Decadal Forecasts of Large Earthquakes along the Northern San Andreas Fault System, California: Increased Activity on Regional Creeping Faults Prior to Major and Great Events

The three largest earthquakes in northern California since 1849 were preceded by increased decadal activity for moderate-size shocks along surrounding nearby faults. Increased seismicity, double-difference precise locations of earthquakes since 1968, geodetic data and fault offsets for the 1906 great shock are used to re-examine the timing and locations of possible future large earthquakes. The physical mechanisms of regional faults like the Calaveras, Hayward and Sargent, which exhibit creep, differ from those of the northern San Andreas, which is currently locked and is not creeping. Much decadal forerunning activity occurred on creeping faults. Moderate-size earthquakes along those faults became more frequent as stresses in the region increased in the latter part of the cycle of stress restoration for major and great earthquakes along the San Andreas. They may be useful for decadal forecasts. Yearly to decadal forecasts, however, are based on only a few major to great events. Activity along closer faults like that in the two years prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta shock needs to be examined for possible yearly forerunning changes to large plate boundary earthquakes. Geodetic observations are needed to focus on identifying creeping faults close to the San Andreas. The distribution of moderate-size earthquakes increased significantly since 1990 along the Hayward fault but not adjacent to the San Andreas fault to the south of San Francisco compared to what took place in the decades prior to the three major historic earthquakes in the region. It is now clear from a re-examination of the 1989 mainshock that the increased level of moderate-size shocks in the one to two preceding decades occurred on nearby East Bay faults. Double-difference locations of small earthquakes provide structural information about faults in the region, especially their depths. The northern San Andreas fault is divided into several strongly coupled segments based on differences in seismicity.

Interactions of adjacent pulsating, erupting and creeping solitons

This paper investigates the adjacent interactions of three novel solitons for the quintic complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, which are plain pulsating, erupting and creeping solitons. It is found that different performances are presented for different solitons due to isolated regions of the parameter space where they exist. For example, plain pulsating and erupting solitons exhibit mutual annihilation during collisions with the decrease of total energy, but for creeping soliton, the two adjacent pulses present soliton fusion without any loss of energy. Otherwise, the method for restraining the interactions is also found and it can suppress interactions between these two adjacent pulses effectively.

Linear stability of plane creeping Couette flow for Burgers fluid

It is well known that plane creeping Couette flow of UCM and Oldroy-B fluids are linearly stable. However, for Burges fluid, which includes UCM and Oldroyd-B fluids as special cases, unstable modes are detected in the present work. The wave speed, critical parameters and perturbation mode are studied for neutral waves. Energy analysis shows that the sustaining of perturbation energy in Poiseuille flow and Couette flow is completely different. At low Reynolds number limit, analytical solutions are obtained for simpli- fied perturbation equations. The essential difference between Burgers fluid and Oldroyd-B fluid is revealed to be the fact that neutral mode exists only in the former.

SIMILARITY SOLUTIONS FOR CREEPING FLOW AND HEAT TRANSFER IN SECOND GRADE FLUID

The two dimensional equations of motions for the slowly flowing and heat transfer in second grade fluid are written in Cartesian coordinates neglecting the inertial terms. When the inertia terms are simply omitted from the equations of motions the resulting solutions are valid approximately for Re1. This fact can also be deduced from the dimensionless form of the momentum and energy equations. By employing Lie group analysis, the symmetries of the equations are calculated. The Lie algebra consists of four finite parameter and one infinite parameter Lie group transformations, one being the scaling symmetry and the others being translations. Two different types of solutions are found using the symmetries. Using translations in x and y coordinates, an exponential type of exact solution is presented. For the scaling symmetry, the outcoming ordinary differential equations are more involved and only a series type of approximate solution is presented. Finally, some boundary value problems are discussed.

ASYMPTOTIC ANALYSIS OF MODE Ⅱ STATIONARY GROWTH CRACK ON ELASTIC-ELASTIC POWER LAW CREEPING BIMATERIAL INTERFACE

A mechanical model was established for modeⅡinterfacial crack static growing along an elastic_elastic power law creeping bimaterial interface. For two kinds of boundary conditions on crack faces, traction free and frictional contact, asymptotic solutions of the stress and strain near tip_crack were given. Results derived indicate that the stress and strain have the same singularity, there is not the oscillatory singularity in the field; the creep power_hardening index n and the ratio of Young's module notably influence the crack_tip field in region of elastic power law creeping material and n only influences distribution of stresses and strains in region of elastic material. When n is bigger, the creeping deformation is dominant and stress fields become steady,which does not change with n. Poisson's ratio does not affect the distributing of the crack_tip field.

Impulse Creeping Streamer and Propagation Velocity in Vegetable and Mineral Oils with Pressboard Interface

This paper presents an experimental study on the creeping discharge propagating over the pressboard surface in two vegetable oils(PFAE(palm fatty acid ester)oil and CRS(crude rapeseed)oil)and commercial mineral oil under the quasi-square impulse voltage with any pulse width.The pressboard impregnated with the sample oil is immersed completely into the same oil.The tungsten needle electrode is installed in the pressboard surface with and without the counter electrode to generate a creeping discharge.The other side of pressboard has the thin copper rod as a back side electrode.A comparison of the shape and stopping length of positive and negative streamers,discharge current,emitted light signal,and temporal variation and velocity of streamer propagation is reported for all different oil-pressboard interfaces.It has been shown that the behavior of creeping streamers has unique characteristics and polarity effects,and the traveling mode and propagation velocity of streamers are greatly different depending on the type of oil.

MicroRNA396-mediated alteration in plant development and salinity stress response in creeping bentgrass

The conserved microRNA396(miR396)is involved in plant growth,development,and abiotic stress response in multiple plant species through regulating its targets,Growth Regulating Factor(GRF)transcription factor genes.However,the role of miR396 has not yet been characterized in perennial monocot species.In addition,the molecular mechanism of miR396-mediated abiotic stress response remains unclear.To elucidate the role of miR396 in perennial monocot species,we generated transgenic creeping bentgrass(Agrostis stolonifera)overexpressing Osa-miR396c,a rice miRNA396 gene.Transgenic plants exhibited altered development,including less shoot and root biomass,shorter internodes,smaller leaf area,fewer leaf veins,and epidermis cells per unit area than those of WT controls.In addition,transgenics showed enhanced salt tolerance associated with improved water retention,increased chlorophyll content,cell membrane integrity,and Na^(+)exclusion during high salinity exposure.Four potential targets of miR396 were identified in creeping bentgrass and up-regulated in response to salt stress.RNA-seq analysis indicates that miR396-mediated salt stress tolerance requires the coordination of stress-related functional proteins(antioxidant enzymes and Na+/H+antiporter)and regulatory proteins(transcription factors and protein kinases).This study establishes a miR396-associated molecular pathway to connect the upstream regulatory and downstream functional elements,and provides insight into the miRNA-mediated regulatory networks.

Growth and physiological effects of chitosan on heat tolerance in creeping bentgrass (Agrostis stolonifera)

High temperature is one of the major abiotic stresses limiting growth and development of cool-season grass species,but chitosan could effectively enhance heat tolerance and improve plant growth.The objective of this study was to determine the optimal concentration of chitosan that could alleviate heat stress in creeping bentgrass(Agrostis stolonifera)and investigate the effects of exogenous chitosan on photosynthesis and cell membrane stability under heat stress.Under heat stress(38/28°C,day/night),different chitosan concentrations of 0,50,100 and 500 mg·L−1 were applied on the leaves of creeping bentgrass(cv.'Penn-A4').Foliar application of chitosan exhibited the positive effects on plant growth and the optimal concentration was 100 mg·L−1 which significantly improved turf quality,root length,root-shoot ratio as well as shoot and root biomass.Chitosan-treated plants subjected to high temperature stress had a lower decline in photosynthetic rate and photochemical efficiency as well as less increase in electrolyte leakage and malondialdehyde content.The results demonstrate that chitosan-improved heat tolerance as reflected by the superior growth performance of both shoot and root,photosynthesis and cell membrane stability in creeping bentgrass under heat stress.

Design of the Miniature Electrode-feeding MechanismBased on Creeping Motion

This paper describes the creeping principle. Based on this principle, a pocket-sized electrode creep-feeding mechanism applied to electrical discharge machining(EDM) is designed. Features of the mechanism: the structure of two-layer parallel plate is employed as its moving pairs, and an integral structure is adoped in the design of the mechanism. This mechanism can drive an electrode by piezoelectric element in steps of order of nanometer (the minimum feeding step of 78nm).

Growth and physiological responses of creeping bentgrass(Agrostis stolonifera)to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations

The atmospheric carbon dioxide level has increased and is predicted to continue increasing,which may affect various aspects of plant growth.The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of doubling the carbon dioxide level on the growth and physiological activities of a widely utilized cool-season turfgrass species,creeping bentgrass(Agrostis stolonifera L.‘Penncross’).‘Penncross’plants were established in fritted clay medium and maintained under well-irrigated and well-fertilized conditions in growth chambers.The plants were exposed to either ambient carbon dioxide concentrations(400±10 mmol L^(-1))or elevated carbon dioxide concentrations(800±10 mmol L^(-1))for 12 weeks.Plants grown under elevated carbon dioxide displayed a significantly faster growth rate of their lateral stems(stolons)and increased shoot and root dry weight but a reduced specific leaf area compared to those plants at ambient carbon dioxide levels.Fast stolon growth is a highly desirable trait for turfgrass establishment and recovery from physical damage.The root length and surface area were also increased due to the elevated CO_(2),which may facilitate water uptake and serve critical drought-avoidance roles when irrigation water is limited.Elevated carbon dioxide caused an increase in the leaf net photosynthetic rate but a reduction in the stomatal conductance and transpiration rate,contributing to improved water use efficiency in creeping bentgrass.Efficient water use is especially important for turfgrass plant survival when irrigation water is limited.Our results suggested that cool-season turfgrass species may greatly benefit from increasingly elevated carbon dioxide concentrations via growth promotion and increasing water use efficiency.

Borehole Tilt Observations of Xiangshan Station, Beijing, and Effects of Tilt Due to Fault Creeping

An ASKANIA borehole tiltmeter which consists of a vertical pendulum with two degrees of freedom was installed in Xiangshan station,Beijing,in May 1989 in order to monitor the earthquake-reiated crustal deformations.The preliminary results indicate that the resolution of the instrument is better than 0.05 msec for tidal amplitudes.The daily total tidal amplitude is about 20 msec.The spectral analysis of the first four months data provides a signal-to-noise ratio of 】 100 for the main semi-diurnal waves.The non-tidal tilts for one year data are dominated by a long term drift with the rate of 0.9 msec/day for X-component and 1.1 msec/day for Y-component.In addition,the tilt observations are affected by meteorological factors,especially by rainfall.The results of modelings of the fault-creep related tilts and responses of tilts to earthquakes suggest that the tilt measurements are very sensitive to the change in tectonic strain and stress fields near the site where the tiltmeter is installed.The

Regulation of nutrient accumulation byγ-aminobutyric acid associated with GABA priming-enhanced heat tolerance in creeping bentgrass

γ-Aminobutyric acid(GABA)is known for its positive effects on improving plant stress tolerance,while the association of its role in regulating nutritional availability and GABA priming-enhanced heat tolerance is not well documented.The objective of this study was to determine whether GABA priming may improve heat tolerance in cool-season grass species involving regulation of plant nutrition for macronutrients and micronutrient elements.Plants of creeping bentgrass(Agrostis stolonifera)(cv.'Penncross')in each pot were treated with 10 mL of water(control)or 0.5 mM GABA(GABA priming)by foliar spray and then subjected to heat stress(35/30°C,day/night)or optimal growth temperature(control)(21/19°C,day/night)(non-stress control)for 30 d in growth chambers.GABA-primed plants had significantly higher endogenous GABA content associated with improved heat tolerance compared to non-treated plants,as reflected by higher leaf cell membrane stability,relative water content,osmotic adjustment,chlorophyll content,photochemical efficiency,and net photosynthetic rate.Plants pretreated with GABA exhibited significantly higher content of nitrogen(N),phosphorus(P),calcium(Ca),sodium(Na),and copper(Cu)but lower content of boron(B)and manganese(Mn)in leaves than non-treated plants under heat stress.The enhanced accumulation of N,P,Ca,Na,and Cu and restricted B and Mn accumulation by GABA priming indicate that GABA could modulate mineral nutrient availability in plants,contributing to improved heat tolerance for creeping bentgrass.

Glutamate acts as a repressor for heat-induced leaf senescence involving chlorophyll degradation and amino acid metabolism in creeping bentgrass

Leaf senescence is accelerated by prolonged exposure to high temperatures in cool-season plants and is characterized by loss of chlorophyll and adjustment in amino acid metabolism.The objectives of this study included ascertaining how glutamate may affect the tolerance of cool-season grass species to heat stress in relation to leaf senescence through the regulation of leaf chlorophyll(Chl)and amino acid metabolism.Creeping bentgrass(Agrostis stolonifera L.)plants were maintained for 35d under optimal growth temperature(22/18℃,day/night,non-stress control)or heat stress(35/30℃,day/night)in growth chambers,and glutamate(60 mM)or water(untreated control)was applied weekly as a foliar treatment.Under heat stress,turf quality(TQ),photochemical efficiency(Fv/Fm),and Chl content were significantly higher in plants treated with glutamate at 14-35 d,7-28 d,and 7-35 d,respectively,compared to untreated controls.Glutamate application significantly reduced the activities of chlorophyll-degrading peroxidase and chlorophyllase,two Chl-degrading enzymes,at 14,21,and 35 d of heat stress,whereas activity of the rate-limiting Chl synthesis enzyme,porphobilinogen deaminase,was not significantly affected.Glutamate treatment significantly increased the endogenous content of serine,threonine,lysine,aspartate,glutamate,and GABA under heat stress,while methionine,asparagine,isoleucine,and histidine were significantly up-regulated exclusively under heat stress.These findings suggest that glutamate could serve as a repressor for heat-accelerated leaf senescence by suppressing Chl degradation and activating amino acid metabolism involved in energy production,antioxidant defense,and nitrogen balance.

Determination of multiaxial stress rupture criteria for creeping materials:A critical analysis of different approaches

Materials in engineering applications are rarely uniaxially-loaded.In reality,failures under multiaxial loading has been widely observed in engineering structures.The life prediction of a component under multiaxial stresses has long been a challenging issue,particularly for high temperature applications.To distinguish the mode of failure ranging from a maximum principal stress intergranular damage to von Mises effective stress rupture mode a multiaxial stress rupture criterion(MSRC)was originally proposed by Sdobyrev and then Hayhurst and Leckie(SHL MSRC).A multiaxial-factor,α,was developed as a result which was intended to be a material constant and differentiates the bias of the MSRC between maxi-mum principal stress and effective stress.The success of the SHL MSRC relies on accurately calibrating the value ofαto quantify the multiaxial response of the material/geometry combination.To find a more suitable approach for determining MSRC,the applicability of different methods are evaluated.Given that the resulting analysis of the various approaches can be affected by the creep failure mechanism,princi-ples in the determination of MSRC with and without using continuum damage mechanics approaches are recommended.The viability of uniaxial material parameters in correlating withαthrough the analysis of available data in literature is also presented.It is found that the increase of the uniaxial creep dam-age tolerance parameterλis accompanied bythe decreaseof theα-value,whichimplies thatthe creep ductility plays an important role in affecting the multiaxial rupture behavior of materials.

Pre-operative visceral adipose tissue radiodensity is a potentially novel prognostic biomarker for early endoscopic post-operative recurrence in Crohn’s disease

BACKGROUND Evidence suggests inflammatory mesenteric fat is involved in post-operative recurrence(POR)of Crohn’s disease(CD).However,its prognostic value is INTRODUCTION Crohn’s disease(CD)is a debilitating chronic immune-mediated inflammatory disease(IMID)of the gastrointestinal tract that is increasing in incidence and prevalence globally[1].CD patients often undergo surgery for disease-related complic-ations and/or medically refractory disease.Unfortunately,surgery is not curative,and many patients develop post-operative recurrence(POR)of CD with a significant proportion eventually requiring additional surgeries.With advances in early detection and therapeutics,the contemporary 10-year risk of surgery has improved from 50%to 26%,but the risk of recurrent surgery has remained unchanged at 30%,suggesting a need to improve post-operative management strategies[2].Presently,there are two accepted strategies to mitigate POR,but each have potential limitations.Firstly,patients start early post-operative pharmacologic prophylaxis within 4-6 wk after surgery.This strategy can potentially overtreat a subset of patient who may not develop long-term disease recurrence off therapy.Consequently,these patients are at risk of medication-related adverse events and the direct and indirect costs associated with therapy with little or no benefit[3].The second strategy is performing early colonoscopy within 6-12 months after surgery and escalating therapy based on FOOTNOTES Author contributions:Gu P is the guarantor of the article and was involved in concept and design,data collection,statistical analysis,drafting of manuscript,and final approval of manuscript;Dube S and Choi SY were involved in statistical analysis,drafting of the manuscript,and final approval of manuscript;Gellada N,Win S,Lee YJ and Yang S were involved in the data collection,drafting of the manuscript,and final approval of manuscript;Haritunians T and Li D were involved in data analysis and interpretation,drafting of manuscript and final approval of manuscript;Melmed GY,Yarur AJ,Fleshner P,Kallman C and Devkota S were involved in study concept and design,data interpretation,drafting of manuscript and final approval of manuscript;Vasiliauskas EA,Bonthala N,Syal G,Ziring D and Targan SR were involved in data interpretation,drafting of manuscript and final approval of manuscript;Rabizadeh S was involved in study concept and design,drafting of manuscript and final approval of manuscript;McGovern DPB was involved in concept and design,statistical analysis,drafting of manuscript and final approval of manuscript.

Anisotropic time-dependent behaviors of shale under direct shearing and associated empirical creep models

Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.

A creep model for ultra-deep salt rock considering thermal-mechanical damage under triaxial stress conditions

To investigate the specific creep behavior of ultra-deep buried salt during oil and gas exploitation,a set of triaxial creep experiments was conducted at elevated temperatures with constant axial pressure and unloading confining pressure conditions.Experimental results show that the salt sample deforms more significantly with the increase of applied temperature and deviatoric loading.The accelerated creep phase is not occurring until the applied temperature reaches 130℃,and higher temperature is beneficial to the occurrence of accelerated creep.To describe the specific creep behavior,a novel three-dimensional(3D)creep constitutive model is developed that incorporates the thermal and mechanical variables into mechanical elements.Subsequently,the standard particle swarm optimization(SPSO)method is adopted to fit the experimental data,and the sensibility of key model parameters is analyzed to further illustrate the model function.As a result,the model can accurately predict the creep behavior of salt under the coupled thermo-mechanical effect in deep-buried condition.Based on the research results,the creep mechanical behavior of wellbore shrinkage is predicted in deep drilling projects crossing salt layer,which has practical implications for deep rock mechanics problems.

Creep constitutive model considering nonlinear creep degradation of fractured rock

Stability analysis of underground constructions requires a model study of rock masses’ long-term performance. Creep tests under different stress conditions was conducted on intact granite and granite samples fractured at 30° and 45° angles. The experimental results indicate that the steady creep strain rates of intact and fractured rock present an exponential increase trend with the increase of stress level. A nonlinear creep model is developed based on the experimental results, in which the initial damage caused by fracture together with the damage caused by constant load have been taken into consideration. The fitting analysis results indicated that the model proposed is more accurate at identifying the full creep regions in fractured granite, especially the accelerated stage of creep deformation. The least-square fit error of the proposed creep model is significantly lower than that of Nishihara model by almost an order of magnitude. An analysis of the effects of elastic modulus, viscosity coefficient, and damage factors on fractured rock strain rate and creep strain is conducted. If no consideration is given to the effects of the damage, the proposed nonlinear creep model can degenerate into to the classical Nishihara model.

A bounding surface visco-plasticity model considering generalized spacing ratio of soils

The non-unique critical state of soils with time-dependent behaviors is a significant issue in geotechnical engineering problems.However,previous bounding surface plasticity models cannot predict accurately the non-unique critical state of soils,because the distance between the compression line and critical state line charged by strain-rate effect is basically neglected.To fill this gap,a generalized spacing ratio of soils is defined in the elasto-viscoplastic framework,and a bounding surface visco-plasticity model is formulated and verified,which can consider the generalized spacing ratio.Specifically,the generalized spacing ratio of soils reflects the distance between the compression line and the critical state line of soils with time-dependent behaviors.Then,the generalized spacing ratio is introduced into an improved anisotropic bounding surface.A new expression of the visco-plastic multiplier is derived by solving the consistency equation of an anisotropic bounding surface.In the expression,a strain rate index is proposed to account for the strain-rate effect on visco-plastic strain increment,and a visco-plastic hardening modulus is derived to predict the visco-plastic response of soils in overconsolidation conditions.The model is then verified through constant strain rate tests and creep tests.Notably,it can capture the non-unique critical states of soils with time-dependent behaviors due to the generalized spacing ratio and the creep rupture of soils due to the visco-plastic multiplier that considers the stress ratio and visco-plastic strain rate.

Improving creep strength of the fine-grained heat-affected zone of novel 9Cr martensitic heat-resistant steel via modified thermo-mechanical treatment

The infamous type Ⅳ failure within the fine-grained heat-affected zone (FGHAZ) in G115 steel weldments seriously threatens the safe operation of ultra-supercritical (USC) power plants.In this work,the traditional thermo-mechanical treatment was modified via the replacement of hot-rolling with cold rolling,i.e.,normalizing,cold rolling,and tempering (NCT),which was developed to improve the creep strength of the FGHAZ in G115 steel weldments.The NCT treatment effectively promoted the dissolution of preformed M_(23)C_(6)particles and relieved the boundary segregation of C and Cr during welding thermal cycling,which accelerated the dispersed reprecipitation of M_(23)C_(6) particles within the fresh reaustenitized grains during post-weld heat treatment.In addition,the precipitation of Cu-rich phases and MX particles was promoted evidently due to the deformation-induced dislocations.As a result,the interacting actions between precipitates,dislocations,and boundaries during creep were reinforced considerably.Following this strategy,the creep rupture life of the FGHAZ in G115 steel weldments can be prolonged by 18.6%,which can further push the application of G115 steel in USC power plants.