Application of combination weighting method in contract risk's evaluation of third party logistics

First,the analytical hierarchy process(AHP),which stands for the subjective weighting method,and the entropy method,which stands for the objective weighting method,are chosen to calculate the index weights of the contract risks of third party logistics(TPL),respectively.Then,they can determine the combination weights using the combination weighting method.Second,using the combination weights,the contract risks of TPL are evaluated through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.According to the combination weights,the most important risk factor of the contract risks of TPL is choosing sub-contractors.The results are basically consistent with the facts and show that the weights determined by the combination weighting method can avoid the man-made deviations of the subjective weighting method on the one hand,and prevent results opposite to the reality brought about by the objective weighting method on the other hand.Meanwhile,the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are that the contract risks of TPL are at a high risk level.Roughly this matches real situations,and it indicates that the combination weighting method can generate the comprehensive assessment more scientifically and more reasonably as well.

Comprehensive evaluation of the transformer oil-paper insulation state based on RF-combination weighting and an improved TOPSIS method

The accurate identification of the oil-paper insulation state of a transformer is crucial for most maintenance strategies.This paper presents a multi-feature comprehensive evaluation model based on combination weighting and an improved technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method to perform an objective and scientific evaluation of the transformer oil-paper insulation state.Firstly,multiple aging features are extracted from the recovery voltage polarization spectrum and the extended Debye equivalent circuit owing to the limitations of using a single feature for evaluation.A standard evaluation index system is then established by using the collected time-domain dielectric spectrum data.Secondly,this study implements the per-unit value concept to integrate the dimension of the index matrix and calculates the objective weight by using the random forest algorithm.Furthermore,it combines the weighting model to overcome the drawbacks of the single weighting method by using the indicators and considering the subjective experience of experts and the random forest algorithm.Lastly,the enhanced TOPSIS approach is used to determine the insulation quality of an oil-paper transformer.A verification example demonstrates that the evaluation model developed in this study can efficiently and accurately diagnose the insulation status of transformers.Essentially,this study presents a novel approach for the assessment of transformer oil-paper insulation.

AModel for the Optimization of the Shale Gas HorizontalWell Section Based on the Combination of Different Weighting Methods in the Frame of the Game Theory

Existing“evaluation indicators”are selected and combined to build a model to support the optimization of shale gas horizontal wells.Towards this end,different“weighting methods”,including AHP and the so-called entropy method,are combined in the frame of the game theory.Using a relevant test case for the implementation of the model,it is shown that the horizontal section of the considered well is in the middle sweet spot area with good physical properties and fracturing ability.In comparison with the FSI(flow scanner Image)gas production profile,the new model seems to display better abilities for the optimization of horizontal wells.

Engineering Geological Zoning of Soft-Soil Foundation Based on Combination Weighting and Extension Methods

Different criteria and factors are used in different methods of soft soil foundation settlement calculation and engineering geological zoning.The methods used are not universally suitable for complex geological environments.The post-construction settlement of soft soil foundations are especially large and difficult to calculate.In addition,there are many deficiencies in the current methods used for engineering geological zoning.Focusing on the need of establishing engineering geological zoning for areas with soft soil foundations in the Tianjin Marine Economic Area,combination weighting and extension methods were introduced.An evaluation model for the settlement of soft soil foundations was established using multiple factors and large amounts of data.This evaluation model is accurate and objective for delineating engineering geological zoning.These methods eliminate deficiencies by considering both objective and subjective factors,and help obtain an objective and accurate result.

Nonlinear combined forecasting model based on fuzzy adaptive variable weight and its application

In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error,the change tendency of the forecasted object,gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight.Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform,a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed.The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system.

Construction and Application of Combined Evaluation Model of Regional Water Quality Plan

[Objective] The aim was to study the construction and application of combined evaluation model of regional water quality plan. [Meth- od] By dint of layer analysis, subjective and objective model of entropy evaluation, the water quality plan in Jinghe was evaluated. Combined evalu- ation model based on information entropy were constructed, and considering the single model evaluation result, the optimal water quality plan was selected. [ Result] The combination weight result suggested that COD amount was the most essential indicator in water quality plan and embodied the importance of water environment protection, which met basic objective of environment protection and social, economic effects. Combined evalu- ation indicated that in the sixteen plans, plan 16 was of highest comprehensive evaluation value, and can be considered as optimum water quality plan. [ Conclusion] Combined evaluation model can effectively list the advantages of each evaluation model and improve the dependability of water quality plan, and provided a new research idea for the optimal evaluation of water pollution control plan.

考虑保供电需求的光储微电网优化配置及电能质量评估

针对用户日益迫切的保供电需求以及光伏出力与负荷用电的随机性、波动性引发的电能质量的问题,建立了考虑保供电需求的光储微电网双层优化模型,并对规划配置的微电网电能质量进行评估。该模型以等效净负荷标准差和弃光率最小为上层优化目标,以微电网有功功率损耗最小为下层优化目标,以储能满足保供电负荷的保供电需求作为附加约束条件,采用遗传算法求解。然后设计源、网、荷三类指标,采用组合赋权法确定各指标权重,实现对微电网电能质量的综合评估。最后以改进的IEEE-33系统验证了所提模型的有效性。结果表明考虑保供电需求后能够提高微电网电能质量,并在一定范围内保供电负荷越大时越能提高微电网电能质量和用户满意度。

组合赋权法在卷烟机综合性能评价中应用

【目的】客观准确地评价卷烟机设备性能,从质量水平、消耗水平和效能水平3个维度出发,构建设备综合性能评价指标体系和组合赋权评价模型。【方法】利用最大熵原理给出最优组合系数和方案评价计算步骤。开展Topsis方法、层次分析法、熵值法和组合赋权法在卷烟机设备综合性能评价的实例分析和比较工作。【结果】4种方法具有显著正相关关系,评价结果满足一致性。组合赋权法与其他评价方法相比具有最优组合系数和误差平方和小优势。

基于VMD-改进最优加权法的短期负荷变权组合预测策略

为提升短期电力负荷预测精度,提出了一种变权组合预测策略。首先,为了降低负荷数据的不平稳度,使用变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition,VMD)将负荷数据分解成了高频、低频、残差3种特征模态分量。其次,充分计及负荷数据的时序特点,参考指数加权法原理设计自适应误差重要性量化函数,并结合组合模型在时间窗口内的历史负荷数据的均方预测误差设计改进最优加权法的目标函数和约束条件,以完成子模型的准确变权。最后,针对波动较强的高频分量选定极端梯度提升(XGBoost)和卷积神经网络-长短期记忆(CNN-LSTM)模型并使用改进最优加权法进行组合预测、低频分量使用多元线性回归(MLR)模型预测、残差分量使用LSTM模型预测,叠加各模态分量的预测结果,实现了短期负荷数据的准确预测。实验结果表明,使用策略组合模型的平均绝对百分比误差为4.18%。与使用传统组合策略的组合模型相比,平均绝对百分比预测误差平均降低了0.87%。

改进雷达图法在高校宿舍火灾风险评估中的应用

由于高校宿舍人员高度密集,一旦发生火灾其极易造成严重后果,因此高校宿舍火灾问题亟待重视。为合理评估该风险,首先,借助文献从人、物、环境、管理四方面建立评价指标体系及评价量表;其次,运用合作博弈法将主观赋权结果和客观赋权结果相结合以对评价指标进行组合赋权;随后,将指标权重集转换成各指标轴夹角并计算各指标取值;最后,将经火灾风险雷达图平均周长与同面积圆周长之比为短板系数进行修正的雷达图平均面积作为评价特征量建立高校宿舍火灾风险评价方法。该方法可避免人为赋权的主观性且能以图形形式直观显示出风险管控环节中的薄弱环节。最后以某一实例验证了该评价方法的有效可行性,可为高校宿舍火灾风险评价提供新的思路。

基于可拓云理论的化工建筑施工安全风险评估

引入可拓云理论构建了化工建筑施工安全风险评估模型,在该模型内,最优最劣法和CRITIC法分别用于计算主客观权重值。研究应用博弈论确定组合赋权权重值,以消除主客观权重法之间的误差。最后,计算可拓云模型内模糊等级特征期望值Erq、模糊等级特征熵值Ers、综合评判向量B和置信度因子g等参数。结果表明:该化工项目施工安全综合风险等级为中等,模糊等级特征期望值Erq为2.952 8,模糊等级特征熵值Ers为0.016 5,置信度因子g为0.005 6,符合一致性要求,结果可信。研究结果为现场安全管理人员提供参考。

管制员个体工作负荷多维量化研究

为提高空管系统高效运行,聚焦管制员个体工作负荷建立量化模型;首先设计试验采集一线16名区域管制员的岗前与岗后各项指标数据,根据测试数据变化,选择出敏感变量,描述个体工作负荷;其次建立包含心理感知负荷、生理反应负荷与脑力工作负荷3个维度的综合评估指标体系,构建管制员个体工作负荷指数模型;然后通过熵权-客观组合法求解个体工作负荷指数最优权重,最终得出管制员个体工作负荷量化模型;最后进一步根据管制员个体工作负荷综合指数进行K-Means聚类分析,结果表明:管制员因个体不同岗后工作负荷存在差异。依据个体工作负荷指数大小,管制员可分为3类,A类管制员数量占总人数50%,岗后个体工作负荷增长最小;B类管制员数量占总人数43.75%,岗后负荷增长居中;C类管制员数量占总人数6.25%,岗后负荷增长最大,与教员对管制员能力的评分结果一致。

试验环境水下声信号的特征提取方法

水下试验环境参数的反演是水声学研究领域的重要内容。而当前研究的关键是通过对水下声信号做特征提取从而获取参数信息。针对特征提取较难、模型很难拟合等问题。本文提出了一种试验环境水下声信号的特征提取方法。将水下声信号同时用梅尔频谱倒谱系数及线性预测系数处理,两者运用特征加权组合方法得到新的特征矩阵;再应用映射插值算法对特征矩阵进行处理,获得适应神经网络输入的三通道矩阵。本文选取的网络模型为残差神经网络。利用实验室所录制的对河口水库数据集测试表明,本文提出的特征提取方法普遍优于仅利用梅尔频谱倒谱系数或线性预测系数的特征处理方法。利用单频矩形脉冲信号对环境进行深度5分类,准确率平均提升2%。利用线性调频信号对环境进行深度5分类,准确率平均提升2.03%。本文提出的特征提取方法对线性调频信号在深度分类任务下处理的结果要优于单频矩形脉冲信号处理的结果。

基于组合赋权与灰色聚类的枪弹品质评估

针对枪弹品质无法定量评估、枪弹数据利用率低等问题,提出一种基于主客观组合赋权与灰色聚类的枪弹品质评估模型。该模型采用线性加权将主客观赋权法所得权重相结合,以提高评估方法中指标赋权的科学性,构造隶属度函数,再利用灰色聚类的方法得出综合影响因数,从而得到枪弹的品质判断结果。以12.7 mm穿甲燃烧弹开展评估,并进行立靶密集度试验。结果表明,该方法具有较好的区分度,密集度指标R100,I类(12.77 cm)约域类(15.02 cm)约芋类(18.92 cm),验证了方法的有效性。

盐岩储气库稳定性评估模型与应用研究

为了解决盐岩储气库稳定性评估的模糊性和不确定性问题,降低事故发生的概率,提高判断准确度,将功效系数法引入盐岩储气库系统的评估与控制中,提出一种基于集成赋权-功效系数法的盐岩储气库稳定性评估模型。在所建评估体系下,运用反熵权法(AEW)、决策试验和评价试验法(DEMATEL)、改进组合数的有序加权平均C-OWA算子计算指标权重,三者优势互补,削弱了单一赋权方法的不足,并利用乘法合成原理获得综合权重。通过计算盐岩储气库的总功效系数值,评估整个系统的风险等级,最后利用实例,验证了模型的适用性与有效性。验证结果表明:该模型赋权方法可靠,计算结果贴近实际情况,能有效评估盐岩储气库的状态。

首都国际机场陆侧交通运行状态的评价研究

随着民航客流量的快速增长,机场陆侧交通运行状态已成为制约机场功能有效发挥的瓶颈。为了更高效合理地评估机场陆侧交通运行状态,在考虑评价过程中不确定性、主观随意性和客观失真性对评价结果影响的前提下,提出一种基于组合权重和可拓云模型的新评价方法;以首都国际机场四纬路的实地调研交通数据为例,对机场陆侧交通运行状态进行了综合评价并确定其综合评价等级。研究结果表明:新方法在机场陆侧交通运行状态评价中具有较好的可行性和适用性;评价结果在一定程度上能反映出机场陆侧交通的实际运行状态。

湖北省城市雨涝灾害韧性的时空演变及障碍因子

为探讨湖北省城市雨涝灾害韧性的时空演变及障碍因子,构建包含经济、社会、基础设施和生态环境4维度韧性评价指标体系,采用组合权重TOPSIS法测度韧性水平,结合GIS空间分析方法探究其时空演变特征,运用障碍度模型对评价结果进行障碍因子诊断。研究结果表明:湖北省城市雨涝灾害韧性整体呈上升趋势,各城市间韧性指数差异程度有所减小,韧性水平趋向均衡化发展;湖北省城市雨涝灾害韧性呈现“东西强、中间弱”空间分布格局,全局不存在显著的空间集聚性;单位面积泵站数量、万人在校大学生数、公共安全财政投入比、排水管道密度和人均GDP是制约湖北省城市雨涝灾害韧性的5大主要障碍因子。研究结果可为湖北省制定区域洪涝灾害管理政策及韧性城市规划提供参考。

基于最优组合权重的GRA-TOPSIS地下采场爆破方案优选模型

从经济技术、人员设备安全及爆破质量参数等3个方面综合考虑,选取15项二级指标作为影响采场爆破效果的评判标准,将AHP法与熵权法相结合进行赋权以确定最优权重,并将优劣解距离法(TOPSIS)与灰色关联法(GRA)相结合,构建GRA-TOPSIS综合评价模型。以某铜矿为例,初选5种爆破方案,根据评价指标对各爆破方案进行定量分析,得出其综合优越度,进而确定最优爆破方案。研究结果表明,5种爆破方案综合优越度分别为58.5%、62.0%、35.0%、68.7%、32.8%,即最优爆破方案为倾斜掏槽、80°倾斜崩矿。经矿山实践验证,评价结果与实际爆破效果吻合,表明将该模型用于采场爆破方案优选是可行的。

天然气管输系统多目标决策分析的能耗综合评价体系

针对天然气管输系统能耗评价体系中指标单一、各输量台阶综合性分析不足等问题,开展了天然气管输系统多目标决策分析的综合评价。结合系统生产实际和耗能特点,提出了自耗气量及气单耗等评价指标,然后基于博弈论思想,确定了指标组合权重,最后建立了TOPSIS-RSR综合评价模型,并对某NP线天然气管输系统的整体能耗水平进行评价。结果表明,该天然气管输系统在180亿~250亿m^(3)/a的输量台阶下,有80%的开机方案整体能耗水平基本达标,仅有10%的开机方案整体能耗水平较为优秀。各输量台阶下,软件优化和压缩机换芯改造对降低开机方案的能耗方面效果显著,其中换芯改造的效果更为明显。

基于组合赋权-偏序集的应急供应链可靠性评价

为协调好应急供应链中物资的分配与使用,基于文献分析等方法提炼应急供应链可靠性评价指标,建立由组织保障可靠性、系统制度可靠性以及运作流程可靠性3个一级指标及其对应的17个二级指标组成的应急供应链可靠性评价指标体系;利用层次分析法(AHP)、熵权法(EWM)和三角模糊数计算指标权重,将蕴含权重信息的偏序关系引入评价研究中,构建组合赋权-偏序集模型评价应急供应链的可靠性,并应用该模型评价分析C市5个县级城市的应急供应链可靠性水平。结果表明:5个县级城市的应急供应链可靠性程度可分为4类,其中,地区03的可靠性水平高,地区04、02的可靠性水平较高,地区05的可靠性水平中等,而地区01的可靠性水平低;通过对比分析,获取各地区的优势环节和薄弱环节以及需改进的地方。该评价模型可有效评估应急供应链可靠性水平。