Colorectal cancer’s burden attributable to a diet high in processed meat in the Belt and Road Initiative countries

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)plays a significant role in morbidity,mortality,and economic cost in the Belt and Road Initiative(“B and R”)countries.In addition,these countries have a substantial consumption of processed meat.However,the burden and trend of CRC in relation to the consumption of a diet high in processed meat(DHPM-CRC)in these“B and R”countries remain unknown.AIM To analyze the burden and trend of DHPM-CRC in the“B and R”countries from 1990 to 2019.METHODS We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study to collate information regarding the burden of DHPM-CRC.Numbers and age-standardized rates(ASRs)of deaths along with the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were determined among the“B and R”countries in 1990 and 2019.Using joinpoint regression analysis,the average annual percent change(AAPC)was used to analyze the temporal trends of age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDALR)from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade(2010–2019).RESULTS We found geographical differences in the burden of DHPM-CRC among“B and R”countries,with the three highest-ranking countries being the Russian Federation,China,and Ukraine in 1990,and China,the Russian Federation,and Poland in 2019.The burden of DHPM-CRC generally increased in most member countries from 1990 to 2019(all P<0.05).The absolute number of deaths and DALYs in DHPM-CRC were 3151.15[95%uncertainty interval(UI)665.74-5696.64]and 83249.31(95%UI 15628.64-151956.31)in China in 2019.However,the number of deaths(2627.57-2528.51)and DALYs(65867.39-55378.65)for DHPM-CRC in the Russian Federation has declined.The fastest increase in ASDALR for DHPM-CRC was observed in Vietnam,Southeast Asia,with an AAPC value of 3.90%[95%confidence interval(CI):3.63%-4.16%],whereas the fastest decline was observed in Kyrgyzstan,Central Asia,with an AAPC value of-2.05%(95%CI:-2.37%to-1.73%).A substantial upward trend in ASR of mortality,years lived with disability,years of life lost,and DALYs from DHPM-CRC changes in 1990-2019 and the final decade(2010-2019)for most Maritime Silk Route members in East Asia,South Asia,Southeast Asia,North Africa,and the Middle East,as well as Central Europe,while those of the most Land Silk Route members in Central Asia and Eastern Europe have decreased markedly(all P<0.05).The ASDALR for DHPM-CRC increased more in males than in females(all P<0.05).For those aged 50-74 years,the ASDALR for DHPM-CRC in 40 members exhibited an increasing trend,except for 20 members,including 7 members in Central Asia,Maldives,and 12 high or high-middle social development index(SDI)members in other regions(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION The burden of DHPM-CRC varies substantially across“B and R”countries and threatens public health.Relevant evidence-based policies and interventions tailored to the different trends of countries in SDIs or Silk Routes should be adopted to reduce the future burden of CRC in“B and R”countries via extensive collaboration.

Discourse Analysis of the Belt and Road Initiative From the Perspective of Central Asian Countries: A Case Study of the Republic of Kazakhstan

This study employs Norman Fairclough’s Critical Discourse Analysis(CDA)three-dimensional model,using the Republic of Kazakhstan as a case study,to delve into the discourse construction of China’s Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)in Central Asian countries.Through detailed analysis of policy documents,media reports,and public discussions in Central Asian countries,this paper reveals how the BRI constructs specific social practices,discourse events,and textual meanings within these nations.The findings indicate that through this global development strategy,China has not only strengthened its economic ties with Central Asian countries but has also exerted profound influences on political,cultural,and social levels.

Rules for Access of Foreign Capitals to Agricultural Field in Countries along the "Belt and Road"

Agriculture is related to the strategy and security of a country. Every country is very discreet about access of foreign capitals to the agricultural field. Countries along the " Belt and Road" also have imposed restrictions on the access of foreign capitals to the agricultural field.There are restrictions on establishing agriculture-related enterprises,affiliated organizations,and branch offices. Also,there are regulations concerning the scope,proportion,performance requirement,and approval of access of foreign capitals to the agricultural field.

Spatial Structure,Hierarchy and Formation Mechanisms of Scientific Collaboration Networks:Evidence of the Belt and Road Regions

Scientific collaboration has become an important part of the people-to-people exchanges in the Belt and Road initiative,and remarkable progress has been made since 2013.Taking the 65 countries along the Belt and Road(BRI countries)as the research areas and using collaborated Web of Science(WOS)core collection papers to construct an international scientific collaboration matrix,the paper explores the spatial structure,hierarchy and formation mechanisms of scientific collaboration networks of 65 countries along the Belt and Road.The results show that:1)Beyond the Belt and Road regions(BRI regions),Central&Eastern Europe,China and West Asia&North Africa have formed a situation in which they all have the most external links with other countries beyond BRI regions.China has the dominant role over other BRI countries in generating scientific links.The overall spatial structure has changed to a skeleton structure consisting of many dense regions,such as Europe,North America,East Asia and Oceania.2)Within the Belt and Road regions,Central&Eastern Europe has become the largest collaboration partner with other sub-regions in BRI countries.The spatial structure of scientific collaboration networks has transformed from the‘dual core’composed of China and the Central&Eastern Europe region,to the‘multi-polarization’composed of‘one zone and multi-points’.3)The hierarchical structure of scientific collaboration networks presents a typical‘core-periphery’structure,and changes from‘single core’to‘double cores’.4)Among the formation mechanisms of scientific collaboration networks,scientific research strength and social proximity play the most important roles,while geographical distance gradually weakens the hindrance to scientific collaboration.

Future temperature changes over the critical Belt and Road region based on CMIP5 models

Based on data of 22 models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5),the performance of climate simulation is assessed and future changes under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are projected over critical Belt and Road region.Compared with observations,the CMIP5 models simulate the linear trend and spatial distribution of the annual mean surface air temperature(SAT)better in the north(NBR)and south(SBR)of the Belt and Road region.The trend of the 22-model ensemble mean(CMIP5 MME)is 0.70/0.50
C per 100 years from 1901 to 2005,and the observed trend is 1.11/0.77
C per 100 years in the NBR/SBR region.After 1971,the relative error between CMIP5 MME and observations is 22%/15%in the NBR/SBR region.Seven/nine models are selected in the NBR/SBR to project future SAT changes under three RCP scenarios.For 2081e2100,warming in the NBR/SBR is projected to be(1.16±0.29)/(0.72±0.32)
C,(2.41±0.54)/(1.55±0.44)
C,and(5.23±1.02)/(3.33±0.65)
C for RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Under the RCP scenarios,the NBR region shows greater warming than the SBR region.The most significant warming is expected in Kazakhstan and the northern part of the SBR.The associated uncertainty generally increases with time under the three RCP scenarios.Furthermore,increases in warming over the Belt and Road region are more remarkable under higher-emission scenarios than lower-emission ones.

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation,temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables.The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate.In this paper,we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5)across the Belt and Road region.This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation,air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period(2021−2040),mid-term period(2041−2060)and long-term period(2081−2100).To discern spatial structure,Köppen−Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study.In relative terms,the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables,where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period.In addition to,though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios,greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios(SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0).For temperature,robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2°C under SSP3-7.0,and highest 7.0°C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day.The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer(+6.1°C)in the long-term(2081−2100)period under SSP5-8.5.Similarly,at the end of the twenty-first century,annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1%and 2.8%per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively.Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions.Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions.Finally,the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3%under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0%for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century.It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions.The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region.However,this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region.Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.

A Study on the Cooperative Mechanism of the Belt and Road Initiative from the Perspective of New Regionalism

The loosely-typed, duty-overlapped and subject-isolated cooperative mechanism of the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly limited the advancement of the initiative and affected the full play of its cooperative effect. New Regionalism is a theory of international relations that concerns international cooperation at the regional level. Its characteristics of multilevel, multi-topic and multi-subject conform to the cooperation needs of the Belt and Road Initiative and provide a guiding framework for the cooperative mechanism of the Initiative. According to the theoretical connotation of New Regionalism, the cooperative mechanism of the Belt and Road Initiative should enrich its cooperation forms, deepen cooperation topics and promote the participation of "State-Market-Society". This mechanism is expected to form various cooperation models, comprehensive governance and diversified participants to enable the smooth advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative.

The Status Quo, Opportunity and Approach——the Development of Ethnic Minorities in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative

Currently, China is advancing the Belt and Road Initiative, which creates a new opportunity of historical significance and provides guidance for the economic and social development of ethnic minority communities(particularly those in western China). Under the new historical conditions, it is necessary to innovate and improve China's regional aid policies and regional development strategies such as the "pairing assistance" and the Western Development, and organically combine them with the Belt and Road Initiative. In the meantime, China should revolve tightly around the internal and external "connectivity," and give full play to the functions of the "pairing assistance" policy and the "Western Development" strategy in a bid to boost the ethnic development of contemporary China within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Pattern of Opening Up,Integration and Reshaping Economic Geography——A New Economic Geography Analysis of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the central government has implemented several regional development plans,including the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt,aiming to reshape the economic geography of China.This paper is based on the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt and outlines the pattern of opening up.To analyze the impact of the pattern of opening up on the regional integration of China's economic geography,this paper has developed a new economic geography model comprised of four regions and two countries.From this,it draws some conclusions.First,the change of pattern of opening up will lead to shifting centripetal and centrifugal forces from the international market.The greater the scale of neighboring markets,the stronger the agglomeration force will be; the more product varieties made in neighboring countries,the more potent its dispersion force.Second,developing an inland international trade corridor will decentralize industry distribution and reduce the impact of external market integration on home countries.Third,the inland international trade corridor could alter the effect of domestic market integration on the economic geography.When domestic integration occurs prior to international integration,further integration of a domestic market leads to greater industrial distribution along a bell-shaped curve,which describes economic activities from dispersion to agglomeration to decentralization.Therefore,developing an integrated market system of major countries and opening a corridor between China and Europe is not only the key to reshaping China's economic geography but also the path to solving the problems of the Heihe-Tengchong Line.

Contributing More Chinese Wisdom to the Belt and Road Initiative:Exploration and Practice of the China Region Development & Reform Institute

As the"Belt and Road"is gaining ground with higher quality,China’s think tanks have played a unique role in facilitating policy communication,enhancing people-to-people connectivity and promoting practical cooperation,and have contributed a lot of"Chinese wisdom"to the development of BRI.

Labuan——A Rising Star of the Belt and Road Region

There is a small island in the north of the Brunei Bay and south of South China Sea,with an area of only92sq.m.It is described as one of the most mystical places of Asia,surrounded by coral reef with beautiful sands beaches and elegant maritime scenery.This island is called as the“garden island”of Borneo.There are also four sunken ships at the bottom of the sea area,bringing challenges and excitement to the adventurous divers.

Dancing Ping-Pong Promotes Global Collaboration——At the Sports Economy and International Regional Cooperation Forum for the Belt and Road Initiative in 2018

Sichuan is the strongest province in western China, and Chengdu is the first stop of the Silk Road and the Yangtze River Economic Zone. Qingbaijiang,the inception point of the Chengdu-Europe express railway, is an important source of artifacts from the ancient Sichuan civilization, and Sichuan province, the land of abundance, is the cradle and base of ping-pong. Chengdu has been connected to

Can increased economic complexity and reduced carbon emissions of the logistics industry go hand in hand?Evidence from countries along the Belt and Road

At present,the main focus of research lies in examining the connection between economic complexity and carbon emissions as a whole,but there is a scarcity of quantitative investigations on the link between the above variables within specific industries.Therefore,this study introduces economic complexity as a new variable to build a panel model within the traditional Environmental Kuznets Curve framework.Based on the data of the countries along the Belt and Road from 1998 to 2018,we used the Granger causality test to examine the causal relationship between variables,and use the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square methods to estimate the coefficients of variables.The key factor linking economic complexity and carbon emissions in the logistics industry is technology innovation Economic complexity can explain and predict the changes in carbon emissions of logistics industry more reasonably,and the relationship between them in line with the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis.Only high-income countries can increase economic complexity while reducing carbon emissions of logistics industry.Based on the empirical analysis,it is suggested that upper-middle income and lower middle-income countries can formulate relevant policies and regulations,and high-income countries can improve the relevant policies and regulations to promote the reduction of carbon emissions of the logistics industry.Studying the impact of economic complexity on carbon emissions in the logistics industry can help better predict and respond to the impact of climate change on the logistics industry.

Opportunities of Inner Mongolia's economic development under the background of the “Silk Road Economic Belt”

"The Silk Road Economic Belt" is a great strategic thought, through which China deepens allround reform and opening up, especially in the major move of opening up to the west. Inner Mongolia autonomous region owns the superior geographical position and was closely related to the Silk Road in ancient times. In the new stage, Inner Mongolia autonomous region should seize the opportunity of the development strategy, and strive to develop economic construction under the background of the belt of Prairie Silk Road, and play an important role in the economic belt of the "Prairie Silk Road".

Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

In the arid region of northwestern China(ARNC),water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems.The region’s complex water system and unique hydrological cycle show distinctive characteristics.Moreover,the intensified hydrological cycle and extreme climatic and hydrological events resulting from global warming have led to increased uncertainty around water resources as well as heightened conflict between water supply and water demand.All of these factors are exerting growing pressures on the socioeconomic development and vulnerable ecological environment in the region.This research evaluates the impacts of climate change on water resources,hydrological processes,agricultural system,and desert ecosystems in the ARNC,and addresses some associated risks and challenges specific to this area.The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.31
C per decade during 1961–2017 and hydrological processes are being significantly influenced by changes in glaciers,snow cover,and precipitation form,especially in the rivers recharged primarily by melt water.Ecosystems are also largely influenced by climate change,with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of natural vegetation exhibited an increasing trend prior to 1998,and then reversed in Xinjiang while the Hexi Corridor of Gansu showed the opposite trends.Furthermore,the desert-oasis transition zone showed a reduction in area due to the warming trend and the recent rapid expansion of irrigated area.Both the warming and intensified drought are threatening agriculture security.The present study could shed light on sustainable development in this region under climate change and provides scientific basis to the construction of the“Silk Road Economic Belt”.

基于机器学习的“一带一路”投资国别风险预测研究

“一带一路”倡议提出十年间,中国对沿线国家的投资规模持续扩大。然而,企业在抓住机遇,进行“一带一路”沿线国家投资的同时,也需要重点关注“一带一路”投资国别风险。本文从政治、经济、社会和对华关系4个维度构建“一带一路”投资国别风险预测指标体系;运用灰色关联分析计算样本国家的综合风险评价值;基于2012~2022年间“一带一路”沿线国家的数据,利用机器学习构建GA-BP神经网络、支持向量回归和随机森林3种预测模型;通过对比预测精度,确定最佳预测模型,利用2021年的指标数据,对2022年的投资国别风险进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)在“一带一路”投资国别风险的研究背景下,支持向量回归模型预测效果最优,证明机器学习模型能够有效应用于风险管理领域;(2)“一带一路”投资国别风险存在明显的地区差异,中东欧地区和东南亚地区投资国别风险普遍较低,而南亚地区投资国别风险普遍较高,但都存在特例。本文研究结果可为“走出去”企业在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资决策提供参考。

中国—东盟教育共同体视域下的国际中文教育及其未来发展进路

中国—东盟教育共同体的建立为“一带一路”倡议背景下国际中文教育的高质量发展提供了重要契机。现阶段应聚焦国际中文教育在国家战略、区域发展、事业发展以及个人能力发展等方面的时代要求,总结国际中文教育发展事业中的政策制定及其阶段性特征,在宏观层面构建一个强有力的政策治理体系,为中观层面的政策实施提供机制保障。同时,从微观层面着眼于教育合作的多方参与者,关注参与人员的规模、交流活动的成效以及教育发展的态势等。未来,还应从完善语言治理体系、构建项目合作集群、探索师资队伍建设、着力立体化人才培养、加强数智战略对接等方面推进高质量共建“一带一路”教育合作共同体背景下国际中文教育事业的创新发展。

“一带一路”共建国家银行业系统性风险的测度研究

有效识别“一带一路”共建国家的系统性风险及其关键驱动因素对平稳实现各国经济金融的深度融合具有重大的现实意义。基于150多万条银行微观股票数据和财务数据,通过构建压力时期回归模型的客观方法获得系统性风险三因素权重,在同一框架下利用规模、杠杆、关联性3个因子测算了银行、国家、“一带一路”共建国家系统3个层次的银行业系统性风险指数。研究结果表明,从系统性风险表现来看,“一带一路”共建国家整体的银行业系统性风险受全球宏观金融环境波动影响显著。此外,“一带一路”共建国家也会因为自身问题而出现银行业系统性风险上升的情形。印度、越南、印度尼西亚等国家是系统重要性国家,其银行业系统性风险水平较高;匈牙利、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚等国家的银行业系统性风险水平较低。银行业系统性风险较高的国家主要在于其有较高系统性风险贡献水平的银行,且各行业经济发展状况以及经济增长对国家层面系统性风险有显著的影响。从风险驱动因素看,关联性因子是驱动银行业系统性风险水平变化的主要因素,其次为规模因子和杠杆因子。

中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放测算及异质性分析——来自“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)的证据

采用环境拓展投入产出法测算了2007—2021年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)农产品出口贸易的隐含碳排放,进而运用LMDI模型探究贸易规模因素、出口结构因素和农业技术因素对隐含碳排放变动的贡献值与贡献率,从农产品部门和贸易区域两个层面对隐含碳排放变动的驱动因素进行异质性分析。研究发现:第一,2007—2021年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)的出口贸易隐含碳排放整体呈上升趋势,农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放年均增长率超过农产品出口贸易额年均增长率2.75%,隐含碳排放效率下降。第二,农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放存在明显的部门差异,因不合理的出口结构,农业、食品制造业和食品加工业等中高度碳排放密集型部门对隐含碳排放总量变动的贡献值占比较大,而林业、畜牧业等低度碳排放密集型部门的这一占比较小。第三,农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放存在明显的区域差异,对东南亚国家(地区)出口农产品产生的隐含碳排放占总碳排放的60%以上,贸易规模因素和农业技术因素是造成区域差异的主导因素。上述发现揭示了中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放变动的原因,为优化农产品出口结构、调整农产品出口贸易策略及碳排放双控制度的实施提供了新的思路与经验证据。