Convective Initiation by Topographically Induced Convergence Forcing over the Dabie Mountains on 24 June 2010

The initiation of convective cells in the late morning of 24 June 2010 along the eastward extending ridge of the Dabie Mountains in the Anhui region, China, is studied through numerical simulations that include local data assimilation. A primary convergence line is found over the ridge of the Dabie Mountains, and along the ridge line several locally enhanced convergence centers preferentially initiate convection. Three processes responsible for creating the overall convergence pattern are identified. First, thermally-driven upslope winds induce convergence zones over the main mountain peaks along the ridge, which are shifted slightly downwind in location by the moderate low-level easterly flow found on the north side of a Mei-yu front. Second, flows around the main mountain peaks along the ridge create further convergence on the lee side of the peaks. Third, upslope winds develop along the roughly north-south oriented valleys on both sides of the ridge due to thermal and dynamic channeling effects, and create additional convergence between the peaks along the ridge. The superposition of the above convergence features creates the primary convergence line along the ridge line of the Dabie Mountains. Locally enhanced convergence centers on the primary line cause the initiation of the first convection cells along the ridge. These conclusions are supported by two sensitivity experiments in which the environmental wind （dynamic forcing） or radiative and land surface thermal forcing are removed, respectively. Overall, the thermal forcing effects are stronger than dynamic forcing given the relatively weak environmental flow.

A High-Resolution Modeling Study of the 19 June 2002 Convective Initiation Case during IHOP 2002:Localized Forcing by Horizontal Convective Rolls

The initiation processes of one of the initial convective cells near and on the east side of a dryline on 19 June 2002 during the IHOP 2002 field experiment in the central United States is analyzed in detail based on a high-resolution numerical simulation. Prominent horizontal convective rolls and associated near-surface moisture convergence bands [called roll convergence bands(RCBs) here] develop within the convective boundary layer(CBL) due to surface heating, in the hours leading to convective initiation(CI). The RCBs east of the dryline are advected toward the primary dryline convergence boundary(PDCB) by the southerly moist flow as the CBL deepens with time. Backward trajectories of air parcels forming the initial precipitating updraft of the convective cell are found to primarily originate at about 1–1.5 km above ground, within the upper portion of the shallower CBL earlier on. The representative air parcel is found to follow and stay on top of a surface RCB as the RCB moves toward the PDCB, but the RCB forcing alone is not enough to initiate convection. As this RCB gets close to the PDCB, it moves into a zone of mesoscale convergence and a deeper CBL that exhibits an upward moisture bulge associated with the PDCB. The combined upward forcing of the RCB and the mesoscale PDCB convergence quickly lifts the representative air parcel above its level of free convection to initiate convection. A conceptual model summarizing the CI processes is proposed.

Identification of Forcing Mechanisms of Convective Initiation over Mountains through High-Resolution Numerical Simulations

Convection and its ensuing severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, hail, tornado, and high wind, have significant im- pacts on our society and economy （e.g., Cao et al., 2004; Fritsch and Carbone, 2004; Verbout et al., 2006; Ashley and Black, 2008; Cao, 2008; Cao and Ma, 2009; Zhang et al., 2014）. Due to its localized and transient nature, the initiation of convection or convective initiation remains one of the least understood aspects of convection in the scientific communi- ties, and it is a significant challenge to accurately predict the exact timing and location of convective initiation （e.g., Cai et al., 2006; Wilson and Roberts, 2006; Xue and Martin, 2006; Cao and Zhang, 2016）.

A Case Study of the Initiation of Parallel Convective Lines Back-Building from the South Side of a Mei-yu Front over Complex Terrain

Parallel back-building convective lines are often observed extending to the southwest of some mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)embedded in the mei-yu front in China.The convective lines with echo training behavior can quickly develop into a stronger convective group of echoes,resulting in locally heavy rainfall within the mei-yu front rainband.The initiation mechanism of the back-building convective lines is still unclear and is studied based on high-resolution numerical simulation of a case that occurred during 27−28 June 2013.In the present case,the new convection along the convective lines was found to be forced by nonuniform interaction between the cold outflow associated with the mei-yu front MCSs and the warm southerly airflow on the south side of the mei-yu front,which both are modified by local terrain.The mei-yu front MCSs evolved from the western to the eastern side of a basin surrounded by several mesoscale mountains and induced cold outflow centered over the eastern part of the basin.The strong southwest airflow ahead of the mei-yu front passed the Nanling Mountains and impacted the cold outflow within the basin.The nonuniform interaction led to the first stage of parallel convective line formation,in which the low mountains along the boundary of the two airflows enhanced the heterogeneity of their interaction.Subsequently,the convective group quickly developed from the first stage convective lines resulted in apparent precipitation cooling that enhanced the cold outflow and made the cold outflow a sharp southward windshift.The enhanced cold outflow pushed the warm southerly airflow southward and impacted the mountains on the southeast side of the basin,where the roughly parallel mountain valleys or gaps play a controlling role in a second stage formation of parallel convective lines.

Using Satellite Data to Analyze the Initiation and Evolution of Deep Convective Clouds

In this study, two deep convective cloud cases were analyzed in detail to study their initiation and evolution. In both cases, all deep convective clouds were positioned at the rear of the cold front cloud bands and propagated backward. Satellite data showed that prior to initiation of the deep convective clouds, thermodynamic and moist conditions were favorable for their formation. In the morning, a deep convective cloud at the rear of cold front cloud band propagated backward, the outflow boundary of which created favorable conditions for initiation. An additional deep convective cloud cluster moved in from the west and interacted with the outflow boundary to develop a mesoscale convective system(MCS) with large, ellipse-shaped deep convective clouds that brought strong rainfall. The initiation and evolution of these clouds are shown clearly in satellite data and provide significant information for nowcasting and short-term forecasting.

A Modeling Study on the Mechanism of Convective Initiation of a Squall Line over Northeastern China

High-resolution numerical simulation results of a squall line initiated along a convergence zone in northeast China on 26 June 2014 were presented in this study.The simulation was performed by a convection-permitting model with coarse and fine grids of 4 and 1.33 km,respectively,and the simulation results were validated against the observation.Results showed that the simulation adequately reproduced the life cycle of the squall line,which allowed detailed investigation of the mechanism of convective initiation in this case.The synoptic condition was favorable for convective initiation and the convection was triggered in a convergence zone,where a branch of dry and cold air and a branch of moist and warm air collided.The water vapor flux divergence was inhomogeneous and some cores of water vapor convergence existed in the convergence zone.These cores were the spots where water vapor converged intensely and the air there was forced to rise,creating favorable spots where the convection was initially triggered.A series of quasi-equally spaced vortices near the surface,which themselves were the result of horizontal shear instability,were accountable for the inhomogeneity of the surface water vapor flux divergence.These vortices rotated the moist air into their north and dry air into their south,thus creating more favorable spots for convective initiation in their north.After initiation,the updraft turned the horizontal vorticity into vertical vorticity in the mid-level.The vortices near the surface collaborated with the vorticity maxima in the mid-level and enhanced the development of convection by providing water vapor.

Role of the interaction between a gust front and a mesoscale air mass boundary in convection initiation:a case study

The local convection initiation(CI)mechanisms of a convective case that occurred on5 August 2017 in Cangzhou,northern China,were studied using Doppler radar and automatic weather station observational analysis,along with Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System assimilation analysis.During the convective process,a gust front appeared ahead of two existing convective systems,respectively.In the warm and moist environment ahead of the gust fronts in the south,there was a mesoscale air mass boundary.With the process of a gust front moving southward,approaching the mesoscale air mass boundary,the convergence intensified in the area between the gust front and the mesoscale air mass boundary.Finally,the strong convergent updraft exceeded the level of free convection and triggered the new convection.

Initiation,organizational modes and environmental conditions of severe convective wind events during the warm season over North China

Based on the significant weather report,CG lightning,composite radar reflectivity,and ERA5 reanalysis data,we first studied the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of four types(only severe convective wind(SCW);SCW and hail;SCW and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR);and SCW,hail,and SDHR)of convective weather events related to SCW during the warm season(May to September)from 2011 to 2018 in North China.Second,severe convective cases producing SCW were selected to statistically analyze the initiation,decay,lifetime,and organizational characteristics of convective systems.Finally,using ERA5 reanalysis data and conventional surface observation data,preconvective soundings were constructed to explore the differences in environmental conditions for initiating convective systems between SCW and non-SCW.The results indicate that mixed-type of SCW and SDHR events occur more frequently over plains,while other types of convective weather occur more frequently over mountains.The frequency peak of SCW occurs in June,while mixed convective weather peaks in July.The initiation time of convective systems is concentrated between 1000 and 1300 BST,with a peak at 1200 BST.Over mountains,the daily peaks of ordinary and significant SCW generally occur at 1700-1800 BST and 1600-1700 BST,respectively,while over plains,the peak of ordinary SCW typically lags behind that of mountains by 1-2 hours.Additionally,SCW systems are mainly initiated over mountains,with most lifetimes lasting 7–13 hours.Nonlinear convective systems produce the most SCW events,followed by trailing-stratiform convective systems.The convective available potential energy(CAPE),downdraft convective available potential energy,and the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa can all distinguish between SCW systems and non-SCW systems occurring over plains.Compared to non-SCW convective systems,SCW convective systems over mountains are more likely to occur in environments with less precipitable water,while SCW convective systems over plains are more likely to occur in environments with higher CAPE and stronger deep-layer wind shear.

Reviewing subduction initiation and the origin of plate tectonics:What do we learn from present-day Earth?

The theory of plate tectonics came together in the 1960s,achieving wide acceptance after 1968.Since then it has been the most successful framework for investigations of Earth’s evolution.Subduction of the oceanic lithosphere,as the engine that drives plate tectonics,has played a key role in the theory.However,one of the biggest unanswered questions in Earth science is how the first subduction was initiated,and hence how plate tectonics began.The main challenge is how the strong lithosphere could break and bend if plate tectonics-related weakness and slab-pull force were both absent.In this work we review state-of-the-art subduction initiation(SI)models with a focus on their prerequisites and related driving mechanisms.We note that the plume-lithosphere-interaction and mantleconvection models do not rely on the operation of existing plate tectonics and thus may be capable of explaining the first SI.Reinvestigation of plate-driving mechanisms reveals that mantle drag may be the missing driving force for surface plates,capable of triggering initiation of the first subduction.We propose a composite driving mechanism,suggesting that plate tectonics may be driven by both subducting slabs and convection currents in the mantle.We also discuss and try to answer the following question:Why has plate tectonics been observed only on Earth?

Crack initiation of granite under uniaxial compression tests:A comparison study

In this study,a combination of acoustic emission(AE)method(AEM)and wave transmission method(WTM)is used to investigate the behaviors of AE and ultrasonic properties corresponding to initial fracturing in granitic rocks.The relationships of AE characteristics,frequency spectra,and spatial locations with crack initiation(CI)are studied.The anisotropic ultrasonic characteristics,velocity distributions in different ray paths,wave amplitudes,and spectral characters of transmitted waves are investigated.To identify CI stress,damage initiations characterized by strain-based method(SBM),AEM and WTM are compared.For granite samples,it shows that the ratio of CI stress to peak strength estimated by SBM ranges from 0.4 to 0.55,and 0.49-0.6 by WTM,which are higher than that of AEM(0.38-0.46).The CI stress identified by AEM indicates the onset of microcracking,and the combination of AEM and WTM provides an insight into the detection of rock damage initiation and anisotropy.

THE INITIAL TRACE OF SOLUTIONS FOR POROUS MEDIUM EQUATION WITH CONVECTION

In this paper author consider the following problem Let u = u(x.t) be a continuous weak solution of the equation in RN ×(O,T] for some T >O.Then author conclude: corresponding to u there is a unique nonnegative Borel measure v on RN which is the initial trace of u; there is the global inequality of Harnack type for u; the initial trace must belong to a certain growth class; consequently, by combining the results mentioned above a uniqueness conclusion is established.

Numerical Simulations of a Florida Sea Breeze and Its Interactions with Associated Convection:Effects of Geophysical Representation and Model Resolution

The Florida peninsula in the USA has a frequent occurrence of sea breeze(SB)thunderstorms.In this study,the numerical simulation of a Florida SB and its associated convective initiation(CI)is simulated using the mesoscale community Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model in one-way nested domains at different horizontal resolutions.Results are compared with observations to examine the accuracy of model-simulated SB convection and factors that influence SB CI within the simulation.It is found that the WRF model can realistically reproduce the observed SB CI.Differences are found in the timing,location,and intensity of the convective cells at different domains with various spatial resolutions.With increasing spatial resolution,the simulation improvements are manifested mainly in the timing of CI and the orientation of the convection after the sea breeze front(SBF)merger into the squall line over the peninsula.Diagnoses indicate that accurate representation of geophysical variables(e.g.,coastline and bay shape,small lakes measuring 10-30 km2),better resolved by the high resolution,play a significant role in improving the simulations.The geophysical variables,together with the high resolution,impact the location and timing of SB CI due to changes in low-level atmospheric convergence and surface sensible heating.More importantly,they enable Florida lakes(30 km2 and larger)to produce noticeable lake breezes(LBs)that collide with the SBFs to produce CI.Furthermore,they also help the model reproduce a stronger convective squall line caused by merging SBs,leading to more accurate locations of postfrontal convective systems.

A NONLINEAR TRANSFORMATION AND A BOUNDARY-INITIAL VALUE PROBLEM FOR A CLASS OF NONLINEAR CONVECTION-DIFFUSION EQUATIONS

With the aid of a nonlinear transformation, a class of nonlinear convection-diffusion PDE in one space dimension is converted into a linear one, the unique solution of a nonlinear boundary-initial value problem for the nonlinear PDE can be exactly expressed by the nonlinear transformation, and several illustrative examples are given.

INITIATION MECHANISMS FOR A SUCCESSIVE MJO EVENT AND A PRIMARY MJO EVENT DURING BOREAL WINTER OF 2000-2001

Observed outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) and ERA-Interim reanalysis data were analyzed to reveal the initiation processes associated with a successive and a primary MJO event during 2000-2001. It was found that the initiation of the successive event was caused by anomalous ascending motion induced by low-level horizontal temperature advection. The anomalous ascending motion, together with horizontal moisture advection, moistened lower troposphere and led to an unstable stratification and triggered convection. The initiation of the primary MJO event, on the other hand, was caused by the accumulation of anomalous moisture associated with three low-frequency modes, a convectively coupled Kelvin wave(CCKW), an westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave(ER) and a weak planetary-scale MJO mode. It is the merging of the low-level specific humidity anomalies of the three modes that led to the rapid setup of large-scale convectively unstable stratification and favored the development of the eastward-propagating planetary-scale MJO mode.

Characterization of Okra Convective Drying, Influence of Maturity

An experimental study for the drying kinetics of whole okra was carried out. In the study, different ages were considered by taking into account influence of okra maturity on its convective drying. The 2D moisture evolution inside the product and its maturity were evaluated by fitting experimental data versus drying time. The water effective diffusion coefficient of okra at different maturity states was gotten by the experimental model using Fick’s second law. A parametric study was carried out in the ranging of okra age from 2 to 7 days at 60℃, both fruits gathered on the same plant to avoid divergences due to okra varieties that can induce difference on physical structure and the chemical composition. It was found from the experimental results that okra maturity has important influence on its behaviour during convective drying. At 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 days old, the drying effective time was respectively 780, 1000, 1155, 850 and 750 min. Effective diffusivity of the okra in this order of age was 1.38 × 10-10, 6.09 × 10-11, 1.23 × 10-11, 8.98 × 10-11, and 1.05 × 10-10 m2/s in the present study, while the average initial moisture content was respectively 12.27, 9.00, 7.53, 5.97 and 4.92 Kgw/Kgdm.

The Initial Trace of Solution for Porous Medium Equation with Convection

In this paper we consider the following problem ui=△u^m+bi(u^n)x Letu=u(x,t)be a continuous weak solution of the equation in R^N×(0,T)for someT>0.Then we conclude;Corresponding to u there is a unique nonnegative Borel measure v on R^Nwhich is the initial trace of u;there is the global inequality of Harnack type for u;the initial tracev must belong to a certain growth class;consequently,by combining the results mentioned above a u-niqueness conclusion is established.

雅安地区一次暖区暴雨过程的对流触发机制分析

本文利用多源高分辨率资料,对2021年8月4日四川雅安地区大暴雨过程中对流发展最为旺盛的第二阶段的对流触发机制进行了分析,结论如下:(1)对流层中层的中尺度低压系统为过程第二阶段的对流触发和发展提供了有利的动力和热力条件。(2)冷池出流作用下形成的地面辐合线可直接触发对流,而下坡风及地形绕流作用下形成的地面辐合线难以直接触发对流,需边界层中上层存在“二次抬升机制”配合才容易触发对流,“二次抬升机制”包括环境大气辐合抬升、高海拔地形强迫抬升、移动的残余弱对流系统前侧上升气流耦合抬升机制。(3)在地形机械强迫作用下峨眉山东北侧形成的正涡度区有利于对流加强发展,强对流系统激发的低空急流北移与龙门山南下的冷池出流相遇后触发“高架对流”,该对流触发机制与峨眉山及附近的高海拔山地有密切关系,可能为青藏高原东坡地带特有的一种对流触发机制。(4)不同触发机制作用下,升力形成与对流启动的时差和距离有所不同,其中下坡风及地形绕流作用下的时差更长,距离更远。

青藏高原夏季FY-4A卫星对流初生产品的分类识别

为了解并提升风云四号卫星A星(FY-4A)对流初生(Convective Initiation,CI)产品对青藏高原夏季降水的指示意义,基于FY-4ACI产品及全球降水测量计划(GlobalPrecipitationMeasurement,GPM)降水数据,根据青藏高原地区2020—2022年6—8月FY-4ACI产品识别出的CI样本与1h后实际观测降水的对应关系,将CI样本划分为无降水CI、弱降水CI和强降水CI三类,并结合大气对流参数与地理位置等信息,利用决策树和随机森林两种机器学习算法建立CI类别识别模型并检验,结果表明:青藏高原地区对流初生后1h内的降水情况存在明显区域差异,其西北部无降水比例高而东南部降水的比例高;利用抬升指数、云水总量、垂直风切变、中低层湿度、云底高度、零度层高度等大气对流参数信息,能较好区分青藏高原CI出现后是否有降水及降水的强弱;随机森林识别模型结果对于CI类别的识别效果优于决策树识别模型结果,利用随机森林识别模型可以更有效地对青藏高原夏季CI按照降水强度的分类进行识别。

一次复杂地形下边界层抬升型暖区暴雨对流触发条件和可预报性的数值研究

长江中下游地区的暖区暴雨过程易受复杂下垫面强迫的影响,具有较大的预报不确定性,尤其是其中的对流触发过程。为探讨此类过程的触发条件及揭示其可预报性受限制程度,本文针对2020年6月23日一次复杂地形包裹下的长江中下游暖区暴雨展开高分辨率的数值模拟和对流尺度集合模拟,通过Lagrange气块后向轨迹分析、去除地形和关闭热效应的敏感性试验以及集合敏感性分析等方法对此次过程的对流触发阶段展开分析。结果表明,此次过程被抬升气块的主要源地为1.5 km以下的边界层,仙霞岭和杉岭在正午时分因热力作用而驱动的出谷风是引发局地辐合抬升的动力源,高低层散度、湿位涡的垂直配置以及偶极型位涡异常对此次对流触发过程具有较好的指示意义。此外,该过程对前期近地面2 m高度处温度和模式底层视热源具有较高的敏感性,该结果证实下垫面强迫的精确刻画对于提升暖区暴雨的预报效果至关重要。逐步减小初始场误差的初值敏感性试验进一步表明,此次暖区对流过程的可预报性显著低于北边的锋面过程,表现为锋面对流的偏差总能量能随初始误差的缩小持续性降低,而暖区对流的偏差总能量曲线则仍能增长至与原水平相近,呈现出非线性辐合收缩特征。因此,对于天气尺度强迫显著的锋面对流,或可优先考虑通过加强资料同化能力等手段降低初始场误差来减小预报误差;但对于复杂地形下的暖区暴雨对流触发过程,则需要更加强调通过集合预报来捕捉其不确定性。

苏沪城市群区域出梅后期对流初生客观识别方法及其时空分布特征

研发了一套利用天气雷达观测资料对流初生(CI)客观识别算法。该算法定义“对流块”为雷达反射率因子达到35 dBz的连续强回波区域,如果某一对流块的前30 min、周边一定范围内没有任何对流块,且它维持超过20 min,则该对流块被识别为CI。将这套CI客观识别算法应用于苏-沪城市群区域出梅后期(从梅雨季结束到8月底,且排除热带气旋影响)CI识别,构建了该地区2019—2022年出梅后期高时、空分辨率(10 min、1 km)CI数据库,通过个例和统计研究,分析了CI识别结果对算法中两个参数的敏感性。判断对流回波是否为首次出现,当区域半径(R)设为10 km时,对流块最小面积设为4 km^(2)(Test1)或2 km^(2)(Test2)对CI识别结果的影响不大,两个试验都能识别出CI连续发生和相邻发生的复杂情况,Test1能够识别出Test2的83%CI事件,二者识别出的CI日数、逐日CI数、CI高频区分布、CI频次日变化等统计特征基本一致;当R设为30 km、对流块最小面积为4 km^(2)(Test3)时,仅能识别出Test1的36%CI事件,其识别的CI数目不足,导致CI发生频次的空间分布和日变化的分析结果明显不同于Test1和Test2。识别结果表明,分析区域内有CI发生频次较高的3个子区域:沿长江的“上海—苏锡常—南京”城市带、从南通北部到黄海近海、分析区域西南侧的天目山系部分区域,CI频次日变化呈现午间(11—14时,北京时)主峰特征。