Assessment of rural sustainable development and analysis and prediction of obstacles and coupled coordinated development:A case study of Zaozhuang City

In China,the Innovation Demonstration Zone for the National Sustainable Development Agenda is a key initiative for executing the United Nations(UN)2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.The Zone also plays critical roles in addressing the developmental bottlenecks that China faces and sharing Chinese insights into global sustainable development efforts.On July 15,2022,the State Council endorsed the Zone’s establishment in Zaozhuang City,Shandong Province,where it focuses on innovation-led sustainable development in rural areas.Research into the levels,impediments,interdependencies,and evolutionary trends of rural sustainable development is crucial.Therefore,this research aimed to assist in comprehensively assessing developmental challenges and facilitating the harmonious advancement of social,economic,and environmental aspects in rural areas.In pursuit of the three fundamental dimensions of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),namely development’s drivers,quality,and equity,this study was grounded in China’s national Rural Revitalization Strategy and the demands of sustainable development strategies.It also aligns with the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the associated SDG indicators.Focusing on four key areas,namely production elements,natural elements,social elements,and rural governance,this study developed an evaluation index system for assessing the level of rural sustainable development.It employed a range of analytical models,including the game theory-based combination empowerment method,barrier degree model,coupling degree model,coupling coordination degree model,and gray prediction GM(1,1)model,to analyze the status and evolving trends of rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang City from 2015 to 2022.The key findings were as follows:①Relative to the baseline year 2015,the sustainable development level in Zaozhuang’s rural areas has shifted toward an improved state overall.②The primary barrier to achieving rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang is the city’s rural governance system.③While the components of rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang are in the early stages of both basic and moderate coordination,an overall enhancement has occurred in their integrative coordination.④Between 2023 and 2025,the level of integrative coordination in Zaozhuang is expected to rise steadily.However,reaching a state of advanced coordination will require additional time for development.

Chinese Rural labors Transfer under the Coordination of Urban-Rural Development

The strategic significance of Chinese rural labor transfer is expounded.It is conducive to solving the three agricultural problems concerning agriculture,rural areas,and farmers and coordinating the urban and rural development;promoting the rational distribution of human resources and realizing the growth of national economy;restructuring industrial structure and improving Chinese market competitiveness.The problems in the transfer of Chinese rural labors are analyzed,which include the low overall cultural level of rural labors;imperfect organization developmental;weak management mechanism and imperfect supporting measures.The rational paths for Chinese rural labor transfer are pointed out,including break the urban and rural dual structure and realize the free move of rural labors;strengthen the organization construction to provide high-quality socialized service for rural labor transfer;perfect security system to foster favorable social environment for rural labor transfer;establish scientific management mechanism to realize the sustainable rural labor transfer.

Estimation and Dynamic Judgment of Urban-rural Coordinated Development:A Case Study of Chongqing City

Using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)and GCA(Grey Comprehensive Analysis),this article measures the degree of urban-rural coordinated development of Chongqing City,and establishes GARCH model to analyze its dynamic feature.The results show that urban-rural coordination degree of Chongqing City tended to decline year by year in the period 1985-2010 on the whole;after it became a municipality directly under the Central Government,the average annual rate of decline reached 1.78%.Further,from GARCH modeling analysis,there is no"clustering"in urban-rural coordination degree of Chongqing City,and the impact of fluctuation state in the past on the future will gradually intensify.There is no "leverage effect"in urban-rural coordination degree of Chongqing City,and if the government does not exert"external force",urban-rural coordination degree will decline year by year.But in the long run,urban-rural coordination degree will gradually converge to the equilibrium level.Based on this,we propose to strengthen institutional innovation and help propel coordinated urban and rural development,in terms of employment,social security,finance,land management and use.

Coupling and Long-term Change Characteristics of Forest Carbon Sink and Forestry Economic Development in China

[Objectives]To analyze the changes in of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,provide reference for relevant management decisions,ecological governance and resource and environment management,and promote the development of green low-carbon economy in China.[Methods]Based on the data of six forest resource inventories from 1989 to 2018 and related studies,the comprehensive evaluation model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,the coupling degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,and the coupling coordination degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development were adopted.The coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development from 1992 to 2018 was analyzed.Stepwise regression and ARIMA model were used to analyze the influencing factors and lagging characteristics of forest carbon sink.The coupling degree between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China from 2019 to 2030 was predicted by autoregression and ADF test.The coupling between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China and its long-term change characteristics were also discussed in this study.[Results](i)The investment of ecological construction and protection,the actual investment of forestry key ecological projects,GDP and the import of forest products had a significant impact on forest resources carbon stock.The total output value of forestry industry,the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects and the export volume of forest products had a significant impact on the forest carbon sink,and the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects has the greatest impact on the two.(ii)The impact of actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects had a lag of 2 years on the forest resources carbon stock and a lag of 1 year on the forest carbon sink.When investing in forest carbon sink,it is necessary to make a good plan in advance,and do a good job in forest resources management and time optimization.(iii)From 1992 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy in China was gradually increasing.Although there were some fluctuations in the middle time,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock and the long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.24%annually,and the degree of coupling coordination increased from"serious imbalance"in 1992 to"high-quality coordination"in 2018.From 1993 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.63%annually,slightly faster than the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock and long-term development of forestry economy.The coordination level also rose from level 2 in 1993 to level 10 in 2018.(iv)The prediction shows that the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy would increase from 2019 to 2030.The coupling coordination degree(D)values of both were close to 1,the coordination level was also 10 for a long time,and the degree of coupling coordination was also maintained at the"high-quality coordination"level for a long time.[Conclusions]Forest has multiple benefits of society,economy and ecology,and forest carbon sink is only a benefit output.The long-term coupling analysis of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development is a key point to multiple benefit analysis.The analysis shows that the spillover effect and co-evolution effect of forest carbon sink in China are significant.From 1992 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development was gradually rising.The prediction analysis also indicate that the coupling coordination degree between the forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy will remain at the level of"high-quality coordination"for a long time from 2019 to 2030.Therefore,improving the level of forest management and maintaining the current trend of increasing forest resources are the key to achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China.

Spatial-temporal Evolution of the Urban-rural Coordination Relationship in Northeast China in 1990-2018

To comprehensively understand the law of urban-rural relationship and propose scientific measures of urban-rural coordinated development in Northeast China,this study uses the coupling coordination degree model and geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns and the corresponding driving mechanisms of its urban-rural coordination since 1990.The results are as follows.First,the urban-rural coupling coordination degree in Northeast China was very low and improved slowly,but its stages of evolution is a good interpretation of the strategic arrangements of China's urbanization.Second,the urban-rural coupling coordination degree in Northeast China had spatial differences and was characterized by central polarization,converging on urban agglomeration,which was high in the south and low in the north.Moreover,the gap between the north and south weakened.Third,the spatial-temporal evolution of the urban-rural coordination relationship in Northeast China was influenced by pulling from the central cities,pushing from rural transformation,and government regulations.The influence intensity of the three mechanisms was weak,but the pulling from the central cities was stronger than that of the other two mechanisms.Furthermore,the spatial difference between the three mechanisms determines the spatial pattern and its evolution of the urban-rural coordination relationship in Northeast China.Fourth,to promote the development of urban-rural coordination in Northeast China,it is essential to advance urban-rural economic correlation,enhance the government^role in regulating and guiding,and adopt different policies for each region in Northeast China.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of the coupling coordination of social security and economic development in China during 2002–2018

Clarifying the relationship between social security and economic development is helpful to realize the sustainable social security system and the stable function of sustainable economic development.In this paper,the entropy method,coupling coordination degree,standard deviation ellipse model,and spatial autocorrelation were used to study the spatial-temporal characteristics of coupling coordination of social security and economic development in China from 2002 to 2018.The results indicate that the relationship between social security and economic development in China has been gradually strengthened in the process of mutual adaptation and common development.The benign interaction between the two was unstable,though the coupling coordination degree gradually transitioned to the primary coupling coordination type.Besides,from a spatial perspective,first,the coupling coordination degree of social security and economic development in China contracted in the east-west and north-south directions,and the coupling coordination clustered in the central region in this period;second,the coupling coordination degree generally presented a positive spatial autocorrelation,and regions with similar coupling coordination degrees were in a state of agglomeration;finally,the hot spots clumped together to form a continuous area in the eastern coastal area while the cold spots expanded toward the northwest and northeast.Furthermore,the random distribution areas exhibited a trend of contraction.

Coupling and coordination of provincial new urbanization and high-quality agricultural development in China, 2004-2018

The construction of a new type of urbanization is a necessary path for the development of modern cities,and a powerful support for coordinating the balanced development of urban and rural areas and promoting high-quality agricultural development.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018,the article constructs a new urbanization and agricultural high-quality development evaluation system;then using the coupling coordination degree model and the spatial correlation analysis method,the paper empirically tests the coupling coordination of the two systems degree and its spatial relevance.The results of the study show that the average level of coupling and coordination between new urbanization and high-quality agricultural development in the period under study is at a barely coordinated level,with the highest level being moderately coordinated.There are significant inter-regional differences,with a higher level of coupling and coordination in the eastern regions and more room for improvement in the central and western regions.At this stage,the trend of"club convergence"is remarkable,with highhigh agglomeration and low-low agglomeration coexisting,and the polarization is serious.Therefore,comprehensively promoting the rural revitalization strategy,adhering to the integrated development of urban and rural areas,and enhancing inter-regional collaborative governance are powerful measures to promote the joint progress of new urbanization and high-quality agricultural development.

Interactive Effect and Spatial Characteristics of Agricultural Development Level and Transport Superiority Degree in Main Grain-producing Areas of the Central Jilin Province,China

To investigate the spatial synergy between agricultural development level and transport superiority degree in grain-producing areas of the central Jilin Province and the driving mechanism between them,22 counties in the central Jilin Province were used as the research units to calculate agricultural development level and transport superiority degree using the entropy weighting method,weighted travel time and raster cost distance.The spatial econometric model was used to analyze the mechanism of the mutual influence between the two.The main conclusions are as follows.1)Agricultural development level around Changchun,the provincial capital city,and in the areas of Changchun-Jilin and Changchun-Gongzhuling is high,whereas the development level of the counties in the southwest is low.2)Transport superiority degree of each county has improved,the overall connectivity of the road networks has been optimized,and the level of transportation accessibility has shown the development trend of‘centralization’,exhibiting the characteristics of proximity diffusion.3)Locally,there is spatial heterogeneity in the mutual driving effects of the two,with six main patterns.4)The theoretical conditions of von Thunen’s agricultural location have changed under the conditions of market economy due to the improvement of the transport networks,the new model of agricultural development,and the changes of the market system.

Spatial pattern of urban-rural integration in China and the impact of geography

Urban-rural integration (URI) is a global challenge that is highly related to inequalities, poverty, economic growth, and other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Existing research has evaluated the extent of URI and explored its influencing factors, but urban-rural linkages are seldom incorporated in evaluation systems, and geographical factors are rarely recognized as the influencing factors. We construct a URI framework including regional economy, rural development, urban-rural linkage, and urban-rural gap. Based on a dataset consisting of 1,669 counties in China in 2020, we reveal the spatial pattern of URI and find a high correlation between the spatial pattern of URI and the relief degree of land surface (RDLS). Using structural equation modeling, we discover that topography has direct ( − 0.18, p < 0.001) and indirect ( − 0.17, p < 0.001) effects on URI. The indirect negative effects are mediated through the infrastructure, and the combination of localized advantages and modern technical conditions could mitigate the negative impact of topography. Finally, we identify 742 counties as lagging regions in URI, which can be clustered into eight types. Our findings could facilitate policy designing for those countries striving for integrated and sustainable development of urban and rural areas.

A STUDY ON THE FORECAST AND REGULATION OF COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY IN GUANGZHOU

This article introduces the concepts of coordinated development of economy and environment and formulas of coordinated degree. Results obtained are that the coordinated degree in 1992 is over 0.87.The variation tendencies on coordinated development of urb

Level of coordinated development in economy and environment

This article chose natural resource model, social resource model and synthetic model as coordinated development models, and proposed an index of coordination degree to measure the level of coordinated development in regional population-resource economy environment(PREE) system. With this index, the authors also studied a city in Liaoning Province, China,and inquired into its coordination level of the regional PREE system, and pointed out its way to realize coordinated development.

Coordinated Development of Population, Economy and Environment System and Diagnosis of Its Obstacle Factors in Nanjing

Promoting the coordinated development of regional population,economy and environment is beneficial to the realization of sustainable development.Based on the construction of evaluation index system of coordinated development of systems,the entropy weight-TOPSIS method and coupling coordination model,the coordinated development degree of population,economy and environment system in Nanjing was measured,and the temporal variation characteristics of each subsystem and their coordinated development degree form 1997 to 2016 were analyzed.The results showed that the development of population,economy system and environment system in Nanjing was generally in a continuous upward trend.Among them,the economy system developed fastest.The coordinated development degree of population,economy system and environment system in Nanjing was constantly increasing but still at a low level;the degree was only in the primary coordination phase,and its type was environment lagging.The economy subsystem and environment subsystem were important factors restricting the development of population,economy and environment in Nanjing,and the main obstacle factor was the production of industrial solid waste.The results above can provide a scientific basis for promoting the coordinated development of population,economy and environment system in Nanjing and achieving regional sustainable development.

Evaluation and countermeasures for coordinated development in the active export-oriented region: a case study on Zhejiang, China

Taking a typical active export-oriented region Zhejiang as an example, this paper tries to evaluate its Coordinated Development Degree （CDD） form 1997, focusing on the characteristics of its export-oriented econom〉 and regional environment. The results show that Zhejiang ＇s CDD has kept increasing steadily after its slight drop in 1998. Finally, four measurements are proposed to promote sustainable development, including increasing and equalizing region＇s environmental investment, changing pollution-intensive export structure to avoid restricting the whole industrial structure, restricting simple spatial translocation of high-material consumption, high-energy consumption and high-pollution industries, etc.

Appraisal of typical rural development models during rapid urbanization in the eastern coastal region of China

The sustainability of regional rural development depends on the integrated status and the coordination between rural resources-environment conditions and rural socioeco- nomic development. In this paper a diagnostic indicator system is proposed to appraise four representative rural development models such as Mentougou model, Taicang model, Yueqing model and Qionghai model in the eastern coastal region of China from the integrated perspective of population, resources, environment, and development. In conclusion, the formation and evolution of these diverse rural deveJopment models are the direct response to the very different characteristics in the environment, market demand, and regional culture. These models are common in that their sustainability depends on the scientific guidance of the regional development functional positioning, strong intra-regional interactions, and self-adaptability to the external conditions.

Non-coordination in China′s Urbanization: Assessment and Affecting Factors

Urbanization is a comprehensive concept, a trinity process that population urbanization, economic urbanization and space urbanization, is based on the interactions and mutual influences among the in which, people are the central and leading players in this process, while economic activities serve as the driving force and space is the carrier-the physical or material setting as well as the product. So the coordination among these processes is crucial for a country or region＇s sustainable development. China is experiencing rapid growth of cities and a surge in urban population, with the basic national condition of many people and little land, which calls for a systematic study of the issue of coordinated urbanization from theoretical, methodological and practical perspectives. Based on the concept of urbanization and non-coordination of urbanization, this article built a quantitative method to identify and evaluate the urbanization and non-coordination of urbanization, and made an empirical analysis in China between 2000 and 2008. The results show that the non-coordination overall level of China＇s urbanization declined during the study period, because population urbanization, economic urbanization, and space urbanization exhibited different trajectories of change. This study also reveals that performance assessment system, household registration system, and urban land expropriation system, etc., are the main affecting factors. At the end, we put forward some suggestions to achieve sustainable development of China＇s urbanization from the aspects of improving the local government＇s obiective function, imolementing the urban plalming svstem, enforcing public particination asnects and so on.

AN OVERVIEW ON THE URBAN-RURAL INTERACTION IN THE PAST 50 YEARS IN CHINA

China is a country with a long history of agricultural development,the tr adition of bureaucratic administra-tion and economic management system s for the social development.In its t ransition from traditional society to modern soci-ety during the past 50years,the rela tions between rural areas and urban a reas have been kept abnormal if considered from the point of view of the modernized co untries.Today,China still has its more than 70percent of population,bu t limited capital,lower technology and underdeveloped culture,in the rural areas.This unbalance forms not only the o bstacles to China’s modernization of social development,but also the barriers to th e society,economy and environment sustainable devel-opment.This paper focuses on the dis cussion about the coordinate develo pment of the relations between rural and urban in the past 50years,and the authors hold that only has the abnormal relation between the two areas been corrected,could China’s future development of natio nal economy be successful.

Assessment of Sustainable Development System in Suihua City, China

Sustainable development is a complex and systemic issue. It is essential to study it by the component analysis method from the view of system science. The urban developmental sustainability is one of focuses that people has paid more attention to, however, little common understanding how to measure and evaluate the sustainability has been gotten. In this paper, a framework is designed to evaluate the developmental sustainability of Suihua City, Heilongiiang Province in China from the aspects of economy, society, population, resources and environment. We adopt the Principal Components Analysis （PCA） to decrease dimensions and simplify the original indexes into 12 indexes. Also, the hierarchy and comprehensive multiple-criterion evaluative methods are employed to assess the sustainable development system in Suihua City. Then, the weights of indexes are attained by Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method. Furthermore, urban comprehensive development level, developmental sustainability, coordinate degree are calculated and analyzed. By analyzing, we know the fluctuation of development level of subsystem, especially resources and environment subsystem, is acute. The comprehensive development level of sustainable development system in Suihua has been on the rise since 1999. That results from the effect of traditional economic development mode with high energy-consumed being decreased in the city after 1999. At the same time, it is obvious that there was an instability of development level in Suihua City during 1990-2002, the status＇trend was more harmonious in 1999-2002. with a turn in 1998, and the development could be sustainable,

An integrated approach to evaluating the coupling coordination degree between low-carbon development and air quality in Chinese cities

Collaborative governance between ecological environment and climate change is a novel signature in China's policy agenda. However, such coordination remains understudied, especially at the local level. Using the principal component analysis, entropy evaluation methods, and the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM), we evaluated the level of coordination between carbon and air quality mitigation from 34 low-carbon pilot cities in China. We also illustrated the mechanism and policy formation that leads to different coupling patterns at the local level using three case studies. We found that most pilot cities perform a medium level of coupling coordination between low carbon development and air quality. The result reveals that most low-carbon pilot cities score relatively well in low-carbon development. Further, there is a significant cleavage in air quality between cities in the North and those in the South, indicating pilot cities in the South coordinate better than those in the North. In particular, pilot programs in the Southwest and Southeast coastal region perform well in collaborative governance, while the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei region is rated poorly because of the gap between air quality and low carbon development. Also, we found that the same low-carbon policy might have heterogeneous effects on different air pollutants and across different regions. The local government should adopt low-carbon development policies that address local level specific environmental and economic conditions to maximize their air pollution mitigation benefits.

Green Development for Supporting Sustainability of Northeast China:Performance Quantification,Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Implications

Green development is the cognition of geography to human-nature nexus under the background of the new era.As China is facing various eco-environment problems,green development has become a key approach towards ecological progress,and it is ultimately an explicit means to respond to support sustainable development in China.Quantifying green development performance is essential to track efforts towards sustainability and guide policymakers.However,applying the balanced property of’Economy-Ecology-Society’of green development to its performance assessment is rarely discussed.Here we elaborated the connotation of green development and developed a quantification model with coupling coordination degree to assess green development performance of the largest old industrial base of China,Northeast China.We found that the green development performance has been improved from a score of 0.443 in 2003 to 0.530 in 2019 but the disparities of green development performance were enlarging over time,especially for the cities in Heilongjiang.A positive spatial autocorrelation phenomenon of green development performance was confirmed,and Low-Low clusters in the northeastern Heilongjiang and High-High clusters in the central-eastern Liaoning were discovered.This study suggests the need to track the spatio-temporal dynamics of green development performance to provide references for achieving sustainable development goals in northeast China and other regions.

Evaluation of harmonious development for economy-environment system in coastal cities: a case study of Tianjin Municipality

With the aim of the harmonious development of economy-environment system in coastal cities in China. an index ,system used to evaluate the economy-environment system is built up in this paper, which includes four aspects： economy, environment, resources, and ocean industry. Based on the analysis on present condition and future trends of economic development in Tianjin and the quantification of various evaluation indices, the aathor applies integrated index valuation model to valuate the harmonious development af economy-environment of Tianjin. The results show that the coordinated degree of economy-environment would drop down in the future, from 0.95（superior level of harmonious development） in 2000 to 0.59（inferior level of harmonious development） in 2015. under the circumstance of the current economic development mode. The level of comprehensive development of Tianjin also presents to descend. Based on the analyzing of status and future trends of environment-economy coordinated development, the paper puts forward the countermeasures such as industry, structure adjustment, increasing the level of environmental protection investment, strengthening the enforcement of en vironmental policies to improve the coordinated development of environment-economy in Tianjin municipality.