To enhance the performance of the prediction intervals (PIs), a novel very short-term probabilistic prediction method for wind speed via nonlinear quantile regression (NQR) based on adaptive least absolute shrinkage a...To enhance the performance of the prediction intervals (PIs), a novel very short-term probabilistic prediction method for wind speed via nonlinear quantile regression (NQR) based on adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (ALASSO) and integrated criterion (IC) is proposed. The ALASSO method is studied for shrinkage of output weights and selection of variables. Furthermore, for the better performance of PIs, composite weighted linear programming (CWLP) is proposed to modify the conventional linear programming cost function of quantile regression (QR), by combining it with Bayesian information criterion (BIC) as an IC to optimize the coefficients of PIs. Then, the multiple fold cross model (MFCM) is utilized to improve the PIs performance. Multistep probabilistic prediction of 15-minute wind speed is performed based on the real wind farm data from the northeast of China. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through the performances' comparisons with conventional methods.展开更多
We propose a trust-region type method for a class of nonsmooth nonconvex optimization problems where the objective function is a summation of a(probably nonconvex)smooth function and a(probably nonsmooth)convex functi...We propose a trust-region type method for a class of nonsmooth nonconvex optimization problems where the objective function is a summation of a(probably nonconvex)smooth function and a(probably nonsmooth)convex function.The model function of our trust-region subproblem is always quadratic and the linear term of the model is generated using abstract descent directions.Therefore,the trust-region subproblems can be easily constructed as well as efficiently solved by cheap and standard methods.When the accuracy of the model function at the solution of the subproblem is not sufficient,we add a safeguard on the stepsizes for improving the accuracy.For a class of functions that can be“truncated”,an additional truncation step is defined and a stepsize modification strategy is designed.The overall scheme converges globally and we establish fast local convergence under suitable assumptions.In particular,using a connection with a smooth Riemannian trust-region method,we prove local quadratic convergence for partly smooth functions under a strict complementary condition.Preliminary numerical results on a family of Ei-optimization problems are reported and demonstrate the eficiency of our approach.展开更多
Built-in-test （BIT） is responsible for equipment fault detection, so the test data correct- ness directly influences diagnosis results. Equipment suffers all kinds of environment stresses, such as temperature, vibra...Built-in-test （BIT） is responsible for equipment fault detection, so the test data correct- ness directly influences diagnosis results. Equipment suffers all kinds of environment stresses, such as temperature, vibration, and electromagnetic stress. As embedded testing facility, BIT also suffers from these stresses and the interferences/faults are caused, so that the test course is influenced, resulting in incredible results. Therefore it is necessary to monitor test data and judge test failures. Stress monitor and BIT self-diagnosis would redound to BIT reliability, but the existing anti- jamming researches are mainly safeguard design and signal process. This paper focuses on test results monitor and BIT equipment （BITE） failure judge, and a series of improved approaches is proposed. Firstly the stress influences on components are illustrated and the effects on the diagnosis results are summarized. Secondly a composite BIT program is proposed with information integra- tion, and a stress monitor program is given. Thirdly, based on the detailed analysis of system faults and forms of BIT results, the test sequence control method is proposed. It assists BITE failure judge and reduces error probability. Finally the validation cases prove that these approaches enhance credibility.展开更多
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(Technology and application of wind power/photovoltaic power prediction for promoting renewable energy consumption,2018YFB0904200)eponymous Complement S&T Program of State Grid Corporation of China(SGLNDKOOKJJS1800266)。
文摘To enhance the performance of the prediction intervals (PIs), a novel very short-term probabilistic prediction method for wind speed via nonlinear quantile regression (NQR) based on adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (ALASSO) and integrated criterion (IC) is proposed. The ALASSO method is studied for shrinkage of output weights and selection of variables. Furthermore, for the better performance of PIs, composite weighted linear programming (CWLP) is proposed to modify the conventional linear programming cost function of quantile regression (QR), by combining it with Bayesian information criterion (BIC) as an IC to optimize the coefficients of PIs. Then, the multiple fold cross model (MFCM) is utilized to improve the PIs performance. Multistep probabilistic prediction of 15-minute wind speed is performed based on the real wind farm data from the northeast of China. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through the performances' comparisons with conventional methods.
基金partly supported by the Fundamental Research Fund-Shenzhen Research Institute for Big Data(SRIBD)Startup Fund JCYJ-AM20190601partly supported by the NSFC grant 11831002the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence.
文摘We propose a trust-region type method for a class of nonsmooth nonconvex optimization problems where the objective function is a summation of a(probably nonconvex)smooth function and a(probably nonsmooth)convex function.The model function of our trust-region subproblem is always quadratic and the linear term of the model is generated using abstract descent directions.Therefore,the trust-region subproblems can be easily constructed as well as efficiently solved by cheap and standard methods.When the accuracy of the model function at the solution of the subproblem is not sufficient,we add a safeguard on the stepsizes for improving the accuracy.For a class of functions that can be“truncated”,an additional truncation step is defined and a stepsize modification strategy is designed.The overall scheme converges globally and we establish fast local convergence under suitable assumptions.In particular,using a connection with a smooth Riemannian trust-region method,we prove local quadratic convergence for partly smooth functions under a strict complementary condition.Preliminary numerical results on a family of Ei-optimization problems are reported and demonstrate the eficiency of our approach.
基金supported by the Ministry Level Project of China
文摘Built-in-test （BIT） is responsible for equipment fault detection, so the test data correct- ness directly influences diagnosis results. Equipment suffers all kinds of environment stresses, such as temperature, vibration, and electromagnetic stress. As embedded testing facility, BIT also suffers from these stresses and the interferences/faults are caused, so that the test course is influenced, resulting in incredible results. Therefore it is necessary to monitor test data and judge test failures. Stress monitor and BIT self-diagnosis would redound to BIT reliability, but the existing anti- jamming researches are mainly safeguard design and signal process. This paper focuses on test results monitor and BIT equipment （BITE） failure judge, and a series of improved approaches is proposed. Firstly the stress influences on components are illustrated and the effects on the diagnosis results are summarized. Secondly a composite BIT program is proposed with information integra- tion, and a stress monitor program is given. Thirdly, based on the detailed analysis of system faults and forms of BIT results, the test sequence control method is proposed. It assists BITE failure judge and reduces error probability. Finally the validation cases prove that these approaches enhance credibility.
