Coupling and Long-term Change Characteristics of Forest Carbon Sink and Forestry Economic Development in China

[Objectives]To analyze the changes in of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,provide reference for relevant management decisions,ecological governance and resource and environment management,and promote the development of green low-carbon economy in China.[Methods]Based on the data of six forest resource inventories from 1989 to 2018 and related studies,the comprehensive evaluation model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,the coupling degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,and the coupling coordination degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development were adopted.The coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development from 1992 to 2018 was analyzed.Stepwise regression and ARIMA model were used to analyze the influencing factors and lagging characteristics of forest carbon sink.The coupling degree between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China from 2019 to 2030 was predicted by autoregression and ADF test.The coupling between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China and its long-term change characteristics were also discussed in this study.[Results](i)The investment of ecological construction and protection,the actual investment of forestry key ecological projects,GDP and the import of forest products had a significant impact on forest resources carbon stock.The total output value of forestry industry,the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects and the export volume of forest products had a significant impact on the forest carbon sink,and the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects has the greatest impact on the two.(ii)The impact of actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects had a lag of 2 years on the forest resources carbon stock and a lag of 1 year on the forest carbon sink.When investing in forest carbon sink,it is necessary to make a good plan in advance,and do a good job in forest resources management and time optimization.(iii)From 1992 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy in China was gradually increasing.Although there were some fluctuations in the middle time,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock and the long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.24%annually,and the degree of coupling coordination increased from"serious imbalance"in 1992 to"high-quality coordination"in 2018.From 1993 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.63%annually,slightly faster than the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock and long-term development of forestry economy.The coordination level also rose from level 2 in 1993 to level 10 in 2018.(iv)The prediction shows that the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy would increase from 2019 to 2030.The coupling coordination degree(D)values of both were close to 1,the coordination level was also 10 for a long time,and the degree of coupling coordination was also maintained at the"high-quality coordination"level for a long time.[Conclusions]Forest has multiple benefits of society,economy and ecology,and forest carbon sink is only a benefit output.The long-term coupling analysis of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development is a key point to multiple benefit analysis.The analysis shows that the spillover effect and co-evolution effect of forest carbon sink in China are significant.From 1992 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development was gradually rising.The prediction analysis also indicate that the coupling coordination degree between the forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy will remain at the level of"high-quality coordination"for a long time from 2019 to 2030.Therefore,improving the level of forest management and maintaining the current trend of increasing forest resources are the key to achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of the coupling coordination of social security and economic development in China during 2002–2018

Clarifying the relationship between social security and economic development is helpful to realize the sustainable social security system and the stable function of sustainable economic development.In this paper,the entropy method,coupling coordination degree,standard deviation ellipse model,and spatial autocorrelation were used to study the spatial-temporal characteristics of coupling coordination of social security and economic development in China from 2002 to 2018.The results indicate that the relationship between social security and economic development in China has been gradually strengthened in the process of mutual adaptation and common development.The benign interaction between the two was unstable,though the coupling coordination degree gradually transitioned to the primary coupling coordination type.Besides,from a spatial perspective,first,the coupling coordination degree of social security and economic development in China contracted in the east-west and north-south directions,and the coupling coordination clustered in the central region in this period;second,the coupling coordination degree generally presented a positive spatial autocorrelation,and regions with similar coupling coordination degrees were in a state of agglomeration;finally,the hot spots clumped together to form a continuous area in the eastern coastal area while the cold spots expanded toward the northwest and northeast.Furthermore,the random distribution areas exhibited a trend of contraction.

Coupling and coordination of provincial new urbanization and high-quality agricultural development in China, 2004-2018

The construction of a new type of urbanization is a necessary path for the development of modern cities,and a powerful support for coordinating the balanced development of urban and rural areas and promoting high-quality agricultural development.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018,the article constructs a new urbanization and agricultural high-quality development evaluation system;then using the coupling coordination degree model and the spatial correlation analysis method,the paper empirically tests the coupling coordination of the two systems degree and its spatial relevance.The results of the study show that the average level of coupling and coordination between new urbanization and high-quality agricultural development in the period under study is at a barely coordinated level,with the highest level being moderately coordinated.There are significant inter-regional differences,with a higher level of coupling and coordination in the eastern regions and more room for improvement in the central and western regions.At this stage,the trend of"club convergence"is remarkable,with highhigh agglomeration and low-low agglomeration coexisting,and the polarization is serious.Therefore,comprehensively promoting the rural revitalization strategy,adhering to the integrated development of urban and rural areas,and enhancing inter-regional collaborative governance are powerful measures to promote the joint progress of new urbanization and high-quality agricultural development.

Assessment of rural sustainable development and analysis and prediction of obstacles and coupled coordinated development:A case study of Zaozhuang City

In China,the Innovation Demonstration Zone for the National Sustainable Development Agenda is a key initiative for executing the United Nations(UN)2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.The Zone also plays critical roles in addressing the developmental bottlenecks that China faces and sharing Chinese insights into global sustainable development efforts.On July 15,2022,the State Council endorsed the Zone’s establishment in Zaozhuang City,Shandong Province,where it focuses on innovation-led sustainable development in rural areas.Research into the levels,impediments,interdependencies,and evolutionary trends of rural sustainable development is crucial.Therefore,this research aimed to assist in comprehensively assessing developmental challenges and facilitating the harmonious advancement of social,economic,and environmental aspects in rural areas.In pursuit of the three fundamental dimensions of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),namely development’s drivers,quality,and equity,this study was grounded in China’s national Rural Revitalization Strategy and the demands of sustainable development strategies.It also aligns with the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the associated SDG indicators.Focusing on four key areas,namely production elements,natural elements,social elements,and rural governance,this study developed an evaluation index system for assessing the level of rural sustainable development.It employed a range of analytical models,including the game theory-based combination empowerment method,barrier degree model,coupling degree model,coupling coordination degree model,and gray prediction GM(1,1)model,to analyze the status and evolving trends of rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang City from 2015 to 2022.The key findings were as follows:①Relative to the baseline year 2015,the sustainable development level in Zaozhuang’s rural areas has shifted toward an improved state overall.②The primary barrier to achieving rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang is the city’s rural governance system.③While the components of rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang are in the early stages of both basic and moderate coordination,an overall enhancement has occurred in their integrative coordination.④Between 2023 and 2025,the level of integrative coordination in Zaozhuang is expected to rise steadily.However,reaching a state of advanced coordination will require additional time for development.

An integrated approach to evaluating the coupling coordination degree between low-carbon development and air quality in Chinese cities

Collaborative governance between ecological environment and climate change is a novel signature in China's policy agenda. However, such coordination remains understudied, especially at the local level. Using the principal component analysis, entropy evaluation methods, and the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM), we evaluated the level of coordination between carbon and air quality mitigation from 34 low-carbon pilot cities in China. We also illustrated the mechanism and policy formation that leads to different coupling patterns at the local level using three case studies. We found that most pilot cities perform a medium level of coupling coordination between low carbon development and air quality. The result reveals that most low-carbon pilot cities score relatively well in low-carbon development. Further, there is a significant cleavage in air quality between cities in the North and those in the South, indicating pilot cities in the South coordinate better than those in the North. In particular, pilot programs in the Southwest and Southeast coastal region perform well in collaborative governance, while the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei region is rated poorly because of the gap between air quality and low carbon development. Also, we found that the same low-carbon policy might have heterogeneous effects on different air pollutants and across different regions. The local government should adopt low-carbon development policies that address local level specific environmental and economic conditions to maximize their air pollution mitigation benefits.

Green Development for Supporting Sustainability of Northeast China:Performance Quantification,Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Implications

Green development is the cognition of geography to human-nature nexus under the background of the new era.As China is facing various eco-environment problems,green development has become a key approach towards ecological progress,and it is ultimately an explicit means to respond to support sustainable development in China.Quantifying green development performance is essential to track efforts towards sustainability and guide policymakers.However,applying the balanced property of’Economy-Ecology-Society’of green development to its performance assessment is rarely discussed.Here we elaborated the connotation of green development and developed a quantification model with coupling coordination degree to assess green development performance of the largest old industrial base of China,Northeast China.We found that the green development performance has been improved from a score of 0.443 in 2003 to 0.530 in 2019 but the disparities of green development performance were enlarging over time,especially for the cities in Heilongjiang.A positive spatial autocorrelation phenomenon of green development performance was confirmed,and Low-Low clusters in the northeastern Heilongjiang and High-High clusters in the central-eastern Liaoning were discovered.This study suggests the need to track the spatio-temporal dynamics of green development performance to provide references for achieving sustainable development goals in northeast China and other regions.

Coupling analysis of the major impact on sustainable development of the typical arid region of Turpan in Northwest China

Analyzing the sustainable development of a given region can provide an important reference and guide for future orientation.The study selects Turpan(including Gaochang District,Shanshan County,and Toksun County)in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of Northwest China as the study area and first investigates the essence of regional sustainable development.Based on the relevant data of the population,economy,and environment of Turpan from 2002 to 2018,we constructed an evaluation index system for three dimensions,namely,the population,economy,and environment,and analyzed them systematically.Specifically,we quantitatively calculated the comprehensive evaluation index,coupling degree,and coupling coordination degree of the sustainable development system of the study area.The study finds that Turpan has become increasingly sustainable and orderly;the development level has continually improved from near imbalance to positive coordination.During the study period,the government has adopted appropriate models and paths to promote positive interactions among the population,economy,and environment based on engineering techniques and ecological means.The results show that the coupling coordination degree has increased from 0.3692 to 0.8894 during the period 2002–2018,which reflects the actual situation of Turpan and indicates that the proposed analysis method can effectively measure and evaluate the level of sustainable development in this region.Moreover,the study also puts forward main functional zoning of Turpan(i.e.,Gaochang District as an optimized development zone,Shanshan County as a major agricultural production zone,and Toksun County as a key ecological function zone)and regional planning principles based on the population,economic,and environmental coupling analysis for the three jurisdictions in Turpan.

西藏产业经济发展耦合协调度分析

通过选取2011-2021年西藏三大产业总值作为指标数据,运用耦合协调度模型对西藏产业经济发展耦合作用进行实证分析。结果表明,2011-2021年西藏产业经济发展指数总体呈上升趋势,第一产业综合指数年均增长4.5%,依然是西藏经济发展中的基础性产业;第二产业综合指数年均增长率为4.1%,其提供的设施保障能力不断加强;第三产业综合指数年均增长高达12.5%,其经济带动效果作用不断提升;西藏三大产业与经济发展的协调度由0.144提高到0.94,总体呈现水平向上的趋势,其协同互动发展机制正不断完善。在未来的发展中,西藏仍需要完善第一产业基础性功能,提升第二产业的自主创新能力,稳定第三产业对经济增长的推动作用,注重产业协调发展,促进西藏经济高质量发展。

Mechanism and Countermeasures for Action of Scientific and Technological Innovation on Integration of Industrialization and Urbanization

In the current process of deepening reform in China,industrial structure upgrading,economic structural transformation and new urbanization are important tasks to promote social and economic development,and technological innovation has gradually become the primary driving force for industrial upgrading,economic transformation and the realization of new urbanization.The article analyzed the action mechanism of scientific and technological innovation on the integration of industrialization and urbanization through qualitative and quantitative methods,found out the prominent problems faced by Henan through the empirical analysis of relevant data of Henan Province,and then proposed the integrated development path driven by scientific and technological innovation.

中国数字经济与制造业绿色发展耦合协调研究

文章基于数字经济与制造业绿色发展的耦合机理,构建评价指标体系,运用熵权法测度了中国30个省份2013—2021年的数字经济发展水平与制造业绿色发展水平,利用耦合协调度模型探讨数字经济与制造业绿色发展的时空演化特征,利用障碍度模型分析耦合协调进程中的障碍因子,并实证分析了两者耦合协调的影响因素。研究发现:中国数字经济与制造业绿色发展存在较强的耦合互动关系,耦合协调度呈上升趋势,但整体水平不高且局部不均衡;数字经济与制造业绿色发展受到经济发展水平、政府参与程度、城镇化发展的正向影响。

数字经济背景下山东省文化与旅游产业融合发展的测度与路径研究

文化产业与旅游产业之间存在着天然的融合诉求,而数字技术已成为文旅融合高质量发展的助推力。依据文化产业与旅游产业的产业特性及两者相互作用机制,本文从产业规模、产业接待、产业实力、产业效益4个维度构建文旅产业指标体系,引入耦合协调度模型对山东省2010~2020年的文旅产业发展水平及耦合协调程度进行测度,并分析时序变化。研究结果表明:山东省文化产业与旅游产业总体发展水平逐年提高,而文化产业发展普遍滞后于旅游产业发展;耦合协调度呈现出稳步上升态势,由0.390 8提高到0.900 6,协调等级由轻度失调提升到优质协调。基于此,从培育文旅产业增强文旅融合发展新动能,构建数字文旅平台健全价值共创机制,拓展技术与产品创新传导渠道,培养新型文旅数字化人才等方面,提出了促进数字经济赋能文旅融合高质量发展的路径。

数字经济与农村物流的耦合协调关系测度研究

数字经济与农村物流的深入融合是农村经济高质量发展的战略选择。现有的物流体系难以满足农村地区日益增长的数字化、柔性化与专业化供给需求,亟须通过与数字经济的耦合协调机制,为农村经济的高质量发展输送“动能”。基于结合形式-主体逻辑-运作层级的理论框架,厘清数字经济与农村物流耦合协调系统的运作机理。通过构建评价指标体系与耦合协调评价模型,论证我国21个省(自治区、直辖市)数字经济与农村物流的耦合协调关系。研究结果表明:数字经济与农村物流的耦合呈低级到高级、简单到复杂的正向发展趋势;就分梯队视角而言,四梯队分别呈现齐头并进、积极驱动、左右抗衡与协调失衡的耦合协调趋势。针对耦合协调发展差异化,采取分梯队治理策略,可以为农村经济的高质量发展制配方案。

沿黄城市生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调时空演变分析

为丰富黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展研究,并为沿黄城市经济发展提供对策建议,分别构建生态保护和高质量发展评价指标体系,以60个沿黄地级市为样本单元,采用熵值法对指标赋权并计算2010—2020年沿黄各市生态保护指数、高质量发展指数,采用耦合协调度模型计算生态保护与高质量发展耦合度、协调度并划分协调等级,计算相对发展度以判断生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调类型,分析沿黄城市生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调动态演变情况,结果表明:2010—2020年沿黄城市生态保护与高质量发展协调度大都稳中有升、少数城市呈下降趋势,2020年协调等级整体上还较低,尚有37个城市处于失调状态,生态保护与高质量发展的耦合协调任重道远;从空间上看,沿黄城市生态保护和高质量发展协调度总体上呈现下游>中游>上游的格局,研究时段生态保护与高质量发展协调度平均值大小排序前十位的城市多为沿海城市或省会城市、后十位的城市多为各省(区)的边缘城市,地理位置、资源禀赋、政策扶持程度和经济发展模式等对耦合协调度有重要影响;2020年沿黄城市生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调类型为生态保护滞后型的城市有31个、为均衡型的城市有5个、为生态保护领先型的城市有24个,表明沿黄城市生态保护整体上滞后于高质量发展。

河北省休闲农业与旅游业耦合协调关系研究

休闲农业是一项旅游性较强的新兴产业,深入探索休闲农业与旅游业的耦合协调关系是促进两者可持续发展的重要基础。基于此,本研究以河北省为例,构建休闲农业与旅游业评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定指标权重,利用线性加权法测算两系统的综合发展指数,最后利用耦合协调度模型测算2013—2022年河北省休闲农业与旅游业的耦合协调度。实证结果表明:河北省休闲农业与旅游业综合发展指数变动趋势大体保持一致,整体呈现先升后降的趋势,呈现倒“V”型态势,2013—2019年指数上升,2019年后受疫情影响逐渐下降;两系统耦合度较低,目前处于拮抗阶段,耦合协调度发展经历了中度失调、轻度失调、濒临失调、勉强协调、初级协调、勉强协调、濒临失调7个阶段,后期疫情对于两系统的发展影响较大;在划分类型上,以休闲农业主导性为主,两大系统相互支撑、相互促进作用显著。基于此,促进河北省休闲农业与旅游业耦合协调关系进一步健康发展,应建立耦合协调发展管理机制、加强政府扶持及完善基础设施等。

大运河沿线省市文旅商产业融合发展研究——基于耦合协调、时空演进与发展路径分析

推动大运河沿线省市文旅商产业融合和高质量发展,是有效衔接国家重大发展战略的重要抓手。通过构建文旅商产业评价指标体系,测算大运河沿线省市2012-2020年文旅商产业耦合协调度,分析空间演化特征和影响路径。研究发现:研究期内大运河沿线省市文旅商融合水平整体呈现出逐年上升趋势;文旅商融合水平不同,且具有空间集聚性;在政策保障基础上及文旅商相关因素影响下,文旅商产业通过交叉、渗透和重组,从而实现产业协同发展形成文旅商产业综合体。因此,应采取差异化文旅商融合发展策略,以区域协同发展为基础,以大运河文化带建设为抓手,进一步推动大运河沿线省市形成全域统筹、区域协同的文旅商融合发展格局,实现大运河沿线省市经济社会文化高质量发展。

中国省域环境规制与科技创新耦合协调发展研究

环境规制与科技创新耦合协调发展能为实现经济增长与生态文明提供强有力的支撑。该文构建环境规制与科技创新水平评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型测算2009—2020年中国30个省域环境规制与科技创新的耦合协调度,并对耦合协调度的时空分布格局进行分析。结果表明:研究期内中国30个省域环境规制与科技创新的耦合协调度整体偏低,尚未达到良性耦合协调发展状态,但呈现上升趋势,增幅呈现“西高东低”特征;各地区耦合协调度发展不均衡,整体呈现“东高西低、南高北低”的空间分布格局,高水平耦合协调区域逐渐从东部沿海向内陆扩张;依据协调等级和特征将各省域划分为创新主动型、技术进步型、环境约束型、传统被动型和创新滞后型,并提出环境规制应结合地区创新能力实施差异化的区域政策等建议。

浙江省数字经济与绿色发展耦合协调关系测度及政策启示

绿色发展与数字经济的有机融合是实现区域高质量发展的重要途径。本文以浙江省11个地级市为典型案例区,构建了包含7个子系统、37个指标的绿色发展与数字经济评价指标体系,采用改进的耦合协调度模型对2014—2020年数字经济和绿色发展系统的耦合协调关系进行关系测度,以期为区域可持续发展决策提供参考。结果发现:(1)绿色发展系统与数字经济系统综合发展水平总体都呈现上升趋势,除了杭州外,其他城市均表现数字经济发展水平滞后于绿色发展水平。(2)杭州是浙江省的绿色发展和数字经济“领头羊”,并在2019年率先进入高级协调阶段,其余10个城市仍处于初级协调阶段。未来,需注重城市间的差异性发展和重点扶持数字基础设施的投入建设。

数字经济与海洋经济高质量发展耦合协调分析

数字经济作为经济发展的新动能,为我国海洋经济实现高质量发展提供了新方向。构建数字经济与海洋经济高质量发展的评价指标体系,运用耦合协调模型和障碍因子模型,探究中国11个沿海省区市数字经济与海洋经济高质量发展耦合协调发展现状及其障碍因子。结果发现:①2011—2020年沿海地区数字经济和海洋经济高质量发展的综合发展水平及耦合协调度均呈现上升趋势,其中数字经济发展迅猛,海洋经济发展稳中向好,耦合系统从整体失调状态发展到整体良好耦合协调状态;②沿海各省区市耦合协调度均有不同程度的提升,耦合协调状态空间差异逐渐减小,2020年9个省区市均发展到基本协调状态以上,其中广东处于高度耦合协调状态;③通过障碍度诊断发现,数字经济障碍度具有“数字基础设施>数字产业化>产业数字化”的特征,海洋经济高质量发展层面具有“海洋科技创新>海洋社会效益>海洋经济效益>海洋资源环境”的特征。

数字经济、生态保护与城乡融合发展的耦合协调效应——来自省域面板数据的实证检验

数字经济-生态保护-城乡融合发展的耦合协调效应是检视经济与社会高质量发展的重要维度。基于2011-2021年中国省域面板数据,采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、探索性空间数据分析法以及灰色关联度模型,探究三者耦合协调发展的时空分异特征和驱动因素。研究结果表明:三个子系统的评价指数存在一定差异,城乡融合发展最高,生态保护居中,数字经济最低;从时间上看,研究期内三大系统的耦合协调度在低水平段位呈上升状态;从空间上看,三大系统耦合协调度表现为“东部>中部>西部”,且存在显著的正向空间自相关特征,局部空间自相关类型以“高-高”和“低-低”集聚为主;作为制约三大系统耦合协调发展的重要因素,产业结构、人口素质、经济驱动、政府调控、科技支撑的驱动效果依次递减。因此,要制定差异化区域协调发展战略,建构跨区域协作机制,实现数字经济、生态保护与城乡融合发展的互构式发展。

粤港澳大湾区“四链”融合发展评价探索性研究:基于耦合协调度与灰色关联度的分析

面对当前要素驱动向创新驱动转型的现实发展需求,粤港澳大湾区已初步构筑起创新链、产业链、资金链、人才链“四链”深度融合的基础生态,但融合的状态、水平和层次都存在可以优化提升的空间。文章采用耦合协调度与灰色关联度对粤港澳大湾区“四链”融合发展水平进行实证分析,研究发现:“创新—产业—资金—人才”四个子链已逐渐从低水平均衡向高水平均衡过渡,从极度不协调发展向高度协调状态过渡发展。“创新链—产业链”子系统耦合对整体“四链”融合水平贡献度最高。