Changes in the Supply of Public Intermediate Goods,Fixed Wage,and the Relative Price in the Harris-Todaro Model

Since the Harris-Todaro model was proposed in 1970,it has played a crucial role in analyzing various environmental and trade issues in developing countries.This paper analyzes the effects of the amount of public intermediate goods provided by the government,the increase in the fixed wage rate in the urban sector,and the changes in the relative international prices of agricultural and manufacturing goods on labor employment,unemployment,and the economic welfare in the context of a small open economy.It also proposes relevant policies to reduce the unemployment rate while improving national welfare.

Empirical Analysis of Xinjiang's Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Approach

Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang's practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an extended trade gravity model fitting for Xinjiang's bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it is proposed that those three variables affect the Xinjiang's bilateral trade posi- tively. Whereas, geographic distance is found to be a significant factor influencing Xinjiang’s bilateral trade negatively. Then, by the extended trade gravity model, this article analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners quantitatively in 2004. The results indicate that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successfully trade part- nership with Central Asia, Central Europe and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's for- eign trade are put forward.

Analysis of interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding provinces: based on constructed MRIO Model

The interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions plays an important role in the national emission reduction target among China's provinces. Furthermore, it will affect the smooth start-up of the national carbon trade market as well as the implementation of targets in 2030 for dealing with the climate change. Based on constructed MRIO model, this paper analyzes the embodied carbon emission trade flows among Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The results indicate that six provinces have formed different patterns of carbon trade balance, where Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces are in a deficit position, while the other three provinces are in a surplus position.Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have transferred part of the carbon emissions to the other three provinces, which shows greater heterogeneity among various provinces and provincial different sectors. On basis of the conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on provincial decomposition, responsibility distribution, and provincial collaborative reduction for national emission reduction targets.

Influence of Sino-US Agricultural Trade on China’s Total Agricultural Output Value Based on Cointegration Model

According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric model to make a detailed analysis of the agricultural trade between China and the United States by using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model in order to explore the impact of agricultural trade between China and the United States on China’s agricultural development. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a balanced relationship between the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and the development of agriculture in China. The total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States affects the development of China’s agriculture.In addition,in the short term,if the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,then the error correction term will reverse it with strength of 0. 378,so that the non-equilibrium state will gradually return to the equilibrium state.

MRIO model-based study on water nitrogen pollution transfer embodied in international trade

This study uses the global pollutant emission databases and global input-output model in 2015 to calculate the impact of international trade on global water nitrogen emission patterns,based on considering the total amount of pollutant transfer and pollutant emission intensity of trade flows The main conclusions are as follows:(1) There are always a large amount of water nitrogen emissions transferring from developed economies to developing economies embodied in their bilateral trade activities.Small amount of transfers are of some areas with similar endowments of agricultural resources or long distances.(2) In 2015,the net import of water nitrogen pollution embodied in China's trade was 160,000 tons,accounting for 2.72% of the global water nitrogen imports.The sharp increases in cereal imports,together with high food storage as well as high pollution intensity embedded in trade are the main reason.It is recommended that through applying alleviations such as agricultural machinery assistance and technical training to accelerate the transfer and spread of agricultural technology in Africa,Asia,and other regions,thus helping increase agricultural production productivity in underdeveloped areas and reducing the pollution intensity embodied in trade flows from underdeveloped areas to developed areas.

Review of Carbon Emissions Trading Production Model and Research on Its Applications in China

With the Kyoto Protocol entering into effect in many countries one after another,carbon trading has come into being and developed quickly.China is the main supplier of carbon emissions rights in the world,but such transactions are still in the stage of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects without its own trading system,which is not conducive for China to win the rights of carbon pricing in the international market.Low-carbon and emissions reduction is the international trend nowadays,and therefore,it is particularly necessary and urgent to investigate the issue of carbon trading in China.In this paper,the authors have reviewed Putty-Clay Vintage,which is a model of production function for carbon trading,revealing the main points,contributions and shortcomings of the model.Combined with China's national conditions,the authors have investigated the application of this model in China's carbon trading from four different angles,including enterprise production optimization,financial market development,national macro-economy,and the allocation of emission quota.This study aims to provide China's enterprises with an analytical framework when participating in carbon trading in the future and it is beneficial for them to make optimal production planning when considering the cost of carbon emissions reduction.

Optimal Policy for EOQ Model with Two Level of Trade Credits in One Replenishment Cycle

In general, a supplier/retailer frequently offer trade credit to stimulate their respective sales. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal supplier/retailer’s replenishment decisions under two levels of trade credit policy within the economic order quantity (EOQ) framework. This paper deals with the supplier/retailer’s inventory replenishment problem under two levels of trade credit in one replenishment cycle. A different approach of two levels of trade credit is used, which give more freedom to the supplier/retailer in business. In addition, the easy-to-use procedure is developed to efficiently find the optimal cycle time for the retailer under minimizing annual total relevant cost. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate these results.

Quantificational analysis and simulation of Technical Barriers to Trade with two country model

The Technical Barriers to Trade （TBT） is an important problem faced to the export of China. Based on the number differences of TBT notifications between countries, we propose the concept and computational method of the technical barrier coefficient. By means of price-production and price-demand functions, a trade model with a developed country and a developing country is designed. The available trade policies such as technical barriers, tariffs and export subsidies are simulated and analyzed. According to the simulation results, several trade strategies to come over technical barriers are suggested. These suggestions were provided to several export enterprises for their export strategy design.

The Issues of Zero Values in Trade Data and Modelling

International trade provides a channel with which the interaction,integration and partnership of countries can be attained and/or established.Despite the relevance of trade to national,regional and global economies,the documentation of these economic activities is sometimes inadequate such that it brings to question the validity of the generated data.Empirical scholars often find it difficult to analyze trade statistics with zero-trade values,especially in terms of finding the natural logarithm.Researchers often deal with the zero trade statistics by employing the truncation method or censoring method.However,this has consequences for empirical analysis and policy formulation because there is information in the zero-value trade that will be lost if they are truncated from the dataset.Hence,the main challenge in the literature is the issue of the most appropriate and efficient empirical strategy for solving the problem of zero-trade values among available options.This has led to controversy in the literature with several proofs and reproofs,actions and reaction as well as counter-reaction.It is on this basis that this paper is situated to review the raging controversy on the solution to the consideration of zero values in trade statistics as applicable to positive trade analysis and/or modelling.

Stock Trading via Feedback Control： Stochastic Model Predictive or Genetic？

We seek a discussion about the most suitable feedback control structure for stock trading under the consideration of proportional transaction costs. Suitability refers to robustness and performance capability. Both are tested by considering different one-step ahead prediction qualities, including the ideal case （perfect price-ahead prediction）, correct prediction of the direction of change in daily stock prices and the worst-case （wrong price rate sign-prediction at all sampling intervals）. Feedback control structures are partitioned into two general classes： stochastic model predictive control （SMPC） and genetic. For the former class, three controllers are discussed, whereby it is distinguished between two Markowitz- and one dynamic hedging-inspired SMPC formulation. For the latter class, five trading algorithms are disucssed, whereby it is distinguished between two different moving average （MA） based strategies, two trading range （TR） based strategies, and one strategy based on historical optimal （HistOpt） trajectories. This paper also gives a preliminary discussion about how modified dynamic hedging-inspired SMPC formulations may serve as alternatives to Markowitz portfolio optimization. The combinations of all of the eight controllers with five different one-step ahead prediction methods are backtested for daily trading of the 30 components of the German stock market index DAX for the time period between November 27, 2015 and November 25, 2016.

Local Trade Networks among Farmers and Traders

Both farmers and traders benefit from trade networking, which is crucial for the local economy. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how these networks operate, and how they can be managed more effectively. Throughout this study, we examine the economic networks formed between farmers and traders through the trade of food products. These networks are analyzed from the perspective of their structure and the factors that influence their development. Using data from 18 farmers and 15 traders, we applied exponential random graph models. The results of our study showed that connectivity, Popularity Spread, activity spread, good transportation systems, and high yields all affected the development of networks. Therefore, farmers’ productivity and high market demand can contribute to local food-crop trade. The network was not affected by reciprocity, open markets, proximity to locations, or trade experience of actors. Policy makers should consider these five factors when formulating policies for local food-crop trade. Additionally, local actors should be encouraged to use these factors to improve their network development. However, it is important to note that these factors alone cannot guarantee success. Policy makers and actors must also consider other factors such as legal frameworks, economic policies, and resource availability. Our approach can be used in future research to determine how traders and farmers can enhance productivity and profit in West Africa. This study addresses a research gap by examining factors influencing local food trade in a developing country.

Carbon emission reduction effect and mechanism test of carbon emission trading pilot

Carbon emission trading pilot policies were launched in seven provinces and cities,including Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and Chongqing in 2013.Carbon emission trading is of great significance to the development of green economy.Taking China’s carbon emission trading pilot as a natural experiment,the dual difference method was used to explore the carbon emission reduction effect of the pilot carbon emission trading policy on the pilot areas in China based on the panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2000 to 2019.Propensity score matching,parallel trend test and placebo test were conducted to improve the robustness of the empirical results.It is found that carbon emission trading pilot policies significantly promote carbon emission reduction in pilot areas compared with non-pilot areas.This conclusion from the benchmark regression passed the robustness test,and the carbon reduction effect showed an increasing trend year by year.With the mediation effect test,the carbon emission reduction mechanism of the pilot policy was studied.The results show that the carbon trading pilot policy reduces the carbon dioxide emission in the pilot area by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and technological progress.

RCEP生效对国际服务贸易影响作用研究——基于增加值贸易视角

RCEP作为当前世界范围内规模最大、影响范围最广的区域自由贸易体系,在服务贸易方面做出了高水平的开放承诺,它是中国构建高标准自由贸易区网络进程中的重要抓手。以1995-2018年全球范围内66个国家服务部门的双边出口数据为样本,运用结构引力模型和泊松拟极大似然估计方法,实证研究了RCEP对服务部门增加值贸易以及福利的影响作用。反事实模拟分析结果表明,RCEP对成员国服务部门总出口和国内增加值出口均有显著的促进作用,而非成员国将在整体上受损;RCEP对一国福利的影响较小,对一国出口的影响较大;对中国而言,RCEP将大幅提高中国对日本的服务部门总出口和国内增加值出口。此外,将RCEP与CPTPP进行比较发现,RCEP对我国服务部门增加值贸易的正向影响幅度小于CPTPP。

RCEP协定下跨境电商对贸易影响的时间差异性研究

为了拓宽双循环渠道,打开外循环新思路,以中国与RCEP成员国在2010年至2021年间进出口面板数据结合中国跨境电商交易额建立VAR模型,研究跨境电子商务发展对我国进出口贸易的动态影响。结果表明,在长期,跨境电商的发展使得发展中国家与我国双边贸易弹性系数高于发达国家,跨境电商的发展有利于我国同发展中国家进行贸易往来;在短期,跨境电商的发展对中国与韩国等部分国家的进出口存在逐渐增强的正向影响;跨境电商的发展对我国与多国贸易存在双向动态交互关系。

可再生能源投资的政企随机演化博弈研究——基于动态碳价视角

针对传统确定性演化博弈模型的不足,引入几何布朗运动模型模拟动态的碳价参数,构建了具有随机支付矩阵的演化博弈模型,以全国碳市场背景下的发电企业为例,研究了政企双方的演化过程和策略选择,探究了不同因素对演化均衡和政企决策的影响.结果显示:碳价是影响政企决策的重要因素,碳价较低时,政企的最优决策分别是选择作为策略即采取奖惩措施和不投资可再生能源,碳价较高时最优决策转变为不作为和投资.火力发电的成本、收益和碳排放系数以及可再生能源发电的成本、收益和建设成本是影响政府和发电企业策略选择的关键因素.发电企业投资意愿与政府的奖惩力度正相关,政府作为意愿与奖惩力度负相关,短期内提高政府的奖惩力度可激励发电企业的投资行为,但会缩短政府作为时长.

知识产权国内贸易对“双循环”有效联动的影响效应

基于知识产权国内贸易、“双循环”有效联动的时空演化特征分析发现,二者发展变化具有显著的内在逻辑一致性。理论分析认为,知识产权国内贸易可以通过加快高水平自主创新、激发高品质消费需求等,对“双循环”有效联动产生显著的促进作用。进一步利用2001—2020年中国省级面板数据开展的计量检验结果表明,第一,知识产权国内贸易对“双循环”有效联动具有积极促进作用;第二,由于知识产权国内贸易、“双循环”有效联动水平存在显著的空间溢出效应,因此,知识产权国内贸易对“双循环”有效联动的促进作用不仅发生在本地区,而且对相邻地区的“双循环”有效联动也有积极促进效应;第三,知识产权国内贸易对“双循环”有效联动的促进作用,因各地区对外开放程度、人力资本水平、城镇化水平、消费水平和知识产权保护水平的差异而存在一定的“门槛特征”。上述研究不仅有助于深化认识知识产权国内贸易对“双循环”有效联动的现实影响和作用机制,而且对于如何通过加强知识产权国内贸易推动“双循环”互促互进也有重要的政策意义。

基于多链存储优化的水产品交易匹配模型研究

区块链技术应用到水产品线上交易架构中可以使交易双方隐私信息得到基本保障,然而,目前区块链水产品线上交易模型和系统存在海量数据存储负载大、维护成本高、数据查询效率低等问题。为进一步缓解以上问题,在梳理和分析水产品交易流程基础上,根据水产品交易业务技术需求,提出了基于多链存储优化的水产品交易匹配模型。该模型在智能合约中通过贪心算法实现了效率较高的多属性水产品线上交易匹配过程,通过区块链多通道技术构建了水产品交易多链架构,实现了用户交易信息分布式存储,提高了交易信息查询效率,同时,采用区块链与本地数据库双模式存储技术,缓解了区块链网络中各个节点海量数据存储的负载。基于Hyperledger Fabric平台实现了基于多链存储优化的水产品交易原型系统。该原型系统测试结果表明,临界值900s平均最多可以完成1296笔交易,说明系统在处理千条交易数据量时可以正常运行,满足水产品线上交易平台日常实际交易业务需求,同时在链上存储1600条合同信息时查询1条用户合同信息平均时间为4.018s,多链存储结构提高了链上数据查询速度。

基于可持续发展视角我国稀土资源贸易安全评价研究

稀土是支撑高端技术创新和新兴产业发展的关键矿产资源,已经成为大国资源竞争和国际地缘经济政治博弈的重要对象。全球稀土供应链重构进程加剧,如何评估我国稀土资源贸易安全,破解稀土贸易贫困化增长困境,促进稀土产业可持续发展,是当前亟须关注和解决的重要课题。本研究基于“压力—状态—响应”模型(Pressure-State-Response Model)构建稀土贸易安全评价指标体系,测算不同时期我国稀土资源的压力指数、状态指数、响应指数,揭示我国稀土贸易安全指数演变特征,进一步建立多元线性回归模型,识别我国稀土贸易安全的影响因素。研究发现:我国稀土资源贸易安全度在持续下降,亟需优化贸易结构,降低供应链风险;我国稀土资源贸易的驱动因素主要来源于市场需求牵引、资源禀赋优势以及产业有序供给;全球稀土产业分工格局、资源价值核算方法缺失,限制了我国稀土资源贸易可持续发展。在此基础上,提出通过健全稀土资源收储体系、建设再生稀土研发和回收网络等方式,保障战略性稀土资源供给安全;同时,整合稀土行业优势资源与优化稀土产业链及供应链,深度参与全球稀土供应链治理,为我国稀土资源开发利用与可持续发展提供决策依据。

基于电网线路传输安全的电力市场分布式交易模型研究

电力市场分布式交易模型可有效缓解传统集中模型下市场主体的隐私安全等问题,但难以在保障市场主体收益和电力系统安全稳定运行的同时,实现社会福利最大化.因此,基于电网线路传输安全,首先以社会福利最大化为目标,构建集中式交易模型,并采用拉格朗日乘子法和对偶定理,将其等价分解为各市场主体自身利益最大化的分布式交易模型.在此基础上,设计2种适用于不同情形的分布式交易方法及其求解算法,并构造电网安全成本影响市场主体的决策,从而保证电网线路传输安全.最后,基于算例分析,验证了2种交易方法的有效性.

排污权交易政策的减排效应研究——基于中国省级数据的实证检验

我国于2007年在12个省份推行排污权有偿使用和交易试点,为研究实践成效,本文将排污权交易试点政策视为一项准自然实验,基于2004—2021年30个省(区、市)的面板数据,使用倾向性匹配双重差分模型(PSM-DID)方法评估排污权交易试点政策的环境效应。研究结果表明:排污权交易制度对化学需氧量、氨氮和二氧化硫三类污染物的排放均发挥显著的抑制效应;基于经济发达程度进行的异质性检验的结果表明,在经济发展水平相对较高的地区,排污权交易对三类污染物的减排效应更为明显,环境污染程度也反作用影响排污权交易制度的实施效果,在环境污染程度相对较低的地区,更有利于发挥排污权交易政策的减排作用;稳健性检验发现,排污权交易试点政策发挥了同期“两控区”和排污费政策以外的环境效应。综上,排污权交易试点政策已取得显著的减排效果,政府部门应完善排污权交易政策制度,注重排污权交易制度的异质效应,加强全社会环境保护工作的宣传引导,构建全国范围内有效规范的排污权交易市场。