Coupled multiphysical model for investigation of influence factors in the application of microbially induced calcite precipitation

The study presents a comprehensive coupled thermo-bio-chemo-hydraulic(T-BCH)modeling framework for stabilizing soils using microbially induced calcite precipitation(MICP).The numerical model considers relevant multiphysics involved in MICP,such as bacterial ureolytic activities,biochemical reactions,multiphase and multicomponent transport,and alteration of the porosity and permeability.The model incorporates multiphysical coupling effects through well-established constitutive relations that connect parameters and variables from different physical fields.It was implemented in the open-source finite element code OpenGeoSys(OGS),and a semi-staggered solution strategy was designed to solve the couplings,allowing for flexible model settings.Therefore,the developed model can be easily adapted to simulate MICP applications in different scenarios.The numerical model was employed to analyze the effect of various factors,including temperature,injection strategies,and application scales.Besides,a TBCH modeling study was conducted on the laboratory-scale domain to analyze the effects of temperature on urease activity and precipitated calcium carbonate.To understand the scale dependency of MICP treatment,a large-scale heterogeneous domain was subjected to variable biochemical injection strategies.The simulations conducted at the field-scale guided the selection of an injection strategy to achieve the desired type and amount of precipitation.Additionally,the study emphasized the potential of numerical models as reliable tools for optimizing future developments in field-scale MICP treatment.The present study demonstrates the potential of this numerical framework for designing and optimizing the MICP applications in laboratory-,prototype-,and field-scale scenarios.

Contrasts of bimodal tropical instability waves(TIWs)-induced wind stress perturbations in the Pacific Ocean among observations,ocean models,and coupled climate models

The coupling between wind stress perturbations and sea surface temperature(SST)perturbations induced by tropical instability waves(TIWs)in the Pacific Ocean has been revealed previously and proven crucial to both the atmosphere and ocean.However,an overlooked fact by previous studies is that the loosely defined“TIWs”actually consist of two modes,including the Yanai wave-based TIW on the equator(hereafter eTIW)and the Rossby wave-based TIW off the equator(hereafter vTIW).Hence,the individual feedbacks of the wind stress to the bimodal TIWs remain unexplored.In this study,individual coupling relationships are established for both eTIW and v TIW,including the relationship between the TIW-induced SST perturbations and two components of wind stress perturbations,and the relationship between the TIW-induced wind stress perturbation divergence(curl)and the downwind(crosswind)TIW-induced SST gradients.Results show that,due to different distributions of eTIW and vTIW,the coupling strength induced by the eTIW is stronger on the equator,and that by the vTIW is stronger off the equator.The results of any of eTIW and vTIW are higher than those of the loosely defined TIWs.We further investigated how well the coupling relationships remained in several widely recognized oceanic general circulation models and fully coupled climate models.However,the coupling relationships cannot be well represented in most numerical models.Finally,we confirmed that higher resolution usually corresponds to more accurate simulation.Therefore,the coupling models established in this study are complementary to previous research and can be used to refine the oceanic and coupled climate models.

An internal ballistic model of electromagnetic railgun based on PFN coupled with multi-physical field and experimental validation

To accelerate the practicality of electromagnetic railguns,it is necessary to use a combination of threedimensional numerical simulation and experiments to study the mechanism of bore damage.In this paper,a three-dimensional numerical model of the augmented railgun with four parallel unconventional rails is introduced to simulate the internal ballistic process and realize the multi-physics field coupling calculation of the rail gun,and a test experiment of a medium-caliber electromagnetic launcher powered by pulse formation network(PFN)is carried out.Various test methods such as spectrometer,fiber grating and high-speed camera are used to test several parameters such as muzzle initial velocity,transient magnetic field strength and stress-strain of rail.Combining the simulation results and experimental data,the damage condition of the contact surface is analyzed.

Different El Niño Flavors and Associated Atmospheric Teleconnections as Simulated in a Hybrid Coupled Model

A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Niño flavors,namely the Eastern-Pacific(EP)and Central-Pacific(CP)types,and the associated global atmospheric teleconnections are examined in a 1000-yr control simulation of the HCMAGCM.The HCMAGCM indicates profoundly different characteristics among EP and CP El Niño events in terms of related oceanic and atmospheric variables in the tropical Pacific,including the amplitude and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST),zonal wind stress,and precipitation anomalies.An SST budget analysis indicates that the thermocline feedback and zonal advective feedback dominantly contribute to the growth of EP and CP El Niño events,respectively.Corresponding to the shifts in the tropical rainfall and deep convection during EP and CP El Niño events,the model also reproduces the differences in the extratropical atmospheric responses during the boreal winter.In particular,the EP El Niño tends to be dominant in exciting a poleward wave train pattern to the Northern Hemisphere,while the CP El Niño tends to preferably produce a wave train similar to the Pacific North American(PNA)pattern.As a result,different climatic impacts exist in North American regions,with a warm-north and cold-south pattern during an EP El Niño and a warm-northeast and cold-southwest pattern during a CP El Niño,respectively.This modeling result highlights the importance of internal natural processes within the tropical Pacific as they relate to the genesis of ENSO diversity because the active ocean–atmosphere coupling is allowed only in the tropical Pacific within the framework of the HCMAGCM.

Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

Numerical Modelling of Coupled Heat and Mass Transfer in Porous Materials: Application to Cinder Block Bricks

In this work, we present numerical modelling of coupled heat and mass transfer within porous materials. Our study focuses on cinder block bricks generally used in building construction. The material is assumed to be placed in air. Moisture content and temperature have been chosen as the main transfer drivers and the equations governing these transfer drivers are based on the Luikov model. These equations are solved by an implicit finite difference scheme. A Fortran code associated with the Thomas algorithm was used to solve the equations. The results show that heat and mass transfer depend on the temperature of the air in contact with the material. As this air temperature rises, the temperature within the material increases, and more rapidly at the material surface. Also, thermal conductivity plays a very important role in the thermal conduction of building materials and influences heat and mass transfer in these materials. Materials with higher thermal conductivity diffuse more heat.

Mechanical behavior and damage constitutive model of sandstone under hydro-mechanical (H-M) coupling

Underground engineering often passes through water-rich fractured rock masses, which are prone to fracture and instability under the long-term coupling of in-situ stress field and pore water(P-W) pressure, ultimately threatening the stability of underground structures. In order to explore the mechanical properties of rocks under H-M coupling, the corresponding damage constitutive(D-C) model has become the focus of attention. Considering the inadequacy of the current research on rock strength parameters,energy evolution characteristics and D-C model under H-M coupling, the mechanical properties of typical sandstone samples are discussed based on laboratory tests. The results show that the variation of characteristic stresses of sandstone under H-M coupling conforms to the normalized attenuation equation and Mohr-Coulomb(M-C) criterion. The P-W pressure mechanism of sandstone exhibits a dynamic change from softening effect to H-M fracturing effect. The closure stress is mainly provided by cohesive strength, while the initiation stress, damage stress, and peak stress are jointly dominated by cohesive strength and friction strength. In addition, residual stress is attributed to the friction strength formed by the bite of the fracture surface. Subsequently, the energy evolution characteristics of sandstone under H-M coupling were studied, and it was found that P-W pressure weakened the energy storage capacity and energy dissipation capacity of sandstone, and H-M fracturing was an important factor in reducing its energy storage efficiency. Finally, combined with energy dissipation theory and statistical damage theory, two types of D-C models considering P-W pressure are proposed accordingly, and the model parameters can be determined by four methods. The application results indicate that the proposed and modified D-C models have high reliability, and can characterize the mechanical behavior of sandstone under H-M coupling, overcome the inconvenience of existing D-C models due to excessive mechanical parameters,and can be applied to the full-range stress–strain process. The results are conducive to revealing the deformation and damage mechanisms of rocks under H-M coupling, and can provide theoretical guidance for related engineering problems.

Pore-pressure and stress-coupled creep behavior in deep coal:Insights from real-time NMR analysis

Understanding the variations in microscopic pore-fracture structures(MPFS) during coal creep under pore pressure and stress coupling is crucial for coal mining and effective gas treatment. In this manuscript, a triaxial creep test on deep coal at various pore pressures using a test system that combines in-situ mechanical loading with real-time nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR) detection was conducted.Full-scale quantitative characterization, online real-time detection, and visualization of MPFS during coal creep influenced by pore pressure and stress coupling were performed using NMR and NMR imaging(NMRI) techniques. The results revealed that seepage pores and microfractures(SPM) undergo the most significant changes during coal creep, with creep failure gradually expanding from dense primary pore fractures. Pore pressure presence promotes MPFS development primarily by inhibiting SPM compression and encouraging adsorption pores(AP) to evolve into SPM. Coal enters the accelerated creep stage earlier at lower stress levels, resulting in more pronounced creep deformation. The connection between the micro and macro values was established, demonstrating that increased porosity at different pore pressures leads to a negative exponential decay of the viscosity coefficient. The Newton dashpot in the ideal viscoplastic body and the Burgers model was improved using NMR experimental results, and a creep model that considers pore pressure and stress coupling using variable-order fractional operators was developed. The model’s reasonableness was confirmed using creep experimental data. The damagestate adjustment factors ω and β were identified through a parameter sensitivity analysis to characterize the effect of pore pressure and stress coupling on the creep damage characteristics(size and degree of difficulty) of coal.

Assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard zoning using the physics-environmental coupled Model

In order to prevent and mitigate disasters,it is crucial to immediately and properly assess the spatial distribution of landslide hazards in the earthquake-affected area.Currently,there are primarily two categories of assessment techniques:the physical mechanism-based method(PMBM),which considers the landslide dynamics and has the advantages of effectiveness and proactivity;the environmental factor-based method(EFBM),which integrates the environmental conditions and has high accuracy.In order to obtain the spatial distribution of landslide hazards in the affected area with near realtime and high accuracy,this study proposed to combine the PMBM based on Newmark method with EFBM to form Newmark-Information value model(N-IV),Newmark-Logic regression model(N-LR)and Newmark-Support Vector Machine model(N-SVM)for seismic landslide hazard assessment on the Ludian Mw 6.2 earthquake in Yunnan.The predicted spatial hazard distribution was compared with the actual cataloged landslide inventory,and frequency ratio(FR),and area under the curve(AUC)metrics were used to verify the model's plausibility,performance,and accuracy.According to the findings,the model's accuracy is ranked as follows:N-SVM>N-LR>N-IV>Newmark.With an AUC value of 0.937,the linked N-SVM was discovered to have the best performance.The research results indicate that the physics-environmental coupled model(PECM)exhibits accuracy gains of 46.406%(N-SVM),30.625%(N-LR),and 22.816%(N-IV)when compared to the conventional Newmark technique.It shows varied degrees of improvement from 2.577%to 12.446%when compared to the single EFBM.The study also uses the Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake to evaluate the model,showcasing its trustworthy in forecasting power and steady generalization.Since the suggested PECM in this study can adapt to complicated earthquake-induced landslides situations,it aims to serve as a reference for future research in a similar field,as well as to help with emergency planning and response in earthquakeprone regions with landslides.

Virtually coupled train set control subject to space-time separation:A distributed economic MPC approach with emergency braking configuration

The emerging virtual coupling technology aims to operate multiple train units in a Virtually Coupled Train Set(VCTS)at a minimal but safe distance.To guarantee collision avoidance,the safety distance should be calculated using the state-of-the-art space-time separation principle that separates the Emergency Braking(EB)trajectories of two successive units during the whole EB process.In this case,the minimal safety distance is usually numerically calculated without an analytic formulation.Thus,the constrained VCTS control problem is hard to address with space-time separation,which is still a gap in the existing literature.To solve this problem,we propose a Distributed Economic Model Predictive Control(DEMPC)approach with computation efficiency and theoretical guarantee.Specifically,to alleviate the computation burden,we transform implicit safety constraints into explicitly linear ones,such that the optimal control problem in DEMPC is a quadratic programming problem that can be solved efficiently.For theoretical analysis,sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the recursive feasibility and stability of DEMPC,employing compatibility constraints,tube techniques and terminal ingredient tuning.Moreover,we extend our approach with globally optimal and distributed online EB configuration methods to shorten the minimal distance among VCTS.Finally,experimental results demonstrate the performance and advantages of the proposed approaches.

Degree of Freedom Analysis for Holographic MIMO Based on a Mutual-Coupling-Compliant Channel Model

Degree of freedom(DOF)is a key indicator for spatial multiplexing layers of a wireless channel.Traditionally,the channel of a multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)half-wavelength dipole array has a DOF that equals the antenna number.However,recent studies suggest that the DOF could be less than the antenna number when strong mutual coupling is considered.We utilize a mutual-coupling-compliant channel model to investigate the DOF of the holographic MIMO(HMIMO)channel and give a upper bound of the DOF with strong mutual coupling.Our numerical simulations demonstrate that a dense array can support more DOF per unit aperture as compared with a half-wavelength MIMO system.

Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model

Based on a simple coupled Lorenz model,we investigate how to assess a suitable initial perturbation scheme for ensemble forecasting in a multiscale system involving slow dynamics and fast dynamics.Four initial perturbation approaches are used in the ensemble forecasting experiments:the random perturbation(RP),the bred vector(BV),the ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF),and the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV)methods.Results show that,regardless of the method used,the ensemble averages behave indistinguishably from the control forecasts during the first few time steps.Due to different error growth in different time-scale systems,the ensemble averages perform better than the control forecast after very short lead times in a fast subsystem but after a relatively long period of time in a slow subsystem.Due to the coupled dynamic processes,the addition of perturbations to fast variables or to slow variables can contribute to an improvement in the forecasting skill for fast variables and slow variables.Regarding the initial perturbation approaches,the NLLVs show higher forecasting skill than the BVs or RPs overall.The NLLVs and ETKFs had nearly equivalent prediction skill,but NLLVs performed best by a narrow margin.In particular,when adding perturbations to slow variables,the independent perturbations(NLLVs and ETKFs)perform much better in ensemble prediction.These results are simply implied in a real coupled air–sea model.For the prediction of oceanic variables,using independent perturbations(NLLVs)and adding perturbations to oceanic variables are expected to result in better performance in the ensemble prediction.

Mitigation of Transients in Capacitor Coupled Substations Using Traditional RLC Filter Techniques

This article presents an extensive examination and modeling of Capacitor Coupled Substations (CCS), noting some of their inherent constraints. The underlying implementation of a CCS is to supply electricity directly from high-voltage (HV) transmission lines to low-voltage (LV) consumers through coupling capacitors and is said to be cost-effective as compared to conventional distribution networks. However, the functionality of such substations is susceptible to various transient phenomena, including ferroresonance and overvoltage occurrences. To address these challenges, the study uses simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of conventional resistor-inductor-capacitor (RLC) filter in mitigating hazardous overvoltage resulting from transients. The proposed methodology entails using standard RLC filter to suppress transients and its associated overvoltage risks. Through a series of MATLAB/Simulink simulations, the research emphasizes the practical effectiveness of this technique. The study examines the impact of transients under varied operational scenarios, including no-load switching conditions, temporary short-circuits, and load on/off events. The primary aim of the article is to assess the viability of using an established technology to manage system instabilities upon the energization of a CCS under no-load circumstances or in case of a short-circuit fault occurring on the primary side of the CCS distribution transformer. The findings underscore the effectiveness of conventional RLC filters in suppressing transients induced by the CCS no-load switching.

Research on the Coupled and Coordinated Development of Tourism and Transport in Chengdu City

Based on a total of 16 indicators selected from the tourism and transport industries,an evaluation index system of the coupling and coordination development level of tourism and transport is constructed.The entropy value method and the coupling coordination degree model are used to conduct an empirical study on the development level and coupling coordination level of the transport and tourism industries in Chengdu City from 2011 to 2020.The results show that,on the whole,the coupling coordination degree of transport and tourism in Chengdu is poor and has been in a state of mild to moderate dysfunction.The development level of tourism lagged behind the development of transport from 2011 to 2012,and the two were in a state of mild dysfunction.However,from 2013 onwards,the development level of tourism was prioritized over the development level of transport.This shift caused the coupling coordination degree of the two industries to decline sharply to 0.23305 in 2013.The development level of the tourism industry increased again,reaching 0.34206 in 2019,which marked an improvement.Consequently,the coordination degree of the transport and tourism industries evolved from moderate dislocation to mild dislocation.Finally,the results of the empirical research are analyzed,and corresponding suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable growth of the transport and tourism industries in Chengdu City.These suggestions aim to improve the coupled and coordinated development level of the two industries.

Impacts of Surface Exchange Coefficients on Simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)Using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave Model

In this study,the effects of surface exchange coefficients on simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)are investigated using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model.Several experiments are conducted using different parameterization schemes for the drag(C_(D))and enthalpy exchange(C_(K))coefficients.For the selected case,considering only the leveling-off of C_(D)at high wind speeds does not effectively improve the simulated typhoon track,intensity,or size.We found that increasing C_(K)monotonically with wind speed(Komori et al.,2018)yields stronger winds and deeper pressures by enhancing latent and sensible heat fluxes,but typhoon intensity remains underestimated.We propose a new higher C_(K)than that from Komori et al.(2018)based on the theory of Emanuel(1995).This approach produces a greater modeled typhoon intensity that is in good agreement with the best track data and effectively improves the track error for the simulation.Improved accuracy for modeled typhoon intensity is achieved with the new coefficient because C_(K)/C_(D)reaches the threshold of about 0.75 predicted by Emanuel(1995).The new proposed C_(K)also results in a reasonably accurate modeled sea surface temperature.However,typhoon size and surface wave height are overestimated.This finding implies that more numerical tests for tropical cyclones of different nature(such as strong,weak,dissipating,rapidly intensifying,or weakening tropical cyclones)should be studied,and more physical processes should be explored in future coupled models.

The Interannual Variability of East Asian Monsoon and Its Relationship with SST in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Climate Model

Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980–1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asian monsoon (SAM) defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is geographically and dynamically different from the East Asian monsoon (EAM). The region of the monsoon defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is located in the tropical region of Asia (40–110°E, 10–20°N), including the Indian monsoon and the Southeast Asian monsoon, while the EAM de-fined in this paper is located in the subtropical region of East Asia (110–125°E, 20–40°N). The components and the seasonal variations of the SAM and EAM are different and they characterize the tropical and subtropical Asian monsoon systems respectively. A suitable index (EAMI) for East Asian monsoon was then defined to describe the strength of EAM in this paper. In the second part of the paper, the interannual variability of EAM and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the 200 year simulation were studied by using the composite method, wavelet transformation, and the moving correlation coefficient method. The summer EAMI is negatively correlated with ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) cycle represented by the NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the preceding April and January, while the winter EAM is closely correlated with the succeeding spring SST over the Pacific in the coupled model. The general differences of EAM between El Nino and La Nina cases were studied in the model through composite analysis. It was also revealed that the dominating time scales of EAM variability may change in the long-term variation and the strength may also change. The anoma-lous winter EAM may have some correlation with the succeeding summer EAM, but this relation-ship may disappear sometimes in the long-term climate variation. Such time-dependence was found in the relationship between EAM and SST in the long-term climate simulation as well. Key words East Asian monsoon - Interannual variability - Coupled climate model The author wishes to thank Profs. Wu G.X., Zhang X.H., and Dr. Yu Y.Q. for providing the coupled model re-sults. Dr. Yu also kindly provided assistance in using the model output. This work was supported jointly by the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China key project ’ The analysis on the seasonal-to-interannual variation of the general circulation’ under contract 49735160 and Chinese Academy of Sciences key project ’ The Interannual Va-riability and Predictability of East Asian Monsoon’.

The ‘Two oceans and one sea' extended range numerical prediction system with an ultra-high resolution atmosphere-ocean-land regional coupled model

The‘Two Oceans and One Sea’area(West Pacific,Indian Ocean,and South China Sea;15°S–60°N,39°–178°E)is a core strategic area for the‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’project,as well as national defense.With the increasing demand for disaster prevention and mitigation,the importance of 10–30-day extended range prediction,between the conventional short-term(around seven days)and the climate scale(longer than one month),is apparent.However,marine extended range prediction is still a‘blank point’in China,making the early warning of marine disasters almost impossible.Here,the authors introduce a recently launched Chinese national project on a numerical forecasting system for extended range prediction in the‘Two Oceans and One Sea’area based on a regional ultra-high resolution multi-layer coupled model,including the scientific aims,technical scheme,innovation,and expected achievements.The completion of this prediction system is of considerable significance for the economic development and national security of China.

Thermo-mechanical coupled particle model for rock

A thermo-mechanical coupled particle model for simulation of thermally-induced rock damage based on the particle simulation method was proposed.The simulation results of three verification examples,for which the analytical solutions are available,demonstrate the correctness and usefulness of the thermo-mechanical coupled particle model.This model is applied to simulating an application example with two cases：one is temperature-independent elastic modulus and strength,while the other is temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength.The related simulation results demonstrate that microscopic crack initiation and propagation process with consideration of temperature-independent and temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength are different and therefore,the corresponding macroscopic failure patterns of rock are also different.On the contrary,considering the temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength has no or little effect on the heating conduction behavior.Numerical results,which are obtained by using the proposed model with temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength,agree well with the experimental results.This also reveals that the rock subjected to heating experiences much more cracking than the rock subjected to cooling.

Atmospheric and oceanic responses to Super Typhoon Mangkhut in the South China Sea:a coupled CROCO-WRF simulation

The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and it encounters frequent typhoons.The atmosphere and ocean will create significant thermal and dynamic responses during the intense disturbance caused by typhoons.However,these responses have not been thoroughly investigated owing to the complicated marine environment.According to the satellite data,the SCS Basin was observed to have a strong sea surface temperature(SST)response to Typhoon Mangkhut,resulting in widespread SST cooling.A coupled model was used to investigate the atmospheric and oceanic responses to Typhoon Mangkhut.Best-track data,satellite SST,and ARGO measurements show that the coupled WRF-CROCO simulation displays better track,intensity,SST,temperature,and salinity profiles than those of the WRF-only simulation.Results show that the typhoon induced rightward intensifications in wind speed,ocean current,and SST.The following are some remarkable atmosphere and ocean responses:(1)the SST below the inner-core region is cooled by 1℃,resulting in a 37%-44%decrease in wet enthalpy,and the central pressure is increased by~9 hPa.Therefore,the changes in SST below the innercore region of the SCS Basin have a significant impact on air-sea fluxes under high-wind conditions;(2)the ocean boundary layer analysis shows that near-inertial oscillations on the right side of the typhoon track and a strong inertial current up to~2.28 m/s in the upper ocean were observed,which resonated with the local wind and flow field on the right side and induced strong SST cooling;(3)a decrease in SST decreased the moist static energy of the typhoon boundary layer,thereby weakening the typhoon’s intensity.The difference in equivalent potential temperature and sea surface pressure have a good correlation,indicating that the influence of moist static energy on typhoon intensity cannot be overlooked.