In order to establish an accurate peak over threshold(POT)model for reasonable load extrapolation,a new threshold selection method based on multiple criteria decision making(MCDM)technology is proposed.The fitting tes...In order to establish an accurate peak over threshold(POT)model for reasonable load extrapolation,a new threshold selection method based on multiple criteria decision making(MCDM)technology is proposed.The fitting test criterion is taken into consideration in the method.For each candidate threshold,the fitting values of several fitting test criteria are integrated into a comprehensive evaluation value through entropy method and MCDM technology.The threshold corresponding to the minimum comprehensive evaluation value is assumed as the optimal threshold.A random simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the method and to compare them with other literature methods.Genuine load data are applied the proposed method.Both the results shown that the proposed method could be seen as an additional method that complements existing threshold selection methods.展开更多
中成药临床综合评价是当前中医药评价领域内的一个重要方向,对中医药行业的发展有着积极推动作用。中成药临床综合评价体系的建立,有助于在证据和价值基础上对同类别不同中成药、不同剂型和规格中成药,以及不同生产厂家中成药的“临床...中成药临床综合评价是当前中医药评价领域内的一个重要方向,对中医药行业的发展有着积极推动作用。中成药临床综合评价体系的建立,有助于在证据和价值基础上对同类别不同中成药、不同剂型和规格中成药,以及不同生产厂家中成药的“临床综合价值”进行综合评估。建立科学合理的中成药综合评价指标体系是保证其发挥临床价值的重要前提。然而目前,尚未见到对中成药临床综合评价公认的系统论述以及可借鉴的方法学体系。由国际研究团队研发的证据与价值:对决策的影响(the evidence and value:impact on decision-making,EVIDEM)框架被用于评估医疗干预措施的综合价值。EVIDEM框架围绕证据与价值观,基于多准则决策分析(multi-criteria decision analysis,MCDA)模型和卫生技术评估(health technology assessment,HTA),为科学决策提供了方法学工具。该文在团队目前正在开展的EVIDEM实证研究基础上,提出基于EVIDEM框架的中成药临床综合评价主要包括4个环节、7个模块、10个步骤。通过该研究的应用探索,期望为未来中医药领域开展中成药临床综合评价提供方法借鉴和实践经验。展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51375202).
文摘In order to establish an accurate peak over threshold(POT)model for reasonable load extrapolation,a new threshold selection method based on multiple criteria decision making(MCDM)technology is proposed.The fitting test criterion is taken into consideration in the method.For each candidate threshold,the fitting values of several fitting test criteria are integrated into a comprehensive evaluation value through entropy method and MCDM technology.The threshold corresponding to the minimum comprehensive evaluation value is assumed as the optimal threshold.A random simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the method and to compare them with other literature methods.Genuine load data are applied the proposed method.Both the results shown that the proposed method could be seen as an additional method that complements existing threshold selection methods.
文摘中成药临床综合评价是当前中医药评价领域内的一个重要方向,对中医药行业的发展有着积极推动作用。中成药临床综合评价体系的建立,有助于在证据和价值基础上对同类别不同中成药、不同剂型和规格中成药,以及不同生产厂家中成药的“临床综合价值”进行综合评估。建立科学合理的中成药综合评价指标体系是保证其发挥临床价值的重要前提。然而目前,尚未见到对中成药临床综合评价公认的系统论述以及可借鉴的方法学体系。由国际研究团队研发的证据与价值:对决策的影响(the evidence and value:impact on decision-making,EVIDEM)框架被用于评估医疗干预措施的综合价值。EVIDEM框架围绕证据与价值观,基于多准则决策分析(multi-criteria decision analysis,MCDA)模型和卫生技术评估(health technology assessment,HTA),为科学决策提供了方法学工具。该文在团队目前正在开展的EVIDEM实证研究基础上,提出基于EVIDEM框架的中成药临床综合评价主要包括4个环节、7个模块、10个步骤。通过该研究的应用探索,期望为未来中医药领域开展中成药临床综合评价提供方法借鉴和实践经验。