Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis:A comprehensive analysis from a decade-long study

BACKGROUND Cirrhosis is a significant risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Variability in HCC risk among patients with cirrhosis is notable,particularly when considering the diverse etiologies of cirrhosis.AIM To identify specific risk factors contributing to HCC development in patients with cirrhosis.METHODS This retrospective study analyzed data from cirrhotic patients at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 1,2012 to September 30,2022 with at least 6 mo of followup.Patient demographics,medical histories,etiologies,and clinical characteristics were examined.Cox regression analysis was used to analyze correlations of the above parameters with hepatocarcinogenesis,while competing risk regression was used to estimate their adjusted hazard ratios accounting for death.The cumulative incidence was plotted over time.RESULTS Overall,5417 patients with cirrhosis(median age:54 years;65.8%males)were analyzed.Hepatitis B virus(HBV)was the most common etiology(23.3%),with 25%(n=1352)developing HCC over a 2.9-year follow-up period.Patients with multiple etiologies had the HCC highest incidence(30.3%),followed by those with HBV-related cirrhosis(29.5%).Significant risk factors included male sex,advanced age,hepatitis C virus(HCV)infection,elevated blood ammonia,and low platelet count.Men had a higher 5-year HCC risk than women(37.0%vs 31.5%).HBV,HCV,and HBV/HCV co-infected patients had 5-year risks of HCC of 45.8%,42.9%,and 48.1%,respectively,compared to 29.5%in nonviral hepatitis cases,highlighting the significant HCC risk from viral hepatitis,especially HBV,and underscores the importance of monitoring these high-risk groups.CONCLUSION In conclusion,HBV-related cirrhosis strongly correlates with HCC,with male sex,older age,viral hepatitis,elevated blood ammonia,and lower albumin and platelet levels increasing the risk of HCC.

Factors Predicting Progression to Severe COVID-19: A Competing Risk Survival Analysis of 1753 Patients in Community Isolation in Wuhan, China

Most studies of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)progression have focused on the transfer of patients within secondary or tertiary care hospitals from regular wards to intensive care units.Little is known about the risk factors predicting the progression to severe COVID-19 among patients in community iso-lation,who are either asymptomatic or suffer from only mild to moderate symptoms.Using a multivari-able competing risk survival analysis,we identify several important predictors of progression to severe COVID-19—rather than to recovery—among patients in the largest community isolation center in Wuhan,China from 6 February 2020(when the center opened)to 9 March 2020(when it closed).All patients in community isolation in Wuhan were either asymptomatic or suffered from mild to moderate COVID-19 symptoms.We performed competing risk survival analysis on time-to-event data from a cohort study of all COVID-19 patients(n=1753)in the isolation center.The potential predictors we inves-tigated were the routine patient data collected upon admission to the isolation center:age,sex,respira-tory symptoms,gastrointestinal symptoms,general symptoms,and computed tomography(CT)scan signs.The main outcomes were time to severe COVID-19 or recovery.The factors predicting progression to severe COVID-19 were:male sex(hazard ratio(HR)=1.29,95%confidence interval(CI)1.04–1.58,p=0.018),young and old age,dyspnea(HR=1.58,95%CI 1.24–2.01,p<0.001),and CT signs of ground-glass opacity(HR=1.39,95%CI 1.04–1.86,p=0.024)and infiltrating shadows(HR=1.84,95%CI 1.22–2.78,p=0.004).The risk of progression was found to be lower among patients with nausea or vomiting(HR=0.53,95%CI 0.30–0.96,p=0.036)and headaches(HR=0.54,95%CI 0.29–0.99,p=0.046).Our results suggest that several factors that can be easily measured even in resource-poor set-tings(dyspnea,sex,and age)can be used to identify mild COVID-19 patients who are at increased risk of disease progression.Looking for CT signs of ground-glass opacity and infiltrating shadows may be an affordable option to support triage decisions in resource-rich settings.Common and unspecific symptoms(headaches,nausea,and vomiting)are likely to have led to the identification and subsequent community isolation of COVID-19 patients who were relatively unlikely to deteriorate.Future public health and clinical guidelines should build on this evidence to improve the screening,triage,and monitoring of COVID-19 patients who are asymtomatic or suffer from mild to moderate symptoms.

Stenting as a bridge to surgery in obstructing colon cancer:Longterm recurrence pattern and competing risk of mortality

BACKGROUND Stenting as a bridge to curative surgery(SBTS)for obstructing colon cancer(OCC)has been associated with possibly worse oncological outcomes.AIM To evaluate the recurrence patterns,survival outcomes,and colorectal cancer(CRC)-specific death in patients undergoing SBTS for OCC.METHODS Data from 62 patients undergoing SBTS at a single tertiary centre over ten years between 2007 and 2016 were retrospectively examined.Primary outcomes were recurrence patterns,overall survival(OS),cancer-specific survival(CSS),and CRC-specific death.OS and CSS were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier curves.Competing risk analysis with cumulative incidence function(CIF)was used to estimate CRC-specific mortality with other cause-specific death as a competing event.Fine-Gray regressions were performed to determine prognostic factors of CRC-specific death.Univariate and multivariate subdistribution hazard ratios and their corresponding Wald test P values were calculated.RESULTS 28 patients(45.2%)developed metastases after a median period of 16 mo.Among the 18 patients with single-site metastases:Four had lung-only metastases(14.3%),four had liver-only metastases(14.3%),and 10 had peritoneum-only metastases(35.7%),while 10 patients had two or more sites of metastatic disease(35.7%).The peritoneum was the most prevalent(60.7%)site of metastatic involvement(17/28).The median follow-up duration was 46 mo.26(41.9%)of the 62 patients died,of which 16(61.5%)were CRC-specific deaths and 10(38.5%)were deaths owing to other causes. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS probabilities were 88%, 74%, and 59%;1-, 3-, and5-year CSS probabilities were 97%, 83%, and 67%. The highest CIF for CRC-specific death at 60 mowas liver-only recurrence (0.69). Liver-only recurrence, peritoneum-only recurrence, and two ormore recurrence sites were predictive of CRC-specific death.CONCLUSIONThe peritoneum was the most common metastatic site among patients undergoing SBTS. Liveronlyrecurrence, peritoneum-only recurrence, and two or more recurrence sites were predictors ofCRC-specific death.

Multiple myeloma survival in New South Wales, Australia, by treatment era to 2020

Objective: Australia has relatively high multiple myeloma(MM) incidence and mortality rates. Advancements in MM treatment over recent decades have driven improvements in MM survival in high-income countries;however, reporting in Australia is limited. We investigated temporal trends in population-wide MM survival across 3 periods of treatment advancements in New South Wales(NSW), Australia.Methods: Individuals with an MM diagnosis in the NSW Cancer Registry between 1985 and 2015 with vital follow-up to 2020, were categorized into 3 previously defined treatment eras according to their diagnosis date(1985±1995, chemotherapy only;1996±2007, autologous stem cell transplantation;and 2008±2015, novel agents including proteasome inhibitors and immunomodulatory drugs). Both relative survival and cause-specific survival according to Fine and Gray's competing risks cumulative incidence function were calculated by treatment era and age at diagnosis.Results: Overall, 11,591 individuals were included in the study, with a median age of 70 years at diagnosis. Five-year relative survival improved over the 36-year(1985±2020) study period(31.0% in 1985±1995;41.9% in 1996±2007;and 56.1% in 2008±2015). For individuals diagnosed before 70 years of age, the 5-year relative survival nearly doubled, from 36.5% in 1985±1995 to 68.5% in 2008±2015. Improvements for those > 70 years of age were less pronounced between 1985±1995 and 1996±2007;however, significant improvements were observed for those diagnosed in 2008±2015. Similar overall and age-specific patterns were observed for causespecific survival. After adjustment for gender and age at diagnosis, treatment era was strongly associated with both relative and cause-specific survival(P < 0.0001).Conclusions: Survival of individuals with MM is improving in Australia with treatment advances. However, older age groups continue to experience poor survival outcomes with only modest improvements over time. Given the increasing prevalence of MM in Australia, the effects of MM treatment on quality of life, particularly in older age, warrant further attention.

Competence Set Analysis Under Risk and Uncertainty

The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.

Level of education and mortality after radical prostatectomy

Estimating the risk of competing mortality is of importance in men with early prostate cancer to choose the most appropriate way of management and to avoid over- or under-treatment. In this study, we investigated the impact of the level of education in this context. The study sample consisted of 2630 patients with complete data on level of education （college, university degree, master craftsmen, comparable profession, or others）, histopathological tumor stage （organ confined or extracapsular）, lymph node status （negative or positive）, and prostatectomy specimen Gleason score （〈7, 7, or 8-10） who underwent radical prostatectomy between 1992 and 2007. Overall, prostate cancer-specific, competing, and second cancer-related mortalities were study endpoints. Cox proportional hazard models for competing risks were used to study combined effects of the variables on these endpoints. A higher level of education was independently associated with decreased overall mortality after radical prostatectomy （hazard ratio [HR]： 0.75, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]： 0.62-0.91, P = 0.0037）. The mortality difference was attributable to decreased second cancer mortality （HR： 0.59, 95% Ch 0.40-0.85, P = 0.0052） and noncancer mortality （HR： 0.73, 95% Ch 0.55-0.98, P = 0.0345） but not to differences in prostate cancer-specific mortality （HR： 1.16, 95% Ch 0.79-1.69, P = 0.4536 in the full model）. In conclusion, the level of education might serve as an independent prognostic parameter supplementary to age, comorbidity, and smoking status to estimate the risk of competing mortality and to choose optimal treatment for men with early prostate cancer who are candidates for radical prostatectomy.

An Additive Perks-Weibull Model with Bathtub-Shaped Hazard Rate Function

In this article,an additive Perks—Weibull model capable of modeling life-time data with bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is proposed.The model is derivedby the sum of the hazard rates of Perks and Weibull distributions.Some statisticalproperties including shapes of density and hazard rate functions,moments,and orderstatistics are explored.The method of maximum likelihood estimation is used for esti-mating the model parameters.The goodness-of-fit of the model for three real datasetshaving bathtub-shaped hazard rate functions has been illustrated.Finally,an appli-cation for competing risk data is also given to show the flexibility of the proposedmodel.