Assessing the Variability of Extreme Weather Events and Its Influence on Marine Accidents along the Northern Coast of Tanzania

The marine accidents are among the main components of the Zanzibar Disaster Management Policy (2011) and the Zanzibar Blue Economy Policy (2020). These policies aimed to institute legal frame works and procedures for reducing both the frequency of marine accidents and their associated fatalities. These fatalities include deaths, permanent disabilities and loss of properties which may result into increased poverty levels as per the sustainable development goal one (SDG1) which stipulates on ending the poverty in all its forms everywhere. Thus, in the way to support these Government efforts, the influence of climate and weather on marine accidents along Zanzibar and Pemba Channels was investigated. The study used the 10 years (2013-2022) records of daily rainfall and hourly wind speed acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) (for the observation stations of Zanzibar, Pemba, Dares Salaam and Tanga), and the significant wave heights data, which was freely downloaded from Globally Forecasting System (GFS-World model of 13 km resolution). The marine accident records were collected from TASAC and Zanzibar Maritime Authority (ZMA), and the anecdotal information was collected from heads of quay and boat captains in different areas of Zanzibar. The Mann Kendal test, was used to determine the slopes and trends direction of used weather parameters, while the Pearson correlations analysis and t-tests were used to understand the significance of the underlying relationship between the weather and marine accidents. The paired t-test was used to evaluate the extent to which weather parameters affect the marine accidents. Results revealed that the variability of extreme weather events (rainfall, ocean waves and wind speed) was seen to be among the key factors for most of the recorded marine accidents. For instance, in Pemba high rainfall showed an increasing trend of extreme rainfall events, while Zanzibar has shown a decreasing trend of these events. As for extreme wind events, results show that Dar es Salaam and Tanga had an increasing trend, while Zanzibar and Pemba had shown a decreasing trend. As for the monthly variability of frequencies of extreme rainfall events, March to May (MAM) season was shown to have the highest frequencies over all stations with the peaks at Zanzibar and Pemba. On the other hand, high frequency of extreme wind speed was observed from May to September with peaks in June to July, and the highest strength was observed during 09:00 to 15:00 GMT. Moreover, results revealed an increasing trend of marine accidents caused by bad weather except during November. Also, results showed that bad weather conditions contributed to 48 (32%) of all 150 recorded accidents. Further results revealed significant correlation between the extreme wind and marine accidents, with the highest strong correlation of r = 0.71 (at p ≤ 0.007) and r = 0.75 (at p ≤ 0.009) at Tanga and Pemba, indicating the occurrence of more marine accidents at the Pemba channel. Indeed, strong correlation of r = 0.6 between extreme rainfall events and marine accidents was shown in Pemba, while the correlations between extremely significant wave heights and marine accidents were r = 0.41 (at p ≤ 0.006) and r = 0.34 (p ≤ 0.0006) for Pemba and Zanzibar Channel, respectively. In conclusion, the study has shown high influence between marine accidents and bad weather events with more impacts in Pemba and Zanzibar. Thus, the study calls for more work to be undertaken to raise the awareness on marine accidents as a way to alleviate the poverty and enhance the sustainable blue economy.

Spatiotemporal variability of rain-on-snow events in the arid region of Northwest China

Rain-on-snow(ROS)events involve rainfall on snow surfaces,and the occurrence of ROS events can exacerbate water scarcity and ecosystem vulnerability in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC).In this study,using daily snow depth data and daily meteorological data from 68 meteorological stations provided by the China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Information Centre,we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of ROS events in the ARNC from 1978 to 2015 and examined the factors affecting these events and possible changes of future ROS events in the ARNC.The results showed that ROS events in the ARNC mainly occurred from October to May of the following year and were largely distributed in the Qilian Mountains,Tianshan Mountains,Ili River Valley,Tacheng Prefecture,and Altay Prefecture,with the Ili River Valley,Tacheng City,and Altay Mountains exhibiting the most occurrences.Based on the intensity of ROS events,the areas with the highest risk of flooding resulting from ROS events in the ARNC were the Tianshan Mountains,Ili River Valley,Tacheng City,and Altay Mountains.The number and intensity of ROS events in the ARNC largely increased from 1978 to 2015,mainly influenced by air temperature and the number of rainfall days.However,due to the snowpack abundance in areas experiencing frequent ROS events in the ARNC,snowpack changes exerted slight impact on ROS events,which is a temporary phenomenon.Furthermore,elevation imposed lesser impact on ROS events in the ARNC than other factors.In the ARNC,the start time of rainfall and the end time of snowpack gradually advanced from the spring of the current year to the winter of the previous year,while the end time of rainfall and the start time of snowpack gradually delayed from autumn to winter.This may lead to more ROS events in winter in the future.These results could provide a sound basis for managing water resources and mitigating related disasters caused by ROS events in the ARNC.

Relationship between number of passing events and operating parameters in mixed bicycle traffic

This paper investigates the passing events between electric bicycles and conventional bicycles and explores the relationships between passing events and traffic parameters in bicycle facilities.Three exclusive bicycle paths in Nanjing, China,were observed with cameras.Then,the field data including vehicle number,velocity characteristics and passing event features were analyzed in detail.Data analysis and fitting reveal that the speed difference has little impact on the passing event number,as does the bicycle ratio.The Gaussian function can better describe the relationship between the passing event number and bicycle volume （density）.The valid use level of bicycle path width influences the inflexion of the passing events-density fitting curve.The conclusions can be applied for estimating the passing events in mixed bicycle flows and for choosing a suitable width of separate bicycle path.

Deformation correlations,stress field switches and evolution of an orogenic intersection:The Pan-African Kaoko-Damara orogenic junction,Namibia

Age calibrated deformation histories established by detailed mapping and dating of key magmatic time markers are correlated across all tectono-metamorphic provinces in the Damara Orogenic System.Correlations across structural belts result in an internally consistent deformation framework with evidence of stress field rotations with similar timing,and switches between different deformation events.Horizontal principle compressive stress rotated clockwise ~180°in total during Kaoko Belt evolution,and^135° during Damara Belt evolution.At most stages,stress field variation is progressive and can be attributed to events within the Damara Orogenic System,caused by changes in relative trajectories of the interacting Rio De La Plata,Congo,and Kalahari Cratons.Kaokoan orogenesis occurred earliest and evolved from collision and obduction at ~590 Ma,involving E-W directed shortening,progressing through different transpressional states with ~45° rotation of the stress field to strike-slip shear under NW-SE shortening at ~550-530 Ma.Damaran orogenesis evolved from collision at ~555-550 Ma with NW-SE directed shortening in common with the Kaoko Belt,and subsequently evolved through ~90°rotation of the stress field to NE-SW shortening at ~512-508 Ma.Both Kaoko and Damara orogenic fronts were operating at the same time,with all three cratons being coaxially convergent during the 550-530 Ma period;Rio De La Plata directed SE against the Congo Craton margin,and both together over-riding the Kalahari Craton margin also towards the SE.Progressive stress field rotation was punctuated by rapid and significant switches at ~530-525 Ma,~508 Ma and ~505 Ma.These three events included:(1)Culmination of main phase orogenesis in the Damara Belt,coinciding with maximum burial and peak metamorphism at 530-525 Ma.This occurred at the same time as termination of transpression and initiation of transtensional reactivation of shear zones in the Kaoko Belt.Principle compressive stress switched from NW-SE to NNW-SSE shortening in both Kaoko and Damara Belts at this time.This marks the start of Congo-Kalahari stress field overwhelming the waning Rio De La Plata-Congo stress field,and from this time forward contraction across the Damara Belt generated the stress field governing subsequent low-strain events in the Kaoko Belt.(2)A sudden switch to E-W directed shortening at ~508 Ma is interpreted as a far-field effect imposed on the Damara Orogenic System,most plausibly from arc obduction along the orogenic margin of Gondwana(Ross-Delamerian Orogen).(3)This imposed stress field established a N-S extension direction exploited by decompression melts,switch to vertical shortening,and triggered gravitational collapse and extension of the thermally weakened hot orogen core at ~505 Ma,producing an extensional metamorphic core complex across the Central Zone.

Dust Events in the Western Parts of Iran and the Relationship with Drought Expansion over the Dust-Source Areas in Iraq and Syria

The most famous deserts exist in subtropical regions which is the direct outcome of insufficient precipitation and high temperatures. The Middle East deserts are subjected often to dust, which reduces horizontal visibility to 5 km, and sometimes even to less than 100 m. The severe and prolong drought recently afflicting the west Asia region has been suggested to be instrumental in producing an increased output of dust into the atmosphere from the region. Regarding the increasing of dust events over the west of Iran with the external origin in the recent decade (from 2000 to present), so the main dust-source areas over Iraq and Syria have been detected using the dust-source map of the southwest of Asia, satellite images and soil type maps. We considered the relationship between the increasing of dust events in the western of Iran and drought expansion over the main dust-production areas during the recent decade. Dust frequency data series, and drought variables which include the VHI (vegetation health index), precipitation and temperature data series in long-term and monthly scales have been monitored and compared. And then we used the correlation analysis that indicated the significant proximity between the dust events and droughts/dryness in a yearly scale and also during the warm season (May to Aug). Meantime the derived results from the T-student test for the aforementioned data series confirm the fact that the droughts are parallel to the increasing of dust events from 1996 to 2011 (especially in the recent decade). We found that the recent droughts in the external dust source areas had the remarkable potential to increase the dust events in the west of Iran.

Racial disparities in immune-related adverse events of immune checkpoint inhibitors and association with survival based on clinical and biochemical responses

BACKGROUND Immune checkpoint inhibitors(ICPi)cause various immune-related adverse events(irAE)with thyroid dysfunction as a commonly reported abnormality.There is increasing evidence showing positive association with development of irAE and survival.However,prior trials with ICPi had underrepresentation of minorities with<5%African Americans.AIM To evaluate the association between development of irAE and survival outcomes among a racially diverse patient population.METHODS Data on patients with stage IV solid malignancies treated with programmed cell death-protein 1/programmed death ligand 1 blockers between January 2013 and December 2018 across MedStar Georgetown Cancer Institute facilities were retrospectively reviewed.Patients treated with cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 inhibitors were excluded.Progression free survival(PFS)and overall survival(OS)were primary endpoints and were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods and Wilcoxon rank sum test for comparison.RESULTS Out of 293 patients who met eligibility criteria,91 pts(31%)had any grade irAE;most common AE were endocrine(40.7%)specifically TSH elevation,dermatological(23.1%)and rheumatologic(18.7%).Proportion of irAE was significantly higher in Caucasians vs African Americans(60.4%vs 30.8%),in patients with low programmed death ligand 1,lower LDH,older age,and those who had more treatment cycles with ICPi.Rate of progression was lower in patients with irAE(30.8%vs 46.0%,P=0.0140).Median PFS(5.8 vs 3.0 mo,P=0.0204)and OS(17.1 vs 7.2 mo,P<0.0001)were higher with irAE.Statistically significant difference in OS(17.1 vs 8.6 mo,P=0.0002)but not in PFS(5.8 vs 3.3 mo,P=0.0545)was noted with endocrine irAE.No differences in survival were observed among other commonly reported irAE.Differences in survival among subgroups of patients with irAE are described.CONCLUSION Development of irAE positively correlated with improved PFS and OS as reported in previous studies.To our knowledge,this is the first study observing differences in OS favoring endocrine AE and Caucasian race.These factors may be potential surrogate markers of prognosis pending replication of these results in large-scale studies.

Construction of Network Fault Simulation Platform and Event Samples Acquisition Techniques for Event Correlation

Event correlation is one key technique in network fault management. For the event sample acquisition problem in event correlation, a novel approach is proposed to collect the samples by constructing network simulation platform. The platform designed can set kinds of network faults according to user's demand and generate a lot of network fault events, which will benefit the research on efficient event correlation techniques.

Stratigraphical Time——Correlation and Mass Extinction Event Near Permian——Triassic Boundary in South China

Shaw's method used to correlate 40 sections across the Permo-Triassic boundary in South China is applied in the paper. Two steps are adopted to get an Integral Composite Section (ICS) by synthesizing these data : First , South China is divided into five areas and composite section developed for each area . Then the second step . the Changxing composite section is regarded as a composite standard (CSRS) while the ICS is produced by matching the CSRS with composite sections of the other areas. Three biozones in the Changxingian and two biozones in the Griesbachian can be discerned on the basis of computing Z values in the ICS. These biozones are marked by the Z values which quantitatively represent their time ranges ; therefore , they may increase accuracy of stratigraphic time correlation . The mass extinction at the end of the Permian is an abrupt event that is supported by the relative rate of extinction near the P/T boundary . About 90% of invertebrate species died out by the end of the Permian . The duration of the mass extinction is rather short ,approximately 0.018Ma .

Late Carboniferous-Early Permian Volcanic Event Deposits and Stratigraphic Correlation in Shandong Province and Its Adjacent Regions

Deposits of 10 volcanic events of 6 stages have been discovered by the authors after detailed field and lab studies of the Benxi and Taiyuan Formations in Shandong Province and its adjacent regions. They show certain temporal-spatial distribution characteristics. Volcanic fragments were probably derived from two different volcanic sources north and south of the North China Platform, while the magma of the two volcanic sources was probably derived from the lower crust. A new stratigraphic correlation scheme is put forward for the Benxi and Taiyuan Formations in this region on the basis of previous biostratigraphic work with the regionally widespread volcanic event layers as the marker bed for the isochronous stratigraphic correlation on a super-regional scale and in conjunction with the maximum transgressive event layers.

A pulse of the Earth: A 27.5-Myr underlying cycle in coordinated geological events over the last 260 Myr

We performed spectral analyses on the ages of 89 well-dated major geological events of the last 260 Myr from the recent geologic literature. These events include times of marine and non-marine extinctions,major ocean-anoxic events, continental flood-basalt eruptions, sea-level fluctuations, global pulses of intraplate magmatism, and times of changes in seafloor-spreading rates and plate reorganizations. The aggregate of all 89 events shows ten clusters in the last 260 Myr, spaced at an average interval of ~ 26.9 Myr, and Fourier analysis of the data yields a spectral peak at 27.5 Myr at the ≥96% confidence level. A shorter period of ~ 8.9 Myr may also be significant in modulating the timing of geologic events.Our results suggest that global geologic events are generally correlated, and seem to come in pulses with an underlying ~ 27.5-Myr cycle. These cyclic pulses of tectonics and climate change may be the result of geophysical processes related to the dynamics of plate tectonics and mantle plumes, or might alternatively be paced by astronomical cycles associated with the Earth’s motions in the Solar System and the Galaxy.

Stratigraphic Correlation of Middle TriassicSequences among Different Paleogeographic Sedimentary Facies in South China

Affected by the Indosinian movement, the sediments in the main part of South China, Yangtze platform, started to transform from marine to continental during the Middle Triassic. In the meantime, a noticeable paleogeographic and sedimentary facies differentiation occurred in the marginal regions of the platforms and produced completely different lithologic and paleontologic sequences in various paleogeographic gradients and sedimentary facies areas, which brought about the difficulties for the stratigraphic correlation based on the traditional stratigraphies. This paper proposes to use some characteristic environmental events as the markers of the stratigraphic correlation across various paleogeographic sedimentary facies, considering that some distinctive regional environmental events should have affected at the same time on the entire basin or the connected sedimentary regions and produced some closely related sedimentary records in the stratigraphic sequences though the affected intensity and recorded pattern might be different among the regions. The change of violent relative sea level (generally water depth) and the alteration of tectonic activity summarized from the dynamic mechanism of sedimentation are the best markers of environmental events for stratigraphic correlation. Based on the analysis and recognition of some significant environmental events at the typical stratigraphic sequences from various paleogeographic sedimentary facies and combined with the consideration of the variations in expressed form and strength of the events among different paleogeographic gradients and sedimentary facies, the stratigraphic sequences from different sedimentary facies can be easily correlated directly. Furthermore, the evolutionary history of the whole sedimentary basin can be clearly established.

Changshanian Maximum Flooding Event in China and Its Global Correlation

Various orders of condensed sections are recognized in the Cambrian of North China Carbonate Platform. Study of comparative sedimentology proves that CS4-CS5 in the Changshanian age is the maximum sea flooding sediments in the Cambrian, regardless of the distribution, thickness, internal structure of the condensed section series and K2O abundance. It is a two-layered composite condensed section series, characterized by the enrichment of such elements as K, P, Mn, Ti, Co, V, Cr, Cu, Zr, Ni, Li, Th, La, Ce, Nd, Dy, Y, Sc and Be. The Changshanian maximum flooding event can be correlated on a global scale, and the corresponding sedimentary records are discovered in 26 intercontinental sections in N. Europe, N. America, and Tarim and the Yangtze Platform of China. Through detailed sedimentological research, meter-scale cycle analysis and Fischer plots, it is concluded that the Changshanian maximum flooding was a composite effect of the second-order eustacy superimposed by the third-and fourth-order eustacy, which lasted for 1.2-3 Ma. An intercontinental model of the Changshanian maximum flooding is proposed at the end of this paper.

Volcanic Event Layers——A Marker Bed of Correlation of Coal Measures

Upper Carboniferous-Lower Permian volcanic event deposits from two cross sections in Nanpiao, Liaoning Province, and the Daqing Mountains, Inner Mongolia, were examined by systematic rock and mineral identification, differential thermal analysis, X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and trace element and rare earth element quantitative analysis. According to the results, twelve sequences of volcanic event deposits have been distinguished from bottom to top, including 34–39 volcanic event layers. As these layers each have their own distinctive petrological, mineralogical and geochemical characteristics and were derived from the same source, they provide new evidence for further ascertaining the distribution characteristics of volcanic event deposits on the northern margin of the North China plate and carrying out the stratigraphic correlation using volcanic event layers as marker beds.

基于多模态神经网络的微地震事件检测

针对微地震有效信号时序特征存在的局限导致微地震事件识别准确率不高的问题,提出了一种基于多模态学习的神经网络微地震事件检测方法。首先,利用道集数据的相关性以目标道为轴对称制作多道时域模态,对目标道进行时频分析得到S域模态特征;然后,联合时域模态和S域模态设计微地震事件检测神经网络,综合多模态的特征进行训练学习,提高微地震事件识别的精度;最后,为验证方法的有效性,对合成微地震信号进行低信噪比数据分析、小幅值数据分析以及实际油井微地震监测信号事件分析。结果表明,该方法可以有效检测低信噪比及微弱的微地震事件;与支持向量机、卷积神经网络、基于监督机器学习方法的对比实验结果表明该方法具有更高的抗噪性与准确率。

当代中国民族叙事的演变及重塑

中华人民共和国成立后,在面对和应对复杂且影响突出的民族事象的过程中,一套完整的民族叙事逐渐建立起来,并定格于当代中国历史之中。新中国成立后的相当长时间里,民族叙事围绕少数民族进行;中华民族伟大复兴被确立为国家发展目标后,中华民族在民族叙事中的地位日渐突出,一个以中华民族为中心的叙事在多种因素推动下逐步构建起来。如此,一种具有70多年演进历史的民族叙事,既是关于民族事象的阐释体系,也是今天了解和把握民族认知和对应方式的重要对象。今天,在国家发展的形势和任务发生根本变化之际,根据形势的变化思考民族叙事的重塑问题,结合对民族叙事历史经验的反思,塑造一个将中华民族与国内各个民族相结合的复合型叙事,从而对当代中国的民族事象进行全面的阐释,形成一个完整的认知体系就势在必行。

残余胆固醇与进展为主要不良心血管事件的非罪犯病变易损斑块的相关性研究

背景 残余胆固醇(RC)被认为是动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病的重要危险因素,而冠状动脉非罪犯病变(NCCLs)进展也是影响冠心病患者预后的重要因素,但是残余胆固醇与进展为主要不良心血管事件(MACE)的NCCLs易损斑块的关系尚不明确。目的 探讨RC对发生MACE的NCCLs易损斑块的预测价值及长期预后的相关性。方法 选取2015年2月—2022年2月于新疆医科大学第一附属医院心脏中心住院的488例冠心病患者为研究对象,通过电子病历系统收集患者基线资料,行冠状动脉造影及光学相干断层扫描OCT。入组患者在出院1、3、6和12个月接受预定随访。采用Spearman秩相关检验探究RC与NCCLs中薄纤维帽粥样硬化斑块(TCFA)斑块特征的相关性。采用多因素Logistic回归分析探究NCCLs中TCFA发生MACE的影响因素。绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)并计算ROC曲线下面积(AUC),探究RC对NCCLs中TCFA发生MACE的预测价值。结果 共纳入488例冠心病患者,根据NCCLs是否发生MACE将患者分为发生MACE组(n=38)和未发生MACE组(n=450)。通过OCT识别NCCLs的斑块特征,共分析了749个NCCLs斑块,304个NCCLs斑块最小管腔面积(MLA)<3.5 mm^(2)。随访期间38例(7.8%)患者共发生了41例次NCCLs斑块引起的MACE事件,18例(3.7%)患者发生了支架内再狭窄,15例(3.1%)发生了不确定因素的死亡。发生MACE组患者高血压、糖尿病、总胆固醇(TC)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)、RC、糖化血红蛋白(Hb A1c)、TCFA、MLA<3.5 mm^(2)比例高于未发生MACE组(P<0.05)。105例患者检查出TCFA,其中22例发生MACE(发生MACE的TCFA组),83例未发生MACE(未发生MACE的TCFA组)。发生MACE的TCFA组糖尿病比例与RC高于未发生MACE的TCFA组(P<0.05)。Spearman秩相关分析结果示,RC与最薄纤维帽厚度、MLA呈负相关(r_(s)=-0.665、-0.771,P<0.05),与最大脂质弧度、巨噬细胞浸润呈正相关(r_(s)=0.806、0.481,P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示糖尿病(OR=3.410,95%CI=1.165~9.988,P=0.025)、高RC水平(OR=5.879,95%CI=1.436~24.073,P=0.014)是NCCLs中TCFA发生MACE的危险因素。绘制RC预测NCCLs中TCFA发生MACE的ROC曲线,结果显示AUC为0.695(95%CI=0.571~0.819,P=0.005),最佳截断值为0.606 mmol/L,灵敏度、特异度分别为0.818、0.518。结论 RC水平升高可能是冠心病患者中NCCLs易损斑块发生MACE的危险因素,对NCCLs中TCFA发生MACE有一定的预测价值。

Major geologic events of the Cauvery Basin,India and their correlation with global signaturese——A review

The present review is aimed at correlating major geologic events of the Cauvery Basin with analogous global episodes. The Cauvery Basin came into existence due to Gondwana break up during Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous by taphrogenic rift process. The first marine transgression close to Aptian/Albian boundary at the western margin of the basin terminates the syn-rift tectonic phase, which is also precise in adjoining Krishna-Godavari （KG） Basin. Two regional tectonic episodes are well documented in the basin which have global significance viz. （1） A major basinal uplift during late Turonian caused by Marion hot mantle plume resulted in widespread subaqueous volcanism in the southern part of the Cauvery Basin. This uplift also ted to relative sea level （RSL） fall of about 100 m in Cauvery and KG Basins and an unconformity of a magnitude of 2.3 Ma. The RSL fatt closely correlates with global sea level faU. This volcanic episode also resulted in Madagascar detachment from India. （2） The reunion hot mantle plume that ted to Deccan volcanism in central India resulted in E-SE tilt of the Cauvery Basin during upper Maastrichtian （CFI-CF3 zones）. This tilt caused a sea level fall of about 80 m and lateral withdrawal of sea by about 50 km developing a major erosional unconformity ranging in magnitude of -1.8-30 My. The magnitude of RSL correlates wetl with global sea level fall. This sea level fall caused widespread development of canyon features in the Cauvery Basin resulting in differential subaqueous erosion. The globally significant ocean anoxic events viz. OAE-Ib, OAE-1d, OAE-2 and OAE-3 are fairly discernible in the Cauvery Basin. The new isotopic palaeotemperature data suggests that southern India and Madagascar were located apparently in middle latitudes within the tropical-subtropical climatic zone during Atbian and early Maastrichtian. The magnitude of hiatus across K-Pg boundary varying from 0 to 30 Ma is estimated based on ptanktic foraminifera for subsurface sections. The magnetostratigraphy of outcrop sediments with rich fossil evidences reveals that magnetic polarity reversals consist of 13 mag- netozones in the Late Cretaceous sedimentary strata.

老年冠心病患者血清脂联素、生长素释放肽水平与血小板聚集率及主要不良心脏事件相关性分析

目的:探讨老年冠心病(CHD)患者血清脂联素(APN)、生长素释放肽(Ghrelin)水平与血小板聚集率(PAG)及主要心脏不良事件(MACE)之间的相关性。方法:选择83例老年CHD患者为病例组,另收集同期72例健康体检者作为对照组。入院后收集所有受试者一般资料,并检测其空腹血糖、血脂等生化指标。酶联免疫吸附法检测血清APN、Ghrelin水平。采用血小板聚集仪比浊法测定PAG,分析其与血清APN、Ghrelin水平之间的相关性。出院后随访12周,记录患者MACE发生情况,分析血清APN、Ghrelin水平与MACE之间的相关性。结果:CHD组与对照组总胆固醇(TC)、甘油三酯(TG)、高密度脂蛋白(HDL)、低密度脂蛋白(LDL)、血尿酸(UA)、左心室舒张末期内径(LVEDD)及左心室射血分数(LVEF)等水平比较,差异有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。与对照组比较,CHD组APN与Ghrelin水平明显降低(均P<0.05)。与对照组比较,CHD组PAG显著增加(均P<0.05)。Pearson相关性分析显示,CHD患者血清APN、Ghrelin水平与PAG呈明显负相关(r=-0.792,-0.578,均P<0.05)。83例CHD患者有26例发生MACE,与未发生MACE患者比较,两组HDL、LVEDD、LVEF、APN及Ghrelin水平比较差异有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析显示,HDL、LVEF、APN、Ghrelin是MACE发生的保护因素(均P<0.05)。结论:老年CHD患者血清APN、Ghrelin水平显著降低,且与血小板聚集率及预后有着密切关系,低水平APN、Ghrelin可一定程度上反映CHD患者MACE的发生风险。

高水平摔跤运动员关键技战术指标特征研究

采用录像分析法、数理统计法对2019年世界摔跤锦标赛、2020东京奥运会和2022年世界摔跤锦标赛冠军运动员的关键技战术指标进行统计和分析,揭示冠军运动员关键技战术指标对运动成绩的影响程度,归纳关键技战术指标的特征,为摔跤运动训练实践提供参考。结果表明:(1)双肩获胜(VT)次数与运动成绩似乎无关(r=0.134,p=0.183>0.05),技术优势获胜(ST)次数(r=0.368,p<0.01)和防守效率(r=0.412,p<0.01)与运动成绩呈显著正相关,进攻效率(r=-0.326,p=0.001<0.01)和技术全面性(r=-0.552,p<0.01)与运动成绩呈显著负相关。(2)男子、女子自由式和男子古典式冠军运动员在比赛中均表现出了较高的技术优势获胜(ST)次数、进攻、防守和全面的技术动作使用能力,进攻效率、防守效率和技术全面性呈现出整体上升的态势。(3)在进攻能力和技术动作使用能力相当时,防守能力和技术动作成功率是决定运动员最终运动成绩的关键。

考虑地震事件内空间相关性的区域概率地震危险性分析

一次地震事件不同地点的地震动强度参数与结构响应参数之间是空间相关的,相关的地震效应将导致地震损失急剧集中与积累,从而造成灾难性事件,但是现有的区域尺度地震风险评估并没有考虑地震动的空间相关性。该文采用地统计学方法表征地震事件内地震动强度参数的空间相关性,提出了理论半变异函数的几何稳健估计方法,并采用加权最小二乘法实现对短距离空间相关性的准确高效评估。以新潟越冲地震为例,基于指数半变异函数模型,采用加权最小二乘法对几何稳健估计半变异函数值进行拟合,得到了PGA、PGV和0 s~10 s谱加速度的空间相关性函数,提出了变程b值的预测模型,结果表明:相比于短周期谱加速度,长周期谱加速度的空间相关性衰减速率更小,且在T=0.45 s处存在拐点。将所开发的空间相关性模型应用于区域概率地震危险性分析,采用Monte Carlo方法实现了空间相关随机场的区域地震动强度参数的模拟,改进了传统区域地震危险性分析的方法,发现绝大多数情况下考虑空间相关性的年超越概率大于未考虑空间相关性的年超越概率,表明考虑空间相关性对于建筑群落及基础设施风险评估、韧性城市建设等具有重要的指导意义。