Evaluation and simulation analysis of China's copper security evolution trajectory

Copper metal is one important raw material of national economy, and its security is tightly linked with industrialization process. A comprehensive security evaluation index system, including three first class indicators, nine second class indicators and fourteen third class indicators, was constructed based on the pressure-state-response （PSR） model. And efficacy coeff^cient method was adopted in dimensionless treatment and entropy method was used to obtain the weight. Then, the data of China＇s copper from 1992 to 2011 were studied and collected. By processing these data, a comprehensive safety index of China＇s copper was got. The results showed that the comprehensive safety index of China＇s copper rose from its low point. The safety pressure state of China＇s copper was improved. The safety state of China＇s copper continued to be tight. The response state continued to rise. The overall situation of China＇s copper safety was improving, but still not optimistic.

An Analysis of Contemporary Copper Recycling in China

Copper consumption increased very quickly in China in recent years,which could not be met by inland copper industry.In order to achieve a sustainable development of copper industry,an analysis of copper recycling in China was necessary.For the life cycle of copper products a copper-flow diagram with time factor was worked out and the contemporary copper recycling in China was analyzed,from which the following data were obtained.The average life cycle of copper products was 30 years.From 1998 to 2002,the use ratio of copper scraps in copper production,the use ratio of copper scraps in copper manufacture,the materials self-support ratio in copper production,and the materials self-support ratio in copper manufacture were 26.50%,15.49%,48.05% and 59.41%,respectively.The materials self-support ratios in copper production and manufacture declined year by year in recent years on the whole,and the latter dropped more quickly.The average index of copper ore and copper scrap from 1998 to 2002 were 0.8475 t/t and 0.0736 t/t,respectively;and copper resource efficiency was 1.1855 t/t.Some efforts should be paid to reduce copper ores consumption and promote copper scraps regeneration.Copper scraps were mostly imported from foreign countries because of shortage in recent years in China.Here the reasons related to copper scraps deficiency were also demonstrated.But we can forecast:when copper production was in a slow rise or in a steady state in China,the deficiency of copper scraps may be mitigated;when copper production was in a steady state for a very long time,copper scraps may become relatively abundant.According to the status of copper industry in China,the raw materials of copper production and manufacture have to depend on oversea markets heavily in recent years,and at the same time,the copper scraps using proportion and efficiency in copper industry should be improved.