Multi-Model Approach for Assessing the Influence of Calibration Criteria on the Water Balance in Ouémé Basin

Hydrological models are very useful tools for evaluating water resources, and the hydroclimatic hazards associated with the water cycle. However, their calibration and validation require the use of performance criteria which choice is not straightforward. This paper aims to evaluate the influence of the performance criteria on water balance components and water extremes using two global rainfall-runoff models (HBV and GR4J) over the Ouémé watershed at the Bonou and Savè outlets. Three (3) Efficacy criteria (Nash, coefficient of determination, and KGE) were considered for calibration and validation. The results show that the Nash criterion provides a good assessment of the simulation of the different parts of the hydrograph. KGE is better for simulating peak flows and water balance elements than other efficiency criteria. This study could serve as a basis for the choice of performance criteria in hydrological modelling.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi-time points and multi-indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

A HIERARCHICAL MULTIPLE CRITERIA MODEL FOR ELICITING RELATIVE PREFERENCES IN CONFLICT SITUATIONS

一条多重标准决定分析(MCDA ) 途径为捕获涉及冲突的一个决定制造者的相对偏爱信息被设计。更明确地，一条 MCDA 途径基于高方法， ELECTRE III，为从大多数在冲突评价状态或可能的情形到被采用在关系被允许的地方，最不比较喜欢，为一个决定制造者根据值系统。为了表明这偏爱引导方法论能方便地在图模型的框架以内在实践被实现为，冲突分辨率，它被用于发生在北方 Battleford 的镇上的一个真实世界水供应危机，在萨克其万的加拿大的省定位了。

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the Electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi time points and multi indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the Multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

MATHEMATIC MODEL FOR FORMABILITY CRITERIA OF SUPERPLASTIC AIR BULGING COMPONENTS

A proposal for two types of press close to die,including blank coming in die and Blank cov- ering die,and four criteria for formability is put forward in the study of the superplastic air bulge forming of the metallic thin wall components.A dimensionless weigh mathematic model for the criteria of superplastic air bulge forming is developed to be: Q_w=1.56(WS)/(HF)+2.37(0-(?)π/(180)-r/(r_0)+0.19 The superior formability of components is approaching,if Q_W≥1,and the worse,if Q_W<1.It was confirmed by practice that the above mentioned model is accurate sufficiently.

Effectiveness of Fuzzy Overlay Function for Multi-Criteria Spatial Modeling—A Case Study on Preparation of Land Resources Map for Mawsynram Block of East Khasi Hills District of Meghalaya, India

Multi-criteria spatial modeling is one of the important components of spatial decision support system (SDSS). Multi-criteria spatial modeling often requires a common scale of values for diverse and dissimilar inputs to create an integrated analysis. Weighted overlay function is most commonly used for site suitability analysis which identifies the most preferred locations for a specific phenomenon. However, weighted overlay function gives inconsistent and erroneous results for highly dissimilar inputs as it assumes that most favorable factors result in the higher values of raster, while identifying the best sites. This paper conveys the effectiveness of fuzzy overlay function for multi-criteria spatial modeling. It is based on the principle of fuzzy logic theory which defines membership using Gaussian function on each of the input rasters instead of giving individual rank to them like in weighted overlay function. A case study on preparation of land resources map for Mawsynram block of East Khasi Hills district of Meghalaya, India is presented here. It was observed that fuzzy overlay function has given more satisfactory output in terms of site suitability while comparing with the result of weighted overlay function.

Intensity Allocation Criteria of Carbon Emissions Permits and Regional Economic Development in China——Based on a 30-Province/Autonomous Region Computable General Equilibrium Model

在瓷器地区性的开发的碳排出物许可证和它的影响的紧张分配标准通过 30-province/autonomous 区域被分析可计算出来的一般平衡(CGE ) 模型。模拟结果显示出那：没有进行地区性的经济开发进帐号的工业紧张标准加深地区性的经济开发的 unbalance；没有考虑工业性质的地区性的紧张标准几乎不在地区性的和谐开发，而是对高碳的排放工业的相对高的否定影响施加很少否定影响。中央政府分配的二拍子的圆舞分配计划到省的政府的排出物许可证基于工业性质基于地区性的经济开发然后省的政府分配排出物许可证到排放资源或实体是一种可行、合用的选择。引证元， Y.-N. ， M.-J. 史， N. 李，等， 2012：在中国的碳排出物许可证和地区性的经济开发的紧张分配标准基于一个 30-province/autonomous 区域可计算出来的一般平衡模型。副词。Clim。变化物件， 3 (3 ) ， doi：10.3724/SP .J.1248.2012.00154。

A Practical Solution to the Small Sample Size Bias and Uncertainty Problems of Model Selection Criteria in Two-Input Process Multiple Response Surface Methodology Datasets

Multiple response surface methodology (MRSM) most often involves the analysis of small sample size datasets which have associated inherent statistical modeling problems. Firstly, classical model selection criteria in use are very inefficient with small sample size datasets. Secondly, classical model selection criteria have an acknowledged selection uncertainty problem. Finally, there is a credibility problem associated with modeling small sample sizes of the order of most MRSM datasets. This work focuses on determination of a solution to these identified problems. The small sample model selection uncertainty problem is analysed using sixteen model selection criteria and a typical two-input MRSM dataset. Selection of candidate models, for the responses in consideration, is done based on response surface conformity to expectation to deliberately avoid selection of models using the problematic classical model selection criteria. A set of permutations of combinations of response models with conforming response surfaces is determined. Each combination is optimised and results are obtained using overlaying of data matrices. The permutation of results is then averaged to obtain credible results. Thus, a transparent multiple model approach is used to obtain the solution which gives some credibility to the small sample size results of the typical MRSM dataset. The conclusion is that, for a two-input process MRSM problem, conformity of response surfaces can be effectively used to select candidate models and thus the use of the problematic model selection criteria is avoidable.

Criteria-specific long-term survival prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver transplantation

AIM: To establish a model to predict long-term survival of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) patients after liver transplantation(MHCAT).METHODS: Two hundred and twenty-three patients with HCC were followed for at least six years to identify independent risk factors for long-term survival after liver transplantation(LT). The criteria for HCC liver transplantation included the Milan, University of California San Francisco, Hangzhou and Shanghai Fudan criteria. The Cox regression model was used to build MHCAT specifying these criteria. A survival analysis was carried out for patients with high or low risk.RESULTS: The one-, three- and five-year cumulativesurvival of HCC patients after LT was 78.9%, 53.2% and 46.4%, respectively. Of the HCC patients, the proportion meeting the Hangzhou and Fudan criteria was significantly higher than the proportion meeting the Milan criteria(64.6% vs 39.5%, 52.0% vs 39.5%, P < 0.05). Moreover, the proportion meeting the Hangzhou criteria was also significantly higher than the proportion meeting other criteria(P < 0.01). Pre-operative alfa-fetoprotein level, intraoperative blood loss and retransplantation were common significant predictors of long-term survival in HCC patients with reference to the Milan, University of California San Francisco and Fudan criteria, whereas in MHCAT based on the Hangzhou criteria, total bilirubin, intraoperative blood loss and retransplantation were independent predictors. The c-statistic for MHCAT was 0.773-0.824, with no statistical difference among these four criteria. According to the MHCAT scoring system, patients with low risk showed a higher five-year survival than those with high risk(P < 0.001).CONCLUSION: MHCAT can effectively predict longterm survival for HCC patients, but needs to be verified by multi-center retrospective or randomized controlled trials.

3D打印脊柱侧弯矫形器治疗青少年脊柱侧弯的多准则决策模型评价

背景:传统脊柱侧弯矫形器存在制作工艺流程复杂、加工周期长、贴合性差等缺点,3D打印脊柱侧弯矫形器具有制造精度高、个性化等优势。目的:基于多准则决策模型评价3D打印脊柱侧弯矫形器治疗脊柱侧弯的疗效。方法:回顾性收集2019年1月至2022年10月收治于中山陈星海中西医结合医院的72例脊柱侧弯患者的临床资料,根据治疗矫形器的不同分为2组,研究组23例采用3D打印脊柱侧弯矫形器治疗,传统组49例采用传统的聚丙烯脊模塑柱矫形器治疗。比较两组患者临床疗效以及并发症发生状况;建立3D打印脊柱侧弯矫形器治疗脊柱侧弯的多准则决策模型,并对两组效益值、风险值及决策模型的稳定性进行评价。结果与结论:①研究组患者治疗6个月后,顶椎偏移距离、Cobb角、顶椎旋转度、功能性运动评分、目测类比评分以及总有效率与传统组相比均显著改善,差异有显著性意义(P<0.05);②效益指标中对患者病情影响最大的是Cobb角,风险指标影响较大的是呼吸困难;③研究组和传统组治疗脊柱侧弯效益值分别为79和64,风险值分别为74和57,综合效益和风险值发现研究组治疗方法的效益-风险值比传统组高出16;④在0-100%风险相对权重范围内,研究组的效益-风险总值总是高于传统组,证明多准则决策模型的稳定性较好;⑤提示3D打印脊柱矫形器能够更好地恢复脊柱侧弯青少年的脊柱生理弯曲,提高治疗有效率。

基于地下水安全的六价铬土壤环境基准值推导案例

重金属污染物六价铬[Cr(Ⅵ)]毒性较大,迁移性强,对地下水安全带来很大威胁,现行相关土壤标准多忽视了地下水安全,亟需制定基于地下水安全的Cr(Ⅵ)土壤环境基准值为污染场地监管提供支撑。调研借鉴国外制定基于地下水安全的污染物环境基准值的方法,以浙江黏壤土、江苏壤质砂土和吉林壤质黏土为研究对象,进行室内静态吸附试验,获得3种土壤的Cr(Ⅵ)分配系数。土壤参数及含水层相关参数通过查阅调研国内文献获得,采用美国环境保护署在土壤筛选指南中提出的土壤筛选值(soil screening level,SSL)方法,基于《地下水质量标准》(GBT 14848-2017)反推得到基于地下水安全的土壤环境基准值。研究结果表明:基于地下水安全的Cr(Ⅵ)土壤环境基准值分别为0.944,0.690,0.514 mg/kg,研究结果与国外以保护地下水安全为目的的基准值较为接近,但各研究地区土壤性质的差异使得基准值有所差别。因此各地监管机构在完善土壤环境质量评价体系时应当构建各地土壤及含水层参数数据库,为本地区土壤污染治理提供参考。研究结果可为我国各地区推导基于地下水安全的重金属土壤环境基准值提供科学依据。

高地应力条件下隧道多力学特性锚杆模型及应用研究

为解决FLAC3D中Cable模型无法模拟锚杆(索)断裂失效,因而难以合理分析复杂地质条件下围岩稳定性的问题,采用数值计算手段对锚杆模型进行改进,提出锚杆(索)的失效判据,基于FISH语言修正Cable模型法向及锚固剂轴向本构关系,并将算法嵌入到运行程序中。结合Link模型构建多力学特性锚杆模型(MMC模型),并通过开展锚杆拉拔及模拟试验,对MMC模型进行验证。以月直山隧道工程为背景,构建隧道支护算例,对比Cable模型及MMC模型在工程模拟分析中的应用效果。结果表明:1)修正后的锚杆及锚固剂轴向本构模型包含破坏失效阶段,符合锚杆实际力学行为;2)锚杆拉拔试验模拟结果和真实试验结果接近,最大误差为2.9%,说明MMC模型能够合理模拟真实锚杆的受力及失效破坏特征;3)MMC模型在工程模拟中能直观地展现破断失效位置,且能够模拟锚固系统失效,而Cable模型在锚杆达到破坏条件后仍持续为围岩提供支护力,计算结果与实际存在较大偏差;4)MMC模型扩大了FLAC3D的应用范围及适用性,提高了锚杆支护的模拟能力。

基于改进模拟退火算法的台北市路划构建方法研究

路划是相同方向的有序路段集合,也是道路网络的高阶语义,在道路网制图综合中得到广泛使用。针对传统的路划构建方法在选择配对路段时,需要设置不同阈值且对坐标误差敏感、缺乏多尺度信息等问题,本研究借助多尺度表达思想,探讨一种基于模拟退火(simulatedannealing,SA)算法的全局优化的路划构建方法。首先,建立一种局部平顺性与全局延展性的多尺度判断准则,实验采取具有代表性的台北市矢量道路点和线两种数据集,进行矢量边界裁剪;其次,对该道路网数据进行图论建模,点数据集用于构建点,线数据集用于构建相邻关系;最后,通过改进的SA算法进行模型推演,并与传统方法进行比较验证。结果表明:本方法较传统方法在台北市矢量道路网数据集中取得了更长的路划平均长度、更少的路划条数;本方法构建的路划集的准确率比传统方法高了15.9%;所得到的路划结果能够清晰地认知出道路网的主干及层次关系。

基于DEA-EWM-TOPSIS算法的瓦楞纸箱配纸及楞型选择

对瓦楞纸箱的面纸、芯纸、里纸和楞型进行组合评价,提供科学的纸箱选配依据,解决不合理选配纸箱问题。本课题提出了一个多准则决策模型,采用交叉效率DEA-EWM-TOPSIS组合模型,对瓦楞纸箱进行配纸及楞型方案选择,并开发了相应的纸箱选择软件,帮助决策者选出性能和成本达到最优平衡的纸箱。以内装物质量为2 kg、综合尺寸为460 mm的0201型快递纸箱为例,依据瓦楞纸箱的评价指标数据,通过模型计算进行排序,选出最佳的纸箱方案。本课题将多变量因素耦合后,再进行整体优化,为瓦楞纸箱的选择决策提供了一种有效、便捷的方法。

粤东北差干钼金多金属矿成矿特征及模式探讨

对差干钼金多金属矿床成矿地质条件、矿体特征、围岩蚀变特征等进行初步调查与统计,对矿区的控矿构造、岩浆及成矿作用等进行分析研究,探讨了矿区成矿物质来源、控矿因素、矿体赋存特征以及成矿模式。差干钼金多金属矿床矿体主要产于晚白垩世酸性火山岩地层中,尤其是晚白垩世气孔流纹岩、球粒流纹岩地层,矿石类型为钼金矿脉型,蚀变种类主要为硅化、钾(钠)长石化、胶状黄铁矿化、赤铁矿化、绿泥石化、萤石化和碳酸盐化等。矿区成矿物质主要来源于火山岩本身已有成矿物质以及火山喷气阶段深部岩浆源,矿体受北北东向鹿子坑断裂和北西西向2组不同级别、不同方向构造的联合控制,构造分支复合变异部位、侵入体接触界面、裂隙发育部位以及层间破碎带是矿化富集的有利部位,多期多阶段蚀变和成矿作用有利于形成厚大的钼金多金属矿体。

城市型石化企业大气环境风险防护区域划定研究

随着城市化进程日益加快,城市用地范围由中心城区向外扩张,原本位于郊区的石化企业开始与城市融合,石化企业周边的空地被开发成住宅区、商业区和生活区等人员密集的场所,导致城市型石化企业的出现。城市型石化企业与周边居民的矛盾日益突出,因此城市型石化企业急需设置足够的风险防护区域。本研究以华北某石化企业新建120 t/h酸性水汽提装置为例,依据《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》(HJ 169—2018)的环境风险模拟程序和要求,对该项目环境风险进行预测。根据预测结果,以半径为960 m的范围作为大气环境风险防护区域进行重点防护。本研究可为城市型石化企业的风险防范措施落实、应急预案编制及生态环境部门的风险管理提供参考。

改良切口与传统切口治疗腮腺良性肿瘤的疗效比较

目的 基于多准则决策模型探讨改良切口与传统切口治疗腮腺良性肿瘤的疗效。方法 回顾性选择2019年4月至2022年4月于成都市中西医结合医院采用手术治疗的98例腮腺良性肿瘤患者为研究对象,将采用倒“V”型切口治疗的患者作为改良组,采用“S”形切口治疗的患者作为传统组,两组各49例。比较两组年龄、性别、病理结果、病变部位、手术时间、手术出血量等一般资料;比较两组视觉模拟评分法(VAS)评分、焦虑自评量表(SAS)评分、术后面瘫分级、术后3个月的疗效;比较两组面瘫、涎瘘等术后并发症发生情况。建立改良术式治疗腮腺良性肿瘤的多准则决策模型,并对两组效益值、风险值及决策模型的稳定性进行评价。结果 改良组患者的手术切口长度、术后皮肤表面瘢痕长度、VAS评分及SAS评分与传统组比较,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);改良组与传统组的平均效益值分别为83、55,改良组的效益值100%优于传统组;改良组与传统组的平均风险值分别为75、57,改良组的风险值100%低于传统组;改良组与传统组的平均效益-风险总值分别为79、56,改良组的总效益-风险值高于传统组的概率为100%;多准则决策评价模型稳定性较好。结论 倒“V”型切口能明显改善腮腺良性肿瘤患者术后面颈部的美观度,提高患者的生活质量及幸福指数。

大坝安全监测数据异常识别模型簇研究

监测数据异常识别是大坝运行安全在线监测的前提和基础。单一识别方法难以实现高效准确识别,而RREW模型对规律不佳与单台阶数据序列容易漏判且计算效率低。为此,提出了基于卷积神经网络的一维VGG数据异常识别模型,建立了由统计回归、稳健回归、一维VGG识别模型等模型库和Pauta准则、MZ准则等判别准则库共同构成的大坝安全数据异常识别模型簇,并构建了不同数据类型与异常识别模型及预警准则的匹配机制。工程校验表明:一维VGG模型对不同序列长度、不同台阶占比的数据序列均具有较好的识别效果,能有效弥补传统回归模型和稳健回归模型的不足,由前述3种模型及两种准则共同构建的异常识别模型簇可实现海量数据异常的在线精准、快速识别,为大坝安全在线监测提供可靠的数据支持。

雪峰弧形构造带中段天明金矿地质特征及找矿标志

湖南省安化县天明金矿地处江南造山带雪峰弧形构造带中段,金矿成矿地质条件优越。在综合研究区域资料和勘查成果的基础上,根据地球物理、地球化学、遥感等地质资料,对比分析了天明金矿与邻区典型金矿的成矿地质环境、矿体展布、矿石特征及矿床成因特征,探讨了天明地区的成矿地质条件和找矿标志,并初步建立了天明地区金矿的成矿模式和综合找矿模型。天明金矿目前已揭露3条近EW向的破碎蚀变带,其成因类型为造山与重熔岩浆热液混合型金矿,且在垂向分带上显示出石英脉型—构造蚀变岩型的分带特征。研究成果可以为天明金矿及同类型金矿的找矿工作提供参考。

Prognostic models for acute liver failure

BACKGROUND: Acute liver failure (ALF) remains a dramatic and unpredictable disease with high morbidity and mortality. Early and accurate prognostic assessment of patients with ALF is critically important for optimum clinical pathway. DATA SOURCES: Five English-language medical databases, MEDLINE, Science Direct, OVID, Springer Link and Wiley Interscience were searched for articles on 'acute liver failure', 'prognosis', and related topics. RESULTS: Multi-variable prognostic models including the King's College Hospital criteria and the model for end-stage liver disease score have been widely used in determination of the prognosis of ALF, but the results are far from satisfactory. Other prognostic indicators including serum Gc-globulin, arterial blood lactate, serum phosphate, arterial blood ammonia, and serum alpha-fetoprotein are promising but await further assessement. CONCLUSIONS: A reliable prognostic model to be developed in the future should not only have predictive value for poor outcome but also help to predict the survival of patients without a liver transplantation. Further studies are necessary to assess the prognostic accuracy of any new models. (Hepatobiliary Pancreat Dis Int 2010; 9: 122-128)