Towards Production and Energy Coupling System Modeling and Simulation for Energy Optimization in the Process Industry

The production and energy coupling system is used to mainly present energy flow, material flow, information flow, and their coupling interaction. Through the modeling and simulation of this system, the performance of energy flow can be analyzed and optimized in the process industry. In order to study this system, the component based hybrid Petri net methodology (CpnHPN) is proposed, synthesizing a number of extended Petri net methods and using the concept of energy place, material place, and information place. Through the interface place in CpnHPN, the component based encapsulation is established, which enables the production and energy coupling system to be built, analyzed, and optimized on the multi-level framework. Considering the block and brief simulation for hybrid system, the CpnHPN model is simulated with Simulink/Stateflow. To illustrate the use of the proposed methodology, the application of CpnHPN in the energy optimization of chlorine balance system is provided.

Modeling Hydrothermal Transfer Processes in Permafrost Regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China

Hydrothermal processes are key components in permafrost dynamics; these processes are integral to global wanning. In this study the coupled heat and mass transfer model for （CoupModel） the soil-plant-atmosphere-system is applied in high-altitude permafrost regions and to model hydrothermal transfer processes in freeze-thaw cycles. Measured meteorological forcing and soil and vegetation properties are used in the CoupModel for the period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2012 at the Tanggula observation site in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A 24-h time step is used in the model simulation. The results show that the simulated soil temperature and water content, as well as the frozen depth compare well with the measured data. The coefficient of determination （R2） is 0.97 for the mean soil temperature and 0.73 for the mean soil water content, respectively. The simulated soil heat flux at a depth of 0-20 cm is also consistent with the monitored data. An analysis is performed on the simulated hydrothermal transfer processes from the deep soil layer to the upper one during the freezing and thawing period. At the beginning of the freezing period, the water in the deep soil layer moves upward to the freezing front and releases heat during the freezing process. When the soil layer is completely frozen, there are no vertical water ex- changes between the soil layers, and the heat exchange process is controlled by the vertical soil temperature gradient. During the thaw- ing period, the downward heat process becomes more active due to increased incoming shortwave radiation at the ground surface. The melt water is quickly dissolved in the soil, and the soil water movement only changes in the shallow soil layer. Subsequently, the model was used to provide an evaluation of the potential response of the active layer to different scenarios of initial water content and climate warming at the Tanggula site. The results reveal that the soil water content and the organic layer provide protection against active layer deepening in summer, so climate warming will cause the permafrost active layer to become deeoer and permafrost degradation.

COUPLING MODEL OF TWO PHASE FLOW IN A FRACTURE-ROCK MATRIX SYSTEM AND ITS STOCHASTIC FEATURE ANALYSIS

This study is concerned with developing a two-dimensional two-phase model that simulate the movement of non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) in a fracture-rock matrix system. The intrinsic permeability and the fracture aperture are represented in the model via its KarhunenLoeve expansion. Other parameters and the nodal unknowns, water saturations and water pressures, are represented by their stochastic spectral expansions. The errors resulting from truncation of Karhunen - Loeve and polynomial chaos expansions to a finite number of terms are analyzed. The eigenvalues of stochastic process is found out for any point in the special domain of the problem at any instant in time.

Climate Simulations Based on a Different-GridNested and Coupled Model

An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Cir culation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics / State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/ LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. AVIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/ LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having lon gitude 7.5?and latitude 4.5? the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5?by 1.5?to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15 years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis.Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteris tics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simu lated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.

Numerical Modelling for Dynamic Instability Process of Submarine Soft Clay Slopes Under Seismic Loading

Marine geological disasters occurred frequently in the deep-water slope area of the northern South China Sea,especially submarine landslides,which caused serious damage to marine facilities.The cyclic elastoplastic model that can describe the cyclic stress-strain response characteristic for soft clay,is embedded into the coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian(CEL)algorithm of ABAQUS by means of subroutine interface technology.On the basis of CEL technique and undrained cyclic elastoplastic model,a method for analyzing the dynamic instability process of marine slopes under the action of earthquake load is developed.The rationality for cyclic elastoplastic constitutive model is validated by comparing its calculated results with those of von Mises model built in Abaqus.The dynamic instability process of slopes under different conditions are analyzed.The results indicate that the deformation accumulation of soft clay have a significant effect on the dynamic instability process of submarine slopes under earthquake loading.The cumulative deformation is taken into our model and this makes the calculated final deformation of the slope under earthquake load larger than the results of conventional numerical method.When different contact conditions are used for analysis,the smaller the friction coefficient is,the larger the deformation of slopes will be.A numerical analysis method that can both reflect the dynamic properties of soft clay and display the dynamic instability process of submarine landslide is proposed,which could visually predict the topographies of the previous and post failure for submarine slope.

Wave Hindcast for the Neighbouring Seas of Korea Based on Loosely Coupled Wave-Tide-Surge Model

A hindcast simulation of 75 typhoons and winter monsoons which affected the coastal areas of Korean Peninsula is performed by use of a third generation ocean wave prediction model, WAM-cycle 4 model, loosely coupled with a com-bined tide and surge model. Typhoon wind fields are derived from the planetary marine boundary layer model for effective neutral winds embedding the vortical storm wind from the parameterized Rankin vortex type model in the limited areas of the overall modeled region. The hindcasted results illustrate that significant wave heights (SWH) considering the wave-tide-surge coupled process are significantly different from the results via the decoupled case especially in the region of the estuaries of the Changjiang Estuary, The Hangzhou Bay, and the southwestern tip of Korean Peninsula. This extensive model simulation is the first attempt to investigate the strong wave-tide-surge interaction for the shallow depth area along the coasts of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea Continental shelf.

Multiple time scales of fluvial processes—theory and applications

Fluvial processes comprise water flow,sediment transport and bed evolution,which normally feature distinct time scales.The time scales of sediment transport and bed deformation relative to the flow essentially measure how fast sediment transport adapts to capacity region in line with local flow scenario and the bed deforms in comparison with the flow,which literally dictates if a capacity based and/or decoupled model is justified.This paper synthesizes the recently developed multiscale theory for sediment-laden flows over erodible bed,with bed load and suspended load transport,respectively.It is unravelled that bed load transport can adapt to capacity sufficiently rapidly even under highly unsteady flows and thus a capacity model is mostly applicable,whereas a non-capacity model is critical for suspended sediment because of the lower rate of adaptation to capacity.Physically coupled modelling is critical for fluvial processes characterized by rapid bed variation.Applications are outlined on very active bed load sediment transported by flash floods and landslide dam break floods.

A weakly coupled data assimilation system of a coupled physical–biological model for the northeastern South China Sea

A weakly coupled data assimilation system was established for a coupled physical–biological model for the northeastern South China Sea（NSCS）. The physical model used was the Regional Ocean Modeling System; the biological component was a seven-compartment nitrogen–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus ecosystem model; and the data assimilation method was Ensemble Optical Interpolation. To test the performance of the weakly coupled data assimilation system, two numerical experiments（i.e. control and assimilation runs） based on a process-oriented idealized case were conducted, and climatological SST was assimilated in the assimilation run. Only physical variables were adjusted in the weakly coupled data assimilation. The results showed that both the assimilated SST and other unassimilated physical variables had reasonable process responses. Due to the warmer SST observation, the water temperature（salinity） in the assimilation run increased（decreased） in coastal upwelling regions. Both the alongshore and bottom cross-shore currents were reduced, jointly demonstrating the weakening of the upwelling system. Meanwhile, ecosystem variables were also affected to some extent by the SST assimilation through the coupled model. For example, larger phytoplankton（chlorophyll） productivity was found in the upwelling region within the shallow layer due to the warmer waters in the assimilation run. Hence, the application of this data assimilation system could reasonably modify both physical and biological variables for the NSCS by SST assimilation.

A spatiotemporal 3D convolutional neural network model for ENSO predictions: A test case for the 2020/21 La Niña conditions

2020–22年间热带太平洋经历了持续性多年的拉尼娜事件,多数耦合模式都难以准确预测其演变过程,这为厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的实时预测带来了很大的挑战.同时,目前学术界对此次持续性双拉尼娜事件的发展仍缺乏合理的物理解释,其所涉及的物理过程和机制有待于进一步分析.本研究利用再分析数据产品分析了热带东南太平洋东南风异常及其引起的次表层海温异常在此次热带太平洋海表温度(SST)异常演变中的作用,并构建了一个时空分离(Time-Space)的三维(3D)卷积神经网络模型(TS-3DCNN)对此次双拉尼娜事件进行实时预测和过程分析.通过将TS-3DCNN与中国科学院海洋研究所(IOCAS)中等复杂程度海气耦合模式(IOCAS ICM)的预测结果对比,表明TS-3DCNN模型对2020–22年双重拉尼娜现象的预测能力与IOCAS ICM相当,二者均能够从2021年初的初始场开始较好地预测2021年末El Niño3.4区SST的演变.此外,基于TS-3DCNN和IOCAS ICM的敏感性试验也验证了赤道外风场异常和次表层海温异常在2021年末赤道中东太平洋海表二次变冷过程中的关键作用.未来将神经网络与动力模式模式间的有效结合,进一步发展神经网络与物理过程相结合的混合建模是进一步提高ENSO事件预测能力的有效途径.

陆地高分辨率水文—生物地球化学过程CNMM-DNDC三维模型的研发及应用进展

CNMM-DNDC模型是本文作者团队研发的陆地高分辨率水文—生物地球化学过程三维模型。本文系统介绍了建模背景和理念、核心过程和模型特点、模拟功能和观测验证、多尺度区域或流域初步应用以及未来发展展望。自2018年刊发首个版本以来,该模型经过了多方面科学过程改进和模拟功能扩展,在元素化学反应、物质相变和机械迁移等基本物理、化学、生物过程层面,完成了对陆地表层系统碳氮磷水循环全耦合的精细刻画。迄今开展的观测验证表明,CNMM-DNDC模型基本普适于不同生物气候带(从热带到寒区多年冻土地带)的流域或区域长时间序列“三高”(时间、空间和过程高分辨率)综合模拟,实现对陆地生态系统的碳、氮、磷、水三维运移、水土流失、水力驱动溶解态和颗粒态碳氮磷横向迁移、碳氮温室气体和污染气体排放、生态系统生产力、水分蒸散发和水分能量平衡等众多可持续发展目标表征变量的预测。该模型广泛推广应用于多尺度区域或流域的复杂过程虚拟科学试验研究和服务于面向生态环境建设与减污降碳的优化调控决策,可望为协同落实联合国多个可持续发展目标提供先进的数值模拟技术支撑。

Stochastic Analysis of Interconnect Delay in the Presence of Process Variations

Process variations can reduce the accuracy in estimation of interconnect performance. This work presents a process variation based stochastic model and proposes an effective analytical method to estimate interconnect delay. The technique decouples the stochastic interconnect segments by an improved decoupling method. Combined with a polynomial chaos expression （PCE）, this paper applies the stochastic Galerkin method （SGM） to analyze the system response. A finite representation of interconnect delay is then obtained with the complex approximation method and the bisection method. Results from the analysis match well with those from SPICE. Moreover, the method shows good computational efficiency, as the running time is much less than the SPICE simulation＇s.

图网络在线异常检测跨域耦合模型优化方法

图网络在线异常检测模型在导弹系统网络通信模式监控、雷达系统恶意攻击识别,以及战机控制系统网络活动监测等应用领域中发挥着至关重要的作用。该检测模型将图谱域信号处理模型与时域检测模型相耦合,其高阶非线性处理过程给以高精度检测为导向的跨域耦合异常检测的模型优化带来了巨大挑战。针对此问题,提出了一种图网络在线异常检测跨域耦合模型优化方法。该方法关注高阶非线性跨域耦合检测模型处理信号空时相关性,通过对图网络跨域耦合模型处理信号统计特性的精细推导,揭示该检测模型的空时耦合机理及耦合过程对检测性能的影响,为模型中关键参数的选择提供了依据,弥补了该领域以往仅依赖简化模型和经验进行参数选择的不足。仿真及外场试验结果表明:所提模型优化方法在确保图网络异常检测稳健性的同时,显著提高了检测准确率。

Processing Modflow模型在预测地面沉降中的应用

研究目的:针对开采地下水引起的区域地面沉降对线性工程的影响问题,以京津城际铁路为例,采用地下水三维渗流与地面沉降耦合模型计算软件—Processing Modflow,选择沿线地面沉降较严重区段,建立区域地下水流场与地面沉降的耦合模型,运用参数修正后的模型,进行地面沉降预测。研究结论:利用实测地面沉降值对模型进行验证,沉降中心位置及沉降量的模拟结果与实测结果基本吻合;设计不同的地下水开采方案,利用模型预测地面沉降,结果表明:合理压采地下水可以降低地面沉降量及沉降坡度,减缓地面沉降的不均匀性。

江西丘陵山区公路地质灾害危险性评价多耦合模型对比研究

山区公路沿线地质灾害发育,影响山区城镇居民交通出行和生命财产安全。危险性评价可以综合分析地质灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子的贡献特征,对于公路防灾减灾具有重要的指导作用。以江西省S223省道竹头坑子—渠坎下段为例,基于频率比(frequency ratio,FR),耦合熵指数(entropy index,EI)、层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)及二者组合权(EI-AHP),构建4种地质灾害危险性评价模型;针对公路沿线地质环境与地质灾害发育特征,选取自然坡度、坡向、地形起伏度、坡面形态、切坡高度、切坡坡度、地层岩性、断层与斜坡的关系等8个评价因子作为危险性评价指标,以斜坡单元作为评价单元,采用FR量化评价因子,结合AHP、EI计算评价因子的主客观权重,依托ArcGIS平台得到基于FR的多耦合模型,绘制不同评价模型的公路沿线地质灾害危险性分区图。结果表明:FR、EI-FR、AHP-FR及EI-AHP-FR 4个评价模型的AUC值分别为0.746,0.811,0.836,0.833,表明AHP-FR评价模型的预测精度最高,能有效对公路沿线地质灾害进行危险性评价;最终划分江西省S223省道竹头坑子—渠坎下段高危险区、较高危险区、中危险区、较低危险区、低危险区的面积依次为0.295,0.570,1.509,0.354,1.732 km^(2),分别占全区总面积的6.66%、12.79%、33.86%、7.97%、38.71%。研究结果可为公路的安全建设和正常运营提供科学的地质参考依据。

基于城市排水过程的内涝高效模拟方法

从实际城市排水过程的角度出发,提出了基于汇水单元概念的城市内涝高效模拟方法.该方法以雨篦子作为出水口来划分汇水单元,进而计算城市地表产汇流、积水深度及分布.同时,引入了当量宽度的概念,实现了明渠与有压流2种状态下管道流量和水位计算方法的统一.基于水量平衡原理,利用雨篦子耦合城市地表与地下管网,并结合孔口耦合管道与河道,构建了地表-管道-河道一体化的求解矩阵.本文将所提出的模拟方法植入成熟的太湖流域模型,并应用常州市城市产汇流与内涝试验基地的监测数据,对该方法的有效性和模型的可靠性进行了评估,以期为城市内涝模拟提供新思路.

Processing Modflow在基坑疏干抽排水中的应用

以天津某基坑为研究对象,采用Processing Modflow数值模拟软件建立了地下水三维渗流与地面沉降耦合模型。模拟了基坑疏干抽排水在完成支护、止水帷幕施工条件下其周边地下水位和地面沉降的实时变化：即由于疏干抽排水引起的基坑周边约80 m内地下水水位降幅在0.90~82.15 cm之间,约80 m内地面沉降量在0.001~26.21 mm之间。模拟结果与后期监测数据吻合较好,能够较为真实的反映降水过程对周边环境的影响。

基于改进ISM-FRAM-AHP的有限空间作业过程风险防控

为解决有限空间作业过程多层次、多环节、多功能交互关系模糊和不良耦合影响的问题,引入功能共振分析模型(FRAM),结合解释结构模型(ISM)和层次分析法(AHP)优化改进层次结构和判断方式,通过划分风险层次结构,将系统功能耦合变异性的影响进行定量化,并计算功能单元和层级结构的重要度,通过功能可变性和耦合损失度结果,确定上下游功能变化输入输出表型,理清系统功能要素间耦合作用影响机制。结果表明:应用基于改进ISM-FRAM-AHP的有限空间作业过程风险防控模型,能够得到23个功能单元和10层风险层级功能网络;功能可变性数值和耦合损失度最大值为4.36(外部环境F_(23))和0.8084(制定作业方案F_(2)),作业安全风险程度较高,功能变化主要表现为顺序、目标和控制,针对8条失效链路设置物理、象征、功能、隐形4种有效屏障措施。

区间过程激励下刚柔耦合系统动态不确定性分析的序列模拟方法

针对动态不确定性激励作用下的刚柔耦合系统动力学问题,提出了一种基于区间过程模型的动力学不确定性序列模拟方法,旨在通过区间过程序列抽样及刚柔耦合动力学序列模拟计算结构振动与机构运动等系统动态响应的上下边界。介绍了中心刚体柔性梁刚柔耦合系统动力学方程的构建与数值求解方法。针对动态不确定性激励作用下的刚柔耦合系统动力学分析,引入区间过程模型及其区间K-L展开对动态不确定性进行了度量和高效表征,提出了一种求解系统机构运动与结构振动等动力学响应上下边界的序列模拟方法。该方法利用序列模拟策略识别当前模拟序列中对动态响应上边界或下边界具有贡献的区间过程参数样本集,作为下一模拟序列中的局部加密抽样中心,可有效避免直接蒙特卡罗模拟在计算动力学响应上下边界时因过多无效抽样模拟而导致的低效收敛问题。最后,通过三个算例对所提方法的有效性进行了验证。研究结果表明,对于刚柔耦合系统大范围运动及振动响应上下边界的求解,序列模拟方法相比于直接蒙特卡罗模拟方法具有更好的计算效率和计算精度。

基于协同优化的耐压柱壳多学科多目标优化

为提高耐压柱壳的设计效率和结构性能,本文基于多学科设计优化思想,进行了耐压柱壳多学科设计优化的学科分解,确定了耐压柱壳多学科优化设计的设计参数,明确了设计变量间的耦合关系,设计了耐压柱壳参数化分析流程,进行了设计变量灵敏度分析。在利用响应面模型建立了具有较高拟合精度耐压柱壳近似模型的基础上,以质量排水量比和极限载荷为目标函数,建立了基于协同优化方法的耐压柱壳多学科多目标优化模型,在确定了系统层和学科层的优化求解方法基础上,设计了基于协同优化的耐压柱壳多学科多目标优化框架,进行了优化的求解工作,得到了优化方案。与初始方案的对比表明:所得到的Pareto解集中,部分方案在2个目标函数上均得到了优化,验证了优化框架的有效性。