.In the ED prediction experiments,the autoregressive integrated moving average model showed a higher prediction accuracy than the deep learning models(long short-term memory and Transformer).Furthermore,the root-mean-square error distribution of the prediction results peaked at 0.26,thus outperforming the no-prediction method in 70%of the cases.

Research on the Control Strategy of Micro Wind-Hydrogen Coupled System Based on Wind Power Prediction and Hydrogen Storage System Charging/Discharging Regulation

This paper addresses the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system,aiming to improve the power tracking capability of micro wind farms,the regulation capability of hydrogen storage systems,and to mitigate the volatility of wind power generation.A predictive control strategy for the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system is proposed based on the ultra-short-term wind power prediction,the hydrogen storage state division interval,and the daily scheduled output of wind power generation.The control strategy maximizes the power tracking capability,the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and the fluctuation of the joint output of the wind-hydrogen coupled system as the objective functions,and adaptively optimizes the control coefficients of the hydrogen storage interval and the output parameters of the system by the combined sigmoid function and particle swarm algorithm(sigmoid-PSO).Compared with the real-time control strategy,the proposed predictive control strategy can significantly improve the output tracking capability of the wind-hydrogen coupling system,minimize the gap between the actual output and the predicted output,significantly enhance the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and mitigate the power output fluctuation of the wind-hydrogen integrated system,which has a broad practical application prospect.

Combined Prediction for Vehicle Speed with Fixed Route

Achieving accurate speed prediction provides the most critical support parameter for high-level energy management of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.Nowadays,people often drive a vehicle on fixed routes in their daily travels and accurate speed predictions of these routes are possible with random prediction and machine learning,but the prediction accuracy still needs to be improved.The prediction accuracy of traditional prediction algorithms is difficult to further improve after reaching a certain accuracy;problems,such as over fitting,occur in the process of improving prediction accuracy.The combined prediction model proposed in this paper can abandon the transitional dependence on a single prediction.By combining the two prediction algorithms,the fusion of prediction performance is achieved,the limit of the single prediction performance is crossed,and the goal of improving vehicle speed prediction performance is achieved.In this paper,an extraction method suitable for fixed route vehicle speed is designed.The application of Markov and back propagation(BP)neural network in predictions is introduced.Three new combined prediction methods,all named Markov and BP Neural Network(MBNN)combined prediction algorithm,are proposed,which make full use of the advantages of Markov and BP neural network algorithms.Finally,the comparison among the prediction methods has been carried out.The results show that the three MBNN models have improved by about 19%,28%,and 29%compared with the Markov prediction model,which has better performance in the single prediction models.Overall,the MBNN combined prediction models can improve the prediction accuracy by 25.3%on average,which provides important support for the possible optimization of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle energy consumption.

A Combined Reinforcement Learning and Model Predictive Control for Car-Following Maneuver of Autonomous Vehicles

Model predictive control is widely used in the design of autonomous driving algorithms.However,its parameters are sensitive to dynamically varying driving conditions,making it difficult to be implemented into practice.As a result,this study presents a self-learning algorithm based on reinforcement learning to tune a model predictive controller.Specifically,the proposed algorithm is used to extract features of dynamic traffic scenes and adjust the weight coefficients of the model predictive controller.In this method,a risk threshold model is proposed to classify the risk level of the scenes based on the scene features,and aid in the design of the reinforcement learning reward function and ultimately improve the adaptability of the model predictive controller to real-world scenarios.The proposed algorithm is compared to a pure model predictive controller in car-following case.According to the results,the proposed method enables autonomous vehicles to adjust the priority of performance indices reasonably in different scenarios according to risk variations,showing a good scenario adaptability with safety guaranteed.

Application of Combined Prediction Model in Predicting Total Water Consumption in Ningxia

The gray GM( 1,1) prediction model and Logistic equation gray prediction model were established separately,and then the combined prediction model was established. Taking the water consumption in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from 2006 to 2012 as modeling data,the total water consumption of the whole region of Ningxia in 2018-2020 was analyzed and predicted. The results show that the accuracy of the three prediction models meets the accuracy requirements,but the gray GM( 1,1) and combined prediction models better conform to the actual situation and have better applicability.

Prediction of Passenger Flow at Sanya Airport Based on Combined Methods

It is crucial to correctly predict the passenger flow of an air route for the construction and development of an airport.Based on the passenger flow data of Sanya Airport from 2008 to 2016,this paper respectively adopted Holt-Winter Seasonal Model,ARMA and linear regression model to predict the passenger flow of Sanya Airport from 2017 to 2018.In order to reduce the prediction error and improve the prediction accuracy at meanwhile,the combinatorial weighted method is adopted to predict the data in a combined manner.Upon verification,this method has been proved to be an effective approach to predict the airport passenger flow.

Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017

As the participants of Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project(EOPC PPP),Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University(SAI) and Shanghai Astronomical Observatory(SHAO) have accumulated ～1800 days of Earth Orientation Parameters(EOP) predictions since2012 till 2017, which were up to 90 days into the future, and made by four techniques: auto-regression(AR), least squares collocation(LSC), and neural network(NNET) forecasts from SAI, and least-squares plus auto-regression(LS+AR) forecast from SHAO. The predictions were finally combined into SAISHAO COMB EOP prediction. In this work we present five-year real-time statistics of the combined prediction and compare it with the uncertainties of IERS bulletin A predictions made by USNO.

Online Fault Prediction Based on Combined AOSVR and ARMA Models

Accurate fault prediction can obviously reduce cost and decrease the probability of accidents so as to improve the performance of the system testing and maintenance. Traditional fault prediction methods are always offline that are not suitable for online and real-time processing. For the complicated nonlinear and non-stationary time series, it is hard to achieve exact predicting result with single models such as support vector regression （SVR）, artifieial neural network （ANN）, and autoregressive moving average （ARMA）. Combined with the accurate online support vector regression （AOSVR） algorithm and ARMA model, a new online approach is presented to forecast fault with time series prediction. The fault trend feature can be extracted by the AOSVR with global kernel for general fault modes. Moreover, its prediction residual that represents the local high-frequency components is synchronously revised and compensated by the sliding time window ARMA model. Fault prediction with combined AOSVR and ARMA can be realized better than with the single one. Experiments on Tennessee Eastman process fault data show the new method is practical and effective.

Research on Hydrological Time Series Prediction Based on Combined Model

Water level prediction of river runoff is an important part of hydrological forecasting.The change of water level not only has the trend and seasonal characteristics,but also contains the noise factors.And the water level prediction ability of a single model is limited.Since the traditional ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)model is not accurate enough to predict nonlinear time series,and the WNN(Wavelet Neural Network)model requires a large training set,we proposed a new combined neural network prediction model which combines the WNN model with the ARIMA model on the basis of wavelet decomposition.The combined model fit the wavelet transform sequences whose frequency are high with the WNN,and the scale transform sequence which has low frequency is fitted by the ARIMA model,and then the prediction results of the above are reconstructed by wavelet transform.The daily average water level data of the Liuhe hydrological station in the Chu River Basin of Nanjing are used to forecast the average water level of one day ahead.The combined model is compared with other single models with MATLAB,and the experimental results show that the accuracy of the combined model is improved by 7%compared with the traditional wavelet network under the appropriate wavelet decomposition function and the combined model parameters.

Dynamic simulation analysis of molten salt reactor-coupled air-steam combined cycle power generation system

A nonlinear dynamic simulation model based on coordinated control of speed and flow rate for the molten salt reactor and combined cycle systems is proposed here to ensure the coordination and stability between the molten salt reactor and power system.This model considers the impact of thermal properties of fluid variation on accuracy and has been validated with Simulink.This study reveals the capability of the control system to compensate for anomalous situations and maintain shaft stability in the event of perturbations occurring in high-temperature molten salt tank outlet parameters.Meanwhile,the control system’s impact on the system’s dynamic characteristics under molten salt disturbance is also analyzed.The results reveal that after the disturbance occurs,the controlled system benefits from the action of the control,and the overshoot and disturbance amplitude are positively correlated,while the system power and frequency eventually return to the initial values.This simulation model provides a basis for utilizing molten salt reactors for power generation and maintaining grid stability.

Hybrid Dynamic Variables-Dependent Event-Triggered Fuzzy Model Predictive Control

This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative dynamic variable and an additive dynamic variable.The addressed DETM-based fuzzy MPC issue is described as a “min-max” optimization problem(OP).To facilitate the co-design of the MPC controller and the weighting matrix of the DETM,an auxiliary OP is proposed based on a new Lyapunov function and a new robust positive invariant(RPI) set that contain the membership functions and the hybrid dynamic variables.A dynamic event-triggered fuzzy MPC algorithm is developed accordingly,whose recursive feasibility is analysed by employing the RPI set.With the designed controller,the involved fuzzy system is ensured to be asymptotically stable.Two examples show that the new DETM and DETM-based MPC algorithm have the advantages of reducing resource consumption while yielding the anticipated performance.

Adaptive Fuzzy Control System of Servomechanism for Electro-Discharge Machining Combined with Ultrasonic Vibration

For electro-discharge machining, only in the optimum state could the highest material removal rate be realized. In practical machining process, the timely elevation of the tool electrode is needed to eliminate chipping, which ordinarily occupies quite a lot of time. Therefore, besides the control of the machining parameters, the control of the optimum discharge gap and the conversion of different machining states is also needed. In this paper, the adaptive fuzzy control system of servomechanism for EDM combined with ultrasonic vibration is studied, the servomechanism of which is composed of the stepping motor comprising variable steps and the inductive synchronizer. The fuzzy control technology is used to realize the control of the frequency and the step of the servomechanism. The adaptive fuzzy controller has three inputs and two outputs, which can well meet the actual control requirements. The constitution of the fuzzy control regulation for the step frequency is the key to the design of the whole fuzzy control system of the servomechanism. The step frequency is mainly determined by the position error and the change rate of the position error. When the value of the position error is high or medium, the controlled parameters are selected to eliminate the error; when the position error is lower, the controlled parameters are selected to avoid the over-orientation and thus keep the stability of the system. According to these, a fuzzy control table is established in advanced, which is used to express the relations between the fuzzy input parameters and the fuzzy output parameters. The input parameters and the output parameters are all expressed by the level-values in fuzzy field. Therefore, the output parameters used for control can be obtained for the fuzzy control table according to the detected actual input parameters, by which the EDM combined with ultrasonic vibration is improved and the machining efficiency is increased. In addition, a stimulation program is designed by means of Microsoft Visual Basic

Temperature prediction control based on least squares support vector machines

A prediction control algorithm is presented based on least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) model for a class of complex systems with strong nonlinearity. The nonlinear off-line model of the controlled plant is built by LS-SVM with radial basis function (RBF) kernel. In the process of system running, the off-line model is linearized at each sampling instant, and the generalized prediction control (GPC) algorithm is employed to implement the prediction control for the controlled plant. The obtained algorithm is applied to a boiler temperature control system with complicated nonlinearity and large time delay. The results of the experiment verify the effectiveness and merit of the algorithm.

Real-time multi-step prediction control for BP network with delay

Real time multi step prediction of BP network based on dynamical compensation of system characteristics is suggested by introducing the first and second derivatives of the system and network outputs into the network input layer, and real time multi step prediction control is proposed for the BP network with delay on the basis of the results of real time multi step prediction, to achieve the simulation of real time fuzzy control of the delayed time system.

Control of Facies and Potential on Jurassic Hydrocarbon Accumulation and Prediction of Favorable Targets in the Hinterland Region of the Junggar Basin

Exploration practices show that the Jurassic System in the hinterland region of the Junggar Basin has a low degree of exploration but huge potential, however the oil/gas accumulation rule is very complicated, and it is difficult to predict hydrocarbon-bearing properties. The research indicates that the oil and gas is controlled by structure facies belt and sedimentary system distribution macroscopically, and hydrocarbon-bearing properties of sand bodies are controlled by lithofacies and petrophysical facies microscopically. Controlled by ancient and current tectonic frameworks, most of the discovered oil and gas are distributed in the delta front sedimentary system of a palaeo-tectonic belt and an ancient slope belt. Subaqueous branch channels and estuary dams mainly with medium and fine sandstone are the main reservoirs and oil production layers, and sand bodies of high porosity and high permeability have good hydrocarbon-bearing properties; the facies controlling effect shows a reservoir controlling geologic model of relatively high porosity and permeability. The hydrocarbon distribution is also controlled by relatively low potential energy at the high points of local structure macroscopically, while most of the successful wells are distributed at the high points of local structure, and the hydrocarbon-bearing property is good at the place of relatively low potential energy; the hydrocarbon distribution is in close connection with faults, and the reservoirs near the fault in the region of relatively low pressure have good oil and gas shows; the distribution of lithologic reservoirs at the depression slope is controlled by the distribution of sand bodies at positions of relatively high porosity and permeability. The formation of the reservoir of the Jurassic in the Junggar Basin shows characteristics of favorable facies and low-potential coupling control, and among the currenffy discovered reservoirs and industrial hydrocarbon production wells, more than 90% are developed within the scope of facies- potential index FPI〉0.5, while the FPI and oil saturation of the discovered reservoir and unascertained traps have relatively good linear correlation. By establishing the relation model between hydrocarbon- bearing properties of traps and FPI, totally 43 favorable targets are predicted in four main target series of strata and mainly distributed in the Badaowan Formation and the Sangonghe Formation, and the most favorable targets include the north and east of the Shinan Sag, the middle and south of the Mobei Uplift, Cai-35 well area of the Cainan Oilfield, and North-74 well area of the Zhangbei fault-fold zone.

A Trajectory Prediction Based Intelligent Handover Control Method in UAV Cellular Networks

The airborne base station(ABS) can provide wireless coverage to the ground in unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) cellular networks.When mobile users move among adjacent ABSs,the measurement information reported by a single mobile user is used to trigger the handover mechanism.This handover mechanism lacks the consideration of movement state of mobile users and the location relationship between mobile users,which may lead to handover misjudgments and even communication interrupts.In this paper,we propose an intelligent handover control method in UAV cellular networks.Firstly,we introduce a deep learning model to predict the user trajectories.This prediction model learns the movement behavior of mobile users from the measurement information and analyzes the positional relations between mobile users such as avoiding collision and accommodating fellow pedestrians.Secondly,we propose a handover decision method,which can calculate the users' corresponding receiving power based on the predicted location and the characteristic of air-to-ground channel,to make handover decisions accurately.Finally,we use realistic data sets with thousands of non-linear trajectories to verify the basic functions and performance of our proposed intelligent handover controlmethod.The simulation results show that the handover success rate of the proposed method is 8% higher than existing methods.

Fuzzy Shape Control Based on El man Dynamic Recursion Network Prediction Model

In the strip rolling process, shape control system possesses the characteristics of nonlinearity, strong coupling, time delay and time variation. Based on self adapting Elman dynamic recursion network prediction model, the fuzzy control method was used to control the shape on four-high cold mill. The simulation results showed that the system can be applied to real time on line control of the shape.

RESEARCH ON ACTIVE VIBRATION CONTROL BASED ON COMBINED MODEL FOR COUPLED SYSTEMS

A novel combined model of the vibration control for the coupled flexiblesystem and its general mathematic description are developed. In presented model, active and passivecontrols as well as force and moment controls are combined into a single unit to achieve theefficient vibration control of the flexible structures by multi-approaches. Considering thecomplexity of the energy transmission in the vibrating system, the transmission channels of thepower flow transmitted into the foundation are discussed, and the general forces and thecorresponding velocities are combined into a single function, respectively. Under the controlstrategy of the minimum power flow, the transmission characteristics of the power flow areinvestigated. From the presented numerical examples, it is obvious that the analytical model iseffective, and both force and moment controls are able to depress vibration energy substantially.