Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean...Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed.展开更多
A three-dimensional baroclinic numerical forecasting model for anomaly current field is developed forapplication in the Bohai Sea and the upper layer of the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea. All the dynamical varia...A three-dimensional baroclinic numerical forecasting model for anomaly current field is developed forapplication in the Bohai Sea and the upper layer of the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea. All the dynamical variables, including temperature and salinity, can be calculated predictively by using the model. The results of the numerical weather prediction are used as input fields,and various dynamic and thermodynamic boundary conditions areadopted. So, the model can be used as an operational numerical forecasting model for current fields. In this paper,the structure of the model is presented in detail, various tests for the performance of the model are made, and thedependence of the model on some parameters is discussed. The results of the numerical simulation using historicaldata and experimental forecasting tests are also presented.展开更多
合环电流评估技术对于配电网馈线合环转供电操作具有重要意义,为了提高主动配电网馈线合环电流计算的准确性,文中从融入源荷数据分布特性及预测的角度,提出基于双重K2算法和概率潮流(double K2 algorithm and probability load flow,DK2...合环电流评估技术对于配电网馈线合环转供电操作具有重要意义,为了提高主动配电网馈线合环电流计算的准确性,文中从融入源荷数据分布特性及预测的角度,提出基于双重K2算法和概率潮流(double K2 algorithm and probability load flow,DK2-PLF)的主动配电网馈线合环电流评估方法。首先,采用基于DK2算法的贝叶斯网络描述源荷相关性样本;其次,利用Cholesky分解方法处理获得的源荷相关性样本,以半不变量法计算主动配电网馈线合环电流的累积概率分布;然后,对主动配电网馈线合环电流从合环成功率和越限程度两方面进行安全性评估;最后,以贵州某城市为算例,对10 kV配电网系统开展馈线合环电流评估研究。得出以下结论:一是从概率密度、累积分布、最大误差三方面比较,相比于K2算法,DK2算法源荷预测值的概率密度、累积分布误差较小,验证了DK2算法的优越性;二是从累积分布、最大误差两方面比较,采用Cholesky分解的半不变量法对比未采用Cholesky分解的半不变量法、蒙特卡洛法,其累积分布误差较小,采用Cholesky分解的半不变量法满足主动配电网馈线合环电流评估要求;三是从合环成功率、合环越限程度两方面比较,采用半不变量法计算的合环电流安全性指标结果与仿真结果偏差在电网经验误差5%范围内,说明基于DK2-PLF的主动配电网馈线合环电流评估方法可为合环辅助决策提供参考。展开更多
文摘Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed.
文摘A three-dimensional baroclinic numerical forecasting model for anomaly current field is developed forapplication in the Bohai Sea and the upper layer of the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea. All the dynamical variables, including temperature and salinity, can be calculated predictively by using the model. The results of the numerical weather prediction are used as input fields,and various dynamic and thermodynamic boundary conditions areadopted. So, the model can be used as an operational numerical forecasting model for current fields. In this paper,the structure of the model is presented in detail, various tests for the performance of the model are made, and thedependence of the model on some parameters is discussed. The results of the numerical simulation using historicaldata and experimental forecasting tests are also presented.
文摘合环电流评估技术对于配电网馈线合环转供电操作具有重要意义,为了提高主动配电网馈线合环电流计算的准确性,文中从融入源荷数据分布特性及预测的角度,提出基于双重K2算法和概率潮流(double K2 algorithm and probability load flow,DK2-PLF)的主动配电网馈线合环电流评估方法。首先,采用基于DK2算法的贝叶斯网络描述源荷相关性样本;其次,利用Cholesky分解方法处理获得的源荷相关性样本,以半不变量法计算主动配电网馈线合环电流的累积概率分布;然后,对主动配电网馈线合环电流从合环成功率和越限程度两方面进行安全性评估;最后,以贵州某城市为算例,对10 kV配电网系统开展馈线合环电流评估研究。得出以下结论:一是从概率密度、累积分布、最大误差三方面比较,相比于K2算法,DK2算法源荷预测值的概率密度、累积分布误差较小,验证了DK2算法的优越性;二是从累积分布、最大误差两方面比较,采用Cholesky分解的半不变量法对比未采用Cholesky分解的半不变量法、蒙特卡洛法,其累积分布误差较小,采用Cholesky分解的半不变量法满足主动配电网馈线合环电流评估要求;三是从合环成功率、合环越限程度两方面比较,采用半不变量法计算的合环电流安全性指标结果与仿真结果偏差在电网经验误差5%范围内,说明基于DK2-PLF的主动配电网馈线合环电流评估方法可为合环辅助决策提供参考。
