Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical ...Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.展开更多
Traffic count is the fundamental data source for transportation planning, management, design, and effectiveness evaluation. Recording traffic flow and counting from the recorded videos are increasingly used due to con...Traffic count is the fundamental data source for transportation planning, management, design, and effectiveness evaluation. Recording traffic flow and counting from the recorded videos are increasingly used due to convenience, high accuracy, and cost-effectiveness. Manual counting from pre-recorded video footage can be prone to inconsistencies and errors, leading to inaccurate counts. Besides, there are no standard guidelines for collecting video data and conducting manual counts from the recorded videos. This paper aims to comprehensively assess the accuracy of manual counts from pre-recorded videos and introduces guidelines for efficiently collecting video data and conducting manual counts by trained individuals. The accuracy assessment of the manual counts was conducted based on repeated counts, and the guidelines were provided from the experience of conducting a traffic survey on forty strip mall access points in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA. The percentage of total error, classification error, and interval error were found to be 1.05 percent, 1.08 percent, and 1.29 percent, respectively. Besides, the percent root mean square errors (RMSE) were found to be 1.13 percent, 1.21 percent, and 1.48 percent, respectively. Guidelines were provided for selecting survey sites, instruments and timeframe, fieldwork, and manual counts for an efficient traffic data collection survey.展开更多
Based on the judgement of fractional Br ow nian motion, this paper analyzes the radial rotating error of a precision rotor. The results indicate that the rotating error motion of the precision rot or is characterized...Based on the judgement of fractional Br ow nian motion, this paper analyzes the radial rotating error of a precision rotor. The results indicate that the rotating error motion of the precision rot or is characterized by basic fractional Brownian motions, i.e. randomicity, non -sequencity, and self-simulation insinuation to some extent. Also, this paper calculates the fractal box counting dimension of radial rotating error and judges that the rotor error motion is of stability, indicating that the motion range of the future track of the axes is relatively stable.展开更多
文摘Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.
文摘Traffic count is the fundamental data source for transportation planning, management, design, and effectiveness evaluation. Recording traffic flow and counting from the recorded videos are increasingly used due to convenience, high accuracy, and cost-effectiveness. Manual counting from pre-recorded video footage can be prone to inconsistencies and errors, leading to inaccurate counts. Besides, there are no standard guidelines for collecting video data and conducting manual counts from the recorded videos. This paper aims to comprehensively assess the accuracy of manual counts from pre-recorded videos and introduces guidelines for efficiently collecting video data and conducting manual counts by trained individuals. The accuracy assessment of the manual counts was conducted based on repeated counts, and the guidelines were provided from the experience of conducting a traffic survey on forty strip mall access points in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA. The percentage of total error, classification error, and interval error were found to be 1.05 percent, 1.08 percent, and 1.29 percent, respectively. Besides, the percent root mean square errors (RMSE) were found to be 1.13 percent, 1.21 percent, and 1.48 percent, respectively. Guidelines were provided for selecting survey sites, instruments and timeframe, fieldwork, and manual counts for an efficient traffic data collection survey.
文摘Based on the judgement of fractional Br ow nian motion, this paper analyzes the radial rotating error of a precision rotor. The results indicate that the rotating error motion of the precision rot or is characterized by basic fractional Brownian motions, i.e. randomicity, non -sequencity, and self-simulation insinuation to some extent. Also, this paper calculates the fractal box counting dimension of radial rotating error and judges that the rotor error motion is of stability, indicating that the motion range of the future track of the axes is relatively stable.
