This study analyzes the spatial patterns and driving forces of housing prices in China using a 2,872-county dataset of housing prices in 2014. Multiple theoretical perspec- tives on housing demand, supply, and market,...This study analyzes the spatial patterns and driving forces of housing prices in China using a 2,872-county dataset of housing prices in 2014. Multiple theoretical perspec- tives on housing demand, supply, and market, are combined to establish a housing price model to explore the impact of land prices on housing prices. The relative impacts of land prices on housing prices at different administrative levels are then analyzed using the geo- graphical detector technique. Finally, the influencing mechanism of land prices on housing prices is discussed. The main conclusions are as follows. （1） Housing prices have a pyra- mid-ranked distribution in China, where higher housing prices are linked to smaller urban populations. （2） Land prices are the primary driver of housing prices, and their impacts on housing prices vary over different administrative levels. To be specific, the effect of land prices is the strongest in the urban districts of provincial capital cities. （3） The internal influ- ence mechanisms for land prices driving housing prices are： topographic factors, urban con- struction level, the agglomeration degree of high-quality public service resources, and the tertiary industrial development level. The urban land supply plan （supply policies） is the in- trinsic driver that determines land prices in cities; through supply and demand, cost, and market mechanisms, land prices then impact housing prices.展开更多
Based on an in-depth survey of different typical areas that are selected in different regions and at different levels, this paper identifies the general characteristics of China's urbanization, the impacts that ec...Based on an in-depth survey of different typical areas that are selected in different regions and at different levels, this paper identifies the general characteristics of China's urbanization, the impacts that economic development driven by both exogenous and endogenous engines has on the spatial pattern of urbanization, and the two urbanization paths:gradient development and hierarchal advancement. By analyzing such factors as population growth, population mobility, and economic and industrial development, it sums up five spatial patterns for future urbanization development trends. Through the analyses on the three aspects:whereabouts of the present 260 million migrant workers and their families, whereabouts of the new-born population and new working-age rural population, and the migrant scale of the existing agricultural labors moving to non-agricultural industries, this paper predicts that China's urbanization rate will slow down in the next five to ten years, and will reach about 65 percent in around 2030. On the basis of the analyses, it puts forward that "Five-Six-Eleven" regional pattern of urbanization should be established to guide the overall strategy for spatial pattern optimization. To optimize the spatial pattern of urbanization, it proposes specific strategies including coordinated development of large, medium-sized, and small cities, and small towns, as well as urbanization development strategies of differentiation according to different classes and regions.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41601151Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,No.2016A030310149Pearl River S&T Nova Program of Guangzhou
文摘This study analyzes the spatial patterns and driving forces of housing prices in China using a 2,872-county dataset of housing prices in 2014. Multiple theoretical perspec- tives on housing demand, supply, and market, are combined to establish a housing price model to explore the impact of land prices on housing prices. The relative impacts of land prices on housing prices at different administrative levels are then analyzed using the geo- graphical detector technique. Finally, the influencing mechanism of land prices on housing prices is discussed. The main conclusions are as follows. （1） Housing prices have a pyra- mid-ranked distribution in China, where higher housing prices are linked to smaller urban populations. （2） Land prices are the primary driver of housing prices, and their impacts on housing prices vary over different administrative levels. To be specific, the effect of land prices is the strongest in the urban districts of provincial capital cities. （3） The internal influ- ence mechanisms for land prices driving housing prices are： topographic factors, urban con- struction level, the agglomeration degree of high-quality public service resources, and the tertiary industrial development level. The urban land supply plan （supply policies） is the in- trinsic driver that determines land prices in cities; through supply and demand, cost, and market mechanisms, land prices then impact housing prices.
文摘Based on an in-depth survey of different typical areas that are selected in different regions and at different levels, this paper identifies the general characteristics of China's urbanization, the impacts that economic development driven by both exogenous and endogenous engines has on the spatial pattern of urbanization, and the two urbanization paths:gradient development and hierarchal advancement. By analyzing such factors as population growth, population mobility, and economic and industrial development, it sums up five spatial patterns for future urbanization development trends. Through the analyses on the three aspects:whereabouts of the present 260 million migrant workers and their families, whereabouts of the new-born population and new working-age rural population, and the migrant scale of the existing agricultural labors moving to non-agricultural industries, this paper predicts that China's urbanization rate will slow down in the next five to ten years, and will reach about 65 percent in around 2030. On the basis of the analyses, it puts forward that "Five-Six-Eleven" regional pattern of urbanization should be established to guide the overall strategy for spatial pattern optimization. To optimize the spatial pattern of urbanization, it proposes specific strategies including coordinated development of large, medium-sized, and small cities, and small towns, as well as urbanization development strategies of differentiation according to different classes and regions.
