Impact of US Financial Sanctions on the Dollar's International Status

In 2022,the United States stepped up its sanctions on Russia.Most notably,it restricted the flow of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange(forex)assets,using financial administrative power as a source of strategic leverage.This move should have reduced the appeal of US dollar assets but in reality has not accelerated as expected the decline of the greenback as a store of value.The US dollar's share of global forex reserves increased instead of decreased during 2022 and 2023.Despite the rise of economic costs caused by tightened US financial sanctions,countries that recognize the geopolitical role of the United States have further accepted the dollar's international status;their continued willingness to live with the dollar's“security premium”has given a fillip to the US dollar in the short term,boosting its appeal as a reserve currency.Meanwhile,de-dollarization of forex reserves has yet to reach a sufficient scale,thus falling short of significantly challenging the dollar's reign.From a longer-term perspective,as economic and security conditions shift,countries that accept the dollar's international role or seek de-dollarization may change their choices.As a result,four possible scenarios may arise:(i)the preeminence of the US dollar remains unthreatened;(ii)the international monetary system splits into blocs;(iii)the international monetary system fragments;and(iv)the dollar loses its throne.The author believes that the last scenario is the most likely outcome.

Flow Rate Measurement of Gravity Infusion Set and Functional Evaluation of Drop Counter: A Pilot Study

Developing a novel drop counter by introducing the Internet of Things concept has been vigorously conducted in recent years. Understanding the newly introduced drop counter’s flow rate control accuracy and flow rate count feature is essential for improving safety in infusion management. This study aimed to verify if the new drop counters could secure accurate flow rate and drip count by conducting actual flow rate measurements using gravimetry and functional evaluation. A drop counter was attached to each drip chamber of the infusion set, and an IV drip was conducted at the 100 ml/h flow rate. The weight of discharged physiological saline was measured to plot trumpet curves. Next, three different types of drop counters were evaluated to determine if they maintained drip count accuracy according to the changes in their position angles. The flow rate errors in all conditions indicated trumpet-like curves, exhibiting an overall error range within ±10% in all observation windows. Although every drop counter successfully detected and measured dripping, it was challenging in some counters to detect dripping when the drip chamber was tilted. In comparing adult and pediatric IV sets, the adult IV set was found to be less likely to detect dripping in the angled position. No significant differences in results were confirmed between high and low flow rates, suggesting that the drop count function would not be affected by the flow rate in the ranges of typical infusion practices. Doppler sensors have a wide range of measurements and high sensitivity;the dripping was detected successfully even when the drip chamber was tilted, probably due to the advantages of these sensors. In contrast, miscounts occurred in those equipped with infrared sensors, which could not detect light intensity changes in tilted positions. Understanding the tendencies in flow rate errors in infusion can be valuable information for infusion management.

COUNTER Release 5新版本规范分析与研究

本文通过介绍COUNTER规范的历史发展、报告视图、元素属性,并对最新版本的更新与特点进行分析研究,以便国内研究者能更方便快捷地了解和应用COUNTER规范。

The Characteristics of the Trump Administration's Sanctions

The Trump administration heavily relies on economic sanctions to solve diplomatic problems. Those sanctions are far more protrusive than the ones enforced by his predecessors in terms of scale and scope of the intended target. The Trump administration has manufactured many new programs for sanctions and has attached much importance to imposing sanctions on entities that violate human rights. It also has increased its use of secondary sanctions, export controls and investment restrictions. Both sanction-related criminal enforcement and fines have hit new heights. The main reason for this strategy is that Trump and his economic team are keen on waging a"money war."Meanwhile, sanctions can appeal to Trump’s requirements for quick, easy achievements, and can also contain and suppress opponents. The economic impact of these sanctions is obvious,while the political impact is still questionable. These sanctions have harmed the US alliance system and boosted the de-dollarization trend in the global economy, which makes it increasingly difficult for the United States to achieve its prospective goals in the future.

Analyzing Direct and Indirect Effects of Economic Sanctions on I. R. Iran Economic Growth: Focusing on the External Sector of the Economy

In this paper, we analyze direct and indirect effects of economic sanctions on I. R. Iran’s economic growth from 1979 to 2012 focusing on the external sector of the economy. Our data for variables except for sanction are derived from 1966 to 2012 and a dummy variable is used for each sanction’s beginning years. The designed model is based on the endogenous growth models in which we analyze the effects by 2SLS econometric method. Our findings indicate that economic sanctions have not directly affected Iran’s economic growth so much. These effects have been indirect through restricting total imports, capital goods imports, imports of intermediate goods and primary products and also the export leading to decreased economic growth of the country.

Economic Sanctions:A Political,Economic,and Normative Analysis

The use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool dates back to the Megarian decree of 432 BC,but has long been controversial.Economic sanctions are commonly employed by governments as a coercive tool to adjust the behavior of a state actor that is in violation of international behavior norms,yet there remains concern as to the effectiveness of applying economic sanctions and the extent to which sanctions should be applied.Further questions arise regarding both the viability and morality of sanctions.This paper will examine case studies to determine the moral,economic,and political impact of imposing sanctions on state actors.In doing so,this paper will specifically examine the economic sanctions applied to South Africa,Iran,and Crimea.It will examine the application of sanctions and the effectiveness in achieving established foreign policy goals,while also analyzing the impact on innocents to determine the ethical implications of sanctions.

US Financial Sanctions on Russia： Do They Work？

Since the Crimean crisis, the US has continuously tightened financial sanctions on Russia. In the short term, this doesn't appear to be working very effectively, but in the long run, it has indeed had an irreversible impact on the Russian economy. Though the US has repeatedly upgraded its sanction plans, four puzzles have long remained unsolved: appropriate sanctions have avoided a humanitarian crisis, but raised moral dilemmas; actual enforcement of sanctions is getting more and more difficult; EU cooperation with the US is vital, but the two regions more often than not play different tunes; and the frequent use of sanctions weakens US legitimacy and integrity, leading to a degradation of the sanction mechanism. Sanctions have continued to be implemented since President Trump took office, but with some new adjustments.

Comparative Alpha Tracks Counting Using an Optical Microscope and a Spark Counter

In the metrology of radon, an environmental lung carcinogen, the integrated measurements necessary for epidemiological studies are made very often using the tracks detector LR 115 type 2. For dosimetric analysis, the etched tracks from radon alpha particles on this detector are usually counted by means of an optical microscope or a spark counter. An optimal reading of the track densities which must be converted into radon concentrations, can’t be done without a good mastery of the mode of operation and use of these devices. Furthermore, investigations to know as to whether or not each of those can be used to determine radon concentration are necessary. These are the objectives of the present work in which LR 115 samples exposed to radon for at least 3 months, were chemically developed under standard conditions and read. The track densities obtained with the microscope are very much higher than those of the counter for each sample. These results are consistent with those published by other authors. However, each of these devices can be used interchangeably for alpha tracks counting, as both provide radon concentrations with a very good linear correlation coefficient of 0.95 taking into account their respective calibration factors for the reading of this detector. In addition, the saturation phenomenon for the spark counter reading of LR 115 detector occurs beyond 11,000 tr/cm2, a density never reached during our environmental radon measurements.

Aerodynamic Coupling Analysis of Counter⁃rotating Propfan and Inlet Flow Field

Taking a propfan engine as the research object,the CFD method was used for 3D modeling and unsteady slip flow for numerical calculation.The propfan rotation domain and the nacelle outside flow domain were meshed by using the partition splicing grid technology.Used the Reynolds⁃averaged of N⁃S equation,the Reynolds stress term uses the RNG turbulence model;and based on the slip grid method,numerical calculation of the flow field with different Mach numbers,front and rear blade angles and engine state were carried out;and the change law of propeller fan characteristics and the influence of slip flow on the inlet flow field were analyzed.The blade angle was the key parameter of the propeller fan characteristic conditions.When the blade angle increases from 41°to 50°,the thrust coefficient increases by 31.2%,and the power coefficient increases by 33.4%;in the climbing state of the propeller fan,the maximum total pressure distortion at the inlet port of 6.8%;the cross section is less affected by the slip flow of the propfan;and the pressure distribution is relatively uniform,but the area of the flow channel is small.The research results can provide a solution for the matching of the counter⁃rotating propeller fan and the engine and the arrangement of the air inlet measuring rake.

基于雷达自动目标识别技术的反无人机雷达

面对“低慢小”(Low Slow Small, LSS)无人机威胁挑战,反无人机雷达的关键作用日益凸显。在反无人机系统(Countering-Unmanned Aerial Systems, C-UAS)技术中,反无人机雷达作为C-UAS的核心传感器,承担着关键任务,包括探测和导引等。尽管其重要性显而易见,反无人机雷达设计仍然存在概念上的不清晰,例如如何定义LSS无人机目标,以及为何众多反无人机雷达难以探测无人机等问题。通过探讨雷达自动目标识别(Automatic Target Recognition, ATR)技术在反无人机雷达中的应用,从目标特性和探测技术2个方面明确了关键问题。强调了雷达探测的独立过程,将其分为“信号检测”和“目标识别”,并指出反无人机雷达的主要探测对象是LSS无人机目标。ATR性能等级被明确定义,涵盖了“Detection探测”“Classification分类”“Identification识别”“Description描述”4个等级。整合ATR功能显著提升了无人机的探测距离和识别能力,推动了反无人机雷达系统的性能升级。

美国实体清单制度对我国实体影响及应对策略--基于中兴、华为、联邦快递案的实证研究

美国基于技术霸权,利用实体清单制度等单边制裁手段对我国经济、科技等领域进行干涉,削弱中国的技术竞争力,触及中国安全。我国出台《不可靠实体清单规定》等法律法规,积极应对美国制裁,维护国家安全。实证研究表明,中国企业在大国博弈下,面临执行实体清单禁令和受到中国反制裁立法体系处罚的两难困境。基于此,我国应在人类命运共同体理念之上,引入严苛的反制裁实体要件体系,并在逻辑上确立反制裁法律制度适用的平衡机制。我国在反制裁法律体系优化中应综合考虑行政救济机制的具体规则、相关法律法规的衔接、工作机制的程序性规范等因素,从而助力中国实体通过相关救济制度走出困境。

乡村振兴战略下逆城镇化形成动因与推进策略探析

推进逆城镇化,让社会精英到农村发挥引领作用,是实现乡村振兴的重要举措。从乡村振兴战略视角阐述逆城镇化的概念与作用,并基于社会行为学理论,从外部环境和行为主体两方面解析推进逆城镇化形成的动力因素及其作用关系,以此探析逆城镇化的前因后果。研究认为:促进逆城镇化形成与发展的动力可归纳为四个方面,即政府引导力、城市推动力、农村吸引力和基础支撑力;当前应以政府引导力、农村吸引力为着力点,以产业振兴为中心,推动城乡融合发展。基于上述分析,可以从发挥逆城镇化在乡村振兴中的基础作用、发挥产业振兴在逆城镇化中的核心作用、健全促进逆城镇化发展的政策与机制、创造逆城镇化发展的基础条件等方面着手更好地推进逆城镇化。

我国《反外国制裁法》追偿诉讼条款的适用研究

追偿诉讼是一国阻断法的私人实施路径,其主要功能在于阻却外国法律及相关判决的域外适用,从我国《反外国制裁法》第十二条的性质、目的和功能上判断,该条规定属于阻断性质的追偿诉讼条款。在借鉴域外阻断立法追偿诉讼条款适用经验的基础上,我国应在谦抑性原则的理念下对《反外国制裁法》第十二条规定的“我国公民、组织”“任何组织和个人”“歧视性限制措施”等用语进行谨慎的界定,同时应积极制定后续实施细则,完善相关法律法规的配套保障条款,以明确第十二条追偿诉讼条款的请求权基础、管辖权依据、判决的执行途径等适用过程中的具体问题,从而保障《反外国制裁法》追偿诉讼条款的真正实施。

金融制裁与反制裁中的国家能力建设

制裁被称为没有硝烟的战争,制裁国意图通过制裁措施改变被制裁国的政策和行为,被制裁国通过反制裁措施抵消制裁的消极影响。制裁和反制裁的效果归根结底有赖于制裁国和被制裁国的国家能力。金融制裁取代贸易制裁等传统制裁正在成为制裁和反制裁的主要场域和工具。金融制裁和反制裁所依赖的国家能力建设具有具体指向和多重面向,存在着复杂性和技术性的特征。理解金融制裁和反制裁场域中的国家能力建设具有重要的现实意义,能为设计金融反制裁工具和措施提供理论框架。

俄乌冲突下西方对俄罗斯能源制裁及其应对:实施路径与阶段性效果评估

俄乌冲突爆发后,俄罗斯能源行业始终是西方精准打击的重点目标。西方力图通过全方位能源制裁,在减少俄用于支持战争的能源出口收入的同时,挤压其在欧洲能源市场的空间,实现化石能源供应“去俄化”。为应对西方制裁,俄开始在“向东看”战略的框架下加快开拓亚洲市场。从制裁及其应对效果看,西方未能实现最重要的预期目标——阻止俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争行为。俄罗斯亦功败输赢兼备,在石油行业,俄基本实现了石油出口市场从欧洲到亚洲的战略转向。但在天然气行业,用亚洲市场取代欧洲市场的目标还远未达成。欧洲在寻求替代油气资源、快速降低对俄能源依赖的同时,也付出了溢价购气和经济衰退的昂贵代价。俄乌冲突已使国际能源市场发生重大调整,俄石油出口转向东方是最近30年来世界石油市场最大规模的贸易流转向,全球能源市场供求关系、运输通道、竞争格局和能源结构将进入深度调整期。

俄乌冲突下的能源安全及我国的应对

美西方国家对俄罗斯能源实施的严厉制裁将严重影响全球能源安全。俄乌冲突对欧洲地区能源安全的影响,主要表现在能源供应链出现较大程度的断裂,以及经济和社会发展遇阻两方面。美国虽然已实现了能源独立,但由于与全球能源市场的高度一体化,亦使其深陷能源危机的漩涡,加速了美元地位的下降。一轮又一轮的制裁使俄罗斯在国际能源市场的话语权下降,传统能源生产和出口受到重创。为有效应对能源安全问题,欧洲地区正寻求能源供应多元化,并加快推进清洁能源和可再生能源;美国一方面积极抢占欧洲能源市场,另一方面缓慢补充石油战略储备;而俄罗斯积极寻求能源出口转向,加速能源经济技术转型。我国应在顶层设计上抓紧审议通过《能源法》,加大清洁能源和可再生能源的研发力度和支出,深度参与全球能源市场,不过度依赖某一特定国家或地区的进口能源。

金融制裁是否遏制了主权财富基金对俄投资?——基于合成控制法的实证研究

主权财富基金是一类特殊的国际投资主体,与政府联系紧密,自身所具有的特殊属性与战略影响决定了其在金融制裁中更易触发制裁国的关注。本文分析了外国主权财富基金投资对俄罗斯的战略意义以及金融制裁遏制主权财富基金对俄罗斯投资的理论机制,在此基础上采用合成控制法量化评估美西方国家实施的金融制裁对俄罗斯吸引外国主权财富基金投资的影响。实证结果表明:2014年以来的金融制裁使俄罗斯年均损失超过36亿美元的主权财富基金投资流量,该规模达到制裁前外国主权财富基金对俄罗斯投资年度峰值的84%;而且制裁的负面影响随着时间的推移逐渐扩大。以上结果证明,美西方国家实施的金融制裁比较有效地遏制了外国主权财富基金对俄罗斯的投资,从而对俄罗斯构成经济孤立的压力。在当前金融制裁愈演愈烈的国际形势下,中国主权财富基金未来对俄罗斯投资以及与俄罗斯主权财富基金合作投资的行为将变得更加引人注目,应当及早做好预案,防范美西方国家的连带制裁。

经济制裁对两岸价值链关联的影响研究

文章运用亚洲开发银行的多区域投入产出表数据,测算经济体价值链关联、经济体生产距离和销售距离,在此基础上实证检验了经济制裁对价值链关联的影响,并基于“台湾地区—内地—美国”三角贸易,考察了美国经济制裁对三角贸易和两岸价值链关联的影响。结果表明,两岸价值链关联不断深化,经济体在GVC活动中的生产和销售并未出现明显的“近岸”特征;经济制裁对经济体价值链关联具有显著的负向作用;聚焦于三角贸易,美国经济制裁显著降低了美国与中国内地和台湾地区的价值链关联,并且促进了两岸价值链融合。最后,文章从创新驱动机制提升两岸价值链关联、以两岸携手嵌入内地内循环应对经济制裁、两岸携手开拓外部市场塑造新型贸易关系等方面提出了相应政策建议。

论闲置水权收储的法律性质

为规范落实最严格水资源管理制度,界定因散见各地方水权规范性文件而缺乏明确边界的闲置水权收储行为的法律性质,将闲置水权收储的特点与常见行政行为,包括行政许可撤回、行政征收、行政处罚与行政协议解除的特点进行比较分析。提出基于闲置水权收储规范存在缺少信赖利益、补偿条款、负面评价与协议形式的特性,导致闲置水权程序无法归类于现有行政行为体系之中。指出应分别针对财产权社会性义务与行政协议解除的方向进行调整,在减轻其行政限制程度之余,明确闲置水权收储应作为终局手段,在其他催告手段穷尽之后再行实施。

2023年中俄贸易:特点与问题

2023年,全球地缘政治冲突频发,世界经济增速放缓,在此背景下中俄携手并进,共克时艰。2023年中俄经贸合作的特点为:夯实经贸合作基础、货物贸易创历史最高水平、贸易联系更加密切、贸易平衡明显改善、贸易结构持续优化、跨境电商不断创新、对俄贸易省区更加广泛、民营企业成为贸易主体等。与此同时,中俄双方在运输服务、金融服务、旅游服务和医疗服务等领域加强合作,大项目建设稳步推进,地方经贸合作更加务实。尽管中俄贸易取得令人瞩目的成就,但也存在一定问题,包括物流运输短板突出、俄方政策的不确定性加大、欧美次级制裁的持续性影响以及双边贸易发展受到制约。展望未来,地缘政治冲突引发全球经济风险上升,中俄双方应加强形势研判与政策沟通,真正落实两国领导人确定的2030年前中俄经济合作重点方向,加大合作力度,推动两国贸易实现高质量发展。