Agricultural Policy Simulation Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

[Objective] This study aimed to examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium （CGE）-based agricultural policy simulation system. [Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constructed by integrating policy simulation, CGE model and Decision Supporting System （DSS）. The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the agricultural subsides policy simulation through empirical analysis. [Result] Farmers were the main beneficiaries of increasing agricultural production subsidies, which increased farmers＇ income and improved the export of agriculture products. The prototype system could solve the problems in actual policy simulation. [Conclusion] The results lay the foundation for the quantitative study on agricultural subsidy policy in China.

Intensity Allocation Criteria of Carbon Emissions Permits and Regional Economic Development in China——Based on a 30-Province/Autonomous Region Computable General Equilibrium Model

The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and its influence on China＇s regional development are analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. Simulation results show that： industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account deepen the unbalance of regional economic development; regional intensity criteria without taking industrial properties into account exert little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emissions permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emissions permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial properties is a feasible and operable choice.

Comparision of China's volatile organic compound pollution management:a computable general equilibrium approach

The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound(VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China,arousing increasing attention to emissions control.In this context,this paper analyses the effectiveness of VOC reduction policies,namely pollution charges and environmental taxes at the national and industrial sector levels.It uses a computable general equilibrium model,which connects macroeconomic variables with VOC emissions inventory,to simulate the effects of policy scenarios(with 2007 as the reference year).This paper shows that VOC emissions are reduced by 2.2% when a pollution charge equal to the average cost of engineering reduction methods-the traditional approach to regulation in China-is applied.In order to achieve a similar reduction,an 8.9% indirect tax would have to be imposed.It concludes that an environmental tax should be the preferred method of VOC regulation due to its smaller footprint on the macroeconomy.Other policies,such as subsidies,should be used as supplements.

Impacts of Total Energy Consumption Control and Energy Quota Allocation on China′s Regional Economy Based on A 30-region Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.

An AI Embedded Object-Oriented Approach for Formulating Computable General Equilibrium

This paper proposes and illustrates an AI embedded object-oriented methodology to formulate the computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In this framework, a CGE model is viewed as a collection of objects embedded AI or namely agents in computer world, corresponding to economic agents and entities in real world, such as government, households, markets and so on. A frame representation of major objects in CGE model is used for trade and environment. Embedded Al object-oriented approach (or software agent) is used in the CGE model representation can able to narrow the gap among the semantic representation, formal CGE (mathematical) representation and computer and algorithm representation, and to improve CGE in understanding and maintenance etc. In such a system, constructing a CGE model to appear an intuitive process rather than an abstract process. This intuitive process needs more understanding of the substance of economics and the logic underlying the problem rather than mathematical notation.

Will Coal Price Fluctuations Affect Renewable Energy Substitution and Carbon Emission? A Computable General Equilibrium-Based Study of China

Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on China’s industry development costs and energy consumption structure?To investigate this problem,this paper utilized an economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium model.In this study,four aspects were analyzed:Energy supply side,proportion of renewable energy consumption,macroeconomy,and changes in CO_(2) emissions.The results of this study show that an increase of 10%–20%in coal prices contributes to a shift into using renewable energy,which leads to energy saving and emission reduction.Renewable energy and clean energy rose by 0.57%–4.47%in the energy structure,but this has a certain negative impact on the macroeconomy.The gross domestic product(GDP)fell by 0.07%–0.18%.As a result,the decline in coal prices became an obstacle to renewable energy substitution and energy conservation.In addition,we put forward policy suggestions according to the results in energy,economic,and environmental effects.

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Production in Ethiopia: Application of a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.

Papyrus, Forest Resources and Rural Livelihoods: A Village Computable General Equilibrium Analysis from Northern Zambia

Papyrus is increasingly suggested as an alternative bioenergy source to reduce the pressure on forest ecosystems. However, there are few studies on the economic viability of papyrus wetlands and the benefits for local communities. We construct a village Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to examine whether papyrus harvesting and processing has the potential to improve local livelihoods and simultaneously counteract pressure on local forest resources. We apply the CGE model to a village in northern Zambia where overexploitation of forest resources to produce energy from firewood and charcoal poses a serious problem. The analysis is based on survey data?from 105 households collected in 2015. The model results show that papyrus briquetting would be a possible?alternative biofuel and that this technology improves household income and utility through?labor?reallocations. Higher opportunity costs lead to households switching from firewood extraction and charcoal production activities to papyrus harvesting and processing to produce bioenergy. Replacing energy supplies from firewood and charcoal with papyrus briquettes results in substitution effects between forest land and wetland and thereby reduces the pressure on local forest resources. The CGE approach allows for an economy-wide ex-ante analysis at village level and can support management decisions to ensure the success of papyrus bioenergy interventions.

A General Equilibrium Model for Energy Policy Evaluation Using GTAP-E for Vietnam

In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model （CGE） using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） model （known as GTAP-E） for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam＇s economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.

Assessing the Regional Economic Ripple Effect of Flood Disasters Based on a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Considering Traffic Disruptions

With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.

基于CGE模型的能源税政策影响分析

在能源—环境—经济(3E)研究领域中,CGE模型得到了广泛的应用。本文通过一个10部门静态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型定量分析中国实施能源税对经济、能源、环境以及各生产部门的影响。模型以2002年为基准年,研究设定5个情景,包括一个基准情景和四个能源税征收情景。模型模拟分析表明,征收能源税对国民经济总量增长有轻微影响;与此同时,能源税政策有利于减少能源需求量,降低能源强度,减少煤炭在能源合成品中的份额,对能源结构的改善有一定作用,并可促进产业结构的调整,有利于减少二氧化碳和二氧化硫的排放量,改善环境质量。在实施的过程中,可以采用渐进提高税率,并在征收能源税的同时,降低所得税(用能源税收入替代其它税种的收入)以及减免行政性收费等方式,实现税制的绿化,且可避免对国民经济和居民生活产生明显冲击。

可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型与环境政策分析

CGE模型是进行环境政策分析的理想工具 ,实际上CGE模型也是唯一有可能精确评估环境政策社会成本的分析手段。本文介绍了在环境政策分析中应用CGE模型的基本思路和不同类型 ;回顾了CGE模型在环境政策分析中的应用领域及国内应用现状 ;指出今后在环境政策分析中应用的CGE模型应该更多地结合经济体的现实特征 ,其发展方向则体现在三个方面 :在分析环境政策社会成本的同时也考虑这些政策的社会效益、分析环境政策的分配效应。

基于CGE模型的所得税改革效应分析——以广东为例

阐明我国进行所得税改革的必要性,建立了用于所得税改革效应分析的静态CGE模型,并以广东省为例,就几种所得税制改革设想对广东省的宏观经济、社会影响进行了模拟分析.研究结果表明:适当降低企业所得税率并调整个人所得税负的居民间分布,有利于地区经济的增长并促进社会整体福利效应的提高.

基于CGE模型的有色金属价格变动对区域经济发展影响的实证分析

有色金属作为国民经济基础性产业,其价格波动影响着经济发展的稳定性,尤其是以有色金属产业为经济支柱的西部地区。本文运用投入产出表及相关统计数据,通过构建有色金属CGE模型,根据近年铅、铜、锌、铝、镍等五种常用有色金属价格的波动范围,拟设置了六种波动情景进行模拟,即有色金属价格波动在-40%、-25%、-10%、10%、25%、40%情景下,实证模拟价格变动对云南经济的影响。结果显示,实际GDP、居民收入、政府收入随有色金属价格上涨而降低;企业收入、要素价格随有色金属价格上涨而提高;多数部门产出因有色金属价格上涨而减少;多数部门增加值因有色金属价格上涨而提高。有色金属价格下降则呈现出相反的结果。结果表明,有色金属价格对宏观经济的影响具有非对称性,价格上涨对经济的消极影响要显著大于价格下降对经济的积极作用,具有高附加值的精深加工行业发展乏力,尤其需要大力优化升级。

CGE与GIS集成的中国城市增长情景模拟框架研究

建立机理和空间明确的城市模拟模型,对刻画我国城市未来情景、推演城市增长的环境影响、解释城市增长复杂性具有重要意义。现有的城市模拟模型偏重于对单个城市或城市区域进行模拟,大多缺乏可靠的经济学基础。通过有效集成CGE模型、GIS空间分析和格网动力学模型,采用多区域可计算一般均衡模型将分散的城市模拟模型连接成为相互作用的“城市模型体系”,提出一个经济机理和地理参考明确的、多维度、多尺度、可运行的中国城市未来模拟模型框架,阐述其假设、逻辑、主要内容与关键技术。

基于CGE和EFA的中国能源使用安全测度

全球生态环境的日益恶化和能源使用对环境产生的巨大影响使能源使用安全问题受到各国的广泛关注。鉴于经济、社会、能源和环境的复杂关系,本文在拓展可计量均衡模型(CGE)原有研究的基础上,借助生态足迹分析法(EFA)的概念,构建能源CGE模型和能源使用安全测度框架,将能源的最终需求、初始能源转换矩阵、能源生态足迹转换率和本区域的能源生态承载力联系在一起,通过对比能源生态承载力和生态足迹,分析能源使用安全状况。对中国1962年至2002年能源使用安全测度,结果显示,这40多年里,从人均和总量水平来看,能源生态承载力基本呈逐年下降趋势,而能源生态足迹呈逐年上升趋势,并且,能源人均生态承载力的下降速度快于能源人均生态足迹的上升速度,最终造成能源生态赤字的出现及不断扩大的演变规律,说明我国能源使用安全状况越来越令人担忧。要扭转这种不利的发展态势,也应该从能源使用的环境影响和环境容量两个方面入手,期望通过逐步减少能源使用的环境影响和提高环境质量,全方位加强我国的能源使用安全。

基于CGE模型的碳税政策影响研究

基于2012年社会核算矩阵(SAM),采用增加碳税模块的可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),构建了测算中国碳税政策影响的涵盖42个部门的动态递归CGE模型(其中包含4个化石能源生产部门和1个电力能源生产部门),以此来分析不同税率情境下碳税政策实施对我国国内生产总值(GDP)、能源消费和碳减排的动态影响。结果表明:征收碳税将对我国GDP造成负面影响,且随着税率的不断升高,GDP的下降率将不断增大。同时,碳税政策的实施使得高碳排放行业能源消费量明显减少,并提高了清洁能源的使用量,而总的二氧化碳减排量则随着税率的不断升高而逐渐增大。

可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型及其建模仿真、发展和应用

简单介绍了经济系统的一个仿真模型，可计算一般均衡（ＣＧＥ）模型；讨论了其应用与发展，介绍了其仿真求解技术与新的发展方向。

人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各产业的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的分析

本文构建了一个可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)以量化估算人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各部门的影响。根据中国2005年投入产出表编制了中国2005年社会核算矩阵作为CGE模型的基础数据集。论文的主要结论:除服务业、建筑业外,人民币实际汇率升值使大部分产业产出下降,升值的财富效应导致国内购买力增强,服务业、建筑业产出随之增加;升值使农业部门的农业劳动力需求减少,服务业、建筑业的劳动力需求增加,大部分非农行业的劳动力需求也都趋于减少。

人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各产业的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的分析

研究构建了一个可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)以量化估算人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各部门的影响。根据最新的中国2005年投入产出表编制了中国2005年社会核算矩阵作为CGE模型的基础数据集。研究表明:除服务业、建筑业外,人民币实际汇率升值使大部分产业产出下降,升值的财富效应导致国内购买力增强,服务业、建筑业产出随之增加;升值使农业部门的农业劳动力需求减少,服务业、建筑业的劳动力需求增加,大部分非农行业的劳动力需求也都趋于减少。