Sowing time of wheat in south eastern Australia varies from autumn to early winter, depending on the seasonal ＇break＇. Wheat yields are often reduced by frost damage at flowering time and by heat-and/or water-stress...Sowing time of wheat in south eastern Australia varies from autumn to early winter, depending on the seasonal ＇break＇. Wheat yields are often reduced by frost damage at flowering time and by heat-and/or water-stress during grain filling. Selecting suitable varieties for specific sowing times is a complex decision farmers make because these varietal phenology and climate risks have to be assessed together. In order to help farmers make decisions, they need tools that simulate and analyse agronomically-suitable sowing dates （ASSD） for a given variety of wheat. The hypothesis underlining this study is the integration of a wheat phenology model with historical climate data is an effective approach to modelling the ASSD of current varieties used in the wheat growing areas of Southern NSW. The parameters of the wheat phenology model were based on data from five years of field experimentation across 15 sites. Data from four sites were used to examine varietal suitability in relation to sowing time and its associated risks of frost and heat damage. The optimum ASSD for any variety at 72 locations across Southern NSW was investigated. The results showed that there were substantial spatial variations in the ASSD across the target region. ASSD for a late maturing wheat genotype （EGA Gregory） can range from early March to late April, while the earliest acceptable sowing date for an early maturing spring wheat genotype （H46） can range from early to late May. The wide range of spatial variation in the earliest and latest sowing dates, as well as the varied length of sowing opportunities, highlighted the importance of being able to apply a modelling approach which can integrate information on crop phenology with climate risk for a given location. This approach would allow better decision-making on suitable varieties and sowing dates in order to minimise the risk of frost and heat damage affecting crop yield.展开更多
Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In...Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain of China （HHHP） are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator （APSIM）-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity （Gr） of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d·10yr^-1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering （TT_floral_initiation） increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Altematively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity （TT_start grain_fill） increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades （1981- 2009） prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d·10yr^-1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time （TT） of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg·yr^-1. However, thermal time shift （TTS） increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 Received September 16, 2015; accepted January 24, 2016 kg·yr^-1. It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.展开更多
文摘Sowing time of wheat in south eastern Australia varies from autumn to early winter, depending on the seasonal ＇break＇. Wheat yields are often reduced by frost damage at flowering time and by heat-and/or water-stress during grain filling. Selecting suitable varieties for specific sowing times is a complex decision farmers make because these varietal phenology and climate risks have to be assessed together. In order to help farmers make decisions, they need tools that simulate and analyse agronomically-suitable sowing dates （ASSD） for a given variety of wheat. The hypothesis underlining this study is the integration of a wheat phenology model with historical climate data is an effective approach to modelling the ASSD of current varieties used in the wheat growing areas of Southern NSW. The parameters of the wheat phenology model were based on data from five years of field experimentation across 15 sites. Data from four sites were used to examine varietal suitability in relation to sowing time and its associated risks of frost and heat damage. The optimum ASSD for any variety at 72 locations across Southern NSW was investigated. The results showed that there were substantial spatial variations in the ASSD across the target region. ASSD for a late maturing wheat genotype （EGA Gregory） can range from early March to late April, while the earliest acceptable sowing date for an early maturing spring wheat genotype （H46） can range from early to late May. The wide range of spatial variation in the earliest and latest sowing dates, as well as the varied length of sowing opportunities, highlighted the importance of being able to apply a modelling approach which can integrate information on crop phenology with climate risk for a given location. This approach would allow better decision-making on suitable varieties and sowing dates in order to minimise the risk of frost and heat damage affecting crop yield.
基金Acknowledgements This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 41401104 and 41371002）, Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province, China （D2015302017）, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project （2015M570167）, and the Science and Technology Planning Project of Hebei Academy of Science （15101）. We are grateful to the editors and anonymous reviewers for their insightful inputs at the review phase of this work.
文摘Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain of China （HHHP） are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator （APSIM）-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity （Gr） of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d·10yr^-1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering （TT_floral_initiation） increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Altematively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity （TT_start grain_fill） increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades （1981- 2009） prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d·10yr^-1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time （TT） of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg·yr^-1. However, thermal time shift （TTS） increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 Received September 16, 2015; accepted January 24, 2016 kg·yr^-1. It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.
