Public Perceptions of Cryosphere Change and the Selection of Adaptation Measures in the rmqi River Basin

This study focuses on the characters of public perceptions on climate and cryosphere change,which are based on a questionnaire survey in the(U|¨)r(u|¨)mqi River Basin.In comparison with scientific observation results of climate and cryosphere change,this paper analyzes the possible impact of the change on water resources and agriculture production in the area.Perceptions of most respondents on climate and cryosphere changes confirm the main objective facts.For the selection of adaptation measures addressing the shortage of water resource,the results are as follows:most people preferred to choose the measures like "policy change" and "basic facility construction" which are mostly implemented by the government and the policy-making department;some people showed more preference to the measures of avoiding unfavorable natural environment,such as finding job in or migrating to other places.The urgency of personal participation in the adaptation measures is still inadequate.Some adaptation measures should be implemented in line with local conditions and require the organic combination of "resource-development" with "water-saving".

Distinguishing the Effects of Cryosphere Change in the Background of Climate Change in China

Climate change has major impacts directly on the natural ecosystem and human society, of which the cryosphere is most easily affected be-cause of its frangibility and sensitivity. Similarly, cryosphere change has numerous impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society, which may resemble an indirect influence of climate change. These two types of impacts, in shared fields, are distinguished in space and time by effective mechanisms and processes. Climate change has positive and negative impacts on some systems, which may be adjusted by cryosphere change. These indirect and direct impacts may be distinguished, and then correct policies and measures can be made against these changes.

Reliability and Validity Test of Questionnaire on the Adaptation Strategy of Cryosphere Changes in Arid Inland River Basin

[Objective] The aim was to test the reliability and validity of questionnaire on the adaptation strategy of cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin. [Method] A questionnaire on 'the adaptation strategy of cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin' was carried out in Urumchi River basin and Aksu River basin, and its reliability and validity were tested by means of statistical method, so as to investigate the stability and accuracy of questionnaire. [Result] Reliability analysis of questionnaire showed that the split-half reliability coefficient of questionnaire in Urumchi River basin and Aksu River basin was 0.729 and 0.750, respectively, and Cronbach’s α reliability coefficient was 0.613 and 0.616, respectively, which revealed that the questionnaire had good equivalence and internal consistency which reflected good reliability and stability. According to validity analysis on questionnaire, there was significant correlation between the score of most questions and questionnaire, and it indicated that questionnaire had high content validity. There were 8 common factors collected from 26 questions, which were summarized as agricultural planting, agricultural water conservation, life satisfaction, cultivated land variation, social integration sense, climate and cryosphere changes, capital input improved by environment and family economic condition, respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution rate of various questions in corresponding indexes was higher, and reflected structure was in full accord with questionnaire content, which revealed that questionnaire owned good construct validity. [Conclusion] With higher stability and accuracy, the questionnaire could determine the desired topic and content and was suitable for the study on the perception of common people and choices of adaptive strategy under cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin in northwestern China.

Impact of glacier changes and permafrost distribution on debris flows in Badswat and Shishkat catchments,Northern Pakistan

Knowledge of glacier changes and associated hazards is of great importance for the safety consideration of the population and infrastructure in the mountainous regions of Upper Indus Basin(UIB).In this study,we assessed the variations in glacier velocity,glacier surface elevation change,meteorological conditions,and permafrost distribution in Badswat and Shishkat catchments located in UIB to access the potential impact on the occurrence of debris flow in both catchments.We find that the glacier surface velocity increased during the debris flow event in the Badswat catchment and the mean daily temperature was 3.7℃to 3.9℃higher in most of the locations.The enhanced glacier surface elevation lowering period coincide with the rise in temperature during spring and autumn months between 2015 to 2019 in Badswat catchment.The source region of debris flow falls within the lower boundary of permafrost occurrence zone and lies below the 0℃isotherm during late spring and summer months.In Shishkat catchment the 0℃isotherm reaches above the debris flow source area during August and the glacier do not show any significant variations in velocity and surface elevation change.The debris flow source area is adjacent to the slow-moving rock glacier in Shishkat catchment while in Badswat catchment the debris flow initiated from the former glacier moraine.Both catchments are largely glacierized and thus sensitive to changes in climatic conditions and changes in the cryosphere response possess significant threats to the population downstream.Continuous monitoring of cryosphere-climate change in the region can contribute toward the improvement of disaster risk reduction and mitigation policies.

Changes in the global cryosphere and their impacts:A review and new perspective

As one of the five components of Earth's climatic system,the cryosphere has been undergoing rapid shrinking due to global warming.Studies on the formation,evolution,distribution and dynamics of cryospheric components and their interactions with the human system are of increasing importance to society.In recent decades,the mass loss of glaciers,including the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets,has accelerated.The extent of sea ice and snow cover has been shrinking,and permafrost has been degrading.The main sustainable development goals in cryospheric regions have been impacted.The shrinking of the cryosphere results in sea-level rise,which is currently affecting,or is soon expected to affect,17 coastal megacities and some small island countries.In East Asia,South Asia and North America,climate anomalies are closely related to the extent of Arctic sea ice and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.Increasing freshwater melting from the ice sheets and sea ice may be one reason for the slowdown in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Arctic and Southern Oceans.The foundations of ports and infrastructure in the circum-Arctic permafrost regions suffer from the consequences of permafrost degradation.In high plateaus and mountainous regions,the cryosphere's shrinking has led to fluctuations in river runoff,caused water shortages and increased flooding risks in certain areas.These changes in cryospheric components have shown significant heterogeneity at different temporal and spatial scales.Our results suggest that the quantitative evaluation of future changes in the cryosphere still needs to be improved by enhancing existing observations and model simulations.Theoretical and methodological innovations are required to strengthen social economies'resilience to the impact of cryospheric change.

Modeling ocean wave propagation under sea ice covers

Operational ocean wave models need to work globally, yet current ocean wave models can only treat ice covered regions crudely. The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief overview of ice effects on wave propagation and different research methodology used in studying these effects. Based on its proximity to land or sea, sea ice can be classified as： landfast ice zone, shear zone, and the marginal ice zone. All ice covers attenuate wave energy. Only long swells can penetrate deep into an ice cover. Being closest to open water, wave propagation in the marginal ice zone is the most complex to model. The physical appearance of sea ice in the marginal ice zone varies. Grease ice, pancake ice, brash ice, floe aggregates, and continuous ice sheet may be found in this zone at different times and locations. These types of ice are formed under different thermalmechanical forcing. There are three classic models that describe wave propagation through an idealized ice cover： mass loading, thin elastic plate, and viscous layer models. From physi cal arguments we may conjecture that mass loading model is suitable for disjoint aggregates of ice floes much smaller than the wavelength, thin elastic plate model is suitable for a con tinuous ice sheet, and the viscous layer model is suitable for grease ice. For different sea ice types we may need different wave ice interaction models. A recently proposed viscoelas tic model is able to synthesize all three classic models into one. Under suitable limiting conditions it converges to the three previous models. The complete theoretical framework for evaluating wave propagation through various ice covers need to be implemented in the operational ocean wave models. In this review, we introduce the sea ice types, previous wave ice interaction models, wave attenuation mechanisms,the methods to calculate wave reflection and transmission between different ice covers, and the effect of ice floe breaking on shaping the sea ice morphology. Laboratory experiments, field measurements and numerical simulations supporting the fundamental research in waveice interaction models are discussed. We conclude with some outlook of future research needs in this field.