Hydrocarbon gas huff-n-puff optimization of multiple horizontal wells with complex fracture networks in the M unconventional reservoir

The oil production of the multi-fractured horizontal wells(MFHWs) declines quickly in unconventional oil reservoirs due to the fast depletion of natural energy. Gas injection has been acknowledged as an effective method to improve oil recovery factor from unconventional oil reservoirs. Hydrocarbon gas huff-n-puff becomes preferable when the CO_(2) source is limited. However, the impact of complex fracture networks and well interference on the EOR performance of multiple MFHWs is still unclear. The optimal gas huff-n-puff parameters are significant for enhancing oil recovery. This work aims to optimize the hydrocarbon gas injection and production parameters for multiple MFHWs with complex fracture networks in unconventional oil reservoirs. Firstly, the numerical model based on unstructured grids is developed to characterize the complex fracture networks and capture the dynamic fracture features.Secondly, the PVT phase behavior simulation was carried out to provide the fluid model for numerical simulation. Thirdly, the optimal parameters for hydrocarbon gas huff-n-puff were obtained. Finally, the dominant factors of hydrocarbon gas huff-n-puff under complex fracture networks are obtained by fuzzy mathematical method. Results reveal that the current pressure of hydrocarbon gas injection can achieve miscible displacement. The optimal injection and production parameters are obtained by single-factor analysis to analyze the effect of individual parameter. Gas injection time is the dominant factor of hydrocarbon gas huff-n-puff in unconventional oil reservoirs with complex fracture networks. This work can offer engineers guidance for hydrocarbon gas huff-n-puff of multiple MFHWs considering the complex fracture networks.

Well interference evaluation considering complex fracture networks through pressure and rate transient analysis in unconventional reservoirs

Severe well interference through complex fracture networks(CFNs)can be observed among multi-well pads in low permeability reservoirs.The well interference analysis between multi-fractured horizontal wells(MFHWs)is vitally important for reservoir effective development.Well interference has been historically investigated by pressure transient analysis,while it has shown that rate transient analysis has great potential in well interference diagnosis.However,the impact of complex fracture networks(CFNs)on rate transient behavior of parent well and child well in unconventional reservoirs is still not clear.To further investigate,this paper develops an integrated approach combining pressure and rate transient analysis for well interference diagnosis considering CFNs.To perform multi-well simulation considering CFNs,non-intrusive embedded discrete fracture model approach was applied for coupling fracture with reservoir models.The impact of CFN including natural fractures and frac-hits on pressure and rate transient behavior in multi-well system was investigated.On a logelog plot,interference flow and compound linear flow are two new flow regimes caused by nearby producers.When both NFs and frac-hits are present in the reservoir,frac-hits have a greater impact on well#1 which contains frac-hits,and NFs have greater impact on well#3 which does not have frac-hits.For all well producing circumstances,it might be challenging to see divergence during pseudosteady state flow brought on by frac-hits on the logelog plot.Besides,when NFs occur,reservoir depletion becomes noticeable in comparison to frac-hits in pressure distribution.Application of this integrated approach demonstrates that it works well to characterize the well interference among different multi-fractured horizontal wells in a well pad.Better reservoir evaluation can be acquired based on the new features observed in the novel model,demonstrating the practicability of the proposed approach.The findings of this study can help for better evaluating well interference degree in multi-well systems combing PTA and RTA,which can reduce the uncertainty and improve the accuracy of the well interference analysis based on both field pressure and rate data.

Horizontal Well Interference Performance and Water Injection Huff and Puff Effect on Well Groups with Complex Fracture Networks:A Numerical Study

Well interference has become a common phenomenon with the increasing scale of horizontal well fracturing.Recent studies on well interference in horizontal wells do not properly reflect the physical model of the postfracturing well groups and the realistic fracturing process of infill wells.Establishing the correspondence between well interference causative factors and manifestations is of great significance for infill well deployment and secondary oil recovery.In this work,we develop a numerical model that considers low velocity non-Darcy seepage inshale reservoirs to study the inter-well interferencephenomenon that occurs in theSantanghufield,andconstruct an explicit hydraulic fracture and complex natural fracture network model with an embedded discrete fracture model,focusing on the effect of fracture network morphology on well interactions.The model also considers a multi-segment wellbore model to accommodate the effect of inter-well crossflow on wellbore tubular flow.The changes in formation pressure and water saturation during fracturing are performed by controlling the injection pressure and water injection rate.The result shows that the shape of the fracture network generated by the infill well with the old well determines the subsequent fluid and oil-increasing performance of the disturbed well.The synergistic production or competitive relationship formed by fractures with different connectivity between the two wells determines the positive and negative effects of the interference.The paper also investigates the adaptation study of water injection huff and puff schemes for well groups with different connectivity,and demonstrated a potential yield increase of up to 10.85%under adaptation injection.This method of identifying well interference based on the production dynamics of affected wells and the subsequent corresponding water injection method provides valuable references for the selection of secondary oil recovery measures.

Numerical simulation on proppant migration and placement within the rough and complex fractures

Hydraulic fracturing is a key technology for the development of unconventional hydrocarbon resources.The proppant placement morphology determines the fracture conductivity,thus affecting the reservoir stimulation effect.In this paper,the proppant migration and placement within complex fractures was studied by considering the fracture wall roughness through computational fluid mechanics-discrete element method(CFD-DEM)in numerical simulation,which is a key approach to study the proppant migration and placement.The results show that the proppant placement non-uniformity,proppant migration capacity,and proppant volume filled in the far-end and the secondary branched fracture are enhanced within the rough fracture compared with those within smooth fractures.The proppant migration capacity is increased within the fracture at low inclination angles(<60°)and low approach angles(<90°),and the proppant placement area is larger in the inclined fracture than that in the vertical fracture.The rise of injection rate and fracturing fluid viscosity causes more proppants migrate to far-end or secondary fractures,resulting in a non-proppant area within the near-wellbore fracture.An increase by 1.3 times in the injection rate and 3 times in the fracturing fluid viscosity leads to a decrease by 26.6%and 27%,respectively,in the proppant placement area within the near-wellbore fracture.The staged injection with small size proppants followed by large size proppants increases the proppant placement area in the primary fracture by 13%-26%,and that with large size proppants followed by small size proppants increases the proppant placement area by 19%-25%,which is due to that the latter method facilitates filling of the secondary branched fracture.The injection location mainly affects the proppant filling degree within the near-wellbore fractures.Compared with the upper injection,the middle and lower injection is not beneficial to filling of proppants within the near-wellbore fracture.

Calibrate complex fracture model for subsurface flow based on Bayesian formulation

In practical development of unconventional reservoirs,fracture networks are a highly conductive transport media for subsurface fluid flow.Therefore,it is crucial to clearly determine the fracture properties used in production forecast.However,it is different to calibrate the properties of fracture networks because it is an inverse problem with multi-patterns and highcomplexity of fracture distribution and inherent defect of multiplicity of solution.In this paper,in order to solve the problem,the complex fracture model is divided into two sub-systems,namely"Pattern A"and"Pattern B."In addition,the generation method is grouped into two categories.Firstly,we construct each sub-system based on the probability density function of the fracture properties.Secondly,we recombine the sub-systems into an integral complex fracture system.Based on the generation mechanism,the estimation of the complex fracture from dynamic performance and observation data can be solved as an inverse problem.In this study,the Bayesian formulation is used to quantify the uncertainty of fracture properties.To minimize observation data misfit immediately as it occurs,we optimize the updated properties by a simultaneous perturbation stochastic algorithm which requires only two measurements of the loss function.In numerical experiments,we firstly visualize that small-scale fractures significantly contribute to the flow simulation.Then,we demonstrate the suitability and effectiveness of the Bayesian formulation for calibrating the complex fracture model in the following simulation.

Performance-based fractal fracture model for complex fracture network simulation

The paper presents a novel hydraulic fracturing model for the characterization and simulation of the complex fracture network in shale gas reservoirs. We go beyond the existing method that uses planar or orthogonal conjugate fractures for representing the ＇＇complexity＇＇ of the network. Bifurcation of fractures is performed utilizing the Lindenmayer system based on fractal geometry to describe the fracture propagation pattern, density and network connectivity. Four controlling parameters are proposed to describe the details of complex fractures and stimulated reservoir volume（SRV）. The results show that due to the multilevel feature of fractal fractures, the model could provide a simple method for contributing reservoir volume calibration. The primary-and second-stage fracture networks across the overall SRV are the main contributions to the production, while the induced fracture network just contributes another 20% in the late producing period. We also conduct simulation with respect to different refracturing cases and find that increasing the complexity of the fracture network provides better performance than only enhancing the fracture conductivity.

A new approach for flow simulation in complex hydraulic fracture morphology and its application:Fracture connection element method

Efficient flow simulation and optimization methods of hydraulic fracture morphology in unconventional reservoirs are effective ways to enhance oil/gas recovery.Based on the connection element method(CEM)and distribution of stimulated reservoir volume,the complex hydraulic fracture morphology was accurately described using heterogeneous node connection system.Then a new fracture connection element method(FCEM)for fluid flow in stimulated unconventional reservoirs with complex hydraulic fracture morphology was proposed.In the proposed FCEM,the arrangement of dense nodes in the stimulated area and sparse nodes in the unstimulated area ensures the calculation accuracy and efficiency.The key parameter,transmissibility,was also modified according to the strong heterogeneity of stimulated reservoirs.The finite difference and semi-analytical tracking were used to accurately solve the pressure and saturation distribution between nodes.The FCEM is validated by comparing with traditional numerical simulation method,and the results show that the bottom hole pressure simulated by the FCEM is consistent with the results from traditional numerical simulation method,and the matching rate is larger than 95%.The proposed FCEM was also used in the optimization of fracturing parameters by coupling the hydraulic fracture propagation method and intelligent optimization algorithm.The integrated intelligent optimization approach for multi-parameters,such as perforation number,perforation location,and displacement in hydraulic fracturing is proposed.The proposed approach was applied in a shale gas reservoir,and the result shows that the optimized perforation location and morphology distribution are related to the distribution of porosity/permeability.When the perforation location and displacement are optimized with the same fracture number,NPV increases by 70.58%,which greatly improves the economic benefits of unconventional reservoirs.This work provides a new way for flow simulation and optimization of hydraulic fracture morphology of multi-fractured horizontal wells in unconventional reservoirs.

A multi-mechanism numerical simulation model for CO_(2)-EOR and storage in fractured shale oil reservoirs

Under the policy background and advocacy of carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS),CO_(2)-EOR has become a promising direction in the shale oil reservoir industry.The multi-scale pore structure distribution and fracture structure lead to complex multiphase flow,comprehensively considering multiple mechanisms is crucial for development and CO_(2) storage in fractured shale reservoirs.In this paper,a multi-mechanism coupled model is developed by MATLAB.Compared to the traditional Eclipse300 and MATLAB Reservoir Simulation Toolbox(MRST),this model considers the impact of pore structure on fluid phase behavior by the modified Peng—Robinson equation of state(PR-EOS),and the effect simultaneously radiate to Maxwell—Stefan(M—S)diffusion,stress sensitivity,the nano-confinement(NC)effect.Moreover,a modified embedded discrete fracture model(EDFM)is used to model the complex fractures,which optimizes connection types and half-transmissibility calculation approaches between non-neighboring connections(NNCs).The full implicit equation adopts the finite volume method(FVM)and Newton—Raphson iteration for discretization and solution.The model verification with the Eclipse300 and MRST is satisfactory.The results show that the interaction between the mechanisms significantly affects the production performance and storage characteristics.The effect of molecular diffusion may be overestimated in oil-dominated(liquid-dominated)shale reservoirs.The well spacing and injection gas rate are the most crucial factors affecting the production by sensitivity analysis.Moreover,the potential gas invasion risk is mentioned.This model provides a reliable theoretical basis for CO_(2)-EOR and sequestration in shale oil reservoirs.

Application of computer-assisted surgery techniques in the management of zygomatic complex fractures

Patients suffering from zygomatic complex fractures always present facial deformity and dyslunctions, and thereafter develop psychological and physiological problems. It is really hard to get an ideal prog- nosis for the zygomatic complex fractures because of the complicated anatomical structures. Computer- assisted surgery techniques, as the new emerging auxiliary methods, can optimize the surgical protocol, predict operation outcomes, and improve the accuracy and quality of the operation. Meanwhile the postoperative complications can be reduced effectively. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the application of computer-assisted surgery techniques in the management of zygomatic complex fractures.

Characterization of complex hydraulic fractures in Eagle Ford shale oil development through embedded discrete fracture modeling

This study extends an integrated field characterization in Eagle Ford by optimizing the numerical reservoir simulation of highly representative complex fractured systems through embedded discrete fracture modeling(EDFM). The bottom-hole flowing pressure was history-matched and the field production was forecasted after screening complex fracture scenarios with more than 100 000 fracture planes based on their propped-type. This work provided a greater understanding of the impact of complex-fractures proppant efficiency on the production. After compaction tables were included for each propped-type fracture group, the estimated pressure depletion showed that the effective drainage area can be smaller than the complex fracture network if modeled and screened by the EDFM method rather than unstructured gridding technique. The essential novel value of this work is the capability to couple EDFM with third-party fracture propagation simulation automatically, considering proppant intensity variation along the complex fractured systems. Thus, this work is pioneer to model complex fracture propagation and well interference accurately from fracture diagnostics and pseudo 3 D fracture propagation outcomes for multiple full wellbores to capture well completion effectiveness after myriads of sharper field simulation cases with EDFM.

Surgical management of zygomatic complex fractures in a major trauma centre

Aim: To analyse the epidemiology, aetiology, and surgical management of zygomatic complex (ZMC) fractures in our major trauma centre, and to compare the number and location of fixation points and surgical access in our patient cohort with the literature. Methods: Retrospective analysis of all operative cases (Open Reduction and Internal Fixation) of zygomatic complex fractures over a one year period (2016). Results: A greater proportion of patients in our cohort (54%) were treated with one-point fixation compared to the literature, with the zygomaticomaxillary (ZM) buttress being the most popular fixation point (90%). ZM buttress and frontozygomatic (FZ) suture were the commonest choices for two-point fixations (70%). Buccal sulcus incision was used for ZM access in all cases. For FZ access, upper blepharoplasty incision was the most common (56%). For infra-orbital margin access, transconjunctival incision was the most common (75%). There was no significant association between number of fixation points and presence of associated injuries, impact of injury, or time to operation. There were no post-operative complications. Conclusion: A greater proportion of patients in our cohort were successfully treated with one point fixation compared to the literature, and fewer patients underwent orbital floor exploration and repair in our cohort compared to the literature. This study highlights the ongoing variation in the surgical management of ZMC fractures.

Proppant transport law in multi-branched fractures induced by volume fracturing

To further clarify the proppant transport and placement law in multi-branched fractures induced by volume fracturing, proppant transport simulation experiments were performed with different fracture shapes, sand ratios, branched fracture opening time and injection sequence of proppants in varied particle sizes. The results show that the settled proppant height increases and the placement length decreases in main fractures as the fracturing fluid diverts gradually to the branched fractures at different positions. The flow rate in branched fractures is the main factor affecting their filling. The diverion to branched fractures leads to low flow rate and poor filling of far-wellbore branched fractures. The inclined fracture wall exerts a frictional force on the proppant to slow its settlement, thus enhancing the vertical proppant distribution in the fracture. The increase of sand ratio can improve the filling of near-wellbore main fracture and far-wellbore branched fracture and also increase the settled proppant height in main fracture. Due to the limitation of fracture height, when the sand ratio increases to a certain level, the increment of fracture filling decreases. When branched fracture is always open(or extends continuously), the supporting effect on the branched fractures is the best, but the proppant placement length within the main fractures is shorter. The fractures support effect is better when it is first closed and then opened(or extends in late stage) than when it is first opened and then closed(or extends in early stage). Injecting proppants with different particle sizes in a specific sequence can improve the placement lengths of main fracture and branched fracture. Injection of proppants in an ascending order of particle size improves the near-wellbore fracture filling, to a better extent than that in a descending order of particle size.

Simulation of the Production Performances of Horizontal Wells with a Fractured Shale Gas Reservoir

The production performances of a well with a shale gas reservoir displaying a complex fracture network are simulated.In particular,a micro-seismic cloud diagram is used to describe the fracture network,and accordingly,a production model is introduced based on a multi-scale flow mechanism.A finite volume method is then exploited for the integration of the model equations.The effects of apparent permeability,conductivity,Langmuir volume,and bottom hole pressure on gas well production are studied accordingly.The simulation results show that ignoring the micro-scale flow mechanism of the shale gas leads to underestimating the well gas production.It is shown that after ten years of production,the cumulative gas production difference between the two scenarios with and without considering the micro-scale flow mechanisms is 19.5%.The greater the fracture conductivity,the higher the initial gas production of the gas well and the cumulative gas production.The larger the Langmuir volume,the higher the gas production rate and the cumulative gas production.With the reduction of the bottom hole pressure,the cumulative gas production increases,but the growth rate gradually decreases.

Coupled heat-fluid-solid numerical study on heat extraction potential of hot dry rocks based on discrete fracture network model

Fracture networks within hot dry rock(HDR)geothermal reservoirs are complex,and heat extraction via water injection is thus a coupled process of heat-fluid-solid multifield.In this paper,utilizing the theory of normally distributed random functions,we develop a corresponding pre-processing subprogram to establish a discrete network model of complex fracture distribution in HDR reservoirs;then construct a heat-fluid-solid finite element model for heat extraction via water injection and compare the numerical solution with the analytical solution of the one-dimensional non-isothermal consolidation problem for verification.The numerical simulation results show that the main factors affecting the heat extraction efficiency of HDR reservoirs include fracture width,fracture density,fracture permeability,and matrix permeability.When a HDR reservoir is injected with water for heat extraction,there is a certain threshold value of these influential parameters,beyond which the outlet temperature drops significantly,resulting in an obvious thermal breakthrough.When injecting water for heat extraction,the values of these parameters should be controlled and kept at a reasonable level,otherwise,the HDR reservoir may enter a thermal breakthrough stage in advance,which is not conducive for long-period heat extraction.Influenced by the random distribution of complex fractures,the leading edge of the cold front may present an irregular distribution.During the process of heat extraction,the stress gradually changes from a compressional state to a tensile state,which induces further damage to the HDR reservoir.

Reconstruction of complex orbital fracture with titanium implants

AIM: To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of complex orbital fracture reconstruction with titanium implants. METHODS: A retrospective review of 46 patients treated with complex orbital fractures reconstruction using titanium implants from January 2005 to December 2008 was conducted. The following data were recorded: age, gender, mechanism of injury, preoperative and postoperative orbital CT, visual acuity, diplopia, ocular motility and Hertel exophthalmometer. RESULTS: The most common cause was motor vehicle accident (47.8%), followed by industrial injury (30.4%). All patients had improved appearance after operation and CT scan at one week after operation showed the fracture defects of orbit and neighboring areas had been reconstructed. Forty-six cases had various degrees of enophthalmos before operation. Among them, 32 cases were completely corrected, 11 cases improved obviously and 3 cases had no improvement after operation. Thirty-six patients with visual acuity =20/60 revealed diplopia of various degrees, including 26 patients had diplopia in right ahead and/or reading positions. At the sixth month after operation, diplopia disappeared in five patients, 7 patients still had diplopia in right ahead and/or reading positions, 14 patients had diplopia in positions rather than right ahead and reading positions (<20 degrees) and ten patients had diplopia only at peripheral gazing (>20 degrees). All patients had various degrees of ocular motility disorders before operation. At the sixth month after operation, eyeball movement disorder disappeared in 9 patients, 31 patients showed improvement and 6 patients had no improvement. Complications of implant infection, rejection and displacement were not reported after operation. CONCLUSION: The application of titanium implants in the repair of complex orbital fractures greatly improves the appearance and functional results, which is a favorable material for plastic surgery of complex orbital fracture.

Functional Outcomes of Traumatic Complex Acetabulum Fractures with Open Reduction and Internal Fixation: 200 Cases

Objective: Acetabular fractures are common injuries in Iran. We assess the functional outcome of open reduction and internal fixation management of displaced Complex acetabular fractures. Materials and Methods: We analyzed a case series of patients with open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) for complex acetabular fractures. Two hundred patients (132 men, 68 women) in four age groups including with a mean age of 43.39 ± 6.18 years (range 20 - 59 years) and a mean follow-up of 82.34 ± 12.48 months (range 18 - 109 months) met the inclusion criteria. Functional outcome at final follow-up was graded assessed according to Harris score. Factors affecting were defined. Results: Anatomic reduction was achieved in 192 hips, imperfect in 8 and poor in none. Radiological outcome revealed excellent results in 128 (64%) hips, good in eight, fair in five and none in poor. Harris score were excellent in 139 (69.5%) hips, good in 43 (21.5%) and fair in 18 (9%) and poor in none. The anatomical reduction results had a favorable final functional outcome. (0.003) However, BMI (P Conclusion: Optimal functional and radiological outcomes have been achieved with anatomic postoperative reduction. Also experience of specialist, on time surgery and good recovery lead to receiving excellent functional outcome with at least complications.

Complex proximal femoral fracture in a young patient followed up for 3 years: A case report

BACKGROUND Ipsilateral femoral neck and intertrochanteric fractures in young patients are extremely rare,and there is no reference for fracture classification and treatment options.CASE SUMMARY We report a 27-year-old male patient who sustained ipsilateral femoral neck and intertrochanteric fractures and was treated with a proximal femoral locking compression plate(PFLCP).The literature on these fractures was also reviewed.At the last follow-up three years after surgery,the patient had no obvious pain in the hip,and the range of motion in the hip joint was slightly limited,but met the normal life and work needs.There were no complications such as necrosis of the femoral head.CONCLUSION The PFLCP can be used to treat these complex proximal femoral fractures,and selection should be based on the patient's specific fractures.

A technique for enhancing tight oil recovery by multi-field reconstruction and combined displacement and imbibition

A seepage-geomechanical coupled embedded fracture flow model has been established for multi-field coupled simulation in tight oil reservoirs,revealing the patterns of change in pressure field,seepage field,and stress field after long-term water injection in tight oil reservoirs.Based on this,a technique for enhanced oil recovery(EOR)combining multi-field reconstruction and combination of displacement and imbibition in tight oil reservoirs has been proposed.The study shows that after long-term water flooding for tight oil development,the pressure diffusion range is limited,making it difficult to establish an effective displacement system.The variation in geostress exhibits diversity,with the change in horizontal minimum principal stress being greater than that in horizontal maximum principal stress,and the variation around the injection wells being more significant than that around the production wells.The deflection of geostress direction around injection wells is also large.The technology for EOR through multi-field reconstruction and combination of displacement and imbibition employs water injection wells converted to production and large-scale fracturing techniques to restructure the artificial fracture network system.Through a full lifecycle energy replenishment method of pre-fracturing energy supplementation,energy increase during fracturing,well soaking for energy storage,and combination of displacement and imbibition,it effectively addresses the issue of easy channeling of the injection medium and difficult energy replenishment after large-scale fracturing.By intensifying the imbibition effect through the coordination of multiple wells,it reconstructs the combined system of displacement and imbibition under a complex fracture network,transitioning from avoiding fractures to utilizing them,thereby improving microscopic sweep and oil displacement efficiencies.Field application in Block Yuan 284 of the Huaqing Oilfield in the Ordos Basin has demonstrated that this technology increases the recovery factor by 12 percentage points,enabling large scale and efficient development of tight oil.

Construction of complex digital rock physics based on full convolution network

Digital rock physics(DRP)is a paramount technology to improve the economic benefits of oil and gas fields,devise more scientific oil and gas field development plans,and create digital oil and gas fields.Currently,a significant gap is present between DRP theory and practical applications.Conventional digital-core construction focuses only on simple cores,and the recognition and segmentation effect of fractures and pores of complex cores is poor.The identification of rock minerals is inaccurate,which leads to the difference between the digital and actual cores.To promote the application of DRP in developing oil and gas fields,based on the high-precision X-ray computed tomography scanning technology,the U-Net deep learning model of the full convolution neural network is used to segment the pores,fractures,and matrix from the complex rock core with natural fractures innovatively.Simultaneously,the distribution of rock minerals is divided,and the distribution of rock conditions is corrected by X-ray diffraction.A pore—fracture network model is established based on the equivalent radius,which lays the foundation for fluid seepage simulation.Finally,the accuracy of the established a digital core is verified by the porosity measured via nuclear magnetic resonance technology,which is of great significance to the development and application of DRP in oil and gas fields.

A method for predicting the probability of formation of complex hydraulic fracture networks in shale reservoirs: development and application

Shales can form a complex fracture network during hydraulic fracturing, which greatly increases the stimulated reservoir volume (SRV) and thus significantly increases oil or gas production. It is therefore important to accurately predict the probability of formation of the hydraulic fracture network for shale gas exploration and exploitation. Conventional discriminant criteria are presented as the relationship curves of stress difference vs. intersection angle. However, these methods are inadequate for application in the field. In this study, an effective and quantitative prediction method relating to the probability of complex fracture network formation is proposed. First, a discriminant criterion of fracture network was derived. Secondly, Monte Carlo simulation was applied to calculate the probability of the formation of the complex fracture network. Then, the method was validated by applying it to individual wells of two active shale gas blocks in the Sichuan Basin, China. Results show that the probabilities of fracture network are 0.98 for well JY1 and 0.26 for well W204, which is consistent with the micro-seismic hydraulic fracturing monitoring and actual gas production. Finally, the method was further extended to apply for the regional scale of the Sichuan Basin, where the general probabilities of fracture network formation are 0.32–1 and 0.74–1 for Weiyuan and Jiaoshiba blocks, respectively. The Jiaoshiba block has, therefore, an overall higher probability for formation of fracture network than the Weiyuan block. The proposed method has the potential in further application to evaluation and prediction of hydraulic fracturing operations in shale reservoirs.