Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects ofChina's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application ofCMRCGE model

This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.

Economists’Judgement on China’s Socio-Economic Development in the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

2020 is the final year of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan period and an intersection between the“two centennial goals.”It is also a vital year for drafting the 14th Five-year Plan and embarking on a new journey of socialist modernization.What socio-economic progress has China achieved during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and what are the opportunities,challenges and countermeasures for the 14th Five-Year Plan period?In May 2020,the China Economist conducted a questionnaire survey among economists.Results suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,China has achieved remarkable progress in the following areas:significant socio-economic development,deepening industry-ICT integration,and rapid growth of new economy;mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation,and enhanced R&D capabilities for cutting-edge technologies;green production and the abatement of air and water pollution;and poverty reduction.In the 14th Five-Year Plan period,opportunities co-exist with challenges for China’s socio-economic development,which brims with resiliency.Surveyed economists felt sanguine about China’s development outlook.Based on the results,surveyed economists believed that the Chinese government should focus on the following priorities during the 14th Five-Year Plan period:expediting industrial transition,strengthening the real economy,and exploring domestic consumption potentials;ramping up research in fundamental science,and accelerating the research of critical technologies;increasing equal access to basic public services;and promoting green development in all respects,including green consumption,production,distribution,innovation,and finance.

China’s 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans:Review and Advice

The 13th Five-year Plan period ushered in a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics.During this period,China’s economy transitioned from rapid to high-quality growth and weathered the storms of the trade war with the United States and the COVID-19 outbreak.Chinese policymakers embraced new development concepts,and fought to cut overcapacity and excess inventory,deleverage,lower costs,and bolster weak areas under the theme of supply-side structural reforms.In fighting the three tough battles of major risk prevention,targeted poverty reduction and pollution abatement,China has largely resolved myriad structural contradictions and maintained rapid domestic economic growth and stability.Most targets for the 13th Five-year Plan period have been achieved ahead of time or are near completion on time.Institutional sophistication has bolstered high-quality development.

Development Trend of Energy and Key Points of Ecological Environment Protection in China's "14^(th) Five-Year Plan" Period

From the changes of total primary energy consumption and primary energy consumption structure,installed capacity and power generation of secondary energy(electricity),etc.,the development characteristics of China's energy structure in the"13^(th) Five-Year Plan"period was comprehensively studied.Combined with the complexity of the international situation,the diversification of the domestic energy system,the intelligence of the energy industry,etc.,the situation and challenges faced by China's energy development were deeply discussed in the four aspects of energy security,energy low-carbon transformation,energy system efficiency,and energy technology level.From the angle of ecological environment protection,the development of energy in the"14^(th) Five-Year Plan"period in China was analyzed,and some policies and measures were put forward.

China＇s Industries in the Beginning of Its 12th Five-Year Plan Period

Complex international and domestic economic scenarios and the short cyclical nature of macroeconomic policies characterizes the beginning year of the 12th Five- Year Plan period, it reflects the difficult policy choices that arise among three major regulatory targets ,for growth, structure, and prices. In the transitional period of intertwined challenges, a spirit of commitment and dedication to real industries will allow China to occupy vantage points in world manufacturing and become an industrial power in the real sense. To a certain extent the beginning year of the 12th Five-Year Plan period （2011-2015）, while.fraught with challenges and pain, marks a departure from cutthroat competition to quality growth for Chinese enterprises and entrepreneurs. From 2012, China＇s industrial and market economic systems will both head towards more sophisticated stages of development. China ＂s industries will develop along environmentally sustainable, delicate, high-end, IT-based and service-oriented paths, while expediting the country＇s economic restructuring, industrial upgrade capabilities and its pursuit of innovative industrialization, and it will do so with strides more remarkable than ever before in its history.

China’s Rural Development in the 14^(th) Five-Year Plan Period

The 14^(th) Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025)is a critical transition for China’s social and economic development.After achieving moderate prosperity and eradicating absolute poverty in 2020,China will embark upon a new journey towards an affluent society with rural revitalization replacing poverty eradication as a new priority of government agenda on agriculture and rural affairs.In the 14^(th) FYP period,China should increase rural prosperity in all respects,modernize agriculture and the countryside,address food security challenges,raise farmers’incomes,and roll out rural reforms.

Minister on 9th Five-Year Plan of China's Chemical Industry

At the beginning of 1995, Gu Xiulian, Minister of the Chemical Industry, gave a briefing to the media on the newly-drafted 9th Five-Year Plan(1996-2000) for China’s chemical industry. She said that unlike the past development plans under the planned economy system, the new plan orients the product mix, industry structure, enterprise structure and regional distribution to the needs of the domestic and world markets, and co-ordinates the development of state-

Ten Focal Problems inthe 10th Five-Year Power Plan

In view of that the average electricity consumption per capita is still rather low in China, this paper putsforward ten focal problems in the 10th Five-year Power Plan, including optimized allocation of power sources and powernetworks, environmental protection in coal-fired power plants, as well as localization of power equipment, etc.

Towards carbon neutrality and China's 14th Five-Year Plan: Clean energy transition, sustainable urban development, and investment priorities

China's 14th Five-Year Plan,for the period 2021e25,presents a real opportunity for China to link its longterm climate goals with its short-to medium-term social and economic development plans.China's recent commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 has set a clear direction for its economy,but requires ratcheting up ambition on its near-term climate policy.Against this background,this paper discusses major action areas for China's 14th Five-Year Plan after COVID-19,especially focusing on three aspects:the energy transition,a new type of sustainable urban development,and investment priorities.China's role in the world is now of a magnitude that makes its actions in the immediate future critical to how the world goes forward.This decade,2021e2030,is of fundamental importance to human history.If society locks in dirty and high-carbon capital,it raises profound risks of irreversible damage to the world's climate.It is crucial for China to peak its emissions in the 14th Five-Year Plan(by 2025),making the transition earlier and cheaper,enhancing its international competitiveness in growing new markets and setting a strong example for the world.The benefits for China and the world as a whole could be immense.

Vehicle emissions of primary air pollutants from 2009 to 2019 and projection for the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing, China

Over the past decade,the emission standards and fuel standards in Beijing have been upgraded twice,and the vehicle structure has been improved by accelerating the elimination of 2.95 million old vehicles.Through the formulation and implementation of these policies,the emissions of carbon monoxide(CO),volatile organic compounds(VOCs),nitrogen oxides(NO_(x)),and fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))in 2019 were 147.9,25.3,43.4,and 0.91 kton in Beijing,respectively.The emission factor method was adopted to better understand the emissions characteristics of primary air pollutants from combustion engine vehicles and to improve pollution control.In combination with the air quality improvement goals and the status of social and economic development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing,different vehicle pollution control scenarios were established,and emissions reductions were projected.The results show that the emissions of four air pollutants(CO,VOCs,NO_(x),and PM_(2.5))fromvehicles in Beijing decreased by an average of 68% in 2019,compared to their levels in 2009.The contribution of NOx emissions from diesel vehicles increased from 35% in 2009 to 56% in 2019,which indicated that clean and energy-saving diesel vehicle fleets should be further improved.Electric vehicle adoption could be an important measure to reduce pollutant emissions.With the further upgrading of vehicle structure and the adoption of electric vehicles,it is expected that the total emissions of the four vehicle pollutants can be reduced by 20%-41% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

Major problems with service industry development in China and suggestions for the thirteenth five-year plan

This paper analyzes the roots and nature of problems in China’s service industry development.Given the background of a changing environment for the service industry,the author raises several policy suggestions for growing the industry during the 13th five-year plan period:encouraging a strategy that shifts priority from manufacturing industry to the service industry;strenthening research on strategy,plan and policy about the development of service industry;providing stronger policy support for clustering in the service industry;and actively implementing pilot and demonstration projects for institutional and systemic reform of the service industry,and strengthening human resource training and development to firm up industrial foundation.

Auto Industry Review of the 8th Five-Year Plan Period

Ⅰ. Input Strengthened With nearly about 58.8 billion Rmb put into the fixed assets, the 8th Five-Year Plan period has witnessed the biggest investment increase ever seen in the history of China auto industry with much greater investment strength and concentration. While ensuring smooth implementation and completion of the key projects for heavy and light vehicles, which covered the 7th and 8th Five-Year Plan periods,

“十三五”我国蔗糖产业现状及“十四五”发展趋势

蔗糖是我国重要的农产品,是食品行业中不可以替代的重要原料,蔗糖产业的高质量发展关系到我国食糖的供给安全。“十三五”期间,我国通过甘蔗生产基地建设,有力推动了蔗糖生产的良种化、规模化、机械化和水利化发展,蔗糖产业发展成效显著。“十四五”期间,在新的发展阶段,蔗糖产业要紧紧围绕高质量发展的目标,窂固树立创新、绿色、协调、开放、共享的新发展理念,重点推进现代高效甘蔗生产基地建设,加快推广自育甘蔗品种和糖料蔗全程机械化生产,实行绿色高效生产,建设区域布局合理、基础设施完善、生产装备先进、产业优势突出的现代化生产基地,巩固提升甘蔗供给能力,促进农民增收,保障国家食糖供给安全。

带状发展:“十三五”中国文化产业发展新趋势

"十三五"是中国文化产业发展的重要拐点,带状发展成为中国现阶段文化产业发展的新趋势。在带状发展的空间布局下,我国的文化产业必将走向国际市场,丰富国内市场,提升产品升级换代,出现历史性跨越发展和几何级数倍增的新特点;而大数据时代的到来势必要求我们做好顶层设计和规划,实现大数据分析、决策、定位和拓展。在这个过程中,必须突破现行行政区划限制、突破产业门类分割、突破市场壁垒束缚、突破管理体制制约,最终使中国的文化产业发展形成统一市场、统一标准、统一国民待遇的公平竞争大格局。

Application of AERMOD on near future air quality simulation under the latest national emission control policy of China: A case study on an industrial city

Air quality model can be an adequate tool for future air quality prediction, also atmospheric observations supporting and emission control strategies responders. The influence of emission control policy （emission reduction targets in the national ＂China＇s 12th Five-Year Plan （2011-2015）＂） on the air quality in the near future over an important industrial city of China, Xuanwei in Yunnan Province, was studied by applying the AERMOD modeling system. First, our analysis demonstrated that the AERMOD modeling system could be used in the air quality simulation in the near future for SO2 and NOx under average meteorology but not for PM10. Second, after evaluating the simulation results in 2008 and 2015, ambient concentration of SO2, NOx and PM10 （only 2008） were all centered in the middle of simulation area where the emission sources concentrated, and it is probably because the air pollutions were source oriented. Last but not least, a better air quality condition will happen under the hypothesis that the average meteorological data can be used in near future simulation. However, there are still heavy polluted areas where ambient concentrations will exceed the air quality standard in near future. In spatial allocation, reduction effect of SO2 is more significant than NOx in 2015 as the contribution of SO2 from industry is more than NOx. These results inspired the regulatory applications of AERMOD modeling system in evaluating environmental pollutant control policy

“十四五”时期重载铁路安全文化建设

为促进安全文化建设,减少事故发生,分析新形势变化,并结合重载铁路特点,探究重载铁路的安全文化建设模式。分析“十四五”时期安全生产工作面临的挑战,明确重载铁路安全文化建设存在的主要问题,提出重载铁路安全文化建设“八大原则”;根据安全文化示范企业的5个共性特质,建立基于明确的安全理念、有效的安全教育培训、完善的安全管理制度、全员参与安全、良好的安全行为的重载铁路安全文化建设模式。结果表明:提出的重载铁路“八大原则”和安全文化建设模式,有助于提升铁路安全管理水平,并为安全文化建设工作提供借鉴。

“十四五”发展新趋势与产业园区规划环评工作应对建议

分析了“十四五”我国区域发展战略、产业发展方式、规划体系构架、环境管理体系及环境形势发展新趋势,及其变化对园区规划环评提出的新要求,从优化管理策略、拓展规划环评功能、夯实技术支撑等方面,提出园区规划环评工作应对建议。

中国石化打造世界领先洁净能源化工公司的实践与思考

“十三五”期间,中国石化在勘探、开发、炼化、销售、科技等领域发展取得较好成绩。“十四五”时期,我国经济社会进入新发展阶段,全球政治经济环境面临的不确定性日益增多。能源消费在碳中和约束及技术成本双重驱动下将迎来临界点,转型动力进一步增强,进程进一步加快,能源化工产业在新时期将延续改革与竞争的主题。“十四五”时期,中国石化将把握大势、服务大局,全面实施世界领先发展方略,紧扣“打造世界领先洁净能源化工公司”远景目标,加快构建以能源资源为基础,以洁净油品和现代化工为两翼,以新能源、新材料、新经济为重要增长极的“一基两翼三新”产业格局,为全面建设社会主义现代化国家做出新贡献。

中国海油“十四五”高质量发展战略思考

“十三五”期间,我国油气产业快速发展,原油产量基本稳定,天然气产量快速增长,基础设施不断完善,油气供应保障能力提升,海外勘探开发取得进展,权益油气产量明显增长,油气体制改革持续推进,市场开放不断扩大;但也存在着国内原油产量增长乏力、油气进口依存度持续上升、炼油产能明显过剩等问题。“十四五”时期,国际环境不确定性增强,我国将着力构建“双循环”新发展格局。能源转型加速,油气供应总体宽松,油气体制改革深入推进,市场更加开放,行业竞争更多元化。中国海油“十三五”在国内油气增储上产、降本增效、科技攻关、数字化转型、深化改革等方面取得了显著成效;“十四五”将牢固树立总体国家安全观,加大勘探开发力度,积极推进“一带一路”合作,优化油气产业链,坚持创新驱动和绿色转型,保障国家油气产业链供应链安全,实现企业在新时期的高质量发展。