ON THE OPTIMAL BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCES: DIFFERENT SCALE ERRORS' CONTRIBUTION

The large-scale and small-scale errors could affect background error covariances for a regional numerical model with the specified grid resolution.Based on the different background error covariances influenced by different scale errors,this study tries to construct a so-called"optimal background error covariances"to consider the interactions among different scale errors.For this purpose,a linear combination of the forecast differences influenced by information of errors at different scales is used to construct the new forecast differences for estimating optimal background error covariances.By adjusting the relative weight of the forecast differences influenced by information of smaller-scale errors,the relative influence of different scale errors on optimal background error covariances can be changed.For a heavy rainfall case,the corresponding optimal background error covariances can be estimated through choosing proper weighting factor for forecast differences influenced by information of smaller-scale errors.The data assimilation and forecast with these optimal covariances show that,the corresponding analyses and forecasts can lead to superior quality,compared with those using covariances that just introduce influences of larger-or smallerscale errors.Due to the interactions among different scale errors included in optimal background error covariances,relevant analysis increments can properly describe weather systems(processes)at different scales,such as dynamic lifting,thermodynamic instability and advection of moisture at large scale,high-level and low-level jet at synoptic scale,and convective systems at mesoscale and small scale,as well as their interactions.As a result,the corresponding forecasts can be improved.

Improvement in Background Error Covariances Using Ensemble Forecasts for Assimilation of High-Resolution Satellite Data

Satellite data obtained over synoptic data-sparse regions such as an ocean contribute toward improving the quality of the initial state of limited-area models. Background error covariances are crucial to the proper distribution of satellite-observed information in variational data assimilation. In the NMC （National Meteorological Center） method, background error covariances are underestimated over data-sparse regions such as an ocean because of small differences between different forecast times. Thus, it is necessary to reconstruct and tune the background error covariances so as to maximize the usefulness of the satellite data for the initial state of limited-area models, especially over an ocean where there is a lack of conventional data. In this study, we attempted to estimate background error covariances so as to provide adequate error statistics for data-sparse regions by using ensemble forecasts of optimal perturbations using bred vectors. The background error covariances estimated by the ensemble method reduced the overestimation of error amplitude obtained by the NMC method. By employing an appropriate horizontal length scale to exclude spurious correlations, the ensemble method produced better results than the NMC method in the assimilation of retrieved satellite data. Because the ensemble method distributes observed information over a limited local area, it would be more useful in the analysis of high-resolution satellite data. Accordingly, the performance of forecast models can be improved over the area where the satellite data are assimilated.

Representations of Inverse Covariances by Differential Operators

In the cost function of three- or four-dimensional variational dataassimilation, each term is weighted by the inverse of its associated error covariance matrix and thebackground error covariance matrix is usually much larger than the other covariance matrices.Although the background error covariances are traditionally normalized and parameterized by simplesmooth homogeneous correlation functions, the covariance matrices constructed from these correlationfunctions are often too large to be inverted or even manipulated. It is thus desirable to finddirect representations of the inverses of background error correlations. This problem is studied inthis paper. In particular, it is shown that the background term can be written into ∫ dx∣Dυ(x)∣~2, that is, a squared 1/2 norm of a vector differential operator D, called theD-operator, applied to the field of analysis increment υ(x). For autoregressive correlationfunctions, the D-operators are of finite orders. For Gaussian correlation functions, the D-operatorsare of infinite order. For practical applications, the Gaussian D-operators must be truncated tofinite orders. The truncation errors are found to be small even when the Gaussian D-operators aretruncated to low orders. With a truncated D-operator, the background term can be easily constructedwith neither inversion nor direct calculation of the covariance matrix. D-operators are also derivedfor non-Gaussian correlations and transformed into non-isotropic forms.

A COMPARISON BETWEEN TWO ROBUST REGRESSION ESTIMATORS BY MEANS OF ROBUST COVARIANCES

Abstract Two classes of Mallows GM estimators with invariance are considered in the stochastic linear regression model. Some of their asymptotic properties are described, and the fitted value influence and variance components are compared by means of robust covariances.

Impact of Sky Conditions on Net Ecosystem Productivity over a “Floating Blanket” Wetland in Southwest China

Based on eddy covariance(EC) measurements during 2016–20, the effects of sky conditions on the net ecosystem productivity(NEP) over a subtropical “floating blanket ” wetland were investigated. Sky conditions were divided into overcast, cloudy, and sunny conditions. On the half-hourly timescale, the daytime NEP responded more rapidly to the changes in the total photosynthetic active radiation(PARt) under overcast and cloudy skies than that under sunny skies. The increase in the apparent quantum yield under overcast and cloudy conditions was the greatest in spring and the least in summer. Additionally, lower atmospheric vapor pressure deficit(VPD) and moderate air temperature were more conducive to enhancing the apparent quantum yield under cloudy skies. On the daily timescale, NEP and the gross primary production(GPP) were higher under cloudy or sunny conditions than those under overcast conditions across seasons. The daily NEP and GPP during the wet season peaked under cloudy skies. The daily ecosystem light use efficiency(LUE) and water use efficiency(WUE) during the wet season also changed with sky conditions and reached their maximum under overcast and cloudy skies, respectively. The diffuse photosynthetic active radiation(PAR_d) and air temperature were primarily responsible for the variation of daily NEP from half-hourly to monthly timescales, and the direct photosynthetic active radiation(PAR_b) had a secondary effect on NEP. Under sunny conditions, PAR_b and air temperature were the dominant factors controlling daily NEP. While daily NEP was mainly controlled by PAR_d under cloudy and overcast conditions.

Human Gait Recognition for Biometrics Application Based on Deep Learning Fusion Assisted Framework

The demand for a non-contact biometric approach for candidate identification has grown over the past ten years.Based on the most important biometric application,human gait analysis is a significant research topic in computer vision.Researchers have paid a lot of attention to gait recognition,specifically the identification of people based on their walking patterns,due to its potential to correctly identify people far away.Gait recognition systems have been used in a variety of applications,including security,medical examinations,identity management,and access control.These systems require a complex combination of technical,operational,and definitional considerations.The employment of gait recognition techniques and technologies has produced a number of beneficial and well-liked applications.Thiswork proposes a novel deep learning-based framework for human gait classification in video sequences.This framework’smain challenge is improving the accuracy of accuracy gait classification under varying conditions,such as carrying a bag and changing clothes.The proposed method’s first step is selecting two pre-trained deep learningmodels and training fromscratch using deep transfer learning.Next,deepmodels have been trained using static hyperparameters;however,the learning rate is calculated using the particle swarmoptimization(PSO)algorithm.Then,the best features are selected from both trained models using the Harris Hawks controlled Sine-Cosine optimization algorithm.This algorithm chooses the best features,combined in a novel correlation-based fusion technique.Finally,the fused best features are categorized using medium,bi-layer,and tri-layered neural networks.On the publicly accessible dataset known as the CASIA-B dataset,the experimental process of the suggested technique was carried out,and an improved accuracy of 94.14% was achieved.The achieved accuracy of the proposed method is improved by the recent state-of-the-art techniques that show the significance of this work.

Data-Based Filters for Non-Gaussian Dynamic Systems With Unknown Output Noise Covariance

This paper proposes linear and nonlinear filters for a non-Gaussian dynamic system with an unknown nominal covariance of the output noise.The challenge of designing a suitable filter in the presence of an unknown covariance matrix is addressed by focusing on the output data set of the system.Considering that data generated from a Gaussian distribution exhibit ellipsoidal scattering,we first propose the weighted sum of norms(SON)clustering method that prioritizes nearby points,reduces distant point influence,and lowers computational cost.Then,by introducing the weighted maximum likelihood,we propose a semi-definite program(SDP)to detect outliers and reduce their impacts on each cluster.Detecting these weights paves the way to obtain an appropriate covariance of the output noise.Next,two filtering approaches are presented:a cluster-based robust linear filter using the maximum a posterior(MAP)estimation and a clusterbased robust nonlinear filter assuming that output noise distribution stems from some Gaussian noise resources according to the ellipsoidal clusters.At last,simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed filtering approaches.

Low-Complexity Reconstruction of Covariance Matrix in Hybrid Uniform Circular Array

Spatial covariance matrix(SCM) is essential in many multi-antenna systems such as massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO). For multi-antenna systems operating at millimeter-wave bands, hybrid analog-digital structure has been widely adopted to reduce the cost of radio frequency chains.In this situation, signals received at the antennas are unavailable to the digital receiver, and as a consequence, traditional sample average approach cannot be used for SCM reconstruction in hybrid multi-antenna systems. To address this issue, beam sweeping algorithm(BSA) which can reconstruct the SCM effectively for a hybrid uniform linear array, has been proposed in our previous works. However, direct extension of BSA to a hybrid uniform circular array(UCA)will result in a huge computational burden. To this end, a low-complexity approach is proposed in this paper. By exploiting the symmetry features of SCM for the UCA, the number of unknowns can be reduced significantly and thus the complexity of reconstruction can be saved accordingly. Furthermore, an insightful analysis is also presented in this paper, showing that the reduction of the number of unknowns can also improve the accuracy of the reconstructed SCM. Simulation results are also shown to demonstrate the proposed approach.

CL2ES-KDBC:A Novel Covariance Embedded Selection Based on Kernel Distributed Bayes Classifier for Detection of Cyber-Attacks in IoT Systems

The Internet of Things(IoT)is a growing technology that allows the sharing of data with other devices across wireless networks.Specifically,IoT systems are vulnerable to cyberattacks due to its opennes The proposed work intends to implement a new security framework for detecting the most specific and harmful intrusions in IoT networks.In this framework,a Covariance Linear Learning Embedding Selection(CL2ES)methodology is used at first to extract the features highly associated with the IoT intrusions.Then,the Kernel Distributed Bayes Classifier(KDBC)is created to forecast attacks based on the probability distribution value precisely.In addition,a unique Mongolian Gazellas Optimization(MGO)algorithm is used to optimize the weight value for the learning of the classifier.The effectiveness of the proposed CL2ES-KDBC framework has been assessed using several IoT cyber-attack datasets,The obtained results are then compared with current classification methods regarding accuracy(97%),precision(96.5%),and other factors.Computational analysis of the CL2ES-KDBC system on IoT intrusion datasets is performed,which provides valuable insight into its performance,efficiency,and suitability for securing IoT networks.

A Cautionary Note on the Application of GIS in Spatial Optimization Modeling

Spatial optimization as part of spatial modeling has been facilitated significantly by integration with GIS techniques. However, for certain research topics, applying standard GIS techniques may create problems which require attention. This paper serves as a cautionary note to demonstrate two problems associated with applying GIS in spatial optimization, using a capacitated p-median facility location optimization problem as an example. The first problem involves errors in interpolating spatial variations of travel costs from using kriging, a common set of techniques for raster files. The second problem is inaccuracy in routing performed on a graph directly created from polyline shapefiles, a common vector file type. While revealing these problems, the paper also suggests remedies. Specifically, interpolation errors can be eliminated by using agent-based spatial modeling while the inaccuracy in routing can be improved through altering the graph topology by splitting the long edges of the shapefile. These issues suggest the need for caution in applying GIS in spatial optimization study.

Optimal Estimation of High-Dimensional Covariance Matrices with Missing and Noisy Data

The estimation of covariance matrices is very important in many fields, such as statistics. In real applications, data are frequently influenced by high dimensions and noise. However, most relevant studies are based on complete data. This paper studies the optimal estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices based on missing and noisy sample under the norm. First, the model with sub-Gaussian additive noise is presented. The generalized sample covariance is then modified to define a hard thresholding estimator , and the minimax upper bound is derived. After that, the minimax lower bound is derived, and it is concluded that the estimator presented in this article is rate-optimal. Finally, numerical simulation analysis is performed. The result shows that for missing samples with sub-Gaussian noise, if the true covariance matrix is sparse, the hard thresholding estimator outperforms the traditional estimate method.

Improved Units of Measure in Rotational Mechanics

The SI system of units in rotational mechanics yields correct numerical results, but it produces physically incorrect units of measure in many cases. SI units also violate the principle of general covariance—the general rule for defining continuous coordinates and units in mathematics and mathematical physics. After 30+ years of wrestling with these problems, the ultimate authority on units of measure has declared that Newton–meter and Joule are not equivalent in rotational mechanics, as they are in the rest of physics. This article proposes a simple modification to SI units called “Nonstandard International units” (“NI units”) until a better name is agreed upon. NI units yield correct numerical results and physically correct units of measure, and they satisfy the principle of general covariance. The main obstacle to the adoption of NI units is the consensus among users that the radius of rotation should have the unit meter because the radius can be measured with a ruler. NI units assigned to radius should have units meter/radian because the radius is a conversion factor between angular size and circumferential length, as in arclength = rθ. To manage the social consensus behind SI units, the author recommends retaining SI units as they are, and informing users who want correct units that NI units solve the technical problems of SI units.

Covariances of Linear Stochastic Differential Equations for Analyzing Computer Networks

Analyses of dynamic systems with random oscillations need to calculate the system covariance matrix, but this is not easy even in the linear case if the random term is not a Gaussian white noise. A universal method is developed here to handle both Gaussian and compound Poisson white noise. The quadratic variations are analyzed to transform the problem into a Lyapunov matrix differential equation. Explicit formulas are then derived by vectorization. These formulas are applied to a simple model of flows and queuing in a computer network. A stability analysis of the mean value illustrates the effects of oscillations in a real system. The relationships between the oscillations and the parameters are clearly presented to improve designs of real systems.

High-fat diet and oral infection induced type 2 diabetes and obesity development under different genetic backgrounds

Background:Type 2 diabetes(T2D)is an adult-onset and obese form of diabetes caused by an interplay between genetic,epigenetic,and environmental components.Here,we have assessed a cohort of 11 genetically different collaborative cross(CC)mouse lines comprised of both sexes for T2D and obesity developments in response to oral infection and high-fat diet(HFD)challenges.Methods:Mice were fed with either the HFD or the standard chow diet(control group)for 12 weeks starting at the age of 8 weeks.At week 5 of the experiment,half of the mice of each diet group were infected with Porphyromonas gingivalis and Fusobacterium nucleatum bacteria strains.Throughout the 12-week experimental period,body weight(BW)was recorded biweekly,and intraperitoneal glucose tolerance tests were performed at weeks 6 and 12 of the experiment to evaluate the glucose tolerance status of mice.Results:Statistical analysis has shown the significance of phenotypic variations between the CC lines,which have different genetic backgrounds and sex effects in different experimental groups.The heritability of the studied phenotypes was estimated and ranged between 0.45 and 0.85.We applied machine learning methods to make an early call for T2D and its prognosis.The results showed that classification with random forest could reach the highest accuracy classification(ACC=0.91)when all the attributes were used.Conclusion:Using sex,diet,infection status,initial BW,and area under the curve(AUC)at week 6,we could classify the final phenotypes/outcomes at the end stage of the experiment(at 12 weeks).

Measurement of^(134)Xe(n,2n)^(133m),gXe reaction cross sections in 14‑MeV region with detailed uncertainty quantification

A lead-shielded HPGe detector and offlineγ-ray spectra of the residual product were used to measure the cross section(CS)and ratios of isomeric CS(σm/σg)in^(134)Xe(n,2n)^(133m),gXe reactions at different energies(13.5 MeV,13.8 MeV,14.1 MeV,14.4 MeV,14.8 MeV)relative to the^(93)Nb(n,2n)^(92)mNb reaction CS.The target was high-purity natural Xe gas under high pressure.The T(d,n)4He reaction produces neutrons.TALYS code(version 1.95)for nuclear reactions was used for calculations,with default parameters and nuclear level density models.The uncertainties in the measured CS data were thoroughly analyzed using the covariance analysis method.The results were compared with theoretical values,evaluation data,and previous experimental findings.CS data of the 134Xe(n,2n)133mXe and 134Xe(n,2n)133gXe reactions and the corresponding isomeric CS ratios at 13.5 MeV,13.8 MeV,and 14.1 MeV neutron energies are reported for the first time.This research advances our knowledge of pre-equilibrium emission in the(n,2n)reaction channel by resolving inconsistencies in the Xe data.

Degree of style coiling is associated with corolla-tube length in the nectarless flowers of Roscoea schneideriana

The plant-pollinator‘arms race’model posits that a major driver of the evolution of elongated corollas in flowers is reciprocal selection for‘morphological fit’between pollinator-tongue length and access distance to nectar(usually corolla-tube length).Evidence for the pollinator-mediated selection on tube length and evolution of multiple,correlated floral traits remains inconclusive.To gain possible insights into the strength of stabilizing selection by assessing standing phenotypic variation,we measured a series of functionally important floral traits,including corolla tube length and‘effective’tube depth and degree of style coiling.We then calculated coefficients of variation(CV)for these traits in three field populations of R.schneideriana.Unlike in most long-tubed flowers,the bottom part of the corolla tube is completely occupied by the style,with no room for nectar.The length of this portion of the corolla tube was more variable(higher CV)than the upper part of the corolla tube,suggesting that functional tube depth was under stronger stabilizing selection.The degree of style coiling was negatively related to the corolla-tube length in all three populations of R.schneideriana,suggesting that there may be conflicting selection acting on style length and corolla-tube length,which are otherwise usually tightly correlated.Given the lack of nectar in the flowers of this species,the long corolla tubes and long styles may represent morphological holdovers from ancestors that were pollinated by long-tongued pollinators,as is still seen in related species in the western Himalayas.

Over-limit risk assessment method of integrated energy system considering source-load correlation

In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.

The study of geomagnetic jerk from 2010 to 2021 based on hourly mean data from global geomagnetic observatories

The secular variation in the global geomagnetic field was analyzed in terms of the annual differences in monthly means by using the hourly mean data from 18 foreign(outside China)observatories of the World Data Center(WDC)for Geomagnetism from January 2010 to January 2020 as well as 9 observatories in the Geomagnetic Network of China from January 2015 to April 2021.In addition,according to the correlation of noisy components from the observatories,a covariance matrix was constructed based on residuals between observations and the CHAOS-7.4 model to remove external contamination.Through a comparison before and after denoising,we found that the overall average standard deviations were reduced by 29.97%in China and by 41.4%outside China.Results showed the correlation coefficient between external noise(mainly the magnetosphere ring current)and the Dst index was 0.82,and the correlation coefficient between external noise and the Ring Current(RC)index reached 0.94.A geomagnetic jerk was globally discovered around 2018.0 on the geomagnetic eastward component Y.The jerk timing in China was around 2020.0,and the earliest one was in2018.75,whereas the timing outside China was around 2018.0,and the earliest one was in 2017.67.This 2-year lag may have been caused by the higher electrical conductivity of the deep mantle.After more data were added,this jerk event was found to occur in an orderly manner in the northern hemisphere as the longitude increased and the intensity gradually increased as well.The variations in location of the jerk center were analyzed according to the CHAOS-7.4 model.Results revealed six extreme points distributed nearby the equator.The strongest was near the equator,at 170°E,and the strength gradually decreased as it extended to the northern and southern hemispheres.Another extreme point with the opposite sign was located at the equator,at 20°W,in the south-central part of the Atlantic,and the strength gradually decreased as it extended into Europe.The covariance matrix method can be used to analyze data from the Macao Science Satellite-1 mission in the future,and this method is expected to play a positive role in modeling and separating the large-scale external field.

Level density of odd-A nuclei at saddle point

Based on the covariant density functional theory,by employing the core–quasiparticle coupling(CQC)model,the nuclear level density of odd-A nuclei at the saddle point is achieved.The total level density is calculated via the convolution of the intrinsic level density and the collective level density.The intrinsic level densities are obtained in the finite-temperature covariant density functional theory,which takes into account the nuclear deformation and pairing self-consistently.For saddle points on the free energy surface in the(β_(2),γ)plane,the entropy and the associated intrinsic level density are compared with those of the global minima.By introducing a quasiparticle to the two neighboring even–even core nuclei,whose properties are determined by the five-dimensional collective Hamiltonian model,the collective levels of the odd-A nuclei are obtained via the CQC model.The total level densities of the^(234-240)U agree well with the available experimental data and Hilaire’s result.Furthermore,the ratio of the total level densities at the saddle points to those at the global minima and the ratio of the total level densities to the intrinsic level densities are discussed separately.

3-D Gait Identification Utilizing Latent Canonical Covariates Consisting of Gait Features

Biometric gait recognition is a lesser-known but emerging and effective biometric recognition method which enables subjects’walking patterns to be recognized.Existing research in this area has primarily focused on feature analysis through the extraction of individual features,which captures most of the information but fails to capture subtle variations in gait dynamics.Therefore,a novel feature taxonomy and an approach for deriving a relationship between a function of one set of gait features with another set are introduced.The gait features extracted from body halves divided by anatomical planes on vertical,horizontal,and diagonal axes are grouped to form canonical gait covariates.Canonical Correlation Analysis is utilized to measure the strength of association between the canonical covariates of gait.Thus,gait assessment and identification are enhancedwhenmore semantic information is available through CCA-basedmulti-feature fusion.Hence,CarnegieMellon University’s 3D gait database,which contains 32 gait samples taken at different paces,is utilized in analyzing gait characteristics.The performance of Linear Discriminant Analysis,K-Nearest Neighbors,Naive Bayes,Artificial Neural Networks,and Support Vector Machines was improved by a 4%average when the CCA-utilized gait identification approachwas used.Asignificant maximumaccuracy rate of 97.8%was achieved throughCCA-based gait identification.Beyond that,the rate of false identifications and unrecognized gaits went down to half,demonstrating state-of-the-art for gait identification.