Semivolatile organic compounds, organochlorine pesticides and heavy metals in sediments and risk assessment in Huaihe River of China

The concentrations of semivolatile organic compounds, organochlorine pesticides and heavy metals in sediments from Jiangsu reach of Huaihe River, China, were presented. The organic compounds were extracted by acetone： n-hexane using a Soxhlet apparatus and concentrations were performed using HP6890 gas chromatography coupled by FID and ECD detector. The total contents of 8 heavy metals by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry or cold-vapor/atomic absorption spectrometry were developed. 30 semivolatile organic compounds were detected, including substituted benzenes, phenols, phthalates and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, from 0.01 to 3.01 mg/kg. 16 organochlorine pesticides were almost detected and from 0.010 to 2.339 μg/kg. Concentrations of major metals were 50 mg/kg or less, mean level of mercury was only 0.055 mg/kg. Compared to sediment quality guidelines （SQGs）, concentrations of some semivolatilc organic compounds were high enough to cause possible toxic effects to living resources. The organochlorine pesticides presented relatively low, lower than threshold effect concentrations （TECs）, harmful effects on sediment-dwelling organisms were not expected. Chromium posed probable toxic effects to the living resources, other heavy metals had no threat temporarily according to SQGs.

Analysis of Micro Organic Compound Pollution in Major City River Reaches of the Main Stem of the Changjiang River

It has become general for surface waters being polluted by micro organic compounds. In order to know the current pollution situation and the properties of micro organic compounds in the Changjiang River, a test was performed on micro organic compounds in the water, bottom material and fish bodies which were sampled from major city river reaches of the Changjiang River. Based on the test result, researchers described and analyzed the sorts, concentration level and distribution features of micro organic compounds. A comprehensive evaluation was conducted by adopting the method of MEG (Multimedia Environmental Goals). The study indicated that ① the water body of major city river reaches of the Changjiang River has been generally polluted. In the test, totally 12 types with 308 kinds of organic compounds were detected. The main pollutants were paraffins, PAHs and lipids; and ② micro organic pollutant content in fish bodies was generally higher than that in bottom material which is in turn higher than that in water; and ③ pollution is relatively severe in the river reaches of mid-to-large comprehensive industrial cities with fairly great TAS (Total Ambient Severity) of public health and ecological system.

Channel change at Toudaoguai Station and its responses to the operation of upstream reservoirs in the upper Yellow River

The application of dams built upstream will change the input conditions, including water and sediment, of downstream fluvial system, and destroy previous dynamic quasi-equilibrium reached by channel streamflow, so indispensable adjustments are necessary for downstream channel to adapt to the new water and sediment supply, leading the fluvial system to restore its previous equilibrium or reach a new equilibrium. Using about 50-year-long hydrological, sedimentary and cross-sectional data, temporal response processes of Toudaoguai cross-section located in the upper Yellow River to the operation of reservoirs built upstream are analyzed. The results show that the Toudaoguai cross-section change was influenced strongly by upstream reservoir operation and downstream channel bed armoring thereafter occurred gradually and extended to the reach below Sanhuhekou gauging station. Besides, median diameter of suspended sediment load experienced a three-stage change that is characterized by an increase at first, then a decrease and an increase again finally, which reflects the process of channel bed armoring that began at Qingtongxia reservoir and then gradually developed downstream to the reach below Sanhuhekou cross-section. Since the joint operation strategy of Longyangxia, Liujiaxia and Qingtongxia reservoirs was introduced in 1986, the three-stage change trend has become less evident than that in the time period between 1969 and 1986 when only Qingtongxia and Liujiaxia reservoirs were put into operation alone. In addition, since 1987, the extent of lateral migration and thalweg elevation change at Toudaoguai cross-section has reduced dramatically, cross-sectional profile and location tended to be stable, which is beneficial to the normal living for local people.

3D DBSCAN detection and parameter sensitivity of the 2022 Yangtze river summertime heatwave and drought

极端气候事件的精准识别是机理分析的重要前提.本研究借助无监督机器学习中经典的DBSCAN密度聚类算法,发展了在三维(经度-纬度-时间)空间内进行目标事件识别和参数敏感性分析的研究方案.在2022年长江全域高温伏秋旱事件识别中的应用表明,本次天气尺度极端热浪和季节尺度重旱事件的产生发展,空间传播模式不同.天气尺度热浪信号自6月底从北太平洋向西南方向延伸,直至8月中旬覆盖长江全域;季节重旱信号于7月中旬从孟加拉湾陆面区域向东北向延伸,直至9月中旬覆盖长江全域.同时,本研究中亦进行了相关参数敏感性的详细分析,对算法应用,结果理解亦有帮助.

The distribution of dimethylcarbazoles in oils from the Pearl River Mouth Basin, South China Sea

C2-carbazole isomers have been investigated in crude oils from the Hui-Liu Structure Ridge (HLSR) in the Pearl River Mouth Basin (PRMB), South China Sea. The NH shielded isomer, as well as the NH partially shielded isomers, was detected in high abundance and the NH exposed isomers in lower abundance. A small-enrichment trend of 1,8-dimethylcarbazole (DMC) was observed in crude oils along the western part of HLSR (WPHLSR), which may indicate little effect of migration on the C2-carbazole distributions. Two strikingly different distribution patterns of NH partially shielded isomers were observed in the reservoirs along the WPHLSR: one with a preference of 1,3- and 1,6-DMCs and the other with a preference of 1,4- and 1,5-DMCs. All of the oils occurring in the Upper reservoirs have a preference of 1,3- and 1,6-DMCs, whereas those trapped in the Lower reservoirs show a preference of 1,4- and 1,5-DMCs, which may indicate there are two petroleum migration systems in the WPHLSR.

气候变化背景下赣江流域复合高温干旱事件时空演变特征

【目的】在气候变化背景下,全球多区域复合高温干旱事件频率与强度呈现增加趋势。系统揭示赣江流域复合高温干旱事件的时空演变特征,为灾害风险防范提供参考。【方法】采用1961—2021年的日最高温度和表层土壤含水量数据,评估赣江流域热浪、农业干旱和复合高温干旱事件的时空变化趋势,对比分析复合高温干旱事件与单独极端事件的特征差异。【结果】结果表明:赣江流域农业干旱事件频次呈下降趋势(-0.027场/10 a),热浪事件及复合高温干旱事件的频次呈上升趋势(0.084场/10 a、0.013场/10 a)。与1961—2000年相比,2001—2021年赣江流域农业干旱的发生频率在北部大部分区域有所下降,南部地区大部分区域有所增加;热浪事件的发生频率在全流域均呈增加趋势;复合高温干旱的发生频率在东北部有所下降,南部显著上升。与单独热浪事件和单独农业干旱事件相比,复合高温干旱下的热浪事件历时和烈度分别增加16.87%和26.25%,农业干旱事件历时和烈度分别增加10.65%和26.86%。【结论】赣江流域南部地区复合高温干旱事件发生频率显著增加;相比于单独的极端事件,复合高温干旱事件的危险性有所增强,未来应加强该区域的复合高温干旱风险防范能力。

基于CMIP6耦合WRF的黄河上游复合干旱热浪事件演变规律

复合干旱热浪事件较传统极端气候事件破坏性更强,近年来在全球范围内发展迅速,黄河上游作为气候敏感区受其影响尤其突出,刻画其特征并分析未来可能气候条件下的演变趋势对事件防控有重要意义。本文提出了一种基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划CMIP6耦合天气预报研究模式WRF的未来气象数据动力降尺度方法。识别了黄河上游不同情景下的复合干旱热浪事件及其特征,揭示了复合事件与单一事件的区别,分析了复合干旱热浪事件的未来演变规律。结果表明:(1)历史期、SSP245和SSP585情景下复合干旱热浪事件较单一事件的温度升高3.8%、13.1%、13.5%,干旱指数降低5.8%、2.6%、2.6%,极端特征更加显著。(2)SSP245情景下复合干旱热浪事件特征呈西南高、东北低的空间分布形式,而在SSP585情景下以北部、东部区域分布最高。(3)未来各情景下区域整体复合干旱热浪事件特征呈显著上升趋势,其中SSP585的上升趋势高于SSP245。

沿江典型区域杨树大径材人工林复合经营技术研究

本文对杨树大径材培育周期内的5个典型复合经营模式生长和经济效益进行分析,选择出适宜长江沿江典型区域种植的杨树大径材复合经营模式。结果表明:参试林农复合经营模式下杨树的胸径、树高、单位面积蓄积量分别比纯林增加15.31%(YM)~20.92%(YYD)、9.52%(YM)~11.31%(YY)、45.66%(YM)~61.38%(YYD)。采用间作模式的6年生杨树复合经营总收益均大于杨树纯林,杨树间作模式的总产值为杨树纯林的2.78(YM)~4.47倍(YYD)。采用多作物间作模式总收益及总产值明显高于单作物间作模式。其中套种6年杨树-油菜-黄豆(YYD)模式累计总收益(11 905元/667m^(2))最高,杨树-小麦-黄豆(YMD)累计总收益(11 599元/667m^(2))次之。5个模式下6年生杨树木材收益由高到低依次为:YYD(7 244元/667m^(2))>YMD(7 197元/667m^(2))>YY(7 106.5元/667m^(2))>YM(6 539.6元/667m^(2))>YC(4 408.48元/667 m^(2))。杨树-油菜-黄豆(YYD)是促进大径材杨树生长、材积和经济效益最高的优选模式。此研究旨在为长江沿江典型区域杨树的大径材培育和复合经营策略提供参考。

淮河流域暖季极端高温干旱复合事件的演变特征及其与气候和植被的关系

使用淮河流域1981年至2020年的149个气象站点的气温和相对湿度数据,分析了流域暖季极端高温干旱复合事件(Compound Drought and Heat Events,CDHEs)的时空演变特征,并通过趋势分析和相关分析法探讨了CDHEs与气候和植被的关系。结果表明:(1)CDHEs的发生日数在年代际尺度上呈现明显的增加趋势,并且范围扩大,频发区逐渐向淮河流域中西部移动;(2)在年际尺度上,CDHEs随时间序列呈显著的波动上升趋势,空间分布上以西北部为中心向四周递减。连续CDHEs事件呈年际变化,最大2至4天的连续事件存在波动,2019年达到高峰,并且在流域内零散或成片出现;(3)在月际尺度上,CDHEs的发生日数在6月最多,其次是5月、7月、9月和8月。淮河流域入汛前的旱情和入汛后的旱涝急转都容易导致CDHEs发生,而且随着月际变化向南移动;(4)CDHEs对水热条件和大气环流具有特别的敏感性。在850hPa反气旋和500hPa显著高压异常的控制下,高温、低湿、高蒸发和降水少的气候背景有利于淮河地区CDHEs的形成,尤其是在淮河中西部地区。因此,CDHEs的发生与气候变化密切相关;(5)CDHEs与植被生长也存在显著关系。CDHEs与GPP呈显著的负相关,而与NDVI呈显著的正相关,显著地区的土地类型以耕地和城乡、工矿、居民用地为主。GPP和NDVI的不同步可能是因为多种因素的非线性相互作用,而不仅仅是单一因素的影响。此外,对于GPP和NDVI来说,土壤含水量至关重要。总之,本文对淮河流域CDHEs的时空分布特征进行了深入研究,并探讨了其与气候和植被的关系。研究结果可以为该地区的气象灾害防御和生态环境保护提供科学依据和参考。

Numerical simulation of turbulent flow in helically coiled open-channels with compound cross-sections

Turbulence structure in a helically coiled open channel flow is numerically simulated using three different turbulence models--the Launder and Ying model, the Naot and Rodi model, and the nonlinear k-ε Model (SY model). Simulation results were compared with observation of (i) turbulent flows in alternating point-bar type channel bends with rectangular sections, and (ii) straight open channel flows with compound cross-sections. Based on calculations of the impact of various channel curvatures on turbulence characteristics, accuracy of the three turbulence models was analyzed with observed data as a qualitative reference. It has been found out that the Launder and Ying model and the nonlinear k-ε Model are able to predict the same general trend as measured data, and the simulation of the effect of the centrifugal force on the formation of secondary currents produces a correct pattern.

京郊典型河流农用水中全氟化合物赋存特征、源解析及生态风险评估

为探究京郊典型河流农用水中全氟化合物(Perfluorinated Compounds,PFCs)污染特征及空间分布,以北京市郊区典型河流--通州区凉水河、房山区刺猬河-小清河的农用水为研究对象,共调查采集30个水体样品。采用超高效液相色谱-串联质谱分析方法对水体中PFCs的种类、浓度进行测定,并对其赋存特征及可能的来源进行分析,最终进行生态风险评估。结果表明:京郊典型河流农用水环境中PFCs种类较多且污染水平较低。通州区凉水河中检出11种PFCs,∑PFCs浓度范围为0~62.7 ng·L^(-1),最主要的PFCs为全氟丁烷羧酸(PFBA)、全氟己烷羧酸(PFHxA)、全氟辛烷羧酸(PFOA)。房山区刺猬河-小清河中21种PFCs全部被检出,∑PFCs浓度范围为0~93.1 ng·L^(-1),最主要的PFCs为全氟戊烷羧酸(PFPeA)、全氟十一烷羧酸(PFUnDA)和全氟十二烷磺酸(PFDoDs)。京郊典型河流农用水中PFCs污染的分布特征总体呈现上游高于下游的趋势,污染主要来自污水处理厂出水的排放和地表径流输入。生态风险评估表明,水体中PFCs的浓度均未达到对生态环境造成危害的水平。

中国旱涝急转事件时空变化特征

【目的】旱涝急转事件造成的社会经济和生态环境影响严重,是我国发生频繁且广泛的一种复合型事件。明确我国旱涝急转事件发生的时空变化特征,可为地区制定防灾减灾措施提供科学依据。【方法】基于1961—2021年气象观测数据,使用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散发,然后计算逐日的标准化降水蒸散指数(daily-SPEI),分流域对中国旱涝急转事件的频次、影响范围和趋势的变化特征进行分析。【结果】结果显示:(1)时间趋势上,1961—2021年中国受旱涝急转事件影响的范围以0.6%/10a的趋势增加,且平均每年有19.8%的范围发生旱涝急转事件。(2)空间分布上,旱涝急转事件主要分布在淮河流域、黄河流域、长江流域和松花江流域,事件发生频次在30次以上地区分别占流域总面积的63.1%、20.7%、15.0%、14.6%,事件频次最高达到53次。(3)中国旱涝急转事件存在明显的季节差异,主要发生在夏季事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占中国总面积的一半以上;其次是春季和秋季,事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占比均不足15%;冬季发生最少,事件发生频次在5次以下。【结论】结果表明:中国旱涝急转事件的影响范围整体呈增加趋势,中国中东部和东北部是旱涝急转事件发生频繁地区。研究结果可为旱涝急转事件的监测与应对提供科学基础。

窟野河流域水环境中芳烃类有机物的污染状况及风险评价

为了解窟野河流域水体中芳烃类污染物的分布情况及其对环境造成的风险,对流域25个水样品中芳烃类有机物进行检测分析和风险评价。结果表明,窟野河流域水体中共有15种芳烃类有机物被检出,其中,酚类化合物占比93.4%,是主要的污染物;芳烃类有机物的主要来源是沿流域分布的众多煤化工企业以及道路上机动车排放的尾气;窟野河流域水体中芳烃类有机污染物总浓度为100~5162μg/L,其中,2-4二硝基苯酚的浓度最高,平均值为1601μg/L,检出率为96%,荧蒽和乙苯的浓度最低,平均值仅3μg/L,检出率分别为100%和12%。用反距离权重法对芳烃类有机物的空间分布进行预测,发现污染物浓度沿流域往下逐渐降低,且工业区浓度高于人群聚集区。通过毒性当量法和熵值法对5种芳烃类有机物进行生态风险评价,结果显示5种芳烃类有机物均存在较高的生态风险,各点位不同有机物间的复合污染较高,应引起当地环保部门及相关企业的重视。

Simulating cross-sectional geometry of the main channel in response to changes in water and sediment in Lower Yellow River

To understand the non-equilibrium morphological adjustment of a river in response to environmental changes,it is essential to(i)accurately identify how past conditions of water and sediment have impacted current morphological adjustment of the river,and(ii)establish a corresponding simulation for non-equilibrium conditions.Based on discharge and suspended sediment concentration(SSC)as well as 82 cross-sectional data items for the Huayuankou-Lijin reach of the Lower Yellow River in the period 1965-2015,the process of adjustment of the geometry of the main channel(area,width,depth,and geomorphic coefficient),and its responses to changes in discharge and SSC for different reaches are statistically analyzed.Following this,a delayed response model(DRM)of the geometry of the main channel subjected to variations in discharge and SSC is established using a multi-step analytical model,with the discharge and SSC as the main controlling factors.The results show that the area,width,and depth of the main channel decreased initially,then increased,decreased again,and finally increased again.These features of the geometry of the channel were positively correlated with the 4-year moving average discharge and negatively with the 4-year moving average SSC.The geomorphic coefficient for the Huayuankou-Sunkou reach exhibited a trend of decrease,whereas that of the Sunkou-Lijin reach decreased initially,then increased,decreased again,and finally increased again.Except for the Huayuankou-Gaocun reach in 1965-1999,the coefficient was negatively correlated with the 4-year moving average discharge and positively with SSC.The simulated values of the morphological parameters of the main channel for all sub-reaches obtained using the DRM agreed well with the measured values.This indicates that the DRM can be used to simulate the process of response of the cross-sectional geometry of the main channel to variations in the water and sediment.The results of the model show that the adjustment of the geometry of the main channel was affected by the discharge and the SSC at present(30%)as well as for the previous 7 years(70%).The proposed model offers insights into the mechanism whereby past water and sediment influence the current morphological adjustment of the river,and provides an effective method for predicting the magnitude and trend of the geometry of the main channel under different flow conditions.

Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic conditions.However,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal heterogeneity.By integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were projected.The findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial variation.In July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,respectively.By 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by one-third.Looking towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the midstream.These findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta,China

The coastal wetlands of the Yellow River Delta(YRD)in China are crucial for their valuable resources,environmental significance,and economic contributions.However,these wetlands are also vulnerable to the dual threats of climate change and human disturbances.Despite substantial attention to the historical shifts in YRD's coastal wetlands,uncertainties remain regarding their future trajectory in the face of compound risks from climate change and anthropogenic activities.Based on a range of remote sensing data sources,this study undertakes a comprehensive investigation into the evolution of YRD's coastal wetlands between 2000 and 2020.Subsequently,the potential fate of coastal wetlands is thoroughly analyzed through the Land Use/Cover Change(LUCC)simulation using System Dynamic-Future Land Use Simulation(SD-FLUS)model and the extreme water levels projection integrated future sea-level rise,storm surge,and astronomical high tide in 2030,2050,and 2100 under scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5.Results revealed that YRD's coastal wetlands underwent a marked reduction,shrinking by 1688.72 km²from 2000 to 2020.This decline was mostly attributed to the substantial expansion in the areas of artificial wetlands(increasing by 823.78 km2),construction land(increasing by 767.71 km²),and shallow water(increasing by 274.58 km²).Looking ahead to 2030-2100,the fate of coastal wetlands appears to diverge based on different scenarios.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the area of coastal wetland is projected to experience considerable growth.In contrast,the SSP5-8.5 scenario anticipates a notable decrease in coastal wetlands.Relative to the inundated area suffered from the current extreme water levels,the study projects a decrease of 6.8%-10.6%in submerged coastal wetlands by 2030 and 9.4%-18.2%by 2050 across all scenarios.In 2100,these percentages are projected to decrease by 0.4%(SSP2-4.5)and 27.1%(SSP5-8.5),but increase by 35.7%(SSP1-2.6).Results suggest that coastal wetlands in the YRD will face a serious compound risk from climate change and intensified human activities in the future,with climate change being the dominant factor.More effcient and forward-looking measures must be implemented to prioritize the conservation and management of coastal wetland ecosystems to address the challenges,especially those posed by climate change.

致密砂岩油气藏地震正演模拟

地震正演是地震储层预测必不可少的部分。在致密砂岩储层中,正演研究相对较少,反射特征认识不充分,而目前随着勘探开发进入隐蔽化,需要加强对致密砂岩储层发育特征的认识。为提高这一认识,以H油田C8油组为例开展了致密储层的正演研究,取得了以下研究成果:1)砂厚与地震属性之间的关系受砂泥岩阻抗差大小的影响。当阻抗差较大时,振幅随厚度的变化幅度明显;当阻抗差依次减小时,振幅随砂厚变化的幅度也依次变小。2)存在着一个临界的孔隙度0.08,当孔隙度小于0.08时,砂岩对应波峰-波谷,振幅随孔隙度增大而减小;当孔隙度等于0.08时,砂泥岩阻抗相等振幅为零;当孔隙度大于0.08时,极性出现反转,砂岩对应波谷-波峰,振幅随孔隙度增大而增大。3)河道的正演结果表现为单个复合河道地震同向轴相应为顶平底凸的下切和边部收敛;两河道纵向切叠为晚期河道切割出现下切和边部收敛;河道侧向切叠为早期复合河道被晚期的河道切割,晚期复合河道形态保存完整。4)前积体的正演结果表现为明显的顶底板反射及两侧反射形成平行四边形的形状。利用该研究成果对C8油组进行了储层砂体的预测,共识别河道7条,为进一步的储层预测奠定了基础。

土壤湿度-地表气温耦合对长江中下游地区2022年8月复合型热浪事件的影响

2022年8月长江中下游地区的复合型热浪给社会经济、人类健康、农业生产和自然环境等方面均造成了严重影响.本文利用国家信息中心提供的1979—2022年6—8月逐日最高、最低气温和欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析数据集的土壤湿度等资料,定义了复合型热浪事件强度指数及其相应的土壤湿度-地表气温耦合指数,采用分段线性拟合等方法,探讨此次复合型热浪特征及土壤湿度-地表气温耦合的影响.结果表明:(1)2022年8月长江中下游地区的复合型热浪事件强度为1979年以来最强,伴随最强的土壤湿度-地表气温耦合.空间分布显示,强的热浪发生在四川东部、重庆西部、湖南等地,这些区域的土壤湿度严重偏干,蒸发受限,获得的净辐射主要用于地表向上的感热通量,使土壤湿度-地表气温出现强的正反馈过程,对热浪的维持起重要作用.(2)复合型热浪中土壤湿度-地表气温耦合影响日间和夜间热浪的物理强迫及过程不同:日间,地表净太阳短波向下辐射增强的强迫作用,促使发生强的土壤湿度-地表气温耦合,引起日间热浪.夜间,白天积累在土壤的热量,通过减小大气热量通量辐散,使夜间地表气温下降减慢,形成夜间热浪,这与以往研究单独夜间热浪的过程不同,后者认为夜间热浪主要与大气柱水汽增加引起的大气逆辐射增强有关.

气候变化背景下珠江口地区台风风暴潮和流域洪水遭遇事件的风险探究

珠江三角洲是我国开放程度最高、经济活力最强的区域之一,该地区易受超强台风风暴潮和流域特大洪水等极端事件的侵袭,其复合作用的风险也不可忽视。全球气候变化更是增添了珠江三角洲地区防洪安全的复杂性。系统分析珠江口地区复合洪水的发生条件与致灾风险,提出精准防灾减灾措施,对保障珠江三角洲地区的长治久安和可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究表明,珠江口地区的台风风暴潮和流域洪水的间隔窗口期呈逐步缩小趋势,二者叠加产生复合灾害的潜在风险呈逐步增加趋势。

复杂光照条件下基于光流的水运航道流速检测算法

实时准确的河流表面流速数据是现代化水运调度和防洪的重要依据,但传统的仪器测速法大多需要人工实地参与,危险系数高且无法满足大规模系统部署的要求。相比之下,图像测速法不需要直接接触河流,可以依据摄相机获取的连续帧得到近乎实时的速度信息。然而,光流估计作为当前主流的图像测速法,是针对刚体运动提出的,没有考虑流体本身的性质,在河流表面等相似度高的场景中泛化能力较弱。为提高基于光流估计循环全对场变换(RAFT)模型的水流流速算法估算精度,提出一种改进的光流估计测速方法。在特征提取部分增加卷积块注意力模块(CBAM),增强其对河流表面波纹和示踪粒子运动的识别能力。通过优化光流迭代更新部分的损失函数,引入能体现流体运动特征的角误差损失和旋度散度平滑损失,并且为损失函数匹配随迭代次数呈指数增长的权重因子,突出高次迭代结果对于整体结果的显著影响。为验证改进方法的有效性,使用不同场景河流数据集对其进行性能评估,结果表明,该方法在复杂光学噪声场景下的平均相对误差为11.37%,具有较好的鲁棒性,能够生成更精准的表面速度空间分布图。