Predicting tourism traffic demand accurately plays an important role in making effective policies for tourist administration. It helps to distribute the resources reasonably and avoid the tourism congestions. This pap...Predicting tourism traffic demand accurately plays an important role in making effective policies for tourist administration. It helps to distribute the resources reasonably and avoid the tourism congestions. This paper considered the noise interference and proposed a hybrid model, combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), deep belief network (DBN) and Google trends, for tourism traffic demand prediction. This model firstly applied dislocation weighted synthesis method to combine Google trends into a search composite index, and then it denoised the series with EEMD. EEMD extracted the high frequency noise from the original series. The low frequency series of search composite index would be used to forecast the low frequency tourism traffic series. Taking the inbound tourism in Shanghai as an example, this paper trained the model and predicted the next 12 months tourism arrivals. The conclusion demonstrated that the forecast error of EEMD-DBN model is lower remarkably than the baselines of ARIMA, GM(1,1), FTS, SVM, CES and DBN model. This revealed that nosing processing is necessary and EEMD-DBN forecast model can improve the prediction accuracy.展开更多
Steel-concrete composite structures that share the advantages of both steel structure and concrete structure have been developed rapidly and used widely. It has been a popular structure in high-rise buildings in recen...Steel-concrete composite structures that share the advantages of both steel structure and concrete structure have been developed rapidly and used widely. It has been a popular structure in high-rise buildings in recent years. Although more and more composite structures have been used in earthquake area, only a few literatures about fragility analysis of this type of structure are available. In this paper, a fragility analysis method based on performance is proposed, in which both the uncertainty due to variability in structures and ground motion are considered. Seismic fragility analysis is performed for a 15-story composite beam-concrete-filled square steel tube column frame by the proposed method. The top-drift-angle and the story-drift-angle are used as quantitative indexes to define the four different performance levels. Then seismic demand probability analysis is carried out and fragility curves are derived to assess the seismic performance of this type of structure.展开更多
Cloud computing provides a new paradigm for hardware and software infrastructure design as well as planning and usage of information systems. It offers flexible, efficient, inexpensive, and quality services. This pape...Cloud computing provides a new paradigm for hardware and software infrastructure design as well as planning and usage of information systems. It offers flexible, efficient, inexpensive, and quality services. This paper proposes an on-demand service system using the cloud computing architecture and analyzes important issues such as organization, management, and monitoring of distributed service resources; context-aware on-demand service modeling, on-demand automated service composition in large-scale networks, and service system analysis based on complex system theory. Continuous Operating Reference Station （CORS） of a geo-spatial information system is taken as an example, and its architecture is analyzed from the perspective of cloud computing. Some fundamental questions are raised about its service.展开更多
文摘Predicting tourism traffic demand accurately plays an important role in making effective policies for tourist administration. It helps to distribute the resources reasonably and avoid the tourism congestions. This paper considered the noise interference and proposed a hybrid model, combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), deep belief network (DBN) and Google trends, for tourism traffic demand prediction. This model firstly applied dislocation weighted synthesis method to combine Google trends into a search composite index, and then it denoised the series with EEMD. EEMD extracted the high frequency noise from the original series. The low frequency series of search composite index would be used to forecast the low frequency tourism traffic series. Taking the inbound tourism in Shanghai as an example, this paper trained the model and predicted the next 12 months tourism arrivals. The conclusion demonstrated that the forecast error of EEMD-DBN model is lower remarkably than the baselines of ARIMA, GM(1,1), FTS, SVM, CES and DBN model. This revealed that nosing processing is necessary and EEMD-DBN forecast model can improve the prediction accuracy.
文摘Steel-concrete composite structures that share the advantages of both steel structure and concrete structure have been developed rapidly and used widely. It has been a popular structure in high-rise buildings in recent years. Although more and more composite structures have been used in earthquake area, only a few literatures about fragility analysis of this type of structure are available. In this paper, a fragility analysis method based on performance is proposed, in which both the uncertainty due to variability in structures and ground motion are considered. Seismic fragility analysis is performed for a 15-story composite beam-concrete-filled square steel tube column frame by the proposed method. The top-drift-angle and the story-drift-angle are used as quantitative indexes to define the four different performance levels. Then seismic demand probability analysis is carried out and fragility curves are derived to assess the seismic performance of this type of structure.
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China ("973" Program) under Grant No. 2007CB310805the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China ("863" Program) under Grant No. 2007AA12Z309
文摘Cloud computing provides a new paradigm for hardware and software infrastructure design as well as planning and usage of information systems. It offers flexible, efficient, inexpensive, and quality services. This paper proposes an on-demand service system using the cloud computing architecture and analyzes important issues such as organization, management, and monitoring of distributed service resources; context-aware on-demand service modeling, on-demand automated service composition in large-scale networks, and service system analysis based on complex system theory. Continuous Operating Reference Station （CORS） of a geo-spatial information system is taken as an example, and its architecture is analyzed from the perspective of cloud computing. Some fundamental questions are raised about its service.
