With the increasing number of quantitative models available to forecast the volatility of crude oil prices, the assessment of the relative performance of competing models becomes a critical task. Our survey of the lit...With the increasing number of quantitative models available to forecast the volatility of crude oil prices, the assessment of the relative performance of competing models becomes a critical task. Our survey of the literature revealed that most studies tend to use several performance criteria to evaluate the performance of competing forecasting models;however, models are compared to each other using a single criterion at a time, which often leads to different rankings for different criteria—A situation where one cannot make an informed decision as to which model performs best when taking all criteria into account. In order to overcome this methodological problem, Xu and Ouenniche [1] proposed a multidimensional framework based on an input-oriented radial super-efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to rank order competing forecasting models of crude oil prices’ volatility. However, their approach suffers from a number of issues. In this paper, we overcome such issues by proposing an alternative framework.展开更多
There is a false notion of existing available, abundant, and long lasting fuel energy in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries;with continual income return from its exports. This is not true as the sustainabili...There is a false notion of existing available, abundant, and long lasting fuel energy in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries;with continual income return from its exports. This is not true as the sustainability of this income is questionable. Energy problems started to appear, and can be intensified in coming years due to continuous growth of energy demands and consumptions. The demands already consume all produced Natural Gas (NG) in all GCC, except Qatar;and the NG is the needed fuel for Electric Power (EP) production. These countries have to import NG to run their EP plants. Fuel oil production can be locally consumed within two to three decades if the current rate of consumed energy prevails. The returns from selling the oil and natural gas are the main income to most of the GCC. While NG and oil can be used in EP plants, NG is cheaper, cleaner, and has less negative effects on the environment than fuel oil. Moreover, oil has much better usage than being burned in steam generators of steam power plants or combustion chambers of gas turbines. Introducing renewable energy or nuclear energy may be a necessity for the GCC to keep the flow of their main income from exporting oil. This paper reviews the GCC productions and consumptions of the prime energy (fuel oil and NG) and their role in electric power production. The paper shows that, NG should be the only fossil fuel used to run the power plants in the GCC. It also shows that the all GCC except Qatar, have to import NG. They should diversify the prime energy used in power plants;and consider alternative energy such as nuclear and renewable energy, (solar and wind) energy.展开更多
文摘With the increasing number of quantitative models available to forecast the volatility of crude oil prices, the assessment of the relative performance of competing models becomes a critical task. Our survey of the literature revealed that most studies tend to use several performance criteria to evaluate the performance of competing forecasting models;however, models are compared to each other using a single criterion at a time, which often leads to different rankings for different criteria—A situation where one cannot make an informed decision as to which model performs best when taking all criteria into account. In order to overcome this methodological problem, Xu and Ouenniche [1] proposed a multidimensional framework based on an input-oriented radial super-efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to rank order competing forecasting models of crude oil prices’ volatility. However, their approach suffers from a number of issues. In this paper, we overcome such issues by proposing an alternative framework.
文摘There is a false notion of existing available, abundant, and long lasting fuel energy in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries;with continual income return from its exports. This is not true as the sustainability of this income is questionable. Energy problems started to appear, and can be intensified in coming years due to continuous growth of energy demands and consumptions. The demands already consume all produced Natural Gas (NG) in all GCC, except Qatar;and the NG is the needed fuel for Electric Power (EP) production. These countries have to import NG to run their EP plants. Fuel oil production can be locally consumed within two to three decades if the current rate of consumed energy prevails. The returns from selling the oil and natural gas are the main income to most of the GCC. While NG and oil can be used in EP plants, NG is cheaper, cleaner, and has less negative effects on the environment than fuel oil. Moreover, oil has much better usage than being burned in steam generators of steam power plants or combustion chambers of gas turbines. Introducing renewable energy or nuclear energy may be a necessity for the GCC to keep the flow of their main income from exporting oil. This paper reviews the GCC productions and consumptions of the prime energy (fuel oil and NG) and their role in electric power production. The paper shows that, NG should be the only fossil fuel used to run the power plants in the GCC. It also shows that the all GCC except Qatar, have to import NG. They should diversify the prime energy used in power plants;and consider alternative energy such as nuclear and renewable energy, (solar and wind) energy.
