The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal f...The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.展开更多
The upper Yangtze upstream ofYichang with a drainage area of1,000,000 km^2 brings an average annualrunoff to Yichang by 450 km^3 of river water,the drastic variation and uneven distributionof which often causes severe...The upper Yangtze upstream ofYichang with a drainage area of1,000,000 km^2 brings an average annualrunoff to Yichang by 450 km^3 of river water,the drastic variation and uneven distributionof which often causes severe floods for fer-tile alluvial plains of middle and lower Yang-展开更多
文摘The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.
文摘The upper Yangtze upstream ofYichang with a drainage area of1,000,000 km^2 brings an average annualrunoff to Yichang by 450 km^3 of river water,the drastic variation and uneven distributionof which often causes severe floods for fer-tile alluvial plains of middle and lower Yang-
