Analysis of Negative Correlation Learning

This paper describes negative correlation learning for designing neural network ensembles. Negative correlation learning has been firstly analysed in terms of minimising mutual information on a regression task. By minimising the mutual information between variables extracted by two neural networks, they are forced to convey different information a-bout some features of their input. Based on the decision boundaries and correct response sets, negative correlation learning has been further studied on two pattern classification problems. The purpose of examining the decision boundaries and the correct response sets is not only to illustrate the learning behavior of negative correlation learning, but also to cast light on how to design more effective neural network ensembles. The experimental results showed the decision boundary of the trained neural network ensemble by negative correlation learning is almost as good as the optimum decision boundary.

Consideration of the Local Correlation of Learning Behaviors to Predict Dropouts from MOOCs

Recently, Massive Open Online Courses(MOOCs) have become a major online learning methodology for millions of people worldwide. However, the dropout rates from several current MOOCs are high. Usually, dropout prediction aims to predict whether a learner will exhibit learning behaviors during several consecutive days in the future. Therefore, the information related to the learning behaviors of a learner in several consecutive days should be considered. After in-depth analysis of the learning behavior patterns of the MOOC learners, this study reports that learners often exhibit similar learning behaviors on several consecutive days, i.e., the learning status of a learner for the subsequent day is likely to be similar to that for the previous day. Based on this characteristic of MOOC learning,this study proposes a new simple feature matrix for keeping information related to the local correlation of learning behaviors and a new Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) model for predicting the dropout. Extensive experimental validations illustrate that the local correlation of learning behaviors should not be neglected. The proposed CNN model considers this characteristic and improves the dropout prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the proposed model can be used to predict dropout temporally and early when sufficient data are collected.

A Heterogeneous Ensemble of Extreme Learning Machines with Correntropy and Negative Correlation

The Extreme Learning Machine（ELM） is an effective learning algorithm for a Single-Layer Feedforward Network（SLFN）. It performs well in managing some problems due to its fast learning speed. However, in practical applications, its performance might be affected by the noise in the training data. To tackle the noise issue, we propose a novel heterogeneous ensemble of ELMs in this article. Specifically, the correntropy is used to achieve insensitive performance to outliers, while implementing Negative Correlation Learning（NCL） to enhance diversity among the ensemble. The proposed Heterogeneous Ensemble of ELMs（HE2 LM） for classification has different ELM algorithms including the Regularized ELM（RELM）, the Kernel ELM（KELM）, and the L2-norm-optimized ELM（ELML2）. The ensemble is constructed by training a randomly selected ELM classifier on a subset of the training data selected through random resampling. Then, the class label of unseen data is predicted using a maximum weighted sum approach. After splitting the training data into subsets, the proposed HE2 LM is tested through classification and regression tasks on real-world benchmark datasets and synthetic datasets. Hence, the simulation results show that compared with other algorithms, our proposed method can achieve higher prediction accuracy, better generalization, and less sensitivity to outliers.

Measuring air traffic complexity based on small samples

Air traffic complexity is an objective metric for evaluating the operational condition of the airspace. It has several applications, such as airspace design and traffic flow management.Therefore, identifying a reliable method to accurately measure traffic complexity is important. Considering that many factors correlate with traffic complexity in complicated nonlinear ways,researchers have proposed several complexity evaluation methods based on machine learning models which were trained with large samples. However, the high cost of sample collection usually results in limited training set. In this paper, an ensemble learning model is proposed for measuring air traffic complexity within a sector based on small samples. To exploit the classification information within each factor, multiple diverse factor subsets（FSSs） are generated under guidance from factor noise and independence analysis. Then, a base complexity evaluator is built corresponding to each FSS. The final complexity evaluation result is obtained by integrating all results from the base evaluators. Experimental studies using real-world air traffic operation data demonstrate the advantages of our model for small-sample-based traffic complexity evaluation over other stateof-the-art methods.