Sovereign default network and currency risk premia

We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,degree,betweenness,closeness,and eigenvector centralities,to detect whether network properties drive the currency risk premia.We observe that closeness and betweenness centralities can negatively drive currency excess returns but do not exhibit a relationship with forward spread.Thus,our developed network centralities are independent of an unconditional carry trade risk factor.Based on our findings,we develop a trading strategy by taking a long position on peripheral countries’currencies and a short position on core coun-tries’currencies.The aforementioned strategy generates a higher Sharpe ratio than the currency momentum strategy.Our proposed strategy is robust to foreign exchange regimes and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

The Risk Management of Companies From Timis County Involved in International Business

Rapid internationalization of economic activities following the Second World War has generated an unprecedented increase in international trade and capital flows. For example, only during 1963-1993, exports rose from 157 billion to 3.774 billion dollars. Also the flows of foreign direct investment （FDI） have grown exponentially. Although FDI flows are concentrated on developing countries, 80% being targeted towards 10 countries, capital flows towards the Third World have quadrupled only between 1990 and 1993. This trend towards a truly international economy influences also on how companies do business. International business environment provides many opportunities, as well as threats. Romanian companies need to align to this trend. In addition to identifying new opportunities to do business in foreign markets, they have to deal with specific risks, which they did not have to face when working internally. In this context, we consider necessary to launch an investigation, whose main objective would be analyzing the manner in which Romanian companies manage risks specific to international economic affairs. As the complexity of these businesses is great, and the majority of Romanian companies, in their attempt to internationalize, use classical forms of export-import, the analysis took into account only the export activity undertaken by Romanian companies. We mention that we did not take into account the determination of the exposure to these risks of the companies concerned, but an analysis of the management of those risks. For this analysis, data were collected based on the administration of a questionnaire, and these data were used to develop an econometric model analysis. The specific methods of risk analysis of specific export transactions are then interpreted using the GLOBE model.

Ruin probabilities with random rates of interest

A model was proposed for addressing investment risk of the flee reserve in the form of credit or currency risk. This risk was expressed by a constant amount K （ e. g., securitization） upon an interest-increasing event and a random variable Z representing the recovery rate of a bond or a devaluation factor. The model equation is an integro-differential equation with deviating arguments. The analytical solutions were obtained for the probability of survival as Z is a discrete random variable and as Z is a continuous random variable respectively.

Multinational Companies'Hedging Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Risk:A Quantitative Comparison Study

To investigate hedging effectiveness of multinational companies in respect of using currency derivatives,the author adapts an innovative and multi layers GJR-GARCH-based model.This model broke down the currency risk faced by MNCs in each business area and added six control variables other than foreign sales ratio,all these variables have been proved to be related to MNCs'currency risk exposure but was not included into previous models.Moreover,this model absorbs advantages of several models built in previous studies and combines them into a whole,intact model.This paper also employed a wide research scope,using a sample of 48 non-financial and 28 financial firms headquartered in USA.Also,comparison between financial and non-financial firms is an innovation of our research.According to the result,hedging of non-financial companies in respect of currency risk is ineffective,and financial companies are more likely using currency derivatives to speculate.