Atmospheric winds from observations and medium-range weather forecast model predictions can be physically decomposed as daily climate wind,planetary-scale anomalous wind,and synoptic-scale anomalous wind.The 850 hPa s...Atmospheric winds from observations and medium-range weather forecast model predictions can be physically decomposed as daily climate wind,planetary-scale anomalous wind,and synoptic-scale anomalous wind.The 850 hPa synoptic-scale anomalous winds were extracted from the numerical model outputs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) and the NCEP Global Forecast System(GFS).The results showed that most rain bands in eastern China in 2010 were located along the anomalous convergence lines.To predict the major rain bands by these convergence lines in 2010,the accuracies of the ECMWF products were 100%,85%,and 15% for leading 3,6,and 9 days,while the GFS products showed 53%,15%,and 6% accuracies,respectively.In comparison of the regional heavy rainfalls between observation and the ECMWF model prediction,the useful leading information was about 3.1 days for direct model rain prediction and 6.7 days for convergence systems predicted by ECMWF model.展开更多
基金supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306013)
文摘Atmospheric winds from observations and medium-range weather forecast model predictions can be physically decomposed as daily climate wind,planetary-scale anomalous wind,and synoptic-scale anomalous wind.The 850 hPa synoptic-scale anomalous winds were extracted from the numerical model outputs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) and the NCEP Global Forecast System(GFS).The results showed that most rain bands in eastern China in 2010 were located along the anomalous convergence lines.To predict the major rain bands by these convergence lines in 2010,the accuracies of the ECMWF products were 100%,85%,and 15% for leading 3,6,and 9 days,while the GFS products showed 53%,15%,and 6% accuracies,respectively.In comparison of the regional heavy rainfalls between observation and the ECMWF model prediction,the useful leading information was about 3.1 days for direct model rain prediction and 6.7 days for convergence systems predicted by ECMWF model.
