Analysis of Asynchronism-Synchronism of Regional Precipitation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer Areas

The local characteristics of multi-dimensional modeling method of multivariate copula. A new modeling remedy this defect. Different types of copula distribution random variables are seldom considered in the general method, called pair-copula construction, is introduced to functions are allowed to be introduced in this method. Correspondingly, the related characteristics of complex multivariate can be described by a cascade of pair-copula acting on two variables at a time. In the analysis of asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitation in WED inter- basin water transfer areas, the pair-copula construction method is compared with the general modeling method of mul- tivariate copula. The results show that the local dependence structure would exist among hydrologic variables even in three-dimensional cases. In this situation, the general modeling method of multivariate copula would face difficulties in fitting distribution. However, the pair-copula construction method could capture the local information of hydrologic variables efficiently by introducing different types of copula distribution functions. Moreover, the compensation ca- pacity of water resources is strong in different hydrological areas of WED water transfer project. The asynchronous frequency of wetness and dryness is 69.64% and the favorable frequency for water transfer is 46.15%.

Assessment of rehabilitation strategies for lakes affected by anthropogenic and climatic changes: A case study of the Urmia Lake, Iran

Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs.The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental,economic,and social repercussions.Urmia Lake,located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem,has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%.Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers.This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating(MODSIM)model.The model simulated changes in the lake's water volume under various scenarios.These included diverting water from incoming rivers,cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%,releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons,treated wastewater utilization,and inter-basin transfers.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP)was utilized to analyze the simulation results.Expert opinions with AHP analysis,acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake.Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake.Following this,inter-basin water transfers are suggested,with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds.It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks,advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country.This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought,normal,and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake.According to our projection,implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake's level and volume,potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.

Characteristics of vapor based on complex networks in China

The uneven spatial distribution of stations providing precipitable water vapor(PWV)observations in China hinders the effective use of these data in assimilation,nowcasting,and prediction.In this study,we proposed a complex network framework for exploring the topological structure and the collective behavior of PWV in the mainland of China.We used the Pearson correlation coefficient and transfer entropy to measure the linear and nonlinear relationships of PWV amongst different stations and to set up the undirected and directed complex networks,respectively.Our findings revealed the statistical and geographical distribution of the variables influencing PWV networks and identified the vapor information source and sink stations.Specifically,the findings showed that the statistical and spatial distributions of the undirected and directed complex vapor networks in terms of degree and distance were similar to each other(the common interaction mode for vapor stations and their locations).The betweenness results displayed different features.The largest betweenness ratio for directed networks tended to be larger than that of the undirected networks,implying that the transfer of directed PWV networks was more efficient than that of the undirected networks.The findings of this study are heuristic and will be useful for constructing the best strategy for the PWV data in applications such as vapor observational networks design and precipitation prediction.

Inter-basin water transfer-supply model and risk analysis with consideration of rainfall forecast information

This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast information from the global forecast system (GFS), the actual diversion amount can be determined according to the inter-basin water transfer rules with the decision tree method; secondly, the reservoir supply operation system is used to distribute water resource of the inter-basin water transfer reservoir; finally, the integrated risk assessment model is built by selecting the reliability of water transfer, the reliability (water shortage risk), the resiliency and the vulnerability of water supply as risk analysis indexes. The case study shows that the inter-basin water transfer-supply model with rainfall forecast information considered can reduce the comprehensive risk and improve the utilization efficiency of water resource, as compared with conventional and optimal water distribution models.

Multi-reservoir joint operating rule in inter-basin water transfer-supply project

The joint operation of inter-basin water transfer-supply(IBWTS)project can be more complex when there is joint water demand in multi-reservoir system and multi-importing reservoirs simultaneously transferring water from exporting reservoir.In this study,a joint operating rule is proposed for the purpose of solving such complex operation problem.This rule is composed of a set of sub-rules,including hedging rule curves of virtual aggregation reservoir(i.e.equivalent reservoir)and other individual reservoirs,water-transfer rule curves of each individual reservoir,as well as some of important assisted rules.These assisted rules refer to allocation models for water transfer-supply.In the proposed rule,an equivalent reservoir is established to determine under what condition the water supply should be reduced and specify the total supplied water for joint water demand(i.e.aggregation method).Allocation models are developed to distribute the total transferred water into each importing reservoir and determine the water releases for joint water demand by each member reservoir of the aggregation system(i.e.decomposition method).And these models are integrated with a set of influence factors such as hydrologic characteristics,reservoir storage or vacant storage,regulating ability,water-supply pressure,and so on.The aggregation of multi-reservoirs and the disaggregation of water quantities are taken into a whole consideration to reduce the complexity in reallocation of water target storage or water release.Finally,the proposed rule is applied to the North-line IBWTS Project in Liaoning Province,China.The results indicate that the proposed rule can take full advantage of hydrologic compensation in basins and capacity compensation in reservoirs.Thus it can improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in system.

Financing Model Decision of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects

Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects require the appropriate financing model to attract large amounts of social investment.Therefore,financing model decision becomes the key of engineering construction.In three aspects,such as the subject,the object and the target of the financing model,Grey Target Model is established in this paper.First,the complex financing mode decision problems of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects are decomposed by using hierarchical decomposition method.Then Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) method is used to calculate the comprehensive weight of evaluation index.Experts' opinions financing model are transformed into the evaluation matrix based on the Dephi method.The Weighted Grey Target Model is used to calculate the approaching degree of financing model and assists financing mode decision.In addition,this paper takes the water diversion project from the Han to the Wei River of Shaanxi Province as a verification example for the model.For other water diversion projects,the evaluation results are also reliable and provide theoretical references for the financing model decision of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects.

基于Swarm的跨流域调水多Agent交互和协作仿真研究

阐述和分析以供、需方聚集体Agent相互之间、Agent与环境进行交互—协作—适应为特征的跨流域调水水资源配置和调度管理的复杂适应性。引入合同网协议,设计了改进的合同网协议以及任务分派、角色分配和承诺的兑现等交互协作行为规则,以及合同网协议自动状态机与算法。提出了跨流域调水多Agent仿真模型。与基于传统系统动力学的水资源系统配置和调度管理仿真方法不同,采用复杂适应系统为科学基础的系统仿真技术,在Swarm平台上建立仿真实验系统,仿真结果验证了多Agent模型和基于合同网协议的交互协作行为规则的合理性。

敏捷调水多Agent模型及仿真

借鉴和引进"复杂适应系统理论"和现代制造中"敏捷制造"的理念,提出协调、快速、安全的敏捷调水策略,并指导建立敏捷调水多A gen t模型。内容包括:定义敏捷调水的含义,分析敏捷调水过程,针对不同类型的调水计划,敏捷调水多A gen t模型算法所花费代价的比较与仿真实验分析。

复杂跨流域调水系统联合优化调度研究——以陕西省引嘉入汉调水工程为例

针对两个调水区联合调水供给同一受水区的复杂跨流域联合调度,建立了多目标联合优化调度模型,采用大系统分解协调(LSSDC)理论与方法,构建了联合调度最优决策制定模式,并以陕西省汉江与嘉陵江流域内的引汉济渭及引嘉入汉调水工程为例,通过1955-2010年55 a长系列优化调度,验证了复杂调水系统内部互补性及其优化调度规则的实用性。结果表明:通过联合优化调度,复杂调水系统能够有效提高调水效率,降低调水过程波动,更利于工程实际运行管理。

一种复杂适应系统仿真的Agent混合结构模型

分析了复杂适应系统的多Agent建模方法以及系统仿真框架,提出了一种复杂适应系统仿真的Agent混合结构模型,在该模型中构造了基于知识的协调控制器,通过它来协调慎思式过程和反应式过程.最后,结合跨流域调水管理这一复杂过程,对跨流域调水管理复杂适应系统仿真的Agent结构模型的应用进行了实例分析.

水溶性杯[4]芳烃衍生物与稀土铽[Ⅲ]离子形成配合物的荧光行为

The luminescent behavior on formation 1∶1 complex of 25,26,27,28 tetra carboxylic acid 5,11,17,23 calixarenesulfonate(L 2) and terbium(Ⅲ) ion was investigated by means of fluorescence spectra. The results showed that the pH value of the solution had obviousan influence on the fluorescence intensity of L 2·Tb 3+ complex, but the fluorescence intensity was hardly changed over the pH range from 6 to 11. The complex exhibits a higher emission quantum yield( φ =0.31) in aqueous solution, which indicates energy transfer type emission. The complexation behavior of L 2 with trivalent lanthanoid ions(Tb 3+ and Eu 3+ ) was also studied in aqueous boracic acid(hydrochloric acid buffer solution(pH 8.0) at 25 ℃ by UV Vis and fluorescence measurements. The spectrophotometric titrations have been performed to give the complex stability constants( K S) for the stoichiometric 1∶1 inclusion complexation of L 2 with Tb 3+ and Eu 3+ . The complex stability for L 2·Eu 3+ was higher than that for L 2·Tb 3+ , but no characteristic fluorescence was found.

Ru_3(CO)_9(TPPTS)_3催化的水/有机两相芳香硝基化合物CO选择性还原的研究

将水溶性膦 /钌配合物 Ru3( CO) 9( TPPTS) 3( TPPTS:三苯基膦三 -间磺酸钠 )用于以 CO为还原剂的水 /有机两相芳香硝基化合物选择还原为芳胺的反应 ,发现相转移催化剂对反应有明显的促进作用 ,其中以添加十六烷基三甲基溴化铵 ( CTAB)的效果最好 .以邻氯硝基苯为底物考察了相转移催化剂浓度、 Na OH浓度、反应温度、压力等对反应转化率和选择性的影响 .当反应条件为 1 2 0℃ ,4 MPa,3 mol/ L Na OH时 ,反应 8h,邻氯硝基苯的转化率和邻氯苯胺的选择性均可达到 99.9% .而且对含有羰基、氰基的芳香硝基化合物也有很高的活性和选择性 .催化剂循环 3次后 ,邻氯硝基苯的转化率和邻氯苯胺的收率仍可达到 92 %

温控相转移配体及催化(ⅩⅥ)──Rh/PETPP催化的水/有机两相邻氯硝基苯CO还原反应动力学的研究

首次将具有“温控相转移催化”功能的非离子表面活性水溶性膦／铑配合物用于以CO为还原剂的水／有机两相芳香硝基物选择还原反应．以邻氯硝基苯为底物考察了反应温度、CO压力、底物浓度、催化剂浓度和水／有机两相体积比等对反应转化率和选择性的影响．结果表明，当反应条件为 150℃和4 MPa，反应32 h时，邻氯硝基苯的转化率为 98％，邻氯苯胺的选择性接近 100％．动力学研究表明，底物浓度和催化剂浓度分别对反应速率呈一级，反应的表观活化能Ea=131．13 kJ／mol．

北京市南水北调配套工程环路输水工程勘察关键技术

北京市南水北调环路输水工程沿线地质环境及周边环境条件极其复杂,场地地层分布不稳定、土质错综交互沉积、侵蚀切割,地下水分布复杂,产生及引发诸多工程地质问题及难题,勘察工作难度极大。整个勘察工作历时14a,采用先进技术和多种勘察手段,开展了工程地质、水文地质、地震安全评估、地质灾害评估、地面沉降及对施工降水影响分析、岩土工程基坑设计、水工隧洞支护技术与围岩变形分析、穿越重要建筑物安全性评估、有害危险气体调查分析及污染源防控影响分析等工作与研究,解决工程各阶段遇到的诸多地质问题及难题,取得多项创新技术成果。勘察技术成果对城市复杂地质环境条件下建设地下大型输水工程具有重要的借鉴意义。

基于模糊神经网络的Agent反应器结构及实现

针对复杂适应系统(ComplexAdaptiveSystem,CAS)仿真中的Agent结构建模问题,提出了一种基于模糊神经网络的Agent反应器结构及实现,以提高Agent混合模型的性能,满足复杂适应系统仿真中对Agent反应器的快速性、自适应性与准确性的要求。最后,结合跨流域调水管理复杂适应系统仿真中Agent反应器的规则存储与推理过程,进行了实例分析。

南水北调西线一期工程调水对黄河流域影响分析

基于复杂适应系统理论,对水资源系统进行分析。以水资源的配置和利用为主线,根据复杂适应理论的受限生成过程建模要素和步骤,构建宏观经济水资源综合模型。通过模型框架,将水资源系统中的宏观经济子系统和水资源子系统相互作用通过内生变量联接起来,分析南水北调西线工程对黄河流域受水区的影响,得到黄河流域二级区不同配水方案相对于无调水情况的GDP变化、单方水效益、入海水量和主要断面流量过程变化等。

跨流域调水管理仿真的Agent结构模型

鉴于传统水资源开发配置和调度管理普遍采用系统动力学方法进行系统仿真,有一定局限性,采用复杂适应系统理论以及多Agent建模方法分析了跨流域调水管理过程的层次结构,结合南水北调东线水资源调度管理系统,设计了一种基于复杂适应系统仿真的Agent结构模型,并对Agent结构模型的形式化描述和特点进行分析,最后基于swarm仿真平台进行了仿真和验证。结果表明跨流域调水管理仿真的Agent结构模型可以协调好智能体的反应性和适应性,满足了跨流域调水管理复杂适应系统仿真中对Agent的不同要求。

新型水溶性手性钌催化剂的制备及应用

利用发烟硫酸磺化手性双胺双膦配体[(R,R)-C6P2(NH)2],合成了PNNP-型水溶性手性双胺双膦配体[(R,R)-C6P2(NH)2(SO3Na)4],并分别与简单的钌、铑络合物反应,制备水溶性手性钌络合物催化剂[(R,R)-C6P2(NH)2(SO3Na)4RuCl2]和铑络合物催化剂[(R,R)-C6P2(NH)2(SO3Na)4RhCl].经元素分析、红外光谱和核磁共振等对手性配体及手性Ru络合物进行了结构表征.进而用这些水溶性的钌、铑络合物催化剂或水溶性手性配体与铱络合物[IrHCl2(COD)]2组成的混合催化体系研究了多种芳香酮的不对称转移氢化.结果表明,在以异丙醇作为氢源时,对芳香酮的不对称转移氢化都具有较好的催化活性.与铑、铱催化体系相比,水溶性手性钌络合物催化体系具有更高的活性和对映选择性.对于苯乙酮的氢化,其转化率和对映选择性分别达到91.6%和93.0%e.e..此外,进一步考察了反应温度和KOH用量对水溶性手性钌络合物催化苯乙酮不对称转移氢化性能的影响,并将水溶性手性钌络合物催化体系应用于多种芳香酮的不对称转移氢化,获得了高的收率和对映选择性,分别可达92.0%和96.4%e.e..研究结果表明,水溶性手性钌络合物[(R,R)-C6P2(NH)2(SO3Na)4RuCl2]是芳香酮不对称氢转移催化氢化的优良催化剂.

用于复杂适应系统仿真的Agent免疫学习系统

分析了复杂适应系统(Complex Adaptive System,CAS)仿真中对Agent学习系统的要求以及基于遗传算法的Agent规则学习系统的不足,提出了一种基于改进免疫遗传算法的Agent学习系统,在该算法中将领域知识和经验作为疫苗对规则库中的规则进行免疫接种,并利用混沌变异模型对规则进行变异操作,产生新的规则。最后,结合跨流域调水管理复杂适应系统仿真中的Agent规则学习过程,对Agent的规则学习和演化机制进行了算法验证及实例分析。

RuCl_3/TPPTS催化CO选择还原间氯硝基苯反应

将水溶性膦/钌配合物用于以CO为还原剂的水/有机两相间氯硝基苯选择还原为间氯苯胺的反应。考察了十六烷基三甲基溴化铵(CTAB)与氢氧化钠(NaOH)浓度、反应温度、CO压力以及膦/钌比例等因素对反应结果的影响。研究结果表明,当反应条件为135℃、CO压力3 MPa、NaOH浓度2 mol/L时,反应8 h,间氯硝基苯的转化率为97％,间氯苯胺的选择性可达到99％以上。通过简单的相分离操作就能将水相中的催化剂循环使用,循环使用3次后,间氯硝基苯的转化率和间氯苯胺的收率仍可达到89％以上。