The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an ...The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.展开更多
本文利用Web of Science数据库，构建出数学、电化学、信息计量学和传播学4个领域的高频共关键词网络。用于反映领域核心知识。此类网络以关键词为节点，当两个关键词用于同一论文中时就形成节点之间的连接。核心／边缘分析和网络分析...本文利用Web of Science数据库，构建出数学、电化学、信息计量学和传播学4个领域的高频共关键词网络。用于反映领域核心知识。此类网络以关键词为节点，当两个关键词用于同一论文中时就形成节点之间的连接。核心／边缘分析和网络分析参数表明核心关键词数量增长速度低于关键词总量增速。依据核心关键词表达核心知识概念的逻辑，推论特定知识领域中稳定的核心概念及其共现网络反映了该领域相对稳定的核心知识及其结构。展开更多
文摘The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.
文摘本文利用Web of Science数据库，构建出数学、电化学、信息计量学和传播学4个领域的高频共关键词网络。用于反映领域核心知识。此类网络以关键词为节点，当两个关键词用于同一论文中时就形成节点之间的连接。核心／边缘分析和网络分析参数表明核心关键词数量增长速度低于关键词总量增速。依据核心关键词表达核心知识概念的逻辑，推论特定知识领域中稳定的核心概念及其共现网络反映了该领域相对稳定的核心知识及其结构。
